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Equity Rallies Are Corrective, Downside Risks Remain, BofAML Says
As the second algo-crazy spike in stocks in 2 days draws to a close, it is perhaps worth considering BofAML's Macneil Curry's perspective on the S&P 500 - despite the potential for further near-term strength, equity gains are corrective and downside risk remain... or put a different way "sell the f##king rips." Just as growthless-ly, Curry advises 5s30s flatteners in Treasuries as the slowing trend is set to continue.
US5s30s resumes its flattening trend.
US5s30s is resuming its flattening trend. The test and reversal from old channel support, now resistance at 196bps and coincident momentum unwind from oversold extremes says the flattening trend is resuming and that it has room to run.
REMEMBER, WE ARE IN A CYCLICAL (multi-year) flattening trend. Steepening is temporary and corrective. Our initial downside targets are seen to retracement support at 146bps, but eventually we look for a move to long term channel support at 57bps and eventually below.
Initiate UST 5s30s Flatteners at mkt (185.3bps) risk 197bps, target 143bps
ESM4 gains remain corrective.
Turning to equities, despite the potential for further near term strength, against a break above 1867.50/1872.53 (ESM4 and CASH) downside risks remain for the confluence of CASH SUPPORT between 1794/1763 (10m trendline and 200d avg).
Source: BofAML
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So Bankruptcy of American Muppet Looting does analizing and telling the truth now?
Fuck what they say, the big 10 banks need to die and go away. TARP taking, lying bastards who rape and pillage this country.
this means the market is going higher
One of the daily e-mail newsletters I get has said buy the dips...
Buy, sell, market going up, market going down, bad news is good news, good news is bad news, bad news is bad news, good news is good news.
Yeah, right.
David
BTFDs and STFRs has been a winning strategy. I don't see any reason to stop now.
Goodness,We have hardly started, we will rise and fall, more of the latter, for sometime. Keep your invictives civil, this is normal.
the equity market is the cart and the horse pulling it is the economy.
"that's my story and i'm sticking to it." i still read econintersect et al. and simply put we don't have anything remotely approaching "escape velocity" when it comes to your even you NON-normative "pump and dump" by the Government due to "purges of excess" emanating from Wall Street.
In short "normative" in my view is for a mid-cycle correction as the Government...especially this particular Government...simply stops goosing the financial lunatics. (they popped the debt bubble last year in my view.)
When you throw in "micro" factors like Fukushima, the Cyprus savings disaster, the Arab "Springtime for Hitler" and now Ukraine...there are no shortage of "activist events" the Federales could be using to really get their Kenysian rocks off...nay, veerily...like a Deer in the headlights.
So "slowdown it is." this is truly a Banker's paradise as i can easily see half of the USA bankrupt by December this year should energy prices double again.
The e-minis are going to the moon, THE MOON; end of story. Skeptics gonna poo poo it though even as we make new highs quarterly for the rest of their lives.
There is no turning back, its all or nothing, only dreams now.
the feds stealth hand in the pumping of the stock market serves to prop pension/retirement funds up. They dont want the market tanking, not at this point in the 'recovery'. Dow 9000ish again will break our spirits. The fed res cant actually create jobs and ensure high salaries but they can game all financial markets at will, and all evidence shows their hand furiously at work. We are becoming increasingly broke and miserable but hopeful, because property values are holding and the market is going up. Thats the stasis theyre actually after. The idea is to continue to extract wealth from the middle class, while being able to point to positive 'things', but notice how those things are the 'stuff' the fed can directly control.
What I like about numbers is that when they are not jockeyed, jerked around, and falsified they tend to tell the truth. Looking down the road the numbers do not work. Allen H Meltzer viewed by many economist as America’s foremost expert in monetary policy and the author of the three-volume “A History of the Federal Reserve” also chaired the Shadow Open Market Committee for over 25 years. He recently stated, “We’re in the biggest mess we’ve been in since the 1930s,” he went on to say “We’ve never had a more problematic future.”For more on why he feels this way see the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/07/it-will-all-end-badly.html
Yeah but there's a lot of fear around...rebound very likely, moar and moar upside...
This indicator has worked well and says we should BTFD!!
http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
Yeah but there's a lot of fear around
Bullshit. There is a complete absence of fear in this "market". Just because some idiot constructs a fundamentally flawed index and slaps a "fear" and "greed" label on it doesn't make it so. Every one of the components of the index are relative to the observed range over a very short time frame (max 2yr) during which there has never been a correction of more than about 7%. Not exactly the stuff of fear. This is why a mere 3% downmove now elicits an "etreme fear" reading in this index. The very construct of the index presupposes that trends continue forever. They don't. Reality bites hard. Real fear won't emerge until this bitch is down 25% on her way to the bottom; and that fear will be most prevalent among those who thought a 3% down tic was a great buying opportunity and are watching as their fiat savings dissapear into nothingness.