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Shipbuilding Orders Evaporate As Baltic Dry Collapses

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The silence is deafening still about the ongoing collapse in the Baltic Dry Index among mainstream media types (as it just might challenge the hope/hype that growth is coming back). At the dismal level of 1002, BDIY is at 8-month lows and has fallen 14 days in a row... but now it is having a real world impact. As Sea News reports, Korean shipping companies are failing to place orders for large vessels and anxiety over the future is forcing some local companies to dispose of their assets despite the relatively low shipbuilding costs as of late.

 

The Baltic Dry is down 14 days in a row at $1002 - its lowest in 8 months (and worst start to a year on record)

 

And As Sea News reports,

Korean shipping companies are failing to place orders for large vessels. Under the circumstances, the domestic shipping industry is expected to get more and more enervated, because major shipbuilding contracts are an effective means for tiding over a slump in the sector. Some of the local companies are even disposing of their assets despite the relatively low shipbuilding costs as of late.

It seems Korea is particularly hard hit since its government won't subsidize the losing proposition like Denmark and China is willing to...

Industry insiders attribute the current situation to the local shipping finance system. An increasing number of governments, such as the Danish and Chinese governments, have provided large-scale funds for the industry in the form of direct loan and payment guarantees since the outbreak of the recent global financial crisis. CMA-CGM, for instance, returned as the world’s third-largest shipping company thanks to US$150 million from the French government.

 

In contrast, the Korean government is providing little shipping finance support. “The establishment of the Shipping Finance Corporation has been foundered and the foundation of the Shipping Guarantee Fund, one of its alternatives, is showing little progress for now,” said Senior Analyst Song Min-joon at the Korea Investors Service.

 

“Our competitors are likely to be steps ahead from late this year, when the vessels will begin to be delivered one after another,” the Korea Shipowners Associations added, continuing, “Then, Korea’s shipping industry will be facing even greater difficulties, unless there are some measures to turn the tables.”

We are sure the fact that the industry has been overbuilt - based on Keynesian-policy-inspired mal-investment and mispriced signals from global markets - will be used as the excuse for the collapsing price of shiiping dry bulk... but that argument s entirely circular and fallacious as it merely reinfoces the unintended consequences of the oh so visible hand in the world's markets and leaves more zombie entities clogging up any potential economic growth that is possible in a world of peak debt.

 

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Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:15 | 4649774 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Looks like the ship really hit the fan with this one.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:17 | 4649780 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

Which ship are they talking about the USA Titanic

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:21 | 4649790 Manthong
Manthong's picture

crud.. thought I was unique with the ship hitting the fan, BUT NO... somebody had to beat me to it. :-)

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:29 | 4649812 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

You got beat by the shipbuilder.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:38 | 4649831 Manthong
Manthong's picture

:-) heh.. heh...   tell me about the rivets and the carbon content of the plate steel.

ooh.. maybe a segue into the temp endurance of the internals of a certain skyscraper on 2001.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:39 | 4649849 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Shipbuilder is slang term for a fag.  I wuz just messin with my friend.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Shipbuilder

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:43 | 4649860 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

it's friday nite.  do you know where your eighth ball is?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:54 | 4649898 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Can't we all just get Amazon Prime and its "poof" gone.  /sarc

This could be a strong indication the world is running down.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxoV48SzZ_s

 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 23:03 | 4650078 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

When they start shipping war armaments all over the world for the BIG ONE, things will pick back up.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:12 | 4649940 dirtyfiles
dirtyfiles's picture

or 9/11 engineering testing

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:36 | 4649838 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Buzz kill.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:56 | 4650059 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

UM...

'Catch Phrase'?

Is this like 'SLIPPERY SLOPE'? 'MARK-TO-MARKET'? 'PARADIGM SHIFT'? 'BEAM ME UP'?

'BUZZ KILL'

John Belushi died from something like this, I guess. He wanted to get, in the American Drug Culture Slang, 'BUZZED', and he was 'speedballing' (injecting a combination of Heroin and Methamphetamines intravenously'). He 'overdosed', and it KILLED him. I've heard the catch-phrase 'BUZZ KILL' thrown around quite a bit, and the meaning and the REALITY of this final solution (did you see the 'catch phrase' usage here?) seems to be lost on some (if this is what 'buzz kill' is discussing, that is).

TWO WORD COMMENTS are not very well 'fleshed out' (ANOTHER 'catch phrase!), as far as intellectual acumen is concerned. I might have just insulted you, Rand, but surely you must understand my point here.

Perhaps, you are trying to say (in fucking texting shorthand) that the BDI, and the shipbuilding orders that are falling, are due to the fact that the people involved, too addicted to the greed and avarice of the 'free money' aspects of business, have overdone their pleasures, and now have to live with the cold, hard fact that they are going to lose a shitload of fake money that they never owned in the first place (it is all claimed by private banking institutions, and those addicted to the pursuit of it are like John Belushi, who pursued getting high to the point that it took his very life).

Saying 'buzz kill' means absolutely NOTHING to a reader (and ZH readership is quite large, and global, and intellectually starved. People are HUNGRY for REAL information and are now flocking to alternet sites such as this, and most are looking at and reading the COMMENTS, Rand. TRUST me. I'm not a doctor. I'm an ENGINEER.) It might as well be 'Mickey Mouse' or 'Greedy Bastards', or 'Serves them right', or something.

D'ya ken, Laddie?

 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 23:13 | 4650079 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

I was just pointing out that Harbanger who responded to my earlier post with the urban dictionary while he was receiving a cleveland steamer and enjoying same is a fucking buzz kill, wet blanket.  But I like your analysis.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 23:14 | 4650109 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

HaHa! Wet blanket is why your mommie had to use plastic bed sheets.  Now that you're all grown up you wear adult diapers.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 23:21 | 4650119 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

No, I'm not putting the oil on the skin, even if I get the Harbanger again.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 23:24 | 4650125 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Don't you have enough oil on your Norwood V.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 23:25 | 4650129 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

I don't know what that means but I'm sure it's funny.  Now go back to the lipstick and the mirror.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 14:57 | 4651559 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Then there's "Over Kill" as in epistle & "Anal Retentive". 

FMR, you're full of yourself.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:38 | 4649848 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

copper is in the shit. bulk shipping is toast. these equity markets are in fantasy land

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:32 | 4649965 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

So is scrap iron, scrap aluminium, and all the scrap crap that IS the biggest export of the good ole' U.S.A. (besides scrap money, that is).

I AM curious, however.

I've seen several back-and-forth arguments over here regarding the BDI (which I have followed for several years now), in regards to the accuracy of it's indications of economic virtues and losses (the old 'ebb and flow' [catch the 'nautical term' here, the TIDES] of the Keynsian Economic Model, if you will).

If the shipbuilding industry (which is ACTUALLY an industry, unlike the 'financial industy') sees and follows the BDI as a leading indicator (which I think they well should), and so on, WHY are there people on ZH who STILL try and poo-poo the BDI as being either 'too slow', 'too unreliable', 'too old-fashioned', or 'too innacurate' regarding these extremely important matters of economic losses and (hopefully, one day) gains? SERIOUSLY?

The 'other models' seem to resemble the USGov's attempt to introduce other methods of accounting that do not seem to reflect reality sometimes. 'Hedonics', the revised 'CPI', the 'core inflation rates' (which work well if you don't eat, drive a car, or use electricity, or buy clothing or buy anything else that you need to stay alive), and, of COURSE, the lie about the 'defecit decreases' over the years (which are all actually decreases in the proposed INCREASES) are some examples.

I would like so see some responses from those here that, in the past, have stated that the BDI was irrelevant, in light of this article, and will also be up to the task of presenting an a well-thought out, verifiable, and logical opposing viewpoint that would convince me to rethink my so-called 'opinion' regarding the BDI (and the way that it truly reflects the REAL WORLD shipping and economic situation as a whole).

I doubt that I'll get any takers. WELL, perhaps some (like the SHIT-COYNE people. 'Fonestar', are you out there?). 'VIRTUAL' models are, well, NOT, how do you say, 'existant in reality'. It's kind of like the NIST simulation model of the collapse of Building 7, on 9/11. It LOOKS cool, but when comparing it to ACTUAL VIDEO FOOTAGE, it has no resemblance AT ALL to what REALLY happened (much like the Discovery Channel's modeling of the collapse of both Twin Towers using the 'pancake theory' fails miserably when watching the videos of the actual collapses).

Oh, yeah...

ZH rocks the world! I thought you should know that I am grateful to have been allowed here for the past 4 or 5 years, just in case. Even YOU, 'Fonestar'... I feel a distubance in the Force, and this internet stuff may not last. NO, NOT ME, but perhaps a larger issue.

 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:34 | 4649995 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

Boy...Don't you know 'nuthin'?  The entire economy of the good 'll US of A is all built on services!  Damn son, you don't need to ship things around to get stuff done anymore.  Just bring the rich folk their food when the cook rings the bell and everythin' will be just hunky dory. 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 23:21 | 4650116 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

Of course, you're right.

CLITTON told me that this is now a 'service economy' (I'm not sure if it was Billary Rodhome or Hilliam Jetson, but ONE of them did).

I'm just listless, tired, withdrawn, and feel like the whole world's using me... but I caught an ad for a new drug by Phuque-ewe Pharmecuticals called 'Soma'. I think I'll ask my doctor about switching. It's like I feel that the line must be drawn, HERE:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jln3mi0vfJU

 

If I can't get my cheap Chinese shit delivered, 'just-in-time' (the catchphrase of the pricks in management skools everywhere was the philosophy of streamlining and saving up-front 'Valuable Company Resources' by calling for 'just-in-time-delivery' of critical raw materials that are necessary for production; thus 'cutting costs' of warehousing these things, back in the mid-1990's. DO YOU REMEMBER THIS? This so-called 'economic philosophy' led to parts of this once-mighty economic juggernaught being DECIMATED!), I might have to go get my fellow slaves and raid a Walmart or something.

WHAT'CHU MEAN, they ain't got no flat-screens in the back room? Let's BURN THIS MOTHER DOWN!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUwEIt9ez7M

SHUT UP, MAN! I got's a job working fo' the man, at Mickey D's!

SHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEIT... (longest word in the Ebonic language)

Muthufukuh! (shortest word in the Ebonic language)

 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 23:28 | 4650139 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

Now you're back into the fold.  Feels much more comfy don't it?   There there.  Ain't nutin' to fuss with on the collapse of that BDI. 'S idea, that'S just a measure of bulk commodities movin' 'round.  Don't stop 'dem flat screens being shipped in 'dat new fangled intermodal transport...  

 

You'll get them flatscreens just as long as some vendor keeps shippin' it on terms.   HEHEHE

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 00:14 | 4650211 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

If the smartphones and flatscreens aren't shipping because they become unaffordable, that interrupts the bread and circus.  They may have to use Maduro economics and force electronic stores to lower prices. 

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 00:23 | 4650224 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

I beg to differ pardner. The screens both large 'n' small wont ship because of a credit lockup in 'da land o the dragon. No financing, no production, no product, no shipping and, finally, bare shelves.

'Dats how I sees it goin' down anyhow.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 02:54 | 4650411 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Check out the Container Ship Index also.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 07:37 | 4650592 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

He's dead Jim.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:27 | 4649803 Manthong
Manthong's picture

..and regarding the USS Titannic..

the bankers will not be celebrating when they realize that fundamentals are finally overcomming their scam sheets. 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 23:30 | 4650142 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

The FedRes bankers, um, I mean, Klingons have a saying.

'Revenge is a dish best served cold.'

It is very cold, in the North Atlantic, in April.

You DO know, of course, why the PARTICULAR industrialists on the Titanic were chosen to die, freezing to death or drowning in the 34 degree (well, 0 degree, if you are all 'metric' and shit) water, don't you?

RETRIBUTION... Well, that one is gonna be really fucking HOT. Payback is a BITCH.

 

I like my avatar. It always reminds me of the events that have led to this.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:12 | 4649939 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

The USA Titanic and also the EU Titanic also with the rest treading water.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:28 | 4649980 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

no reason to ship things if no one is buying

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 23:10 | 4650098 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

I believe that we will be seeing many more "shipping sccidents" and sinkings in the next year or so.  It always happens when shipping becomes unprofitable.

 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:32 | 4649821 Mr Pink
Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:36 | 4649837 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Brown heroin.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 13:28 | 4651340 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

Is this "collapsed to the lowest level since October" collapse or collapse collapse? It's sometimes hard to wade through the hyperbole.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:17 | 4649781 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

slightly bullish - http://hedge.ly/1ephbzY ..

 

iron ore prices tho? 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:18 | 4649784 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Gravity's a bitch.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:19 | 4649789 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

The greeks (known for their shipping) just priced their bonds at 4.75% or whatever and the baltic shipping prices collapse...the irony

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:47 | 4649876 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

yeah, no shit. "welcome to your supertanker of debt."

how many more islands are on the chopping block this time?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:21 | 4649796 kurt
kurt's picture

I repeat:

It was over 9000

We are now skidding along the bottom, have been, nothing new.

The ship's hull is scraping on he coral. A hulk, a bird roost. These are tidal movements on an abandoned beach.

Signifying nothing

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 23:34 | 4650151 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

+1 for the reality team.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:23 | 4649798 seek
seek's picture

Totally off topic, but I just stumbled into this story, and all I got to say is seriously, what the fuck: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/social-security-treasury-target-h...

Pretty sure that's a constitutional violation of the first order.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:35 | 4649833 kurt
kurt's picture

This could turn somebody crazy.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:23 | 4649962 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I posted that link in another thread earlier today as an OT.  Surprised the Tylers haven't latched onto it yet.  My hope is they are taking their time to do a deeper dive.  It's sounded a bit "fluffy" and could have used some more evidence before declaring "emergency".  But, yeah, it's more than a bit troubling when the children are tapped to pay the parents' debts (real or imagined, as determined solely by the IRS, with no recourse).

 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:35 | 4649999 seek
seek's picture

If I'd have spotted your link I'd have upvoted and commented for sure.

Ignoring everything else in the article, just the removal of the time limit on debt collection is more than enough to warrant Tyler reporting on this. And if the going after family members is true, then it's really over the top. Where does it stop? Just your children, or if the parent's debt is unpaid from 1950 and assigned to the kids, and then the kids don't pay the debts, does it get assigned to the grandchildren?

Seriously, once you can assign parental debt to children, they could go back to the revolutionary war and claim the Nth generation owes back taxes from 1795 plus interest and fines -- and that's not hyperbole, all they need is the ability to assign parental debt to children without a statute of limitations on the debt, and the rest comes automatically. They could backdoor their way to seizing virtually anyone's accounts.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 01:33 | 4650321 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Like this is new?

Look at the debt we're passing to our grand, and great-grand, children.

The vermin in government WILL be after their dough long after we're dried up corpses on the side of a desert road.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 07:46 | 4650606 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

A friend of mine inherited his fathers business in the UK.The father packratted all the company

accounts/invoices etc from 1936.My friend got audited by the Inland Revenue, and because

the records were there ,they went all the way back, and bankrupted the company for tax owed

from the 30's and 40's.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:36 | 4649841 infinity8
infinity8's picture

Thanks for that - I have a good friend that got a letter from IRS @ 2 weeks ago that he owes some thousands of dollars from 2004 and he has no idea wtf they're talking about. Doesn't talk about it being an "old" debt. No additional info yet but, I sent him this. He's mostly 1099's and has a foreign-sounding last name that has had income that wasn't his reported but, that got resolved a few years ago. Interesting.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:42 | 4649862 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Sorry "seek," but I thought that this was so important that I would highlight it a bit more.

Gene Rayburn: "The DC US is so broke..."

Audience: "How broke are they?"

Gene Rayburn: "Well, they are now raiding the people's refunds and accounts after over 30 years for conjured up debts of their parents. That's how broke they are."

 

Now, Social Security claims it overpaid someone in the Grice family — it’s not sure who — in 1977. After 37 years of silence, four years after Sadie Grice died, the government is coming after her daughter. Why the feds chose to take Mary’s money, rather than her surviving siblings’, is a mystery...

The aggressive effort to collect old debts started three years ago — the result of a single sentence tucked into the farm bill lifting the 10-year statute of limitations on old debts to Uncle Sam.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/social-security-treasury-target-h...

In addition to the other criminality involved, "Ex post facto laws are expressly forbidden by the United States Constitution in Article 1, Section 9, Clause 3."

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:45 | 4649873 seek
seek's picture

Not only ex-post-facto, but there's an implied ban on "corruption by blood" as well.

There's just simply no way a minor child can be held responsible for debts of the parents, regardless of the legality of the debt.

I swear, they really are trying to provoke people.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:27 | 4649978 Van Halen
Van Halen's picture

What the government is learning is that no one will stand up to them about almost anything. So they're just throwing new laws at the wall to see what sticks. Sure, it's all unconstitutional. But they have endless funds, the courts, thousands of trained lawyers, and all the time in the world. You've got whatever you got in the bank and whatever lawyer you can afford. Good luck.

 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:36 | 4650003 seek
seek's picture

Oh, we've got other things, too, but I don't want to be put on any more watchlists than I already have this week, and will leave it to the imagination.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 00:33 | 4650196 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

Did you ever listen to the early 'Van Halen' stuff? Some of the music (especially the FIRST album, entitled (surprisingly!) 'Van Halen') was fairly good.

Here's one cut from a later album, in 1981, the name was 'FAIR WARNING' on this one (I think it was the third album):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2R2KXNQR1M

Put on your Koss K2A headphones (or whatever), and dial up the volume. The album cover art is quite, well, telling.

FUCK the WATCHLISTS, and THOSE WHO COMPILE THEM! Don't be a pussy, there, owl.

I found some 5.56 x 45 armor piercing NATO rounds recently (NO, they're NOT rated for .223, but they work, and have a little more kick), just for fun times with small PPD plinking. A few hundred or so... I've shared them with others, and they are reporting that the expendables seem to be living up to the claims by the seller.

Let's have a little more Van Halen, just to take the edge off:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuyvT8nFMLY

US.GOV.BANK-INC. knows that the BEST defense of their little shitscreen is a GOOD OFFENCE, 'seek'. Those MRAPS being 'granted' to places like Preston, Idaho and that small town in Iowa with a population of 7,000 are examples of their philosophy, don't you think?

Sometimes, like Red Adair did, you just have to fight fire with fire, don't you agree?

Van Halen was actually slightly pussified, in my opinion of 'bands'. Sometimes, a full frontal assault is required.

A little classic METALLICA is in order, now. SHIT! Fight FIRE with FIRE:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnCFWlso-UQ

As far as 'watchlists' and 'I'm scared' and stuff, I regret that I have only one life to give for my (former) country. Many honorable and renowned men (and, well, a few women too) have paved the road that I am embracing, and I shall not fail them.

WHO is this 'WE' that you speak of, anyway? You sound as though 'YOU' are some mythical man, speaking for the 'GREAT UNKNOWN PEOPLES' here. WE have stuff... , but I dont want to... Kind of like a 'controlled opposition' statement, in further logical analysis...

That WE thing was YOU (and the mouse in your pocket), I think. SAY, WHICH military base are you stationed at, again?

Chernoybl is in the former Soviet state of Ukraine, you know. When it blew the fuck up and irradiated most of Europe, Metallica made a video of this event. Your MIC pussified comment is a perfect reason to post another video/audio, regarding this. Better versions were available once, but they have long since been purged by GOOKLETUBE, you silly man. When the view counts hit 35 MILLION or so, the PTB decided to write computer scripts to enable CHICOM (COSCO), INC. to 'CENSOR' any videos that they decided were 'offensive' to THEM, back in mid-2007:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odbqwG7FrIc

LOOK at CHERNOYBL.

WITNESS, Unbeliever, and be DISMAYED. (Sorry, an obscure reference to a series of books called 'The Chronicles Of Thomas Covenant', which I absorbed like a sponge upon their first release)

THIS is YOUR future, unless you stop listening to that mouse in your pocket and MAN UP to RESIST what is being done to you, and I, and EVERYONE across the globe.

You're not gonna tell us... are you? Is it because there is nothing?

 

 

 

 

 

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 00:52 | 4650263 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

I can be a real son-of-a-bitch, sometimes.

I have to call them as I see them, though, because the best outcome for the most people is far more desirable than the death of most, for the temporary gain of a few cowardly.

Any responses to my call for the BDI deniers to debate the reality, yet?

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 00:59 | 4650276 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

No offence meant, Van Halen.

I thought you should know.

Van Halen was actually slightly pussified, in my opinion of 'bands'. Sometimes, a full frontal assault is required.

Yes, I posted that in a comment...

It sems as though I am unchained. Nothing stays the same, you know.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xx86CxKYtg0

 

 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:49 | 4650038 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

This is not all that new.

An elderly nursing home patient who spends down assets until zero (excepting the family house in which his spouse still lives) will then have Medicaid pay for the nursing home fees.

The house will not be confiscated while the spouse lives there.  When she dies, however, and tries to pass it along to children as inheritance BOOM. 

It will then be confiscated.  The kids will not get that inheritance if the nursing home bills paid by Medicaid exceed the value of the house.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 01:11 | 4650287 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

I'll continue the responses and Van Halen theme here, if you don't mind, CIO.

Everybody Wants Some.

Try listening to the lyrics, and the half-note-down recording.

It's presciently predictive programming, you know, CIO.

Look, I'll pay you for it. What the fuck... This shit came out way back, in the early eighties, if I'm wrong or right.

Everybody wants some. I want some, too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bZmGtaqP68

RIP, Rob Geldorf.

 

 

 

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 06:49 | 4650565 doctor10
doctor10's picture

could be wrong here-but isn't this precisely why we have the Second Ammendment? /s

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 07:42 | 4650598 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

LOL

Lemme tell ya bub.

I have a friend that has to register as a sex offender.

His "crime" was committed 25 years ago. NO victims, nothing done to anyone.

BUT...post facto, when the fuckers in power rolled out those sex offender laws, HE had to comply. They went back 20 years (UN-Constitutional, of course, but hey - these are all "child molesters"), so it's OK.

FEAR motherfuckers....CONTROL.

NO one cared about their rights, and the smartest people in the room did nothing.

So the fuckers in power are now OK with applying ex-post facto to EVERYTHING.

Game over suckers. You give these cunts an inch, and they'll take every fucking thing away.

FUCK lawyers and these shit-eating politicians that do and get away with this shit.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 23:09 | 4650094 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

Filial Responsibility is going to be a very, very large elephant in many people's rooms in the very near future.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/carolynrosenblatt/2012/05/21/son-hit-with-ag...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/northwesternmutual/2014/02/03/who-will-pay-f...

 

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 10:32 | 4650807 Catullus
Catullus's picture

I had something similar happen to me.  The Navy claimed they overpaid me over a decade ago. DFAS sent a letter to some address from before I joined the service. They eventually sent a debt agency after me. I wrote the debt agency back and said "show me something that I signed that says I promised to pay anything." The debt agency will go away, but then DFAS remits it to Treasury who holds your tax returns. They also charge interest on the money you owe, backdated to when you incurred it. You have no way of knowing what this interest rate is.

Bullshit thing about it is that you can't challenge this decision in any way. I talked to an attorney about it, he said you could go through administrative law, but good luck. Your only recourse is to send strongly worded letters to a government agency that has no way of gettig rid of the debt. So it both dings your credit and they take your tax returns. Here's the bitch about it though: if you pay them, there's no way to know that the debt is done. You're trusting that at some point the debt doesn't resurface when they convert over records or something.  Show them you paid it a decade ago... "Uh, we have no record of you paying.  Pay up." They never bring the debt before a court. Never make a judgement against you for you to challenge.

For those of you getting gubmint student loans... good luck. There's no way you're ever going to truly know you've paid that off. Just call it what it is: a tax rider for having attended college.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 15:32 | 4651625 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

I feel certain the NSA will have this ironed out in no time. Proof & all.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:29 | 4649805 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 According to CNBS and their "Petticoat Junction" crew , we should all be drinking Cristal(magnums) on piles of nFLX reruns.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 01:36 | 4650314 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

It looks like the PMSNBCBS crew is downvoting you, Yen.

Some of the early defectors were working on PMSNBC shows, like 'Magnum, P.I', by the way.

'PAY-PER-VIEW' like NETFLIX only REALLY worked with T.V shows made by HBO, and PORN stuff. The PTB (PPV) wannabes never figured this fact out, however.

It's PMSNCBSoft, not PMSNBC. 'CNBS' is reserved for the Communist National Broadcasting System (based out of Arlington, VA., with affiliates in Haifa, Israel). Their attack-dog copyright lawyers in Bollywoodland are lining up right now, preparing to make your life a living hell, by simply hyperlinking THEIR 'domained eminently valuable properties'.

(This posting copyrighted 2014, MontgomeryScott. All reposts or usage of any hyperlinks within is claimed by MontgomeryScott, and any downarrows or negative responses will be met by extreme lawyer-upping from the party of the first part. My attorney said I should say this, and I always do what he says, even though I lost a quarter-million [closer to a half-mil, but I can't keep track any more] on the divorce that he promised was going to come out in my favor. Any resemblance to the Chief Engineer on board the starship Enterprise is purely intentional. TITANIC pictures and posts are wholly owned by those who were murdered on April 15, 1912.)

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:33 | 4649822 headless blogger
headless blogger's picture

I'm laying my bet that by October 2014 the U.S. will be in full blown systemic collapse.

 

 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:03 | 4649920 10mm
10mm's picture

Your to generous.  Also ammo prices cont to rise. Just look.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:39 | 4649845 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Bailout 2.0 in the works; I mean, will they let Banksters and the Corporatocracy fall?

No, once this bubble pops it will be:  crash>bailouts>justifications>"eat it, serfs".

What will the populace of the world do, vote?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:53 | 4649892 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

voting doesn't sound like the in thing this go around.

i agree with this as "sentiment"...but how do interest rates go any lower and create a recovery here?

Isn't this EXACTLY the problem Japan faced after their collapse almost 30 years ago now?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:58 | 4649908 seek
seek's picture

NO bailouts this go round. Bail INs!

They're going to suck people's bank and 401K accounts in this next cycle. Count on it. The legal authority was put into Dodd-Frank, and that kind of thing doesn't happen by accident.

After this go-round, trust me, the serfs will not be eating. Anything.

(Unless they vote the right way, then they'll get a EBT card.)

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:41 | 4649858 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Why not use the boats to ship all the Chinese junk back to China. That would help. Nobody needs more freakin junk.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 01:38 | 4650328 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

You are proposing using Chinese Junks to ship Chinese Junk back to China? WTF?

(sarc)

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:41 | 4649859 Ifigenia
Ifigenia's picture

with silk road running in Eurasia, who need ships?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:44 | 4649867 walküre
walküre's picture

How much steel was produced and used to build the ships over the past 4 years? How much concrete to build the ghost towns in China? All that consumption of materials is STALLING. There's nothing to recover when nothing of magnitude gets build. London has 200 skyscapers in the making, lots of holes already in the ground... until Lehman 2.0 collapses the financing. 2014 looks like the year where $105 oil is 2008 $150 oil.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:47 | 4649877 belogical
belogical's picture

I know someone in shipping and they told me that the three largest US shippers are working together to share one ship and cut cost. None  of them have enough to fill one large ship, so dividing it up saves them all.

Ship builders and shippers in general will suffer though

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 01:46 | 4650340 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

Well, my broker is E.F. Hutton, and E,F. Hutton says...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MXqb1a3Apg

I ALSO know someone in shipping (well, until he quit Amazon.com, anyway), and we were talking just the other night (after shooting some horse and fucking a couple of hoes) and HE said... there is only one U.S. ship, (REALLY!), and there are only three U.S. shippers. When we got done ship-talking, the hoes told us to pay or play, and we PLAYD (of course).

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 21:55 | 4649887 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Anyways, I go into my list of trading indexes. Someone Special gave me this index.

  Sub Indexes are hurting.

 http://www.cassinfo.com/Transportation-Expense-Management/Supply-Chain-A...

 http://logisticsquarterly.com/freightindex/

 http://www.miramarshipindex.org.nz/

  FUCK GOOGLE!

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 02:13 | 4650374 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

Website started in 2006. THUS, a long history, I suppose (going on eight whole years of historical analysis!). NZ, the Kiwis, for God's sake...

LQ is a little better. It's been around since '95 (about the time when 19-year-olds were shitting thier diapers), up in the Great White North.

CASS is REALLY, REALLY old. How many here remember the eve of Gulf War One? Can I see a show of hands? The CONUS took 14 months to initiate this one, because they had a whole bunch of rusting hulks (formerly known as 'Liberty Ships') sitting in harbors and SINKING at their moorings, so they couldn't figure out how to try to stop Saddam Hussein from breaking away from the OPEC thingie agreement... I like to call this one 'Momma Cass'! She's 24 now, and still pushing out new illegal anchor babies...

When I GO to my 'trading indexes', it's a little more graphic.

How many feds will this sucker take to give me his (land, freedom, fedscrip futures)? Can I get an option to fuck his wife and children over (and over, again), in an unspecified futures contract that I might draft? IF I can get him to sign up to 'newspeak' clauses, how long will it be before he starts to understand that I fucked him LEGALLY, and how much will it cost me to hire a team of crack lawyers to put him down? IF he decides to play along to the Bitter End, will he still agree that we have a legal contract in the end? Ultimately, we will both die, and it doesn't really matter, Yen...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yw1Tgj9-VU

You have nothing to prove, and no information that shows anything but futility, Yen Cross.

These 'websites' are mere CHILDREN. It's like the blind, leading the blind; or like a five-year-old telling another five-year-old what REALITY consists of.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:02 | 4649917 10mm
10mm's picture

There she blows mate.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:14 | 4649943 homiegot
homiegot's picture

Too many godamn boats.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 02:28 | 4650381 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

Not enough water to float them.

The tide comes in. The tide goes out.

A rising tide floats all the boats.

THEY forgot to tell YOU about what an ebbing tide does.

SHIT!

NOW, you blame those who try to float their boats. I suppose that YOUR boat is 'MORE IMPORTANT' than your neighbor's boat.

 

You are losing your life, and the essence of that which you were created to be. Your fellow human beings, and the love of them, will reciprocate, if you make an effort.

Aren't you concerned that when you die, your life will be remembered by a lone mourner (or, most likely, NO mourners), and a quick creamation, followed by NOTHING?

I personally can't decide, but I'm not going to the place you are in now, EVER.

I choose LIFE, in spite of what it costs me.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YxaaGgTQYM

Those who trade in the souls of men will meet a fate worse than imagined.

 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:31 | 4649989 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

The "shipping" bubble has burst?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:38 | 4650010 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Interesting times.

Nobody can be truly prepared.

You are only at risk of death when you are alive.

I think I'll just stand back and watch, when I'm not just enjoying the ride.

 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:43 | 4650022 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   I like the down votes. The world pretty much "hates" United States policy and statesmanship.

   I deserve the downvotes from an "global perspective". Who would know any different?

  Who would know that over 80% of the population is against WAR?

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 02:40 | 4650396 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

Being 'against war' is a good thing?

Being unwilling to FIGHT against those who love war is the perspective that is apparent.

The first statement indicates cowardice.

A coward runs away, and is unwilling to stand against that which has vowed to destroy him. Death is a quick respite for the likes of this.

Um...

One who actually ENJOYS being shown to be unpopular or ineffectual is truly a sick individual. In the olden days, this would be referred to by more civilized people as a 'Martyrdom Complex'. Nowadays, Penelope's House Of Pain And Pleasure is there for you, 24/7, and you'd BETTER call them RIGHT THE FUCK NOW, slave, or ELSE!

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 07:03 | 4656168 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

well, i just love that MOST of those who cheerlead war never spent a day in the service; I love it how Sylvester Stalone dodged the draft, moved to Sweeden to make porn movies thatn comes back as a flag waving super patriotic warrior hero in RAMBO

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 16:05 | 4662478 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

Jesus, I don't know how stupid you are, but in the movie "First Blood" (not Rambo, you simpleton), Stallone played a war vet who was shut off from society, and felt his country had betrayed him and his fellow soldiers. "Flag waving"? "Super patriotic?"... you must be one of those imbeciles who thinks Springsteen's "Born in the USA" is a celebration.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 22:45 | 4650025 naughtius maximus
naughtius maximus's picture

Bullish news as always

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 23:43 | 4650161 Magnum
Magnum's picture

I remember in the mid 90s when everyone talked about the massive numbers of shipping containers and vessels being manufactured, it was a type of doomsday outlook way back then, only production just kept skyrocketing. Is it finally slowing down?

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 00:59 | 4650275 10mm
10mm's picture

Im encountering way too many people with happy smiles on faces still. Until that changes, it's all good.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 02:55 | 4650413 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

SO, 10mm, you've been here for 2 years and sixteen weeks, I see.

The bag over your face belies your intent, though.

You can't POSSIBLY see 'way too many people with smiles on their faces', when you are wearing a brown bag lunch thing (unless it is a pair of stockings with eyeholes cut out to allow you to see everything within a 10-degree view). The smell of Bologna sandwiches and apples must be quite stifling, by now.

Can I call you '.3937'? That sems a little more, well, 'personal'. 10-millimeter. IF you'd rather be rounded down to the simpler '3/8ths' (',375'), or UP to the more powerful '7/16ths' ('.4375'), then, it's YOUR call (as long as the phone doesn't ring in that annoying double tone of the Europe of the 1960's).

:)

 

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 11:58 | 4651061 new game
new game's picture

i just traveled 6000 miles and encountered 100's- talked to many. mostly engulfed in there own world of chasing a buck.

some looked like they were enjoying the chase. plenty enjoying the fruits of past chase. the attitudes were up beat, possibly hiding their true fealings. i don't know for sure. a few agreed that things are fucked, but if i ever encounter you, m.s., it sure will be fun...

too much witt? bourbon? keep you bulk index dry for the great whooooooooooosh. s and p 1760ish i believe.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 02:15 | 4650375 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valemax

These massive new ships are probably the reason why BDI has been dropping.  (in addition to potential lower demand)

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 04:24 | 4650488 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

The HARPEX Index is superior to the Baltic Dry Index!

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2012/03/23/the-harpex-index-is-superi...

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 06:53 | 4650572 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

I wouldn't say it is superior...it is different. BDI measures mostly raw materials where the HARPEX tracks more finished goods. Taken together they give a very good picture of what goes in and what comes out.

5 yr HARPEX to give perspective on that improving world economy. Either suddenly everyone is internally consuming or the claimers of recovery are outright lying as well as manipulating govt numbers.
http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexRH.do?timePeriod=Years5&&data...

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 04:28 | 4650490 goldhedge
goldhedge's picture

long warship building

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 07:39 | 4650594 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

Well, the free-market types always argue that government interference leads to less profitable business adventures.  I wonder how the Jones Act will be gutted due to the BDI flatlining -  making it unprofitable for even foreign shippers to take ladings.  I am not sure how many breakbulk ships we need for raw material import, but we certainly need them for grain export.  Of course we don't really need much in the way of finished goods shipping, do we?

 

The only solution for putting those idle ships to work is innovation.  Going back to the 1600's and 1700's, I figure that we can transport labor.  Yup, if so much of our industry has been offshored due to labor costs, let's send a few PanaMax ships over to Asia and bring back some cheap labor!  Won't be long before our factories will be humming along and our export piers stacked to the crane jibs!

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 08:21 | 4650647 d edwards
d edwards's picture

Global economic collapse in slow-mo.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 11:48 | 4651009 thestarl
thestarl's picture

Well it started last Monday morning.I work in the underground coal industry in Oz for one of the big two.The first wave of staff retrenchments in what the company spin doctor descibed as phase one.

The next "phase" will involve contractors in three weeks then at the end of the financial year the gloves will come off again for staff/wages.We produce high quality met coal but with the high Oz dollar and glut of steel/cement things looking decidedly bleak in the short term.

The SOE ie. Chinese steel industry is definately the proverbial pig in the pythons belly and how China in general can avoid a hard landing well is beyond me.To quote any number of brother/sister ZH'ers this ends badly.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 12:01 | 4651073 Vin
Vin's picture

Baltic Dry Index has been much lower.

Sat, 04/12/2014 - 12:05 | 4651088 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Yep...it was called a recession. This level is WITH massive global government and central bank intervention.

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