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Why Meat Prices Are Going To Continue Soaring For The Foreseeable Future
Submitted by Michael Snyder of The American Dream blog,
The average price of USDA choice-grade beef has soared to $5.28 a pound, and the average price of a pound of bacon has skyrocketed to $5.46. Unfortunately for those that like to eat meat, this is just the beginning of the price increases. Due to an absolutely crippling drought that won’t let go of the western half of the country, the total size of the U.S. cattle herd has shrunk for seven years in a row, and it is now the smallest that is has been since 1951. But back in 1951, we had less than half the number of mouths to feed. And a devastating pig virus that has never been seen in the United States before has already killed up to 6 million pigs in this country and continues to spread like wildfire. What all of this means is that the supply of meat is going to be tight for the foreseeable future even as demand for meat continues to go up. This is going to result in much higher prices, and so food is going to put a much larger dent in American family budgets in the months and years to come.
One year ago, the average price of USDA choice-grade beef was $4.91. Now it is up to $5.28, and the Los Angeles Times says that we should not expect prices to come down “any time soon”…
Come grilling season, expect your sirloin steak to come with a hearty side of sticker shock.
Beef prices have reached all-time highs in the U.S. and aren’t expected to come down any time soon.
Extreme weather has thinned the nation’s beef cattle herds to levels last seen in 1951, when there were about half as many mouths to feed in America.
“We’ve seen strong prices before but nothing this extreme,” said Dennis Smith, a commodities broker for Archer Financial Services in Chicago. “This is really new territory.“
The outlook for pork is even worse. The price of bacon is 13 percent higher than it was a year ago, and porcine epidemic diarrhea is absolutely devastating the U.S. pig population…
A virus never before seen in the U.S. has killed millions of baby pigs in less than a year, and with little known about how it spreads or how to stop it, it’s threatening pork production and pushing up prices by 10 percent or more.
Scientists think porcine epidemic diarrhea, which does not infect humans or other animals, came from China, but they don’t know how it got into the country or spread to 27 states since last May.
It is estimated that up to 6 million pigs may have died already, and it is being projected that U.S. pork production could be down by 7 percent this year. That would be the largest decline in more than 30 years.
But even if someone brought an end to this pig virus tomorrow, we would still be facing a very serious food crisis in this nation.
The reason for this is the multi-year drought which is crippling farming and ranching in much of the western half of the country.
As you can see from the latest U.S. Drought Monitor update, the drought shows no signs of letting up…
Hopefully this drought will end soon.
But I wouldn’t count on it.
In fact, CBS News recently interviewed one scientist that says that the state of California could potentially be facing “a century-long megadrought“…
Scientist Lynn Ingram, author of “The West without Water: What Past Floods, Droughts, and Other Climatic Clues Tell Us about Tomorrow,” uses sediment cores inside tubes to study the history of drought in the West.
“We’ve taken this record back about 3,000 years,” Ingram says.
That record shows California is in one of its driest periods since 1580.
While a three-to-five-year drought is often thought of as being a long drought, Ingram says history shows they can be much longer.
“If we go back several thousand years, we’ve seen that droughts can last over a decade, and in some cases, they can last over a century,” she says.
So what will we do if this drought just keeps going and going and going?
As the article quoted above noted, last century was far wetter than usual. During that time, we built teeming cities in the desert and we farmed vast areas that are usually bone dry…
Scientists say their research shows the 20th century was one of the wettest centuries in the past 1,300 years. During that time, we built massive dams and rerouted rivers. We used abundant water to build major cities and create a $45 billion agriculture industry in a place that used to be a desert.
So what happens if the western half of the country returns to “normal”?
What will we do then?
Meanwhile, drought is devastating many other very important agricultural areas around the world as well. For example, the horrible drought in Brazil could soon send the price of coffee through the roof…
Coffee futures prices are up more than 75 percent this year due to a lack of appreciable rain in the coffee growing region of eastern Brazil during January and February, which are critical months for plant development, according to the International Coffee Organization, a London-based trade group.
At this point, 142 Brazilian cities are rationing water, and it wouldn’t just be coffee that would be affected by this drought. As a recent RT article explained, Brazil is one of the leading exporters in a number of key agricultural categories…
Over 140 Brazilian cities have been pushed to ration water during the worst drought on record, according to a survey conducted by the country’s leading newspaper. Some neighborhoods only receive water once every three days.
Water is being rationed to nearly 6 million people living in a total of 142 cities across 11 states in Brazil, the world’s leading exporter of soybeans, coffee, orange juice, sugar and beef. Water supply companies told the Folha de S. Paulo newspaper that the country’s reservoirs, rivers and streams are the driest they have been in 20 years. A record heat wave could raise energy prices and damage crops.
Some neighborhoods in the city of Itu in Sao Paulo state (which accounts for one-quarter of Brazil’s population and one-third of its GDP), only receive water once every three days, for a total of 13 hours.
Most people just assume that we will always have massive quantities of cheap, affordable food in our supermarkets.
But just because that has been the case for as long as most of us can remember, that does not mean that it will always be true.
Times are changing, and food prices are already starting to move upward aggressively.
Yes, let us hope for the best, but let us also prepare for the worst.
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Not near the Chinese buffets you don't...
True, but I mean the really well fed fat pampered ones my neighbors have, not the strays.
Go for the cats first. They are better eating than canines, and unlike cats, most canines are actually useful.
Bobcat backstraps are especially good eating.
ah, finally a good reason felines are picky eaters. Good to know. I like cats a lot but I also like not being hungry. It's what's for dinner - right meow.
"USDA to Allow China to Process Chickens, Ship Back to U.S." 9/10/13* http://shine.yahoo.com/healthy-living/usda-allow-china-process-chicken-ship-back-u-214500281.html
"U.S. Regulatory Agency Approves Smithfield Foods Sale to Chinese Firm" 9/10/13** 'Hogwart Heaven?' http://growinggeorgia.com/2013/09/us-regulatory-agency-approves-smithfield-foods-sale-chinese-firm/
yuan = U.S.$ <$0.16 = $1.00> but, in reality... US$ = 5cents or approx. 1/5 of yuan buying power
say your welcome, bernanke...
Go long on Meat Glue.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXXrB3rz-xU
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has declared both ingredients as “Generally Recognized as Safe,” otherwise known as GRAS.
Much like ZH's load-time analysis.
All you have to do is head to the Safeway on EBT Reload Day and you'll see neck tattooed asswipes that weigh 300 lbs on their handicapped scooters rolling to the checkout line with a cart full of meat.....and of course another cart for beer, cigs and deli stuff. You ain't seen nothing yet....just wait till Goldman and Co along with the lying sack of shit USDA gets done asspounding the farmer with prices that won't even return production inputs costs.
No worry though if you're on EBT....they'll add in a COL increase to make sure there won't be any pizzed off folks out there in Welfare Land.
Everybody just needs to go on the Moochelle Diet. Easy peasy.
Easy peasy, or eat your peas?
Finally, Red Lobster can be shuttered as a service to humanity.
I was just at Costco loading up (I could see the bottom of the chest freezer; never a good sign). I noticed beef and pork were up in price, but so were chicken breasts and ground turkey. Coffee was actually down a little.
Our whole food supply chain is vulnerable, and dependent on things staying the same as they are. Disruptions in energy, weather and water will wreak havoc on the way we produce and distribute food.
The global-warming ecopocalypse is 100% real and 100% now. To deny it now is to deny your lying eyes.
For some reason nobody is having a problem with the science showing California and the West have been unusually wet over the past 150 years, and are due to revert to the (very dry) mean and possibly overshoot. But when that same science shows what's happening with the weather globally, it's all a big conspiracy fraud by eco-lefty what-have-yous. Apparently the PR firms hired by carbon-energy firms don't see an issue for them with what's going on in California.
Actually it's a huge problem: science shows no such thing.
The air is wetter because of the held moisture from global warming but that doesn't mean you can force rain out of that air.
If anything the one thing you can count on is warm air trying to rise up the mountains. That will cause rain but how much will evapororate before you can get to use it?
Inflation of asset prices - check. Deflation of debt instruments - check. Financial shitstorm - checkmate.
Any questions?
add to it bees die off
http://qz.com/107970/scientists-discover-whats-killing-the-bees-and-its-...
This Is What Our Grocery Shelves Would Look Like Without Beeshttp://www.fastcodesign.com/1672866/this-is-what-our-grocery-shelves-wou...
2013-2014 Winter Honey Bee Losses Are Likely To Be Largehttp://blogs.scientificamerican.com/compound-eye/2014/03/17/2013-2014-wi...
Report: Over 30% of Managed Honey Bee Colonies in U.S. Lost Last Winterhttp://www.outdoorsblog.com/report-over-30-of-managed-honey-bee-colonies...
I can live without muh roads...but Lawdy, please don't take muh kawfee away!
Folks are clearing off old growth putting in fences on 20 plus acres for cattle in ky. You can raise 2 per acre here about a grand profit 20 to 24 months
'starting to move up' is an understatement.
Oh well guess ill be tilling up a bigger garden. Never wanted to become a vegetarian though that sux ass.
Not going to fairwell for fast food joints who have already caught up in price with lower class sitdowns.
Of course you can tell some of the sitdowns are adjusting too with table LCD menus and payment options and portions are shrinking.
I wonder what horse tastes like? They still are fairly cheap people can't afford to feed them.
You can pick up horses cheap on Craigslist. Donkeys are free. If one were inclined, get a free donkey, a pressure cooker and a bunch of quart jars and you'll be set in meat for a while.
I use roadkill in my maggot bucket over the chickens. All that extra protein makes the yolks a real nice yellow.
had horse cold-cuts once. It was delicious, almost like beef.
Buffalo is really good (and lean), and with the west returning to what it was like centuries ago, perhaps they could replace a lot of the cattle being ranched out there. They can survive on a lot less.
And also why is it that shtf all at once it seems? Or are they contributing factors?
Last beef stand...Nevada.
"Extreme weather has thinned the nation’s beef cattle herds to levels last seen in 1951, when there were about half as many mouths to feed in America."
More like the fucking BLM driving cattle ranchers out of business like what is going on now in Nevada. I am going go long cows this summer!
No, he still had his cows. Drought in TX caused many head to be slaughtered. Brazil is having a major drought, too, and they are the #1 exporter of beef, soybeans, and coffee.
"Drought in TX caused many head to be slaughtered"
At the auction barns you will see far more buyers than sellers right now. Due to the cost of hay, and the distance I have to haul it now, we have only kept one replacement heifer from our last calf crop. We covered our cows later last year than ever before. We don't expect any calves to hit the ground before June this year. I am hoping that we have some grass by then, but the rains have not been there for us, and the tanks are starting to really lose level. The catfish may soon be killed off due to the early heat and lack of rain.
Enjoy these times.
We're going out with a bang. You're not going to be able to live a life like this for a long time.
As someone said further up: Cypher is always right in the long run.
Gravy train is about to come off the tracks.
Fortunately none of this will result in inflation, I can feel a substition coming on ....Pink slime for Beef...all fixed.
Cat food will be the new hedonic substitute for ground beef (which replaced steak decades ago, btw).
The globally aware libtards want you to save the animals and eat insects instead.
Humans and life in general is very resource intensive on a civilizational scale.
The sooner we reach singularity, the better. Intelligent life out in the universe would've already transferred consciousness to a mechanical/artificial medium.
Perhaps that is the great test. Will we suffer our biological limitations, or will we transcend them?
Yes! and Maggots!
Droughts are up, heat is up, yet Americans choose to believe in 'god' and 'global warming is a hoax' and 'agenda 21: depopulation'.
What utter fools.
Coldest winter in the NE in 30 years. Low temp records set all over the country this year. Record Artic ice pack growth. Who's the fool?
One sure sign it's a hoax: pushers of the environmental agenda had to rebrand it "climate change", for lack of data. Yes, lack of data.
Hot, cold, wet, dry, or drizzle: call it climate change and you are always right.
1 cold winter but it was still a hot summer at the same time: in Australia. You can't judge global climate by a localized event. The polar vortex storm is a small event localized in geography and in time.
"Record Artic ice pack growth"
Again you're a fool: this didn't happen and hasn't for many decades. At all. Satellite pictures confirm ice loss - not growth.
' had to rebrand it "climate change", '
Never happened.
Global warming's biggest threat is climate change and it has never been re-branded. Your attempt to cause a hoax by saying there is a rebranding is rejected.
Global warming is the cause and climate change is the damage like cancer is a cause and hair loss and death are consequences. To then say doctors "re-branded cancer" so now they just call it "death" and various other symptoms (of the cancer) is equally a hoax.
Why do you perpetrate this hoax? Do you want us all murdered?
Global warming climate change is a hot (only) steady (always) climb UP of temperatures we can and do measure persistently around the planet.
In the mean while : government sieging cattle holder and threatening to kit him over tortoises. Somewhere else:
Government killing tortoises, do they care about tortoises over cattle ranchers or not?
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/08/25/government-plans-to-euthanize-hund...
another stupid article from snyder.
no analysis of the root cause(s) nor a proposal of solutions to solve the problem. instead, instill fear and every man for himself....
i guess amercans just have to pray for the rapture and shit like that in christian fundamentalist fantasy land...
I agree about Snyder. I was just glad this wasn't another of his "27 things you don't know but should..." wastes of time.
On the other hand, I don't think anybody has any idea how to replace what we've created and become completely dependent upon in California. The water simply isn't there naturally, and now we've used up the water we could move there from other places. In places where the water is, the climate isn't conducive to planting all the everything we need to eat.
Sure, as global climate shifts it's possible a new place will turn up that is the perfect place to grow everything, but we don't know where that is right now. And as variable as the weather and climate are being, the location of that "sweet spot" may not settle down at all. If the recent observations prove out that the Jet Stream is getting progressively weaker due to the lack of Polar ice, everybody living north of about 45 degrees latitude is fucked, and that's a lot of people. Sitting at about 45 degrees north are Minneapolis, Bordeaux, Belgrade, Beijing, etc. Europe is a lot further North than most of us Americans realize. It's just warmed by the Gulf Stream, because of the Jet Stream. Screw around with that and the fuckishness is beyond most of us to comprehend.
flakmeister is already covering the root-cause analysis in El Nino, El Nina and proven, measurable global warming.
If they can grow a new nose for people why not grow a beef thigh the size of Los Angeles. I don't know why people worry about the little things.
Lab produced 'beef' is already a reality.
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-23576143
Real food is going to become like gold - If you do not grow it, own it, hold it, you will not eat real food. You will eat the shit they grow for you in the lab.
Creepshow Here.
It can rain for weeks here in socal but the pecker press always says it's not enough to help the bullshit "drought". This is one of the LONG GRIFTS (howdy Enron). Articles such as these are sewing the minds to accept the scheme. If you believe this shit then go to the grocery store, you're already softened up, dummy. Pay up and shut up shitball.
OR
Walk away from any cut of meat over $3.50/lb.. It's like your milk advisory board and all these other fuckwad insiders monopolist gamer lobby assholes.
Vote with your wallet. How many pounds will they have to throw away before they drop the price?
"How many pounds will they have to throw away before they drop the price?"
None, as long as there is a functioning grinder in the meat room and a "Micky-Dees" on the corner.
the near term live cattle contract rolled over at the end of March
nothing to say it won't come back, but it's looking bearish now
feeder cattle and hogs are same - hogs has slid the most
cheaper meats just in time for bbq season!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.thewarningsecondcoming.com/new-world-order-plan-to-control-yo...
"Century long mega drought"... said chicken little. The sky is always falling to people too young to have lived through all manner of weather or by the guy that wants to make a headline using hyperbole. When it rains again, and it will as it always does just as sure as the sun rises in the east every morning no one will hear a peep from Chicken Little.
China now owns over 70% of US pig production. Also the virus killing off those pigs was likely trekked in by the Chinese owners as the virus was previously unknown in the US but common in Asia.
Chinese mother to child: "Eat your sausage dear; there are children starving in America."
It's not just the drought. It's federal intrusion and regulation that is making it impossible to make a profit cattle ranching.
Yah-look at what's going on in NV with the rancher.
Plus, the enviroMENTAL nazis at eP@ are all worried about the effects of CATTLE FARTS on the fraudulent global warming rip-off!
These f-ers in DC are insane.
There is no such fraud.
The real measured global warming is caused most by CO2 from machines, burning fuel, not cow farts and we all know it. Those who deny it are outright liars who burn the most fuel & demand and ecopocalypse to kill off the poor.
We have steak maybe once every 6 months now. The price rise started before I heard of a drought. However, now I can see why beef production didn't increase. We live in the Texas hill country and you can't even support goats without trucking in feed, due to the drought. So far this year, we've had less than an inch of rain.
"Thin out the herd"!
no one wants to thin out the herd. In fact, the elites want the herd more numerous, live less, work more, eat less and to be in just enough suffering they always beg for help in the form of debt from the elites. How do you think this slavery racket keeps going world-wide?
No one sees the elephant in the room: continuous geoengineering over the Pacific which stops any rain coming in...
Unfortunately geoengineering does not only occur over the Pacific but everywhere in the West dominated part of the world (NATO land).
we all see it, just some call it a hoax. It's called global warming. It soaks up the moisture and holds it.