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FOMC Minutes Confirms "Forecasts Overstate Rate Rise Pace"
With all eyes fixed on any mention of the length of time post-taper before rate hikes, stocks and bonds slid gently in the last few minutes before the minutes release - and sure enough...
- *SEVERAL FED OFFICIALS SAID FORECASTS OVERSTATED RATE RISE PACE
In other words, we are way more dovish than you thought we were... Weather was blamed for any slowdown and the pace of tapering appears set. Bear in mind these minutes reflect a discussion that took place - at least from a chronological standpoint - before Janet Yellen's "six months" statement.
Pre-FOMC: S&P Futs 1852.75, 10Y 2.717%, Gold $1304
Here is the key fragment:
A few participants suggested that new language along these lines could instead be introduced when the first increase in the federal funds rate had drawn closer or after the Committee had further discussed the reasons for anticipating a relatively low federal funds rate during the period of policy firming. A number of participants noted the overall upward shift since December in participants’ projections of the federal funds rate included in the March SEP, with some expressing concern that this component of the SEP could be misconstrued as indicating a move by the Committee to a less accommodative reaction function. However, several participants noted that the increase in the median projection overstated the shift in the projections. In addition, a number of participants observed that an upward shift was arguably warranted by the improvement in participants’ outlooks for the labor market since December and therefore need not be viewed as signifying a less accommodative reaction function. Most participants favored providing an explicit indication in the statement that the new forward guidance, taken as a whole, did not imply a change in the Committee’s policy intentions, on the grounds that such an indication could help forestall misinterpretation of the new forward guidance.
So is "several" less than or more than 6 months? Of course, these are Fed forecasts. Which are always wrong anyway. Which incidentally was confirmed by the death of forward guidance. This is what the Fed had to say about that:
Almost all participants agreed that it was appropriate at this meeting to update the forward guidance, in part because the unemployment rate was seen as likely to fall below its 6½ percent threshold value before before long. Most participants preferred replacing the numerical thresholds with a qualitative description of the factors that would influence the Committee’s decision to begin raising the federal funds rate. One participant, however, favored retaining the existing threshold language on the grounds that removing it before the unemployment rate reached 6½ percent could be misinterpreted as a signal that the path of policy going forward would be less accommodative. Another participant favored introducing new quantitative thresholds of 5½ percent for the unemployment rate and 2¼ percent for projected inflation. A few participants proposed adding new language in which the Committee would indicate its willingness to keep rates low if projected inflation remained persistently below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective; these participants suggested that the inclusion of this quantitative element in the forward guidance would demonstrate the Committee’s commitment to defend its inflation objective from below as well as from above.
Either way, stocks love it as the Fed has just given the go ahead to reflate the bubble some more.
Full minutes:
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QE infinity times infinity
Can you imagine what will happen the first time the fed says its time to stop QE and start raising rates?
I've dreamt about that.
Happy hour at Scores?
Sapphire
Will this have any effect on Russian Gas?
BTW -- I know this is Old-School shit, but ES just hit its high Pivot Point level (1860) for the day.
Speaking of old school this is how I picture equities view Zirp 4eva
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byb_FfxA8hs
So when they said 6 months, it really means whatever length of time is needed to keep the stock market going up?
New Math FTMFW.
Fedspeak isn't smart, it is sounding smart without saying anything. Janet made the mistake of actually saying something.
pods
it looked like she said 6 months to the untrained eye. To someone really paying attention she said
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRcaSIMxfYg
Yup.
No rates for savers, just ZIRP for Wall Street.
Dogs and cats, living together...MASS HYSTERIA!
Look at that move gold is making!
If you squint hard, you can sorta see it.
They can't say it because they can't do it, now if rates do rise, it will be because of the mkt pressure for rates to rise.
Rally on! Thank you overloards, your humble servant for life! You give us one last opportunity to make money via your excellent guidance and words!
How a bout some interest for old people you fucking cunt
Old people are expendable bro....solyent green is people! Duh.
The fed minutes concluded with the sentence "hahaha look how dovish we are and silver will probably continue to be a pile of shit".
I don't know about that, my ounces still look just as good as they always have.
That's what she said.
they maybe laughing but so am i...
just pressed the place order button over at APmex for some very pretty 10oz Sunshine Minting Silver bars...
5g's less debt coupon dollars...
250 more oz's of real money...
yeah, the MoneyChangers are some funny sociopaths aint they...
Unless it's silver mined and owned by Hecla. Up 5% so far today.
The next thing they will be blaming the nice spring weather.
nope. the next excuse is the non inflationary inflation (the soaring costs of energy and food).
Tapering? I call bullshit, show me that balacne sheet motherfucker.
there has been a whole other level of stealth qe for the past forty years. the balance sheet is just the shit the public is told about.
I would like to hear more about this if you would be so inclined.
A good place to start would be how Belgium just bought a metric asston of treasuries.
It is the same problem the dope dealers have. Where to hide the money so it isn't seen.
pods
Straight lines do not occur in nature.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^TNX+Interactive#symbol=^TNX;range=my
link broken, copy paste. it is a long story. the year was 1987 when it started...
by my math we have about 10 more years before tshtf
this place will be a virtual graveyard, and a literal one.
Link still worked. Seems rather obvious now. Thanks!
More banker suicides? I look forward to it. I have my bottle of hand lotion ready to go.
This outta slow you down tiger:
Janet Yellen having a Marilyn Monroe-dress-over-the-vent moment, commando.
pods
If the weather truly caused things then it should be all signals go for tightening.
The eCONomy is still in recession - buy stocks!!
Stocks are moving higher after the FOMC minutes.
Gartman to announce he's 100% bullish in 4..3..2..1...
Yellen's a fan of big black cocks, so don't expect tightening any time soon
The "market" is retarded.
Words divined from the Witches mouth.
BTFD
zirp forever. how can it ever be stopped and the USA remain a nation?
What is the Fed soooooooooooooooooo afraid of? Maybe nothing is fixed and it's worse than ever before?
How can nothing be fixed when they've printed so much money? /sarc/
Lying through their teeth and admitting it.
Let's see the 1/2 life of this move. There's nothing but the same gibberish in that statement. No signs of continued/increased easing are mentioned, and earnings are shit.
Yellen is similar to a granny that would spike her brakes if she thought the fully loaded B-train behind her was following to close, seemed like a good idea at the time to her.
It's almost as if they manipulated the taper talk to drive a sell off (for their insider friends) and they today come out to say, "DONT WORRY WE ALWAYS GOT YOUR BACK SPECULATORS". The DOW has skyrocketed since these minutes came out.
Of course, *we* know that QE4EVA.....but the HFT crack addicts don't because they are too blinded by the billions they steal every year.
almost? lulz
whatever they said it gave the paper PM's a slight jolt. The monkeys will be hammering forthwith in 3...2...1...
Nope...looks like PMs got wood this time ;o)
it's gotta be a head-fake from the EE (Evil Empire)...or they're surfing porn and forgot to smash the sell button.
The goal is to keep markets up - helps the banksters to stay alive.
So the Fed has a 4T balance sheet. They'll make it 100T with giving a flying fuck.
And Barry has his head up his ass clapping proudly. This is a fucking nightmare!!!!!!!!!!
THE USA has become Japan.
Senior citizens love being forced into equities.
wtf? Gold is actually UP now?
https://ounce.me/
I can understand silver and platinum being down. Those are industrial metals, and our industry is kinda not doing well. Why would we need platinum? For catalysts? That sounds like some kind of consumer good that nobody can afford at this time.
That didn't last long...all you had to do is just wait a bit. No it's not up. The Dominatrix in charge of Fed will continue to whip the shit out of gold each morning if she can help it. She also has friends, mind you. Gold just has sympathizers and believers. :-)
:cue rally monkey:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmfE4KAZicY
Look at poor Gold... it tried with all it's might to get a nice post-FOMC hard-on annnnnd it didn't happen... back to being the soft metal that it is. Beatdowns resume. Manipulators raise a toast.
Dollar is down, stocks up, can't walk and chew shitgums at the same time.
We have become a circus, run by courrpt, arrogant Jewsih Bankers. End this charde Putin, we want then destroyed.
The Russians can ask Germany and the Europeans to pay gas in gold. Force the US Fed to cover it's gold naked shorts and buy on the open market to payback Germany,
That would be a real game changer. Instantly the Fed shows it's ponzi.
The Tylers demonstrate their naivety with "Bear in mind these minutes reflect a discussion that took place - at least from a chronological standpoint - before Janet Yellen's "six months" statement."
These minutes are just another communication tool to move the market.
Rates will never go higher.. they can't afford to.
You are half right - "they can't afford to"
However rates will rise... just as soon as the US loses its strangehold on the world's reserve currency status.
And that day is only getting closer...
Bank Rossiya is being pushed in that direction by sanctions and has suspended FX operations and changed their logo to a gold ruble...
And China has their own credible and now almost 12 year old rival to the visa/mastercard hegemony - union pay...
Yee-Haw... Them stop runnin sons of beaches! In tact so far but eyes starting to bleed. Bastages!
"We anticipate that rates will stay at 0.000000000000% for at least another 6 trillion years. Even though the sun will be a black hole by then, you can bet that free money will still reign as the sun swallows the earth."
If the Fed buys everything the Treasury prints it doesn't matter so much where interest rates are at, at least from a .gov perspective. Fed pays back the Treasury anything above operating costs.
So the Minutes were "fixed" to rally the Market. It also appears that "some" people knew about this as the Mo Mo stocks started to rise before the Minutes.
can you say detaper
WTF ... our "forecasts" which are always a crap shoot?