This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Initial Jobless Claims Plunge Most Since 2006 To Lowest Since 2007

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From a revised 332k last week, initial claims collapsed 32k to 300k (smashing expectations of 320k) and dropping to the lowest of the recovery. This is the lowest initial claims print since May 2007. Rather stunningly, given the real employment situation in America, this claims data is nearing the best levels since 2000 (and certainly does nothing for the un-taper case so many are hoping for). This is the biggest weekly drop since January 2006. Continuing claims also dropped to new cycle lows back to Jan 2008 lows. Mission Accomplished?

 

 

Elsewhere, import prices came in far higher than expected, printing at 0.6% above the 0.2% expected, down from the 0.9% last month, however the increase was driven not by the volatile fuel import prices which tumbled from 5.3% to 1.2%, but by core, nonfuel imports which rose from -0.1% to 0.3% - the highest since January and matching the highest sequential increase of the past year.

This was the lowest annual import price decline since August:

 

The breakdown:

 

The detail:

All Imports Excluding Fuel: Prices for nonfuel imports also increased in March, rising 0.3 percent, after edging down 0.1 percent in February. The March increase was led by a 3.7-percent advance in foods, feeds, and beverages prices, although higher nonfuel industrial supplies and materials prices and prices for capital goods also contributed to the advance. The price indexes for consumer goods and automotive vehicles recorded no change in March. Despite the March rise, nonfuel import prices declined 0.8 percent over the past 12 months

It appears Japan's exporting of deflation may be coming to an end.

Finally, March export prices rose by 0.8%, the most in over a year, driven by a 2.7% increase in agricultural export prices:

Here are the details:

All Exports: Export prices advanced 0.8 percent in March, the largest monthly increase for the index since a 0.8-percent rise in September 2012. Rising prices for both agricultural exports and nonagricultural exports each contributed to the advance in export prices. Prices for exports also rose over the past year, increasing 0.2 percent. The year-over-year advance was the first 12-month rise since a 0.3-percent increase between July 2012 and July 2013.

 

Agricultural Exports: The price index for agricultural exports increased 2.7 percent in March, after a 1.4- percent advance in February. The March rise was driven by a 6.6-percent increase in soybeans prices, a 7.8-percent gain in wheat prices, a 2.8-percent advance in meat prices, and a 7.0-percent rise in corn prices. Prices for agricultural exports decreased 1.6 percent for the year ended in March, led by falling prices over the past year for corn, soybeans, and wheat.

How long until global food prices start doing their early 2011 spike leading to unfortunate consequences like various regional "springs" around the world, and how long until US inflation imports translates into inflation within America's internal supply chain?

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:41 | 4642660 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

once you fire everyone, there is simply no one left to fire....unless the overpaid execs start firing themselves.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:43 | 4642666 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@101 years and counting

 

LOL.  The cost of downsizing the hamburger flippers flows directly to the CEO's bottom line.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:47 | 4642677 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Losing a 29.5 hr/wk job does not quality you for unemployment.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 09:02 | 4642732 JerseyJoe
JerseyJoe's picture

It also helps to put a card carrying commie in charge of BLS.   

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 09:19 | 4642781 smlbizman
Thu, 04/10/2014 - 09:21 | 4642789 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Fictional data drops and Fed cheerleading seem to be getting fewer results than before. When I saw the headline I thought it was aimed at stabilizing the USD which looks to be in serious danger to my amateur chartist's eye. Record data hardly moved the dollar though. It's still only small distance above danger levels. I know Kyle says killing the dollar is the plan but what actully happens to all those dollar and interest rate derivatives if the dollar drops suddenly down to final support at 72-73? That's well beyond my pay grade.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 09:58 | 4642888 Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

Dayyyyuuummm! Enough of this "taper" business...let's just end the printing RIGHT NOW. What's the worst that could happen?

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:48 | 4642682 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

The trick to trumpeting bs numbers is to show every value as a quotient, then you can game it by making sure you are dividing by a small amount.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:48 | 4642683 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Are they so stunned they forgot to take gold and silver down as usual?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8rYotiiFP8

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:43 | 4642668 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Moar taper!!

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:49 | 4642685 Cattender
Cattender's picture

after yesterdays HUGE Gain i wonder how the Market will React? is the Taper thing still on???

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:44 | 4642671 BLOTTO
Thu, 04/10/2014 - 09:17 | 4642773 Serfs Up
Serfs Up's picture

Lowest since september 2013 you mean....you know, when they printed at 294k

Other than that, excellent reporting.

(Source: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20131889.htm)

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:41 | 4642662 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Less workforce participation means less employment positions means less positions turnover/firings.  New normal.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:42 | 4642664 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

Fake it, revise it...last weeks has already been revised up along with cont claims...typical gov't fraud

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 09:18 | 4642780 JerseyJoe
JerseyJoe's picture

All made easier when the commie/fascist appointed a commie-fascist to run BLS... Joey Goebbels would proud.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:42 | 4642665 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

won't they take this as good?

OT.
no silver take down last night.. I think or hope better said it catches fire today.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:43 | 4642667 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Woohoo!  Mission accomplished!  Time for a 100% taper now.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:46 | 4642674 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

And the "market" doesn't care. Only fed QE forever matters.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:47 | 4642678 new game
new game's picture

i can honestly say jobs are available in mpls/mn. i believe jobs are more plentiful at the semi skilled and skilled  level.

manufacturing(what is left of it) is coming back in gas/oil, defense(da), and select infastructure. pumps, valves servos ect.

i may have finally landed a half ass job-will know by friday...

common story is peoples have changed careers, ex. framer to above type jobs-the sharpest people and go geters.

rest are crying in their soup or just plain loosers. one look and you know who i'm talking about, basically unhireable-fucking slobs that mare up the scenery...

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 09:19 | 4642785 I need Another Beer
I need Another Beer's picture

You can thank ur Governor for MN's job gains and lower taxes. He crapped on the Unions etc...

Yea, he is a conservative who walks the talk.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 12:32 | 4643768 Ward no. 6
Ward no. 6's picture

i am in a different part of mn and it is not so good here

they have this volunteer list to have ppl go home early every night

it is kind of a pressure thing. They say it is voluntary but ppl will get down on you if you don't take your turn to leave. It keeps the company from avoiding layoff and paying into it.

we all suffer from smaller checks as a result

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 14:49 | 4644318 First There Is ...
First There Is A Mountain's picture

I'm guessing you don't number among the skilled or even semi skilled? 

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:48 | 4642680 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

In today's reality , you hafta lose all three part time jobs to claim unemployment.....

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:51 | 4642691 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Actually you can lose 50 part time jobs and still not be qualified for unemployment.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:51 | 4642688 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

Its more than about job claims it also has to do about what kinds of jobs have been created. More important is recently released figures showing a decline in job formation over recent months may be an omen of danger ahead.

This calls into question claims the economy has reached escape velocity but lends credence to claims by others like me that QE and artificially low interest rates are not the answer.  These policies and massive government deficit spending can only carry a distorted economy so far. Expect this issue to come front and center in coming months. More about this in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/01/slower-job-growth-red-flag.html

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:52 | 4642697 NeedleDickTheBu...
NeedleDickTheBugFucker's picture

Looking for the claims number to go negative next week.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:53 | 4642698 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

I believe they're also counting "dumpster diving" for rotten food and collecting aluminum cans as full time jobs now.  So along with counting being a crack head, prostitute, or full time member of the F.S.A. also as a full time jobs, I'm sure this crimianl fraud of a government would definitely say we're:

Winning!!!!

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:53 | 4642701 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

Lets see how algos reacts

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:56 | 4642707 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Get rid of this rubbish, no one believes anything that this goverment publishes!

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 08:58 | 4642715 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

And the monkeys are out early in full force this fine morning hammering the paper PM's mercilessly.  Nothing to see here folks...move along...go back to sleep...everything is just awesome.

Unless you've already put the glasses on...then you know what's up and there's no turning back.  Keep stacking phyzz as long as these criminal scumbags keep it on sale for us!!!

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 09:02 | 4642717 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

There must be something seriously amiss with the near term vulnerablity of the dollar for the  govt to feel the need to  spew forth this kind of number to justify continued tapering.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 09:02 | 4642728 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

And when that number starts dropping under the historical norm you will know for a fact that it is because there are simply fewer jobs to lose and fewer people who qualify for unemployment, despite being unemployed.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 09:07 | 4642745 hotrod
hotrod's picture

At least that stopped the dollar drop.  Hmmmmmm

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 09:09 | 4642749 BiteMeBO
BiteMeBO's picture

I made $6700 twerking from home.  

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 09:22 | 4642791 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

"I Wanna Be a Ho" by Velvet Jones

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 09:12 | 4642761 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

The March rise was driven by a 6.6-percent increase in soybeans prices, a 7.8-percent gain in wheat prices, a 2.8-percent advance in meat prices, and a 7.0-percent rise in corn prices.

Forget about the drop in the jobless initial claims, get a load of the price inflation.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 09:15 | 4642768 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 And  the usd still can't crawl out of the gutter.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 09:20 | 4642788 IdeasRbulletproof
IdeasRbulletproof's picture

Family Dollar to close 370 stores. That is all...

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 09:25 | 4642802 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

Well color me convinced.  I'm selling my stack and betting everything on JPM.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 10:04 | 4642919 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

In ye olde days, a company with 100 full time employees would cut 25% of its labor force by laying off 25 employees who would then file for unemployment. Today, that company has converted most employees to part-time and simply chops their hours by 25%. They are still 'employed' so they do not get unemployment. Anyone see the benefit to the government here?

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 10:07 | 4642936 t0mmyBerg
t0mmyBerg's picture

Doug Short has it as the lowest back to 2007 per the DOL, but if you go here:

http://ycharts.com/indicators/initial_claims_for_unemployment_insurance

You can see that what I believe was the first report of claims for Sep 7, 2013, or just last year, about 7 months ago the DOL reported claims as 294,000.  Which must have later been adjusted higher to something over 300,000.  And of course todays 300,000 print will also be revised higher by at least a couple thousand later on and we will all forget this 300,000 print.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 11:11 | 4643265 RobM1981
RobM1981's picture

Since so many more people are working part time, does that skew the jobless claim numbers?  Not all states provide unemployment for part time workers.  How is this aggregated?

 

More importantly, is there an imbalance with the data?  Do part-time employees show up as hired when they are hired, but not unemployed if/when they are let go?

 

I can't answer this - I am honestly asking.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 11:15 | 4643286 RealityCheque
RealityCheque's picture

If you look on the horizon you can make out the faint image of some chickens coming home to roost.

'Bout fuckin time.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 11:44 | 4643483 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

The numbers will be made to add credibility to the Fed's capitulation

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 11:54 | 4643552 Ariadne
Ariadne's picture

Moar creative book keeping. Socialists have to lie to push their delusion. Equality = moar dummies

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 12:04 | 4643614 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Orwell might have been a tad off in 1984, as in the DC US Winston Smith is a integral part of power.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!