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What's Wrong With This "Housing Recovery" Picture?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We asked this question a quarter ago following the quarterly results by Wells Fargo - America's biggest mortgage lender - but we never got an appropriate answer. So now that the data has been updated for the latest Wells mortgage origination and application numbers, we ask the question again: considering both mortgage originations and applications are crashing to levels not seen since the Lehman crisis, just what is wrong with this "housing recovery" picture?

Mortgage originations:

Mortgage applications:

And a bonus chart: remember when in late 2013 and early 2014 the pundits (probably the same ones who said it was a "stock picker's market") were screeching daily how bank Net Interest Margins were set to soar. Can they please comment on the following Wells NIM chart?

Source: Wells Fargo

 

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Fri, 04/11/2014 - 08:54 | 4646932 One And Only
One And Only's picture

Who needs a mortgage when you can rent from Blackstone?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:02 | 4646967 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Who needs a mortgage when you can simply squat in just about any home you want?  -  fixed.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:10 | 4646997 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

especially when the Fed owns to mortgage and wont do anything about it.  your fellow taxpayers are paying for it, but who really cares?  more power to those doing this.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:16 | 4647021 JailBank
JailBank's picture

Wells is not going to approve mortgages if they believe Freddie/Fannie won't be there to pass the bad loans off to. I have a pal in Des Moines and that is his job for Wells. Look at the mortgages approved. The worst ones get sold to Freddie/Fannie while the best stay on Wells books. Nice work if you have a group of dumbass govt workers buying the crap on the other end.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:41 | 4647107 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

Oh man. You're telling me the shrinking NIM represents the GOOD loanz?? Uggh

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 10:55 | 4647421 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

The slow stratification of the country accelerates.  Money builds up in the major and coastal cities while the suburbs and countryside get blighted.  Past the income inequality trend, it's about cheap gas coming to an end.  No more joy rides, no more driving 40 miles to work, none of that makes sense at over $4 gallon with wages shrinking.  In 20 years there will be more skyscrapers surrounded by wastelands than we can imagine.  

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 14:29 | 4648277 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

Here is the tragic result of Fed intervention to support the housing market.  First off realize that home ownership has been drilled into us as part of the American dream.  American's aspire to own homes for a number of reasons:  1. Pride as an example of being successful, 2. Stability in that as an owner your rent won't go up and no one can kick you out, 3. Security as residential real estate has historically (untll recent times) been a safe place to store wealth.  

What has happened is that the Fed with its cheap money policy coupled with stricter underwriting criteria (which should have always been this way) has killed the market for the individual homebuyer - the heart of a healthy and robust market.  They have replaced the indivdual buyer with investor buyers and in mst cases all cash investor buyers.  Tell me how healthy a market is that is driven by all cash buyers and then add investor into the equation?

Homeownership has always been a pillar of hope in the American dream. It is a visceral part of our national identity and it has been a source of pride that until recently we have used as one of our boasts to the rest of the world of why America is great. It is now gone.  The current adminstration's policies have failed miserably, in part because I do not think our president understands the pulse of the American psyche.

What we have is a brain dead patient being kept alive on life support - the patient is the housing market and the life support is the fed.  It is costing a fortune to keep this patient 'alive' and draining resources with the hope the patient will make a miraculous recovery.  I say let nature take its course, let the patient live or die on its own and stop wasting valuable resources that coud be used in so many more positive ways.

This story won't end well, its just a matter of time before it all grinds to a halt and implodes on its own weight.  Bankers who broke no laws but are guilty of moral and ethical misdeeds need to be identified and cast out (there is a long list here...). Politicians who manipulated the market with e-z loans for unqualified borrowers to buy votes need to be cast out as well (I'm talking about you and your friends Barney).

The market needs to be allowed to balance itself and to start over with thoughtful policy and regulation that creates a stable environment for ownership, equity growth and the pride of ownership.  The Fed needs to back off its cheap money policies and let the real estate market 'correct' itself.  Correct..that's a good word.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 15:13 | 4648574 failure to perform
failure to perform's picture

Love your name and the second last paragraph. I'd love nothing more than seeing all those evil fucks be forced to live in substandard housing in the worst of the worst neighborhoods and let there be vigilante justice.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:17 | 4647023 Tabarnaque
Tabarnaque's picture

The recovery has been so good that people no longer need a mortgage to buy a house. They buy cash instead. Every body knows that, right?! sarc.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:40 | 4647101 JailBank
JailBank's picture

I used shares of Tesla to buy a doublewide. Have my very own slab of concrete overlooking a tractor pull pit. Living the life.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:44 | 4647125 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

At least you probably know your neighbors and get along, most of the time.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 10:04 | 4647220 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

When I went in to the local convenience store the other day, I asked the clerk how he was doing. He said sarcastically " Oh,just living the American Dream. In another 5 years I can make what, maybe $1.25 an hour more?"  He's from Nigeria. It's pretty bad when a Nigerian refugee is whining about our economy.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 10:46 | 4647417 therearetoomany...
therearetoomanyidiots's picture

"If I wanted this I coulda just stayed home!"  -Nigerian refugee working in local convenience store

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 13:18 | 4648036 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

It's been 10+ years, but this was the exact sentiment from every foreign student I encountered in post graduate studies...  "I thought it was going to be like the tv show Dallas."  They were universally underwhelmed.  Of course, it's BFE, but still not a third world country by any stretch...  I got this from folks across the entire gambit, from belgium to pakistan...

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 15:04 | 4648512 Twaddlefree
Twaddlefree's picture

Which is better, being dead or imprisoned in Nigeria or alive in America? 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 12:10 | 4647793 Pemaquid
Pemaquid's picture

Send him home.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:43 | 4647122 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

I don't play this chirade of a market - But, I'm calling it NOW; The Fed has very little patience in watching this fraud melt down, today they will pull the trigger with a huge liquidity pump.

Watch. By 11:00 am EST....Dow will be GREEEEEEN. Shazzam! No problem - FIXED!

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:20 | 4647571 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

WAALAA! When am I gonna miss one?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 15:07 | 4648544 Twaddlefree
Twaddlefree's picture

Perhaps, now....3:08 pm....when the market is down over 140????

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:15 | 4647014 ChanceIs
ChanceIs's picture

What is the average squatting duration these days?  I think ZH had an article on it about a month ago.  I believe it was two plus years.  That is to say the average time (locale dependent of course) betwen when a former owner made the last mortgage payment and the time the sheriff knocked on the door was two plus years.

Back in the '89 boom I sold a condo to "move up" to buy a house.  Did it slightly after that bubble peak - took about six years to get even.  Anyway, I held a second on the condo.  Purchaserer defaulted.  It took me about 18 months to foreclose and get the sheriff to throw the "illegal detainees" out.  I had to be there.  He pulled his gun before he kncked on the door.  I melted into the wall.  Nothing came of it.  They left peacefully and didn't trash the place.  Just saying, when I saw that piece come out, I was beginning to think that I should have just walked away from the deal.  You know...life is more precious.

Having said that and had that experience, anybody who said that the whole '05 bubble was a 100 year event that nobody could have seen is either a total idiot or has no market experience - or a bankster shill.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:28 | 4647611 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"It took me about 18 months to foreclose and get the sheriff to throw the "illegal detainees""

Yup thats very common. A friend of mine had a simular experience. The renter turned squarter sold all of the furniture and applicances for cash. Needless my friend did want to wait the 18 month eviction process. He waited for the squatter to go out, then proceeded get a dumpster delivered and tossed all of the squatters possession in the condo and changed the locks.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 13:04 | 4647975 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

I think you two are talking about different things.

 

A tenant, who never owned the home, or is staying past the foreclosure sale, is evicted, takes about a month, maybe two to get the sheriff there to cart out the shit. 

 

A foreclosure to take back property owned by someone, takes about a year to 18 months (judicial state, some are much faster). Of course, if the person doesn't move out after the property is sold at auction, then you have to evict them.

 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 13:42 | 4648116 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Bingo.  I'll have a tenant out in 3 weeks or less (landlord friendly state, but still use the old unlawful detainer statutes)...  [In my jurisdiction, tenants who want to contest an eviction have to pony the back rent into the registry of the court or they don't get to defend the suit...  tends to make quick work of the bullshitters].  Foreclosures are usually 6+ months...  although, I recently "successfully" defended a foreclosure suit from a TBTF...  show me the note fuckers...  the parties ended up with a settlement after a much longer dispute.  Generally speaking, foreclosures are all about priority rather than the Defendant(s) having some legitimate defense.  Most all of the foreclosures I've been a part of (both sides) have been notes that were never sold up the food chain.   

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 13:33 | 4648079 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

If it's a bank-owned foreclosure, you might have up to 4 years since they want to keep those foreclosures on their books at mark-to-model valuations.  If they actually put the house on the market, there's price discovery.   They don't want that.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 13:44 | 4648135 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Especially if it's a local bank that has too much exposure on your loans... 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:24 | 4647044 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Come to the DC area. Any house that was $450k two years ago now has multiple offers at $650k. Shit is ridiculous. GD money thieving carpet baggers.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:32 | 4647066 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Come to Houston or Austin or Dallas...bulers are offering so many incentives it's crazy.

As it gets worse and the housing market slows to a crawl, and they offer "Two-4-One" I may jump in.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:41 | 4647110 Zerozen
Zerozen's picture

Don't know which Houston you're in, but in the one I'm in, housing has become unaffordable in most any decent place in the city, especially so inside the Loop. The house my wife and I bought in Dec '12 has supposedly appreciated by 20%, based on comp sales. Our realtor has called a couple of times asking if we might be interested in selling and making a quick $100k. It's full-retard crazy.

Who is paying these prices? Transplants from Cali and northerneastern states.

The conception that rising home values are a good thing is a total canard. It does nothing to improve your quality of life, not unless you sell to realize the profit and then move away to somewhere cheaper...but it sure hurts your pocketbook when the property tax assessor does his yearly rounds.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:52 | 4647159 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Agreed. I hear Austin is insane right now too. Did not know about Houston as it's such a shithole I can't believe anyone would even want to live there.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 10:30 | 4647343 Zerozen
Zerozen's picture

Shithole? That would mean things are broken, city services don't work, there's a lot of blight, etc. I think a better description is 'urban wasteland'. So, a Texan Los Angeles, but with flat topography, hurricanes instead of earthquakes, and lots of allergens.

This town is swimming in money right now. Every other middle-aged professional drives a 911, they're a dime a dozen. Not that I believe this will continue, but at current growth rates the population of the city is supposed to double by 2035. It's bubblicious!

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:14 | 4647544 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

I would love for the value of my house to go to one dollar. I would still live there but my taxes would drop significantly. Deflation has many advantages....unless your a banker. 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 13:35 | 4648086 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

Agree, Zerozen -- Houston is no Detroit, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Newark, etc.   An urban wasteland it surely is.  Plus all that toxic oil industry nearby.   At least in Los Angeles, they have mountains, ocean and deserts nearby.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:02 | 4647457 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Austin has turned to crap. It's even rated as "The Most Congested Mid-Sized American City."

Crime downtown has skyrocketed and daily pollution alerts are usually moderate to severe. I moved out of there a few years ago when I saw this and moved to a cleaner, safer area. Interstingly, as the poster above said people from Cali and the north are the majority there now. The local newspaper has done two polls downtown and 80% of the people they stopped on the street were from Cali, usually LA. They also said more then 80% of the downtown condo owners are from Cali. Crazy. Austin Natives [the few ho are still there] call Austin "The Little LA."

As far as RE, they are flooding the market with hundreds of apartments complexes there and I read builders will add over 8,000 houses just north of Austin. I don;t see prices there rising much more anymore. Most likely will correct at some point more towards the hisotric mean.

The Houston burbs (Woodlands, Cinco Ranch, Cross Creek, etc) are nice but downtown still stinks. Job creation there is still crazy strong.

Dallas has sucked for a long time. Fort Worth is nicer.

 

Just goes to show 'all RE is local."

BoooYaaahhhh!

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:54 | 4647171 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

There's never a recession in Washington, DC.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 13:20 | 4648044 AmericasCicero
AmericasCicero's picture

It would seem so, but I pass more and more homeless people in McPherson Sq each day.  Pigeons looking for K st crums.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 13:40 | 4648107 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

During the Hoover/FDR depression, FDR got, and Washington was flooded by, Dollar-A-Year men. They came from weathy families, were self made wealthy and did what the could do to alleviate The Depression for no salary, just a dollar a year. No in Versailles On The Potomac you can't get your affirmative action, transgendered, in by 9 out by 3, illiterate clerk for under $100k/yr.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 10:38 | 4647327 Bunders
Bunders's picture

I guess what remains of the middle class is willing to pay top dollar to move away from the nouveau poor before the value of their property is detroited by contagion / association.

If your parents pass and leave you an inheritance are you thinking early retirement in this neighborhood or keep working and move somewhere you can be reasonably confident that your neighbors are on top of their mortgage payments? Where you might get to see their kids graduate University in your retirement rather than standing on your porch in your pyjamas waving a shit gum at crackheads?

I got a little carried away there, maybe I paint too colourful a picture.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:13 | 4647529 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

My former co-worker moved outside Houston to an area called Telfair or near there ... said the property taxes were eating him alive...over 3% on his $675,000 house. He said job market for engineers there [esp in oil & gas]  is strong but if there's a pull back it's gonna get nasty.

 

That's alot of cahola out the door ... over $20,000 a year ...  wtf!

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 12:08 | 4647786 crtune
crtune's picture

Well said.  There is this old school mindset where one watches the "market value" of Real Estate, and contemplates taking equity out of properties.  We need to consider new models of how healthy valuation of real estate fits in with the real needs of real estate owners and consumers, and with the wider markets for providing loans, and building new homes / multi-family etc. 

For those who are owning as primary residence, that is a different situation from those who are investing in rental real estate, yet again different if you are renting.  Still different are those who are in the market to move and must transact in the property.  High rates of rise in market value, I believe, are actually UNHEALTHY (for a large number of reasons).  Modest market value rises are more sustainable, and make for better balance between invest/primaryResi/transact.

My modest hypothesis, but then I'm just some guy, albeit having "been around the block" a bit, and some "school of hard knocks" as well.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 13:06 | 4647991 TexasAggie
TexasAggie's picture

Houston has Exxon consolidating just to the North in The Woodlands and many other oil companies consolidating into houston.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 13:06 | 4647992 TexasAggie
TexasAggie's picture

Houston has Exxon consolidating just to the North in The Woodlands and many other oil companies consolidating into houston.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:50 | 4647149 PT
PT's picture

With Blackstone and friends in the game, it'll only be a matter of time before every week you'll need to increase your "mortgage" so that you can afford to pay the rent.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:51 | 4647720 q99x2
q99x2's picture

They have copper plumbing and wiring in those homes?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 08:54 | 4646935 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Yeah, but WFC said everything was great and good, so buy, buy, buy!

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 08:58 | 4646949 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

It's a sell, sell, sell market

Because

there ain't no buy, buy, buying going on.

Why?  Because the Fed gave all that money to people who were ... and still are ... insolvent ... aka the 1%'ers.

Screw liquidity.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:04 | 4646972 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Please, these people are the Fed!  They are the product of the same schools, travel in the same circles and belong to the same country clubs.

Look at the fed's balance sheet!  There is no "taper". 

They will keep enriching themselves as long as they can, the East, and Russia in particular, has finally had enough...

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 08:55 | 4646936 chunga
chunga's picture

Fuck you Wells Fargo.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:30 | 4647625 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Precisely, they are crooks, they make Pirates look bad.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 12:26 | 4647842 chunga
chunga's picture

Not very articulate by me...I know.

But I'm so sick and tired of fraud and scandals I can't even hardly stand it. I already cut the cord on cable and I'm tempted to do the same with internet. Since there isn't anything one can do about it why bother even knowing about this shit?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 08:56 | 4646940 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Buy, buy, buy.

Cramer.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 08:57 | 4646946 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Cramer. Die, die, die. 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 08:56 | 4646943 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Well it's like Fargo alright.  Who's turn is it to clean the woodchipper?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 08:57 | 4646947 pods
pods's picture

Well I am bringing down their NIM.  I am sitting around 2.35% now.  

pods

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 08:58 | 4646950 SilverIsMoney
SilverIsMoney's picture

Its a cash market driven by speculators and flippers. All is Well! We dont need no stinking mortgages for a housing recovery. I work as an examiner for Fidelity and I can assure you the foreclosures and flips are still pouring in so were all making money in this wonderful recovery weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!

:(

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 08:59 | 4646952 F.A. Hayek
F.A. Hayek's picture

You all must be idiots - don't you know you can live in your house for free?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 08:59 | 4646954 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

They make 3.2% while their depositors make less than 1%?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 10:00 | 4647193 Cugel
Cugel's picture

Ah, but lowering the interest rate doesn't lower the risk of buyers defaulting. If you lent to homebuyers at 3.2% would you expect to break even?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:01 | 4646962 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

The Chinese don't need your shit mortgages. So, fuck off bankster.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:01 | 4646965 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Obama recovery!

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:06 | 4646976 shanearthur
shanearthur's picture

Dean Wermer: "Have you boys seen your grade point averages yet? Well, have you?"

Wells Fargo: "I have sir. I know it's a little below par—"

Dean Wermer: "It's more than a little below par. It stinks!"

Wells Fargo: "Well sir, we're hoping that our midterm grades will really help out our average. Haaa!"

 

 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:06 | 4646978 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

How does the loan origination number of WF compare to total number of loans originated during the same period.  Or, for another comparison, how many of the total number of loans originated by WF for the same period were underwritten by a GSE such as FNM of FMCC?  Maybe folks just don't like doing business with FC or they are one of the few loan originators with strict qualification requirements.

 

For a real tell, let's see a chart showing their loan originations over a time period as compared to loan originations total (YoY).

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 10:11 | 4647262 BearClaw
BearClaw's picture

Agree.

A chart showing the number of property sales with loans as a percentage of all sales would also be helpful.

 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 10:32 | 4647355 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

I read somewhere in the past week that all loan originations were down 47% YOY.

Are you trying to I-spy a trend?

I wouldn't bet on Blackstone reconsidering the number of foreclosures they are buying to turn this around.

Hey ... look over there ... it's an alvalanche 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:07 | 4646981 Unknown Poster
Unknown Poster's picture

It looks like they are getting out of the mortgage business.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:07 | 4646982 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

cleary Wells Fargo is exiting the housing loan business, moving deposits over into the stock markets where the potential gains are much higher

 

(/sarc by the way)

 

 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:11 | 4646986 DarthVaderMentor
DarthVaderMentor's picture

The "end all cure all snake oil tonic" of QE and ZIRP that the esteemed Bernank chose for this country will for some time elevate the equities market and help the banksters, but it is a poisonous strychnine to the job and real estate markets. Ole' Yeller is just going to lock the steering and keep the petal to the metal in full apostolic belief of the Bernank faith as we all approach the inpenetrable and inmovable wall of mathematical and economic reality. 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:08 | 4646988 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Dealing with a the banks trying to get a mortgage is such a pain in the ass that people are just giving up. The process takes so damn long that the documents expire and people have to keep providing them with moar until they finally throw in the towel. Hell just trying to renew a business line of credit is so tedious and time consuming that it's hardly worth the effort.  

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:57 | 4647185 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

A BUSINESS line of credit?  Do they still offer those?  I thought they went out with payment-optional ARMs!  Of course, payment-optional ARMs are making a come-back, but business lines of credit.... not so much.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:12 | 4646989 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

If you like your underwater mortgage, you can keep your underwater mortgage. Period (Moochelle's).

Bad joo-joo.

On happier note, just got a 0% for 15 months CC with a $5K line from another clueless bankster.

When they asked what I did for a living, I said, "Fuck banks out of their money."

They didn't care. Morons.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 10:45 | 4647412 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

That's funny. Thanks!

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 13:13 | 4648020 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

I'm surprised they didn't increase your credit line when you told them that...

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:10 | 4646993 Charles Nelson ...
Charles Nelson Reilly's picture

housing market is terrible... unless you are selling in DC, Northern VA, San Fran, LA, NYC & the other slime infested elite areas of the country.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 10:55 | 4647377 new game
new game's picture

common thread is where tax and spend policy is predominant. add MN to the list.

seems counter intuitive. my conclusion is government brings value to a community. higher property value, community centers, nice spiffy roads and trails, city centers, parks, gatheriing points, programms for kids and adults, senior centers, transit system, 

greats schools(s/), and wonderland almost crime free susburban living, jobs from elevated taxes, attracts high level jobs, educated people bring

their mores, higher education supports the role of high level jobs and location of corporate centers tolerating the higher taxes.

works until well, waiting to see...

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:20 | 4647031 kurt
kurt's picture

Hey! It's no wonder, dorks, Wells Fargo still uses horses and wagons, duh!!!!

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:26 | 4647606 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Trendsetter !   10 years ahead of their time.

 

(Hay on the bank lobby floor would be cool.)

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:34 | 4647071 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

The local daily newspaper with about 20k readers had a front page article on the "housing sucks because inventory is low" argument.  Now this paper never has much on economic news so I have to believe that .gov sent out a please run a story on this message or we'll send in the IRS.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:46 | 4647138 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Forgot to mention that leading up to the election in 2008 this newspaper had daily front page articles on the price of gasoline.  Don't hear a thing except every few months there'll be an article about gas dropping 2 cents a gallon.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:34 | 4647072 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

'Change You Can Believe In'

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:37 | 4647087 Max Cynical
Max Cynical's picture

I'd like to see this chart overlayed with housing prices. The flow of money into mortgages is directly correlated to the sharp rise of housing costs over the last year, no?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:48 | 4647145 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I think it is worse than the data shows.  People are buying more expensive homes with mortgages while the low income flippable properties are purchased with cash so they aren't reflected in the mortgage data.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:52 | 4647162 boeing747
boeing747's picture

That means mid-class buyers already maxed out credit (leverage) to buy houses and stocks. According to Howard Clark of cnn radio, some lenders started to lower lending standards so more people can afford 'american dream'. 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 09:58 | 4647188 Incubus
Incubus's picture

kick the can, or face the guillotine.

 

The moment people realize that the american dream is really just a dream, things get nasty.

 

EXTEND AND PRETEND, OR LOSE YOUR HEAD.  Aaaaand, we see just how much power the proles have until we ultimately realize the proles are an utterly useless lot whose aggresssion will be diverted to the common-folk of other countries.

 

The elites always win.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 10:04 | 4647204 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Tell that to Louis XVI.

He was only 38 when his head fell into the basket. Poor Louis.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 10:51 | 4647432 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

It WAS different then.  Only about 15 people lived in France at the time.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 10:04 | 4647216 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

off topic, sort of, but we are getting what certain people wanted and worked hard to give us.

http://www.teapartynation.com/forum/topics/how-did-obama-win-2012

It does ask a good question -  why anyone would oppose voter ID laws?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 10:21 | 4647304 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

In the new progressive America, the ends justify the means. What immigration laws? Who's Jon Corzine? Fast and Furious, what's that? Tax oppression of conservatives, so what?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:20 | 4647573 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

The "Cross Check Program" was designed by Kris Kobach, Secretary of State in Kansas.

This is HIS quote of what he says about his own program....

"Experience in the crosscheck program indicates that a significant number of apparent double votes are false positives and not double votes. Many are the result of errors voters sign the wrong line in the poll book, election clerks scan the wrong line with a barcode scanner, or there is confusion over the father/son voters (Sr. and Jr.)."

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:39 | 4647677 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Not so sure about your assertion.

A lot of snowbirds down here vote up north, and here.

I know that for a fact because I have asked.Some don't know they can't, but most know and still

do it anyway.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:40 | 4647685 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

U.S.A. = Crossed the Rubicon.

These political debates are quaint, but pointless.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 10:05 | 4647224 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

we had another bounce in the Philly Housing index, but it has since rolled over with a vengeance.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/philly-housing-index-daily-bounces-boll...

 

housing has never come close to recovering - see Philly Housing index monthly

 

The FED strikes again.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 12:20 | 4647818 813kml
813kml's picture

Buyers may have been warned away by reruns of It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 10:22 | 4647309 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

God Damn it!!   Will you STOP making Sense!!!?!!!?

It's getting annoying.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 10:24 | 4647316 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

A robust housing market is not necessarilt inconsistent with low mortgage origination rates. It's called rental housing, as in apartments.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 10:33 | 4647359 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

The weather, the weather, the weather ... got it?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:07 | 4647503 Obama_4_Dictator
Obama_4_Dictator's picture

bares repeating....Most Americkans can not even come up with 2,000 dollars.  I have saved over 42k (mostly PM's) and refuse to spend any of it, especially on housing (I'm in Austin, TX).  You would have to be stupid to be spending freely with the way employers threathen all of us with termination. I have my own buisness because of this.  I have some friends in WI, that live in Oshkosh - Oshkosh Truck just layed off 700....I have another friend in New London who's entire cheese making factory just shut down, one of the towns only emplyers. It's not good folks.  Mass layoffs are coming soon and in fact are already happening.  

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 12:18 | 4647814 813kml
813kml's picture

I left Austin a little over a year ago, the town is great (although being infested by Californians) but I hear the RE market is even crazier than when I left.  It should do better than most because of tech industry, but things are getting ugly all over.  Self-employment is a different kind of stress, but at least you can call your boss an asshole without fear of getting canned.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 12:22 | 4647826 Obama_4_Dictator
Obama_4_Dictator's picture

Acutally I hate Austin, but I love Texas...I live in Williamson County, and it's great.  I think you were smart to get out, personally.  Rent is going through the roof, but you are right about the faggots from cali coming here, I came from cali as well, but I spent 25 years in WI, so I don't consider myself a lame californian. I feel like we will be priced out of rent very soon.  We moved here a year ago and rent is up at least 200 dollars already, traffic is a nightmare, way worse than San Diego.  Looks like we will be moving to a smaller town like Taylor to escape the bullshit. 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 12:55 | 4647947 813kml
813kml's picture

Uh oh, Will-Lock-You-Up County.  Make sure never to put keys in the ignition if your BAC is above zero.

My experience in Austin was the opposite, but then I like a good party.  Kind of why I left.  Traffic will only get more horrendous in and around Austin, it's only tolerable if you don't have to drive or can get around on bike.  Smalltown TX could be good, assuming that you aren't: black, Mexican, Asian, LGBT, Democrat, a Sooners fan, etc.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 13:00 | 4647960 Obama_4_Dictator
Obama_4_Dictator's picture

My party days are long over - I'm 36 now and I've done every drug in the book in my 20's so I'm good.  I work from home and wy Wife works north of us, I did my research before I moved here.  Yea, I'm white and actually don't like any of those groups you mentioned. I'll be fine. LOL

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 13:15 | 4648022 813kml
813kml's picture

Ha, sounds like you'll be in hog heaven.  It wasn't drugs for me, but there were always hundreds of events on Austin weekends that included free booze.  Add that to hordes of non-fat women in sundresses and it makes it hard to concentrate.

Damn, you made me wanna move back.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 13:18 | 4648037 Obama_4_Dictator
Obama_4_Dictator's picture

Ah, you'll be better off where you are. I'm sure.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:09 | 4647513 edifice
edifice's picture

Who the hell "buys" (rents from the bank; i.e., a mortgage) a house anymore?  Such a 20th century concept. Eddie Bernays' idea of the "American Dream". That and 4 or 5 maxed-out credit cards, along with the financed Lexus (Toyota with an L on it) sitting in the driveway. Smart Sheep are waking up, paying off their debts and not living as debt serfs.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:13 | 4647533 Obama_4_Dictator
Obama_4_Dictator's picture

So true, could not have said it better.  I have no debts and both my cars are paid off and MINE (an 18 year old Saleen Mustang that gets more looks than any new car and my wife's 2007 fusion) and we rent a home. We spend some of our expendable income on long term preps.  We have money in the bank and no CC debt.  It's not an exciting life, but it's not stressful either.  

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:54 | 4647734 edifice
edifice's picture

Excellent!  You and I are in similar positions.  The thing is, we have more FREEDOM than the debt serf.  Not total freedom, but more of it.  Time is freedom.  If you spend all of your time working, to pay off debt, you are a slave.  There's something to be said for simple living.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 12:25 | 4647839 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

In a debt based monetary system everyone is a debt serf

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 13:39 | 4648105 edifice
edifice's picture

Yes, but simple living allows you to limit the degree of your serfdom. Transacting in USD in the United States is unavoidable.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 13:53 | 4648174 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

Your simple living isn't stopping your government from run up bills in your name...

Means testing shows us you can afford to give more to the cause...  Or should we start with your 401k and IRA first...

 

Thanks commrade edifice..

Signed dear leader...

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 16:32 | 4648913 edifice
edifice's picture

Everyone here knows 40x plans are just another tax.  I think mine has $4-$5k in it -- they could take it and I wouldn't even notice.  It doesn't invalidate my earlier point.  You only have to factor in so much theft from .gov -- everything else is gravy.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:16 | 4647550 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

So here's why it's funny.

Treasury, Fed, and banksters have held out millions of foreclosures, waiting for the market to recover.  Now that the "market has recovered" due to Fed printing and Chinese buyers, there is no domestic demand at all.  Bernanke's fake demand has pushed prices too high.

It didn't work, Ben.  Ben?  Hey, where's Ben?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:21 | 4647578 Obama_4_Dictator
Obama_4_Dictator's picture

Has anyone thought of maxing credit cards out on G&S? And then stop payment?  What are teh ramifications of that?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:40 | 4647680 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

i wonder about that too. if the CC was a revolving charge, the bankruptcy judge could demand you return the product (so if you charge a lawnmower on a revolving CC and you can't make payments and you sell the lawnmower you can be arrested, and if you buy the lawnmower from someone else you have accepted stolen property. nothing you bought in a revolving account is paid off as long as you keep a balance due in the account, so the lawnmower might be twenty years old!)

not sure how much revolving charge rules apply. if you used your credit card for an expensive vacation, that's gone. logically you could make a cash advancefly to europe, pretend to have a good time. buy a lot of gold from vending machines. return home and declare bankruptcy.

there's probably better ways. if you're the fed print worthless paper money and buy gold, then destroy the currency when you are done

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:23 | 4647584 kenezen
kenezen's picture

There is movement of wealth south to Florida and others since the crash to try to get Exclusive beach properties. Hence in some towns like Jacksonville and others, thing are fine. However, Blue collar on down has not benefited in wage elevation. So the economy flattens and we can't wish or lie our way out of it. 

To make matters far, far, worse, we may lose a another possibly greater portion of our Reserve currency status! That would be a massive failing of our Government!  Bush started this mess! But, unless we get someone competent to correct it we will see our purchasing power of anything and everything reduced by 50% . 

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:35 | 4647659 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Regular folk trade on yesterday's news.

Wall Street trades on tomorrow's news.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:37 | 4647669 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Whyt is everyone so worried?

"House prices never drop."

My realtor told me so.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 13:07 | 4647994 novictim
novictim's picture

I was told just the other day by my own realator "It's never been a better time to buy!".

Isn't that wonderful!  I am so excited!!  

We worked out a plan where I'll cash in my 401k, my IRA, and my childrens' college funds and buy two homes!  

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:53 | 4647728 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I haven't taken any college loans to buy a house yet but they keep offering them to me.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 11:55 | 4647738 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

don't overpay, pretty soon they'll be giving homes away. in the migration from a manufacturing to a service economy the tipping point is crossed when it costs more to service the product than the product is worth. you lease a car for $150 a month but it costs $200 to operate. once that point is reached the service provider can subsidize the product and still make a profit, like free cellphones if you use our service. the home servicing business has already consolidated mortgage taxes and insurance are bundled. HOA fees could be also be added, including landscaping, pools, and even energy, (if i built a small development i would definitely try to build a single solar project to serve all the homes, because location is critical - and if a home isn't solar accessible, the value is much lower)

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 12:42 | 4647893 yellowsub
yellowsub's picture

Just because these banks are not lending as much it doesn't mean others can't step in.

A friend is selling their home to a buyer who is getting a FHA loan 3.5% down and additional money for the repairs.  That will close faster than my 20% down conventional mortgage through one of these large banks!  I never heard of whatever lender or broker they're using but that closing speed was surprising.

The FEDs still doling out the easy credit.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 12:49 | 4647922 novictim
novictim's picture

Builders are not building new homes...they smell a crash.

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 13:40 | 4648109 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

The correct valuation for the real estate market is one in which working people can qualify for a "good" loan with a 10-20% down payment.  We are nowhere near that in much of the country.   Long time holders have seen enough appreciation to sell and move into other bloated homes but newcomers, forget it.   $700K for a home?  How many truly can afford that?

Fri, 04/11/2014 - 13:41 | 4648110 Ariadne
Fri, 04/11/2014 - 14:28 | 4648332 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

green shoots are back.

Sun, 04/13/2014 - 13:48 | 4654334 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

as usual, it all comes down to the price oil. What business can survivie $150 oil, and which ones can't. Look at your local economy. Who can operate at $150? Take evasive action.

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