Empire Manufacturing Misses By Most In 15 Months, Drops To 2014 Lows

Tyler Durden's picture


For the 8th month of the last 9, the Empire Manufacturing missed expectations. Tumbling to its lowest since December (despite the apparent let-up in the conventional scapegoat for every data miss in the past quarter: "harsh weather"), this is the biggest miss since Jan 2013. The average workweek slowed significantly, but the overall index was modestly saved by a push higher in 'hope' as the six-months-forward index jumped back to Feb highs. Perhaps most concerning, given the supposed pent-up demand that we have been told to expect when the weather picked up, was the tumble in new orders to their lowest since November.



From the report:

The April 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity was flat for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index slipped four points to 1.3. The new orders index fell below zero to -2.8, pointing to a slight decline in orders, and the shipments index was little changed at 3.2. The unfilled orders index remained negative at -13.3, and the inventories index dropped ten points to -3.1. The prices paid index held steady at 22.5, indicating continued moderate input price increases, and the prices received index rose to 10.2, pointing to a pickup in selling price increases. Employment indexes showed a modest rise in employment levels and a slight increase in the average workweek. Indexes for the six-month outlook continued to convey a good deal of optimism about future conditions, and the capital expenditures index climbed seven points to 23.5, its highest level in several months (ZH: LOL).


Business Activity Flat


Business activity was flat for New York manufacturers, according to the April 2014 survey. The general business conditions index slipped four points to 1.3, with 26 percent of respondents reporting that conditions had improved over the month and 24 percent reporting that conditions had worsened. The new orders index dipped into negative territory, falling six points to -2.8—a sign that orders were slightly lower over the month. The shipments index was little changed at 3.2, pointing to a small increase in shipments, and the unfilled orders index remained negative at -13.3. The delivery time index fell six points to -9.2, indicating that delivery times quickened. The inventories index fell ten points to -3.1, suggesting a slight decline in inventory levels

In other words: current conditions decline again, but everyone is hopeful about the future (unclear why - they have been hopeful for the past 5 years and... nothing yet), and of course, everyone is certain capex will pick up any minute now, as others - not them - begin spending.

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Tue, 04/15/2014 - 08:43 | 4660134 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Negative news is good for equities because the Federal Reserve will print more confetti but, not good for Gold because it has no value says the Warren Buffett school of insider investing!!  So up and off we go to new highs in an equity market with manufactured earnings and driven higher by derivative contracts no active investor buying. LOL!!

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 08:59 | 4660228 playnstocks
playnstocks's picture

It's a Tuesday... Green markets for everyone!

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 09:02 | 4660241 Tabarnaque
Tabarnaque's picture

The Empire still manifactures plenty of wars.

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 08:45 | 4660149 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Damn weather! If only we didn't have that pesky problem the eCONomy would be roaring.

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 08:43 | 4660151 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Who needs to actually manufacture anymore?

Can I interest you in a financial "product" of mass destruction?



Tue, 04/15/2014 - 08:43 | 4660152 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

yup, this paradigm is getting real old and quite boring...roll in the tanks!

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 08:44 | 4660153 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

this is obviously bullish for the FraudMarkets, and surely explains why the only2 forms of real money were stomped on at the same times,with the same patterns, this morning like every morning goin back for 3 years....

got it..

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 08:47 | 4660159 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

All those lost manufacturing jobs must be why consumer confidence keeps surging.  That, and the continuing decline in wages plus the high inflation.  Nothing makes a consumer more confident than having no job, finding a new job at a far lower pay, and then going out to buy shit and seeing the prices go up and up and up.


Am waiting for the IRS mandate that everyone buy shit on credit so the banks wont need a public bailout.  They have the power to force that now, thanks to ACA and judge roberts.

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 08:50 | 4660181 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

They get the confidence when they get the 1.9% credit card, pre-approved for $10k. Then they find out the interst rate jumps to 29% after 6 months

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 08:47 | 4660163 what's that smell
what's that smell's picture

blame snow, global warming, climate change, racists, putin, fat fingers, minimum wage, taxing the rich....

the usual suspects.

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 08:48 | 4660171 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

You forgot the big 2:  the Koch Bros and the Bundy Ranch.

Fuckin' Bundy Ranch will be the downfall of the nation!

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 14:03 | 4661998 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Start of the Revolution?

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 08:50 | 4660180 Herdee
Herdee's picture

Ramp-up,but beware,the summer doldrums are getting closer.

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 08:51 | 4660182 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

NY state's ten years tax free offer not really sparking a big mfg resurgence, shocking 

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 09:35 | 4660399 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Maybe if they extended it to include no state or local income taxes or real estate taxes Cuomo might get some suckers to move companies there. And while he's at it, Cuomo should promise milder winters in the upstate areas. And pie in the sky. Etc.

To get a fish to bite the hook, you have to offer attactive bait. Once they bite it's too late.

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 09:10 | 4660276 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Arrest Janet Yellen for Treason.

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 10:11 | 4660641 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

They are positive because there is a new national advertising campaign for businesses to move to NY.


(sorry, thats all I have)

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