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Fed Cat Bounce
Investors, or perhaps algos, it appears are shocked that the Fed is just as dovish as it has always been (despite endless speeches since Yellen's six month comment - but will not tapering the taper) and today's minutes sparked a short-squeeze loaded VIX-slamming jerk higher to get the Dow back to unchanged from the FOMC statement (S&P back to unch on the month and Nasdaq back to unch on the year). Bond yields ripped lower (the best FOMC minutes day since the Fed announced QE3 expectations) with the short-end outperforming (unwinding only 50% of the flattening post-FOMC) and long-end selling off. Gold and silver had been fading early but rallied on the FOMC minutes (back above $1310). Oil pushed on to $103.50 and copper rallied back to unch (supported by PBOC buying rumors). Credit markets were diverging notably before the FOMC jerk but remain wider on the week. Just as the initial squeeze euphoria ("most shorted" stocks had their best day in 2 months) was fading, the 330 Ramp in JPY occurred and lifted stocks to the highs of the day.
- Biotechs +4% - best day in 12 months
- VIX -8% - biggest drop a month (2 day -12%)
- "Most Shorted" +2.1% - stocks best day in 2 months
- FB +7% (but rest of momos only smaller gains)
- Nasdaq +1.7% (best in 4 weeks) and back above its 100DMA
Right on time - 330RAMP CAPITAL showed up to try and keep the momentum...
As AUDJPY ruled the market once again...
The S&P did not make it back to unch from the FOMC (but the Dow and Trannies did)...
Nasdaq is back in the green for 2014...(and Russell very close)
Momo high growth high multiple names bounced but remains down between 10 and 18% from the FOMC...
As "most shorted" names rallied the most...
VIX cracked 0.5 vols instantly and broke below 14 - but was notably less exuberant about the late day surge...
Today was the "most shorted" names best day in 2 months
The short-end of the bond curve rallied the most today as the entire complex jerked lower in yields.
This steepened the curve but only retraces half the major flattening that occurred...
Credit markets were widening notably this morning but were snapped tighter on the FOMC minutes. It looks like the 330 ramp squeezed the last of the credit shorts back to unch on the week...
Commodities all rallied post FOMC...
We leave it to Bill Miller (yes that Bill Miller) to end today's market update...
"the conditions for a bad market don't exist"
Trade accordingly...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: "Growth" has retraced only 25% of its relative underperformance to "Value" since the FOMC...
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We're saved!
I think the big issue here is trading on what the Fed is saying rather than what the Fed is doing. The market is the Alamo, they will never give it up or let it fall until the end. It will continue going sky high until the system it's based upon breaks.
I disagree. The last line is bonds and they will sink the market to save them.
If they keep burning the dollar at the fiat alter of shame then no one will notice. Well, the poor will notice, but who cares about them? Right Janet?
THE response to credit bubbles is inflation. It's written in the Oligarch Handbook, right before the section on fucking your cousin.
Throw a dart. They're all going up.
- Bill Miller
Saw that too.
Considering the FED's ritual sacrifice of Main Street on the altar of Wall Street he's probably right.
BTFATH - same as always.
Exactly correct, the stock market performs exactly as designed. The corruption is The Fed. The Fed creates the bubbles and the fools gave them more regulatory power through Dodd-Frank. This is all a charade to keep the 99.9% from killing the crony politicians.
And the multiple expansion continues, simply because the FED doesn't have a clue, and keeps changing its mind, well that or lieing alot
Dear Algos...THEY ARE NOT TAPERING THE TAPER! Jesus
I guess they don't pass copies of "The Emporer's New Clothes" or "Catch-22" around trading desks.
C'mon. Traders are illiterate button pushing monkeys. Everyone knows that.
People trying to short this market crack me up. They remind me of Charlie Brown trying to kick the football while Lucy is holding it. Come on Chuck I promise you I'll let you kick it. They fall for the BernakenYellen's trick every time.
Until Charlie kicks Lucy in the head.
I never saw that one, which year did it come out?
2008 Nov 2
No need to pay attention anymore. The machine has it all under control. The dip days are just for sport.
I feel like I'm watching somebody play Cookie-Clicker. Meaningless, but the numbers keep going up and up and up. No point, just MOAR. Perfect game for our times.
Is the "Fed cat" Yellen's pussy? Rank!
Yellen and pussy should not be used in the same sentence, I feel like throwing up.
Yellen's acidic dark pool.
*That's misogynist!
I think I just puked a little in my mouth
Plus it is bouncing.
Eek.
I do pity her Gynecologist.
Bernanke's legacy, the man who destroyed markets, the dollar and USA
That was actually Keynes --> Nixon. Then Greenspan. Bernanke just carried their torch.
The algos, down in the deepest lines of the code, have this snippet that says "we can't HFT 80 million years of oil formation underground".
All aboard the BTFD.
Never underestimate the depth of resolve of the 0.1% elite when it comes to preserving their wealth and their way of life. Those cocksvckers would stomp on the corpses of the middle class to ensure another day of privilege for themselves.
FedFUBAR.
Eventually FED will own 100% of all Treasuries. And the American People will own trillions of USD that are wrth nothing.. That's it.
I have an idea, we make those American people buy aforementioned treasuries. We tell them that it is a guaranteed profit. Tell them how its a no risk great investment and they cant lose so buy them, to uh.. secure their retirement or something like that . We can give it a cool, hip name like myRA.
Lies are so easy to tell these days.
Getting close to $18 Trillion lies: http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Classic "baffle them with bullshit" at work here. When your airplane is in an inverted spin and you don't know how to recover, the only option is to cover the instrument panel so no one one will ever be able to know what's going on until the "splat."
...........thanks for the advice Abe..........
couldn't passover getting long or writing the following - it's part homage to mel brooks, part gratitude to one of my favorite leading indicators, and thanks to our new fed chairperson
what do you say
you must be learning
ya saved the bulls today
you made it done,
a fait accompli
a jew from brooklyn
just set us free
it was just a flash thought
a fact i did contemplatewhat the struggling market
had been missing to date
conspicuously absent
was any help from zionalthough I’m sure it’s not
for any lack of gods' tryin
but, u know what they say
& it just might be true they're good with moneyknow business and fair value so, like Moses before ya
his people he led
u didn't pass us over, &
got the spx out of the red
So more confirmation that the Fed is the market. Not commerce, not sales, not demand, not capitalism in any form.
Just a gang of fucks trying to enrich as many of thier tribe as possible. If the rules of the game say the game is failing, they change them until it looks like they are winning. Mark to market, GAAP, GDP, PMI, earnings, Employment, all manipulated and completely worthless.
The only thing that stops those with no remorse is death. DEATH TO THE MONEY CHANGERS!!!
Sick fucking world, what a depressing time to live.
Just cashed out more of my I.R.A. to pay the bills.
Joked with the Gal on the phone that she'd better hold back the 10% I.R.S. penalty because they needed my tax dollars to send to Ukraine.
She laughed, in an understanding way.
5%. there's that threshold again. works every time.
Of course, the market and bears in particular are jumpy. Over the last several years a pattern of a random statements from the Fed and several other sources have caused crazy and illogical rallies. An unholy alliance of the Federal Reserve, the government, and the too big to fail has left those of us who question the validity of the recovery in a precarious position.
For the big boys, its insider information and computer trading, this includes computing patterns that exploit where stops are placed, this improves their ability to wash the timid and weak bears out of their positions in this manipulated market. More on why a trap should be expected in the article below. The good news is someday it won't work and the light of truth will show through.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/04/bears-have-little-reason-for-conf...
do dead doves bounce?