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Peak "Hope"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The gap between current Q1 reality and forward-looking, hope-stuffed, unicorn-tear-fueled expectations for US economic growth has reached a new peak of Keynesian 'faith'. This week saw "economists" downgrade Q1 GDP expectations once again to a mere 1.6% growth (from 2.6% in January) - meaning that cold weather is responsible for a 46% collapse in US economic growth expectation. As the chart below 'hints' at, it appears we have reached "peak hope."

 

 

h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer

 

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Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:51 | 4649884 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

And the "growth" is the result of massive fudging of numbers to boot.  It's like measuring penis size from the back of the anus.  And speaking of Yellen....

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:52 | 4649890 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Well it's never been cold before so why shouldn't the weather fuck it up?

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 00:54 | 4650269 knukles
knukles's picture

Not all the people in all the world had it colder than normal for a winter, nor even across the entire United States for that matter.
The weather excuse is another fucking joke about temporary transient factors injuring the robust forecasts...
Been goin' on for 8+ years.
It is not temporary, transient, etc...
It is what it is and it 's very poor dislocated sub par growth, period.

And nothings being done to reverse course, unwind the policies imposed over that time which have made things worse, not better.

Regardless of the temperatures out there, its gonna stay really really cold....

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 03:06 | 4650415 Manthong
Manthong's picture

but there is hope and a hero..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VSYmGSJtCA

it's a shame he is not black.

 

What?? Like you want to label truth as racsism?

 

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 10:56 | 4650861 FoodStampPrez
FoodStampPrez's picture

Heating bills in most of the U.S. were INSANE this winter - up 300% from last year - any disposable income went straight to the oil and propane companies.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:55 | 4649901 db51
db51's picture

What?   You're not supposed to measure it from the back of the anus?   Damn.....That 10 just went to 2 so fast it made my head spin.  How do I break the news to the wife?

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 07:17 | 4650580 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

I refuse to use mine as a yardstick. I'm not cutting it in half for anyone.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:28 | 4649979 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Yup.

Remember . . . last July 0.6% was added to GDP via film libraries.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:51 | 4649886 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

Just listen to this slimy son of a bitch

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=of-IX_g7y_4

Now he is even getting cocky about his bc

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:51 | 4649888 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Since official US inflation is at least 3% lower than real inflation, US real GDP has been 3% lower than the official GDP for at least the last generation per Shadowstats.

Welcome to the recession that has been your constant companion since at least 2008.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:54 | 4649897 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Q: Who the fuck (in the real world) gets to keep their job by consistently missing targets by 50%?

A: Economists, academics & politicians.

 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:00 | 4649914 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

Mark Sanchez

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:09 | 4649934 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  I guess that "altruism", Incest is best, is alive and well in D.C. nmewn?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:22 | 4649961 nmewn
nmewn's picture

There is no doubt Yen.

But of course, their definition of altruism is completely different from ours...they confine it to themselves, all in one small, elitist clique.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:31 | 4649988 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Bohemian Groves.  nmewn our day is coming.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 23:12 | 4650103 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Yes, it is...seemingly pretty fast, for those unprepared.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:51 | 4650044 intric8
intric8's picture

Economists are the easiest people in the world to rile up because theyre useless and usually wrong, and they know it, and easily get defensive. Easy Al, Copter Ben and Yellen? THOSE breed of economists operate under a different paradigm, along with the elitest of the elite bankers. They are stone cold and non emotional because they stand to profit no matter what happens to a countries economy.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:56 | 4649904 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

Hope & change Bitchez!

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:59 | 4649909 db51
db51's picture

Just wait until they discover those Corn, Soybean and Wheat Carry Over numbers are Unicorn Ass Shooting Skittles and Rainbows.   That EBT card ain't gonna buy much down at the Save-A-Lot.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:29 | 4649984 SnobGobbler
SnobGobbler's picture

sav-a-lot "steak" is like how they scrape the lining off the stomach and sell it as "suet" trust me, the one near my don't-givà-fuck-about-cottage sells cow at a premium compared to the grocer. pretty sad the people line up fer the shit, blows.my.mind...

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:00 | 4649911 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

Coming soon: peak change

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:07 | 4649927 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Hew Fwiw I was blabbing about this on the bitcoin thread. I actually watched this as it happened. It made me fucking cringe. You guys gotta check this out. This putz blew a million dollars and apparently a car.

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/this-guy-just-lost-1-million-on-wheel-of-fort...

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:18 | 4649953 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Fonz?  As a friend/<> Are you sure you're not still suffering from "Sandi Syndrome?"

  Free houses and free food for the "degenerates" have been known to encite "NORMAL" human dissonance.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:20 | 4649957 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I'm suffering from a lot more than that.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:35 | 4649998 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Apparently I've inherited your (junkster) "remora" Fonz.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:42 | 4650020 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

The junkster remora junked the shark.  Or is that jumped?  I don't know, Babs.  

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:46 | 4650030 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Ok I'm out. Have a good w/e

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:35 | 4650000 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Have a beer.  You'll feel better.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:32 | 4649992 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Bought my first short ever today.  Went cash from the Fall of '08 to the next spring where I bought equity and PM.  Went cash from equity a few weeks ago, then increased gold and silver.  Looking at having half my portfolio PM with a quarter short financials, and with a quarter cash.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:33 | 4649993 SnobGobbler
SnobGobbler's picture

ya know... they were giving free homes to expecting mothers near fukushima.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:31 | 4649987 SnobGobbler
SnobGobbler's picture

fuck bitcoin, dont you people ever stop!

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:21 | 4649959 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Throw darts - you can't miss.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:39 | 4650011 intric8
intric8's picture

TRILLIONS upon TRILLIONS of stimulus over a 7 year period. Where the fuck did that money go? Everyones poorer. Now gdp forecasts dip below 2%? fuck.. [facepalm]

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 23:32 | 4650148 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Not everyone is poorer. Just those of us not on the inside of the game.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 00:27 | 4650223 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   Traders trust your instincts.

  What a great club?

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 00:31 | 4650237 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Gas prices are up over 30 cents where Ilive [in one month] and that has some Burbanites fuming.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 05:23 | 4650512 Wait What
Wait What's picture

4 and a quarter in SoCal at the moment. it's making a lot of drivers positively irritable.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 08:44 | 4650669 d edwards
d edwards's picture

Well, Barry did say that under his plan "energy prices would necessarily SKYROCKET."

 

You can thank him and the f-ing Dems in November.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 01:22 | 4650305 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

On the flip side, any sustained heat waves this summer could rocket GPD up to 5 or 6%.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 01:54 | 4650351 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I don't know about working in the cold but it sure was great for jogging.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 05:21 | 4650511 Wait What
Wait What's picture

who doesn't love a little cold and snow while jogging?

"the perfect texture for running. very low impact and it's dry snow so your feet don't get wet."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPTt6MgsOt8

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 08:51 | 4650675 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

New report linked on Drudge saying 44% of Twitter accounts have never sent a tweet lol

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 12:38 | 4651199 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"This week saw "economists" downgrade Q1 GDP expectations once again to a mere 1.6% growth (from 2.6% in January)"

 

The government just needs to add in more intangibles, to increase GDP growth to 5.6%.

 

"meaning that cold weather is responsible for a 46% collapse in US economic growth expectation."

Cold weather could be used as an intangible to boost the GDP number.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 12:59 | 4651252 elwind45
elwind45's picture

In line with estimates ......yawn

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 17:09 | 4651962 polo007
polo007's picture

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=WALCL

All Federal Reserve Banks - Total Assets, Eliminations from Consolidation

$4.4 trillion

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