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The Diet Coke Bubble Also Pops

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With everyone focusing on the stock market and debating whether the second tech bubble has finally popped as it tends to do every so many years, another bubble also appears to have burst, and this time it is literally a bubble - that in carbonated diet coke. The WSJ reported that "for 13 years running, Americans have been drinking less Coke. Now Diet Coke sales are falling off a cliff. Globally, sales growth of soda is slowing amid concerns about sugar intake and obesity."

The trends are industrywide, but it is especially bad news for Coca-Cola Co. a company that derives almost 75% of its global sales volume from carbonated soft drinks. "Sugar water with bubbles is not the future of the world. There's an existential issue,'' said Tom Pirko, an industry consultant at Bevmark LLC.

Maybe. But don't tell that to the Atlanta-based company which instead of diversifying is doubling down by "boosting advertising, introducing new products, and using singer Taylor Swift as a pitchwoman."

The chart below summarizes the problem: while sales of Coke's flagship product, Coca-Cola, are down almost 10% since 2007, the real pain is in the Diet product whose sales have tumbled at double that rate.

The main reason for Diet Coke's woes: aspartame.

Coke is defending aspartame, the main artificial sweetener in diet soda, citing more than 200 studies affirming its safety. At the same time, it plans to roll out Coca-Cola Life, a moderate-calorie version sweetened with stevia plant extract, across more countries, after releasing the drink in Argentina and Chile last year.

For now, judging by actual sales numbers, the consumers aren't buying it.

The pace of Coke's global soda volume growth slowed to 1% last year from 3% in 2012 as concerns about health and obesity spread. Last month the World Health Organization suggested that individuals limit consumption of added sugars in food and drinks to 6 teaspoons a day—less than the 9 teaspoons in a 12-ounce can of Coke.

 

The new drag on Coke's U.S. business is diet soda. Diet Coke volume has been down for eight straight years, accelerating the decline in the past three. Diet Coke sales plunged 6.8%, in volume terms last year, according to Beverage Digest. Diet Pepsi sales fell 6.9%, but PepsiCo, with its enormous snacks and foods business, is far less dependent on soda than Coke is.

 

Soda volume in Mexico, Coke's second-largest market, have fallen an estimated 5% or more since the country introduced a tax on sugary beverages in January.

And visually:

The worst news for the food and beverage industry: if Americans (and Mexicans) are starting to care about the content of what they put in their mouth, the repercussions could be dire not only for soda companies, but certainly for makers of fast food - because it only takes a quick google search to find out just what is actually contained in that tasty-looking fried "burger."

On the other hand, with most untainted food products getting increasingly more expensive, it is doubtful if even the health considerations of the majority would trump their inability to purchase anything more nutritious than readily available fast food, which incidentally is also the reason for America's creeping healthcare catastrophe.

 

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Fri, 04/11/2014 - 19:09 | 4649431 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

I like the rodent surprise in the bottle.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 15:26 | 4648645 Notsobadwlad
Notsobadwlad's picture

Not to mention that aspartame was classified as a suspected carcinogen until Rumsfeld became president of Searle and it magically received clearance after being turned down multiple times before. Bad stuff.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 15:40 | 4648703 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

The effects of the soft drinks is enough to drive you to hard drinks.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 02:34 | 4650388 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

yeah, I just drink Vodka, none of those crap softdrinks for me now, used to use them as mixers until I realised how much I could be shortening my life.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 16:08 | 4648819 Bioscale
Bioscale's picture

For fuck sake, why there aren't more soft drinks with stevia instead of the fucking sugar?

Stevia prevents tooth decay and has ZERO calories, it's the god's sweetener with several positive side effects. And you can have this plant in your garden or on the balcony forever!

 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 16:11 | 4648829 notadouche
notadouche's picture

First thing I want to say is just drink water.  It's so good I'm addicted to the stuff.  All day every day.  I can't get enough of it.  Ice water is awesome.  Sipping on hot water early morning or late evening is fantastic.  I would not be overstating the fact that I drink about a gallon a day.  I have craved it for as long as I remember.  

However...

Riddle me this Batman:  Why does the conversation towards Diet Coke always make the assumption that the drinker believes it is healthy?  Why is it always assumed that the drinker of Diet Coke is actually dieting?  These assumptions seem to be the trigger for most of the bashing of Diet Coke, the aspartame issue notwithstanding.   Every damned false narrative on diet soda drinking assumes that the drinker believes they are choosing a healthy alternative and on a diet while eating a bacon cheeseburger.  That's the biggest fucking false flag going in the food wars.  

If I am going to drink a soda, which I do occassionally the only drink I choose is Diet Coke.  I never thought of it as healthy.  Never chose it because of a diet.  I just happen to think it taste better than Coke which for my taste is way too sweet and the other brands just blow. To each his own preference wise but it is a canard to evaluate Diet Coke on the basis that the drinker thinks it is healthy or they are on a diet.  It's actually an absurd assumption to think people are actually that stupid and uniformed.  

These false assumptions are the basis of all of this "research".  False or flawed assumptions lead to false or flawed analytics that of course frame the outcome and criticism that was desired before the studies begin. Fairly typical intellectual dishonesty that is unfortunately an everyday occurrence in our society.  

In keeping with biased intellectually dishonest compartors my analysis leads me to the conclusion that I would rather share the road with an idiiot diet coke drinker than an elitist that had downed a healthy glass or two of red wine or a couple of light beers.  

   

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 19:15 | 4649438 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

You may be the only person on the planet who thinks that diet coke drinkers think they're drinking something healthy.

They drink it because they don't give a fuck. Period.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 23:30 | 4650144 notadouche
notadouche's picture

you may be the only one on the planet to have no understanding of what I wrote. 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 16:16 | 4648852 geotrader
geotrader's picture

What is not mentioned is that Coke Zero is cutting into Diet's market share.  

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 16:58 | 4649007 muleskinner
muleskinner's picture

Place a six pack of your favorite beer next to a six pack of diet coke, see which one is gone and which one is given away or emptied for the aluminum scrap.

I don't know how anyone on this earth would ever drink more than one diet coke.

The Mexican bottled coke is a different story, it is a treat.  Well worth the buck twenty for one.

All American made coke products taste just like shit, not that I would know from personal experience, but I've tried diet coke and I think it tastes like shit and I know I'm not too far from wrong, so it is safe to say, and I just don't buy American made coke products anymore.

Stop drinking municipal water from the tap immediately and don't ever drink it again.  Always drink reverse osmosis, 'bottled' water. 

Never drink tap water, never. 

It is beer time.  There is no beer in heaven.

 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 18:45 | 4649377 logicalman
logicalman's picture

There's no heaven.

FIFY

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 19:07 | 4649428 epwpixieq-1
epwpixieq-1's picture

I buy Coke ... whenever I need rust removal solution, cleans rusty metal perfectly, but even I do not buy Diet Coke (it is bad even for the rust :) ).

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 00:06 | 4650202 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

https://shine.yahoo.com/healthy-living/family-stopped-eating-sugar-happened-202700552.html  My Family Stopped Eating Sugar for a Year and This is What Happened

It's NOT just Coke and Pepsi!

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 03:30 | 4656020 GraceMarie
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