Retail Sales Surge By Most In 18 Months Led By Spike In Auto Sales

Tyler Durden's picture


Not entirely surprising given the data from the automakers in recent weeks, but the 3.4% jump in auto dealer sales provided enough juice to push overall retail sales in the US up 1.1% MoM (beating expectations of 0.8% and with last month's data revised higher). This is the biggest month-over-month jump in retail sales since Sept 2012. The question, of course, is whether this auto spike is sustainable to support the overall sales environment or will the ever lowering credit standards of the subprime auto loan market lead to the inevitable collapse in a few months?



So now we must hope for more bad weather so that we can have more pent-up demand for over-allocation to dealer lots?

One place there was no pent up demand overflow was in electronics sales, which in addition to gas stations (expected following the drop in gas prices), and miscellaneous store retailers, posted the largest M/M drop in March, declining by 1.6%.


Finally, putting the long-term retail sales trajectory in perspective, here is the M/M and Y/Y change in the retail sales control group:

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Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:42 | 4656341 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

More imported cars are not going to grow the US economy!

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:54 | 4656389 knukles
knukles's picture

Economy's fixed!
OK you Progressive goobermint workers hobo up additional voluntary money tomorrow on your taxes!
Everybody's in pig heaven
Shits and grins, blowjobs all around

Hobo up, motherfuckers

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 09:04 | 4656422 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

rack um up Cliff........blow and ho's for everyone.

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 09:20 | 4656426 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Good luck, buyers of what sell-siders are peddling.

Good luck, subprime NINJAS.

Debt slaves to parasites of finance/"banking" unite.


As more consumers trade-in their old vehicles for a newer model, a growing number of consumers are owing more on their trade-in than their vehicle’s actual worth.

Automotive News reports a rise in negative equity among trade-ins beginning in Q3 2011 according to information from the Power Information Network. At that time, 22 percent of trade-ins were upside down; however, by Q1 2014, ***the percentage reached 27.3 percent*** after hitting 25.9 percent and 23.6 percent in the first quarters of 2013 and 2012, respectively.

The cause? ***Longer loan terms of 73 TO 84 MONTHS (and now, beyond), increased subprime borrowing, and declining values in the used-car market as negative equity takes hold.***

Regarding the aforementioned loan terms, ***Experian Automotive said the loans were the fastest growing category in Q4 2013 compared to the previous year, taking 20.1 percent of the new-car market and 23 percent of used-car retail volume*** in comparison to 19 percent and 12.5 percent respectively in Q4 2012.

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 09:49 | 4656558 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

Auto loans spiking; mortgage originations in the toilet.

Obviously, everyone is buying these cars to live in; since they can't afford homes anymore.

Hobo up, indeed.

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 10:08 | 4656613 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

I look forward to reading John Williams analysis of this 'data'. I suspect it is bull manure as far as indicating strength in the real economy. (Watched the Nevada rancher situation over the weekend, so bull is on the mind.)

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 10:27 | 4656677 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

SokPOTUS:  You aren't far wrong.  I'm watching the young 30ish people in the office give up on buying homes and instead purchase nice cars and eat out every night.  They are more into lifestyle than mowing lawns.


Mon, 04/14/2014 - 12:12 | 4657182 bagehot99
bagehot99's picture

Tax refunds always go into car purchases. It's the closest thing to seasonal trade in the auto industry.

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 13:56 | 4657534 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Nothing wrong with living in The Van down by the river. Seems like a good way to reduce your econmic footprint.

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 09:47 | 4656551 drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

Somehow i have difficulty buying this. 

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 10:00 | 4656590 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Somehow i have difficulty buying this."

Is it because you need a loan?  Please see the loan officer at a CitiBank branch nearest you.  You will find friendly, knowledgeable staff waiting to serve you, with terms you can easily afford.  Stop "buy" and get that loan you deserve.

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 10:07 | 4656608 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Yeah, I gotta believe much of the auto sales were fleet sales to the Gubmint .

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 10:11 | 4656621 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

The BLM had over 80 white SUVs counted as they retreated from Nevada this last weekend.

Your tax money in action.

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 11:30 | 4656972 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

The message from the Bundy Ranch: "No more Wacos."

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:44 | 4656344 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

the 10% increase in beef/dairy and gasoline prices probably helped to contribute.  see, if people wont spend more, you simply make them spend more to survive.

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 09:17 | 4656458 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

Just pile more household debt onto these already underwater interest for 5 yrs. on everything...won't end well, as usual!

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:44 | 4656345 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

No, the most important question is: How reliable is the information?

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 09:46 | 4656548 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

No, the most important question is: How reliable is the information?

Agreed!!.  The point is to make markets GREEN!!!!  must stop the bleeding and hold the contagion back!!!! 

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 10:15 | 4656640 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

And need to take attention off so many other stories - - - - Nevada/Harry Reid, CIA in Russia, etc, etc, etc

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 09:51 | 4656566 drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

More statistical lies, IMHO. 

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:45 | 4656348 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Thank goodness for cars.....has any industry ever had numbers easier to manipulate than cars ????

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:48 | 4656363 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

is that a rhetorical question?  banking/finance.  duh.  

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 10:17 | 4656642 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

I wouldn't doubt GM, FORD and CHRYSLER just undloaded a fckload of cars to the rental industry at cut throat prices! this bodes real well for the moron's, who paid almost sticker, resale value.

Buy shit, get shit.

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:50 | 4656349 Baby Eating Dingo22
Baby Eating Dingo22's picture

What was the winning bid to obtain this data at 7:45?

Considering we're coming off such weakness last week, really surprised they haven't milked this beat for a 1.5% spike in futures. It will come during the day, as long as Ukriane stays still




Retail sales sizzle in March Sales jump 1.1%, biggest gain since September 2012
Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:46 | 4656353 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Tax season buying.  Auto sales always see a bump once the tax "refund" a/k/a EIT credit checks start rolling out....

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:48 | 4656358 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

I've driven by dealerships that will do you taxes for free......!

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:59 | 4656404 knukles
knukles's picture

BMWs got ads that say they'll do free service for four years.
Does that include blowjobs and colostomy bag changes?
My taxes are already done's, why I ask..

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 09:09 | 4656433 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

I buy a new car every 12 years. I'm in SW florida. Never saw such a massive inventory on a dealer lot as I did this weekend at a Hyundai dealer. The salesman said they had a shitload more stored elsewhere. Right out of the gate I got 2200 dealer incentives, a 2500 cash rebate and 2.99% for 5 years. That was on a 22.5K sticker.

Its the end of snowbird season and good luck dumping that load. Never saw so many cars on a lot.

They got pissed because I didn't buy their $1200 warranty extender which I figure is mostly profit for them.

There was very little traffic on the lot on Saturday when I was there.


Mon, 04/14/2014 - 09:19 | 4656461 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

same here in the midwest with the "final pump" to victory.......hehehehee.........stuff that channel baby

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:46 | 4656354 SDRII
SDRII's picture

Building materials+1.8% MM ...must paint GDP/housing/weather tape/meme - GDP upgrades 3.2.1...

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:46 | 4656355 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

when even the gubbermint is smart enough to unload ally you just know something wicked this way comes

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:47 | 4656356 youngman
youngman's picture

now you know why Ally went public at this time.....peak subprime loans

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:48 | 4656360 SpanishGoop
SpanishGoop's picture

A 3.4% increase in car loans.


Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:48 | 4656361 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Well...sales of all electric vehicles are compounding at twenty percent a year, per year. Since fuel for these vehicles is for all intents and purpose free it's hard not to see travel and tourism picking up.

Fuel cells are another interesting alternative as they offer an all electric drive system too.

So do super capacitors which run on good old fashioned ICE's.

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 12:42 | 4657292 silentboom
silentboom's picture

My flying unicorn runs on fairy dust.  It's very cool.

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:48 | 4656362 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Thank goodness uncle sam's financiers  can print that refund money, or this could have been an ugly month.

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:57 | 4656398 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Doc, shoot me an email at I am on the run today but will get you aquared away tomorrow if that's cool. Congrats to you my man. That was fun. 


Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:50 | 4656364 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Tax refunds and bad loans.

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:49 | 4656366 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Election year. Dems in trouble. Expect more of these 'beats' in government reports.

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 09:06 | 4656374 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Expect the government to act as customer of last resort.

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 09:18 | 4656459 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

At least when the 3/4 ton tucks with service bodies go surplus they will be actually useful. Bearcats and MRAPs look cool but are as useless as a F-18 trying to carry passengers from DFW to LAX.

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:52 | 4656377 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Armstrong more and more right every day.. 2015.75 all goes down from there.

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:53 | 4656378 A_Nejad
A_Nejad's picture

Sub-prime loans again, huh?  You, America, deserve every bit of what is coming at you.  There's no more sympathy for the fool, because everyone has it's own path, and being a fat stupid dumb ass fool "might be" his path here after all.  

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 09:30 | 4656482 TruthTalker
TruthTalker's picture

Most Americans have no clue what is coming towards them because of a complacent/corrupted media and a corrupt banking system - I've spoken to several, intelligent, hardworking adults who have no clue what the petrodollar is and why it's demise will negatively impact them.  I never would have known about any of this if it wasn't for wanting to know why Americans were not in the streets over Obamacare - I googled - why aren't Americans getting angry - Fluoride came up in the search - one search led to another and low and behold I discover what QE is, why I need to store food, get a gun, store ammo, buy gold and silver - being a single mom in her 40's I was shocked - trying to educate parents in their 80's - a lot of fun :(    Happy to report due to relentlessness I have but they still doubt everything I tell them!  Dad 83 applied for a gun permit first time in his life!  So please do not blame the American people - many who go to work and trust a financial planner to manage their money and tune into the same news broadcast they have for most of their lives - they have no clue because this administration has demanded they have no clue.  Besides hanging the bankers we should hang the news people as well! 


And I now own a Big Berkey water filter that has a fluoride filter too! 

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 09:37 | 4656508 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Dad 83 applied for a gun permit first time in his life!"

Might as well through that in the toilet if two other things (besides ammunition) are not present:



Know what to do - and be prepared to do it - without hesitation.

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 14:00 | 4657555 Sandy15
Sandy15's picture

I couldn't agree with you more.  I have been shouting the same info and people think I'm crazy.  I just try to be prepared with gun, ammo, food, water, water filter, etc., etc., newest purchase.....RV to bug out in style with trailor to pull food, water, essentials.

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:53 | 4656382 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

I'm getting bombarded by 40% off sales on appearel,  It isn't their winter inventories either.  It's their spring stuff that isn't selling.  Price discovery at work?

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 15:36 | 4657888 madcows
madcows's picture

uh, no.  it's 40% off on a 1000% mark up.  they don't sell for a loss.  they just make you think you're getting a deal.

Mon, 04/14/2014 - 09:01 | 4656407 yogibear
yogibear's picture

You see plenty of high-end new autos such as Mercedes, BMWs, Maserati's and Ferraris around now.

New stock market wealth. Stealing wealth from savers.

Reminds one of the roaring 20s without the jobs or manufacturing.

Printed wealth borrowed from the future. 

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