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Explaining Market Gyrations

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A look back at the headlines and market movements of the last month provides some useful color for why markets are weak and why now... As Scotiabank's Guy Haselmann warned early last month, there is a threshold point during the Fed’s attempt to normalize policy where the tide reverses and investors join in a sell-off in a race to avoid being left behind. This is why it's called the greater fool theory.

 

Via Scotiabank,

March 28:   Corporate DB Plans

There are several reasons to expect substantial changes in the asset allocation policies of corporate pension plans. Those changes should result in a significant volume of assets moving from equities and other return-oriented investment classes into lower-risk liability-driven (LDI) investing strategies.

March 27:   P&L Management

A comment I posted on a Bloomberg Chat this morning says it all, “herd trading, policy pivots, and terrible market liquidity are a bad combination."

This week, markets have been driven by position squaring and P&L management.   There have been extraordinary price movements in various commodities and currencies due to extreme weather, the decline in the Chinese Renminbi, capital flight, Fed taper, and geo-politics.  Such P&L volatility is causing decisions to be made in other, seemingly uncorrelated markets, due to the need to manage P&L risk.

These movements are of elevated concern because the investment climate of recent years has created a herd mentalityNow that global stimulus is being withdrawn, those trades are under attack and a mini-contagion is unfolding

March 24:   Mini-Contagion

The US economy has shown some hints of improvement, but overall it is plodding along at a pace that is neither strong nor awful.  Most economists expect momentum to improve slowly to a 3% GDP growth pace in 2014, and something slightly above that in 2015.  These forecasts are probably the best-case scenario.  Therefore, they have asymmetrical skew to the down side.  Due to crowded positions, valuations priced to perfection, and a confluence of global economic headwinds, the riskiest financial assets also have downside distribution skews of potential outcomes.

March 20:  FOMC Global Challenges

A confluence of highly concerning factors are all colliding simultaneously, adding to Yellen’s challenges.

Massive fiscal and monetary stimulus in recent years have skyrocketed asset prices, but yet developed world economies have only been able to muster 2.5% growth. The rate of global stimulus in now in decline.

EM central banks (and the RBNZ) have hiked rates.  The FOMC is tapering.  Japan is raising its consumption tax on April 1st (the third arrow is nowhere in sight). Geo-political tit-for-tat with Russia could spiral out of control. Russia could cause trouble in the Middle East in an attempt to lift oil prices.  This would hurt the west (and economic growth), but strengthen the Russia economy.

Beijing has decimated levered carry trades by unexpectedly weakening the Yuan. Beijing is also allowing defaults. The era of riskless borrowing has come to an sudden end.  If Beijing is not careful, deeply interconnected cross guarantees could unleash an uncontrollable wave of bad loan defaults.  After many years of moral hazard that have fueled the credit bubble, lenders will be more careful.  Growth will surely slow but Beijing is trying to prevent a hard landing.

Most investors are expecting a march to higher Treasury yields in the near term, but I think they will be disappointed.   For the next few weeks, I still prefer:  long 30-yr Treasuries and curve flatteners.

March 17:  Global Economic Headwinds

Sanctions amongst key trading partners are one of three significant factors causing problems for global growth and ‘risk-on’ trades.  (It is time for return of capital strategies – emphasis added).

1) The world’s 3rd largest economy, Japan, had disappointing growth last quarter and is about to be confronted with a consumption tax hike on April 1st.  Some economists predict Japan entering recession in Q3.

2) China, the world’s 2nd largest economy, weakened its currency again last night, possibly due to fears of a hard landing as Beijing attempts to reel-in its credit bubble.

3) The Fed has begun the process of ending QE which will be followed by a process to normalize rates.  Risk-seeking investors who have leaned-on the ‘Fed put’ should view ‘tapering’ as a lowering of the strike of the Fed’s out-of-the-money put.  In other words, ‘tapering’ opens up the downside by skewing the risk/reward distribution for risk assets unfavorably.

March 12:  Great Challenges Confront the FOMC

Bernanke’s term as Chairman was characterized initially by crisis management and then subsequently by providing ever-greater creative forms and sources of monetary stimulus.   Conversely, the very first day of Yellen’s term began with a new policy that decreases the rate of accommodation, and the desire to move toward policy normalization.

In addition, the FOMC under Bernanke provided such an extraordinary amount of accommodation that Fed officials (today under Yellen) have become increasingly concerned about the risks to financial stability posed by their policies.  Even the doves have expressed worries about consequences of persistently low interest rates (6 years of ZIRP) and the incentives for excessive risk-taking.

Furthermore, the geo-economic and geo-political environments are vastly different today.  Central banks and governments were mostly coordinated in their attempts at stimulus during the Bernanke regime.  Today, there is no coordination.  As a matter of fact, many central banks have recently hiked rates and are doing so at the same time that other governments are being more austere to deal with chronic deficits and growing levels of debts.

There is great risk that the Fed’s credibility is already being tested due to concerns that it has provided too much accommodation for too long.  If true, risk seeking has run too far and asset bubbles will have to unwind.  In order to maintain credibility under such a scenario, the Fed should attempt to normalize policy as quickly as possible.  In this light, maybe the Fed should accelerate the pace of backing away from policy accommodation now that an improved economy has given them a window of opportunity.   Such a move could be spun as a signal of their confidence in the recovery.  Certainly, increasing the ‘taper’ is unlikely, but the current snail’s pace takes the QE program into October and risks continuing ‘the taper’ when the economic and political backdrops become less favorable.

March 5:  Herd Mentality – The Left Tail Will Follow the Right Tail

These conclusions partially explain (empirically) the herd mentality and momentum in recent years behind tight credit spreads and elevated equity prices.  Investors are so fearful of missing the upside and underperforming peers that they frantically scramble to remain ahead of them (i.e., seek risk).  However, the conference and paper suggests that there is a threshold point during the Fed’s attempt to normalize policy where the tide reverses and investors join in a sell-off in a race to avoid being left behind.  This is why I’ve been calling it the greater fool theory.

 

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Fri, 04/11/2014 - 17:16 | 4649087 Cattender
Cattender's picture

the Entire Global Economy is slowing...

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 17:20 | 4649102 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

...Since last August, when I said economic activity had peaked.  Nobody cared.  Now all of a sudden, it's fashionable to say "hey, there might be a slow-down going on."  But it's just an excuse.

Economics has little to do with the stock market.  This is the Fed tapering and China removing the (implied) guarantees that previously existed on every 2-bit piece of shit "investment" product in the land.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 17:26 | 4649120 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

We just need to all go buy a new home! Or not. 

 

http://www.housingwire.com/blogs/1-rewired/post/29640-charts-show-exactl...

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 17:45 | 4649178 Unknown Poster
Unknown Poster's picture

QE drove last years 30% ramp in stocks. This is tapering for you. Wait until it escalates quickly.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 17:21 | 4649107 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

When everybody runs for the exits they will find that door is an open

elevator shaft.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 17:42 | 4649170 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    Fantastic analogy Winston. It won't be the proverbial narrow "narrow exit" this time...The herd will be forced over the cliff by the stampede, whether they like it or not.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 17:22 | 4649109 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The entire ramp since 2009 has been based on central bank liquidity (profligacy) and the delusional belief that it is 1983.

 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 18:00 | 4649236 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

1983 merc at my barn that I co-own. The other investor said
don`t sell so I will put that beauty coupe on the road this summer. Play like it is 1983. It ain`t over till it`s over.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 18:05 | 4649238 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

double delete, maintenance gave me strange screens ...

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 17:22 | 4649112 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Musical chairs with the loser getting shitgummed. 

This is not the slowdown in China you are looking for. 

Long floating pigs and nailguns. 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 17:26 | 4649123 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

They have not stopped the music or pulled a chair away for so long those in the game have no clue what to do when the music stops. Deer and headlight come to mind and its going to have an impact. 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 17:40 | 4649164 Cattender
Cattender's picture

Deer in the headlights.. YES! but, listen up Yo.. Whatever you guys and gals do.. DO NOT BUY GOLD or SILVER!!!!! (just buy stock) LOL!!!!

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 17:50 | 4649204 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Stock in gold and silver mines. 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 17:54 | 4649217 Slave
Slave's picture

Long 5.56x45, 7.62x39, 9x19, .40S&W, and .45ACP.

Oh... and gold and silver.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 23:09 | 4650096 naughtius maximus
naughtius maximus's picture

The way you win musical chairs is you throw down everyones chair but yours.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 17:40 | 4649165 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

"the Fed should attempt to normalize policy as quickly as possible."

Too bad the "forward guidance" has been absorbed. Good luck.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 17:51 | 4649207 ronron
ronron's picture

how much of the herd has to run for a crash? 11%?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 17:56 | 4649223 ronron
ronron's picture

most of the money in is leveraged 10-1. so 11% should do it.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 18:02 | 4649244 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

Way back in September I questioned whether we were reaching the turning point. This market has far exceeded the upside expectations of many bulls while the economy has languished and in many respects failed to regain all the ground lost since 2007. The question put forth in the article below is are we reaching the turning point?

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/09/the-turning-point.html

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 18:10 | 4649267 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

Even the DOW twerks, bitchez.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 19:07 | 4649426 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

To crash, or not to crash, all I know is a take my cash and turn it into my stash of more phyz. The End.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 20:06 | 4649562 Kina
Kina's picture

China allowing defaults...maybe seen as the butterfly wings

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 23:08 | 4650093 naughtius maximus
naughtius maximus's picture

I rember back in the late 90s when 300 points fell from the dow its was not an extrodinary day. 150 points down is nothing.

Bull boners to infinity and beyond!

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 08:39 | 4650664 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

Is it the weather?  After all of the cold and ice, everyone is out playing in the sunshine and forgetting to go out and buy their stawks?

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 13:19 | 4651312 DrunkenMonkey
DrunkenMonkey's picture

Long 30y ? Is that it ?

I'd rather have cash than risk getting trapped into a 30y relationship with an American.

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