This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Baffle With Fake BS: Chinese Q1 GDP Beats And Misses At The Same Time
In keeping with the tradition of Chinese data being fully Schrodingerized, not to mention completely goalseeked and fake, moments ago China reported that its GDP for the quarter which ended 15 days ago has not only been compiled and analyzed, but somehow once again it both beat and missed at the same time. It beat on a Year over Year basis rising 7.4%, if far below the 7.7% expected just fractionally above the 7.3% expected, while at the same time it missed on a sequential basis with Q1 GDP growing 1.4% Q/Q, just below the 1.5% expected, suggesting the annualized Q/Q has slowed to a meager 5.7% - a number far below China's 7.0% minimum threshold target.
Some other Schrodingerian, and just as fake, data:
- Retail Sales beat at 12.2%, above the expected 12.1%, but sharply below the 13.6% in Q4
- Industrial Output missed at 8.8%, below the expected 9.0%, and also well below the 9.7% previously
- Fixed Asset Investment also slide from 19.6% at Q4 to just 17.6%, also missing the 18% estimate, as the capex boom from building ghost cities is slowly grinding to a halt, and finally
- Real Estate development dipped from 19.8% to only 16.8%
In short: a substantial deterioration of the economy, one which was to be expected yet one which can be spun as either bullish thanks to the GDP "beat", and negatively if the purpose is to make a case for more PBOC stimulus.
And now we look forward to seeing if the difference between the consolidated GDP and that provided by China's provinces is and summed up is more than the CNY1 trillion we have been used to as of late, since apparently nobody in China is familiar with simple addition.
»
- 8914 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
"Retail Sales beat at 12.2%, above the expected 12.1%, but sharply below the 13.6% in Q4
Industrial Output missd at 8.8%, below the expected 9.0%, and also well below the 9.7% previously
Fixed asset investment also slide from 19.6% at Q4 to just 17.6% as the capex boom is slowly grinding to a halt
and finally, Real Estate development dipped from 19.8% to only 16.8%"
"WIdgets are up to TEN THOUSAND a minute, sir."
"Moar!"
China's motto: If you can't dazzle them with brilliance then baffle them with bullshit
China, India (massive inflation), Brazil, Japan, PIIGS+France = Toast
China growth slows to 24-year low (matching absolute depth of 2008-2009 crisis):
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_CHINA_ECONOMY?SITE=AP&SECTION=...
How's $0.3 tril pulled from 4 banks in first half of April for a baffle-dazzle (eh, unconfirmed yet), @remain calm ?
http://www.aastocks.com/en/news/HK6/NOW.600817/Count3.html
GDP is the most rigged of all numbers. It's just lies.
Commie fakeout!!! You look there, we be here! Suckkkaaa!
They pull these numbers out of their fat, yellow asses every qtr.
How was the electricity consumption figure yesterday? Does Bloomberg still publish it? Haven't seen one on here for quite some time.
Obviously this is a completely fake number - and means that the Chinese government doesn't want to do more stimulus. In a rational market (an oxymoron I know) everything would sell off. This will be spun into a rip-roaring day tomorrow.
What gets me is that this will be reported with a straight face on financial media tomorrow even though everyone knows it's just a number pulled out of a hat
How do professional wrestling announcers do it? It's the same thing.
Everyone knows china lies. Everyone knows the US lies. Japan lies. Russia lies. Etc.
It doesn't matter.
Pulled out of a hat? Ha! Chinese calculus is very, very difficult. Not understood by Western economists.
Some cats in trouble.
Now we know how they feel when they see the US unemployment numbers, consumer confidence numbers and GDP!
it is possible China's economy is about to get slammed to the ground. Much of the recent growth in China after 2008 came from a massive 6.6 trillion dollar stimulus program that expanded credit and poured massive amounts of money into the system. This money encouraged expansion and construction with little regard as to real demand or need.
Now China has entered a great credit trap. China is awash in overcapacity and debt. After several years of growing debt concern is rising the whole unstable pyramid is about to come crashing down bringing China and possibly the global economy with it. This is not just about writing off a few bad loans. The shadow banking sector is so large that concerns exist about contagion and a domino series of defaults that might rack the economy as savers lose money. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/03/china-and-great-credit-trap.html
so "who gets sucked into the Chinese vortex" besides the Chinese then?
hmmm. Copper? Check. Gold? check. Silver? Check. natural gas? that was a check...until Mr. Freeze appeared. Ironically "coal, check." And steel..check. Aluminum? Check.
How about Banking period? meh, hard to tell. AIG picked a great time to sell though..so you can check that one.
General Motors? I sure hope not.
Ford? Appears not.
Tesla will be interesting to see. KNDI has gotten slammed the last few weeks...very interesting company though.
Japan?
Meaning..."all of Japan"?
????!!!!
Like the guy said in Platoon "i gotta a bad feeling about this one, Putie."
LOL, even the rigged numbers are weak.
It's called the mushroom policy and practiced assiduously by racehorse trainers with their owners. "Keep them in the dark and feed them on shit."
Lol I love Zerohedge...
Am I going insane ... or is the world insane...
Maybe its just me.. and you.
Yes
:)
Burrish!
When are the people of the USA going to get it? When will they pull their heads out of their arses?
The UN/IMF forces are training right now to go house to house to kill Americans and take guns away from them. Everything else is a distraction from this ongoing agenda to takeover the country from within.
Forget about all the carp happening everywhere else in the world, pay attention to what the heck is going on in our own backyard.
The criminality and out of control corruption is to blame for the communist takeover from within.
Here is some moar Baffling Fake BS:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNy8pi2efD4
http://thecommonsenseshow.com/2014/04/15/the-chinese-are-here-to-confisc...
another indication of how unsophisticated these communists really are
just a total lack of understanding of what these numbers really mean
and pumping them out in 15 days after the Q - that's not impressive, that's just another indication of their simple mentality
when this onion gets peeled, it's going to be macabre
The Chinese do not know much about their economy, however these are compromise numbers somewhere between what was wanted and what appears to have happened. This is the new national accounting system that has been politicalized and internationalized. Only the World Bank and the IMF, and AID can understand the system somewhat. The unexpected truth will pop up only when it can not be avoided which is important to know (it means the data is critical). This is the national system of accounts favored in the ECB, Russia, Iran, Egypt, the USA and most of South America. It was reportedly invented in Africa by a graduate of Yale interested in speed accouning techniques currently working for the SEC weekends and HFT. Please make an effort to keep up on new things.
Sure Chinese data on economy is "completely goalseeked and fake", but so is your article, b/c you would have this conclusion regardless the numbers.
And since when you can't beat YoY AND miss QoQ, at the same time?