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"It's The Weather, Duh"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Earlier today, the NAHB released its latest builder confidence report. Something stood out to us, namely the following data, which shows that while confidence picked up modestly in the Northeast in April, it tumbled in the West and Midwest.

April:

And three month average:

 

What's the explanation for this ongoing deterioration in housing market sentiment in states that had, not only were not impact by the "vortex" but if anything, were "crushed" by the balmy March atmospheric conditions? Why, "it's the weather, duh."

* * *

Economist-level stupidiy aside, even Corelogic now sees through the BS of a US consumer who is tapped out not because of "harsh weather" in the winter, but because the US economy is running on fumes.

  • Severe winter weather experienced over the past few quarters does not “sufficiently explain” weakness in housing starts, write CoreLogic analysts Molly Boesel and Katie Dobbyn in a research report.
  • Single family housing starts dropped 13% m/m in Jan., held steady in Feb., must break down starts by region to account for weather differences across the continent
  • Housing starts in the midwest dropped 55% in Jan., in the south dropped 11%, northeast increased by 8%, west increased 11%
  • Using temperature data from Jan. 1984 to Feb. 2014 compared to historic housing starts:
  • According to historic patterns midwest should have dropped 6% in Jan., fallen 11% in Feb.; northeast should have seen -6%/-5%; south -2%/-1%
  • Midwest’s 55% drop in housing starts in Jan. cannot be completely attributed to the weather, nor can northeast and south’s declines
  • Analysis points to recovery of starts this spring, but likely not enough to counteract current market weakness

Ok, maybe it's not "the weather, duh." But if the generic scapegoat to explain every economic miss in the first three months of the year is now dead and buried, it can only mean that now even the permabulls have no choice but to accept the unpleasant reality of what is really going on beneath the surface - long since devoid of a snow cover - of the US economy.

 

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Tue, 04/15/2014 - 14:40 | 4662153 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

There is no recovery.

The only recovery is in the cotton candy markets, and the balance sheets of billionaires.

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 14:42 | 4662166 StacksOnStacks
StacksOnStacks's picture

It's gorgeous here in Vegas, people just have no fucking money!

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 14:48 | 4662190 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

There's the answer. With such nice weather........we don't need no stinkin' houses!!!

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 14:49 | 4662192 aVileRat
aVileRat's picture

Yup, WYNN and Sands are going to take a serious dirtnap. Which is sad, because Vegas was the 10th wonder of the world.

One problem, if everyone uses the 'weather' excuse this quarter, WTF are the trannies, esp. the railers going to use for their 2H14/15 outlooks ?

 

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 14:59 | 4662230 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

The weather.  It's so nice that everybody went to the beach instead of the mall.

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 15:23 | 4662309 Carl Popper
Carl Popper's picture

Hmmm. I have to disagree with emergency ward. Sometimes it is the weather, but other times it is more likely to be the weather.

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 14:47 | 4662188 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Whether it's cold

Or whether it's hot

We're going to have weather

Whether or not

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 14:49 | 4662194 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

are we sure Goebels didn't make it out of Germany and set up a PR firm handling all .gov communications?

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 14:41 | 4662156 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

dont worry. the next excuse is the heating bills from jan-mar and the cooling bills and the rising (but non inflation causing) food and gasoline prices, etc, etc, etc.....

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 16:56 | 4662687 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

There is ALWAYS a new excuse!

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 14:41 | 4662159 max2205
max2205's picture

Nyc is skewing the NE numbers?

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 14:45 | 4662177 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

Chili today, Hot Tamale

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 14:50 | 4662196 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Its the Globalists in Washington D.C. and the FED

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 14:54 | 4662212 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

When it's not the weather, it's the weather. 

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 14:58 | 4662226 Not Goldman Sachs
Not Goldman Sachs's picture

I still have snow....but in fact there is a house being built nearby.

I wonder what the housing numbers are in Ottawa? It never thaws there!

I have some pent-up-demand that needs sublimated.  Any ideas?

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 15:19 | 4662295 Carl Popper
Carl Popper's picture

Titty bar always works for me

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 15:12 | 4662274 starman
starman's picture

"Rising house prices ate great for the Economy!!! 

Said one of the dumbfuck CNBC commentators.

Me I'm just waiting for the 5 10 year CDs with that 5% yield to return.

Even though my bank teller told me its gonna be a while.

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 15:18 | 4662292 Carl Popper
Carl Popper's picture

Arctic vortices suck, man.

They have been known to cause all sorts of GDP havoc.

Dont get me started on El Niños either.

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 15:34 | 4662362 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

You can plant your used RV on a state park beach in Big Sur all winter. 

Tue, 04/15/2014 - 15:42 | 4662395 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

whip it out folks

 

time to join in to today's circle jerk!!!!!

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