This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Goldman Warns 67% Odds Of A 10% Market Decline In Next Year
While quick to explain how next year will be better (even though he keeps his year-end 1900 target for the S&P 500), Goldman's chief US equity strategist David Kostin warns there is a good chance of a 10% drop sometime in the next 12 months. The recent 6% pullback (sparked by EM concerns) is only one-third of typical historical corrections and as Kostin notes, the market has gone way too long without a so-called correction (10% from peak to trough). It's been 22 months (and 50% gains) since the last 10% drop and, based on Kostin's quant work, there is a 67% probability that we'll see that correction - which would take the S&P to around 1700.
Source: Goldman Sachs
»
- 12507 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Next year and only 10%?
They are off by 1 decimal point Market will see close to 99% correction with 100% probability sometime in next 100 years.
Hey if Greece can sell bonds again and this morning some Idiot Fund Manager who admitted took 55 cent haircut on previous bonds was enthusiasticaly promote those like there is no tomorrow...
Do this people have any concsience left?
Oh I forgot they never had any....
They forgot to mention that they want you to place all your orders on IEX. They promise not to use the order flow info in any of their prop trading.
Not even if you add up all of the down days and use sum total
Oh no!!! 10%? The sky is falling. 67% chance? ...how did you come up with those odds? It's all Bullshit!!!
More like 90% considering it's coming from Goldman
What we need is a 20-30% correction, at least.
yeah, right! ROFLMAO
10% DROP - HORSE SHIT!!!
IF IT DROPS 10% IT WILL DROP 75% - THE REASON - IN TWO WORDS - MARGIN CALL!!!!!
What were the odds for one last year? I feel like I've read this story before.
May the odds be ever in your favor.
63.7%
Rigged
After rising another 30% GS predicts a 10% drop - mkay. got it.
is this the fuckin onion or something? That's where we are at? 67% chance of a 10% drop? FTW
67% of the time, it drops 10% every time.
Just like Sex Panther Cologne
It's actually 66.8% chance of a 9.87% drop.
Martin Armstrong? Is that you?
Yeah, right up there with a 50% chance of rain.
Read the whole thing(on other sites), Kostin still has SPX up by the end of the year. Might go up, might go down. Gimme my million salary and 100 million in bonuses please.
Yes, and a 67% chance gold will be down 10% by next week.
Except that 30% rise was in the two benchmark index funds. The other 5000 equities are still 25% underwater, but please don't tell anybody. No reason to stir the pot. If anyone's looking for me I'll be over at the ex's burying the family dog.
there's a 78% chance their prediction of 68% chance of the market going down 10% is right.
...
gosh these guys sure sound smart
Isn't this the guy you consistently fade to make regular money? Just BTFATH
67% Odds Of A 10% Market Decline In Next Year
That's most disturbing. I will have many sleepless nights by the end of 2015.
of course there is a 100% chance that Goldman has someone that refutes this... also 100% chance that Goldman will say that they "were right" even if the correction comes after several years... then they will raise Blankfein's pay again...
of course there is a 100% chance that Goldman has someone that refutes this... also 100% chance that Goldman will say that they "were right" even if the correction comes after several years... then they will raise Blankfein's pay again...
I might have been convinced had you repeated it a third time.
Can no one challenge the FED, will the FED always win? I am so sick of this shit....
Oh, gee, really??? What tipped 'em off? The fact that everything is totally fucked up beyond all recognition?
Brilliant work there, ya fucking G.S. douche bags. Go suicide yourselves off the closest high rise.
There is a 100% chance that Goldman will issue more worthless predictions in the future.
'cept those "predictions" are not worthless...to them. They are Jedi mind-tricks on the sheeple stormtroopers who are now moving their holdings exactly as GS expects them too.
Stolper write this article? Need to squeeze the balls of more muppets er clients.
Am I the only one writing love letters to the FED? We need to send "guns and butter" to these people. Address them as Honorable Sadducees. Tell them we heard of the great prophesy of their temple which will be destroyed in 3 seconds...3.2.1
How can the market go down? That would mean the Fed would have to quit supporting interest rates, which would mean the USG would get into trouble which would mean we would voluntrily accept a deflationary collapse....can't happen, never has in a fiat regime.
We will see a persistently rising market until it all blows...Goldman has to know this.
Rob Kirby has (correctly I believe) stated 'interest rates can never go up again'. He sees that the Fed uses interest rate derivatives to keep the 10 year below 3%. As long as they continue then money will flow into equities. Valuation may cause some to switch to cash or (heaven forbid) gold but most money will flow to stocks in the long term. There may be a few ups and downs but we are playing the Fed's game now, this ain't normal folks.
"Rob Kirby has (correctly I believe) stated 'interest rates can never go up again'."
That which "can't" happen, will.
And how many times in history were interest rates at 0% during these previous corrections? Oh, that's right, NONE.
Just BTFD until it doesn't work. I love these FOMC days which trigger a bull stampede. You can just buy buy buy, sell some at the close, hold the rest for tomorrow's gap open.
Eventually, the music will stop, possibly as soon as April earnings reports come out. And one day, Yellen may coo, coo, coo, and the market decides to eat the doves. But in the meantime, let's make hay while the 0% $$ spigot is still on.
I agree with the decline part, but not with the 10% part.
The next significatn downturn, is going to be ugly. At least, I hope it is. America needs a kick in the nuts.
There will be no correction until the infernal leadership of Goldman, et al. meet in conclave and DECIDE there will be.
Is there no one who noticed how convenient it was that the 2008 correction happened just when Obama, who had been leading pre-election by a long shot against that dope McCain, suddenly found himself in massive trouble with the entry of Sarah Palin into the race? Suddenly, WHAM! Market correction and the Democrats are swept to power. Some timing on that correction, huh?
Yeah but that's the AVERAGE that will go down. Tesla and Facebook will continue to rise several hundred percent per year.
the market has gone way too long without a so-called correction
the market has gone way too long fueld by CB INTERVENTION
and people think these Goldman slicksters are smart...
If you can set the rules to the game and change them to suit your needs, there's no excuse for not winning.
their numbers are off by about 67%.
the chance of a 10% correction is basically zero and 2000 in the S&P this year is a given.
Chance of more Muppet slaying at the hands of the Vampire Squid: 100%.
w00t PCP. Gettin high all the time while buying the all time high.
I am planning for a 5% correction within 14 days followed by a suffocating race into a new high within a month or so and then a drop of more than 10% afterwards. I must be awkward, and a terrorist - at least a Russian provocateur.
Gosh, then I'll only be up 60% for the year. Just trmbling over the prospect pf it all.
The Russel 2K is in need of it's own 666 moment.
And there's a 17% chance of a 7000% increase in the next twelve months.
But both increase and decline are already priced into available options.
ps there's a 76% chance I will eat a peach before whenever.
hey squidly, does that mean there is a 10% chance of a 67% drop?
might as well, but their 67% call would still be correct.
So.... La Quinta is a buy then?
Which they will be directly responsible for using the Federal Reesreve and their other Jewish banking friends and computer driven illegal programs!
I think its a mickey mouse call anyhow since a 10% correction in the context of an exponential rise isn't really much of a correction anyhow.
There is a 50% chance that Goldman is correct.
There is a 99.9 % chance that Goldman is correct, with the caviat that what they say is not what they know, and what they do, we'll likely never know.
The Squid will do what suits the Squid.
Nothing else is important.
When they can clean up dropping this market like a stone in will happen. After the fall the finger pointing and blame game will go into overdrive. The simple act of pointing a finger and the placing of blame should never be underestimated for they are indeed magical.
May massacre 2014!
Russian roulette with 4 bullets ?
(pun intended)
67% , in base scenario. He didn't say what are chances of base scenario.
This is hilarious. Like Harry Seldon's Plan , in Aasimov's books.
Interesting, i get 69%, Kostin show me your homework.
They also now have stated twice that Gold was a "slam dunk sell"
Although nobody knows what tricks the Fed and other Central Banks have up their sleeves, the manipulation game will be much more than a 10% correction. And I suspect it may start before the end of this year.
How bold. Hasn't there been a 10% market decline at some point in most years? How about going out on a limb -say a 20-30 or 40% market decline.
One standard deviation for a dime% is a good bet while grinding away at TFATH.
LITMUS TEST
Believe nothing that does not include this.
The Public Be Suckered
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1230886
Technical analysis is nothing but tasseography of the 2000's, a religion for the mathematical mind.
The graphs are not some mathematical worms whose movement can be predicted by past behavior.
You simply can not know what will happen next, or when, or what are the odds for any event. Accept it.