With 103 Mentions Of "Weather", It Is Time To Rename The 'Beige Book' To The 'Weather Book'

Tyler Durden's picture

While overall the beige book was an absolute snoozer, almost as boring as Yellen's earlier appearance at the economic club of New York, and its core message were quite bullish, namely that:

  • EIGHT OF 12 FED DISTRICTS SAY GROWTH `MODEST OR MODERATE'
  • FED SAYS ECONOMIC GROWTH `INCREASED IN MOST REGIONS' OF U.S.
  • FED SAYS LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS `MIXED BUT GENERALLY POSITIVE'

... confirming that the Beige Book contributors did not get the "ignore the dots" memo, the only "exciting" thing that everyone was looking for: what the Fed thought about the weather. Because with 103 instances of the word "weather" in the report (granted less than the 119 in February), it sure thought a lot.

Some examples:

  • Consumer spending increased in most Districts, as weather conditions improved and foot traffic returned.
  • Manufacturing improved in most Districts. Several Districts reported that the impact of winter weather was less severe than earlier this year.
  • Demand for food production declined in the Boston, Richmond, and Dallas Districts; however the drop was primarily weather related.
  • New York and Dallas reported especially strong increases. New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Richmond cited the inclement weather as a factor reducing home sales and therefore mortgage borrowing.
  • Agricultural reports were mixed, as weather disruptions delayed crop plantings and shipments of commodities.
  • Retail sales in New York rebounded strongly from weather-depressed levels, while cold weather continued to hold down consumer spending in Cleveland.
  • Sales of cars and light trucks picked up in recent weeks as the weather improved and consumer traffic returned to dealerships.
  • Some contacts suggested that cold weather had decreased travel.
  • The Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts noted that lingering winter weather hampered business activity, but the impact was less severe than earlier this year.
  • The Chicago District indicated that steel production recovered from a weather-related slowdown and capacity utilization returned to its expected levels.

The embarrassment continues in the full book (link). Luckily, there was only one case of "pig virus"

Full April beige book word cloud:

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
FOC 1183's picture

So the 6 or so remaining viewers of CNBC can go ahead and switch over to The Weather Channel?

ZerOhead's picture
  "Weather"

 

 

Whether the weather be fine,
Or whether the weather be not,
Whether the weather be cold,
Or whether the weather be hot,
We must blame the weather
To hold shit together,
Whether you like it or not!

~Janet

NotApplicable's picture

In other news, the Fed announced the hiring of Jim Cantori as a Senior Economic Analyst.

pods's picture

Maybe we can have big screens with sunshine on them to make everyone happy and buy FB stock?

pods

NotApplicable's picture

Careful now, you're confusing the stock market with the economy.

Tinky's picture

"mixed but generally positive"?

How about opaque, but generally dishonest?

Dr. Engali's picture

What's this have to do with BTFD?

Bunga Bunga's picture

The Weather Girls could sing it better.

Philalethian's picture

They only tell you what you want to hear.

It's raining cats and dogs...and it's all clear.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DwJvO1xs7E

 

~

 

***RIP: MCR

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UT5MY3C86bk

Rising Sun's picture

Is that fat old cunt telling us to BTFD or not????

 

Yellen - what the fuck????  Get off you ass and tell us!!!!!!!

 

YOU STUPID CUNT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Flakmeister's picture

Until further notice, BTFD...

Unless you really think that monetary deflation is on its way...

Billy Sol Estes's picture

Dear Fed,

Wherever you go, Always blame the Weather.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wat03h2ev0

NotApplicable's picture

I was thinking more along the lines of Stevie Ray Vaughan.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nO23B5C_Mcw

zenblaster's picture

Love the homey facts in the latest Fed Almanac.

Flakmeister's picture

Wait about 10-15 years if you think weather is overplayed now....

Of course this is assuming the FED is still around....

SheepDog-One's picture

Sunny skies for the top 0.001% forever, for the rest of you, fuck off and die for all we care.

valley chick's picture

Boring is bullish!

Flakmeister's picture

Oh goodie...

California Drought/Polar Vortex Jet Stream Pattern Linked to Global Warming

 

Summarized very nicely here:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2665

Here is the original paper (paywalled)

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059748/abstract

The 2013-14 California drought was accompanied by an anomalous high-amplitude ridge system. The anomalous ridge was investigated using reanalysis data and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). It was found that the ridge emerged from continual sources of Rossby wave energy in the western North Pacific starting in late summer, and subsequently intensified into winter. The ridge generated a surge of wave energy downwind and deepened further the trough over the northeast U.S., forming a dipole. The dipole and associated circulation pattern is not linked directly with either ENSO or Pacific Decadal Oscillation; instead it is correlated with a type of ENSO precursor. The connection between the dipole and ENSO precursor has become stronger since the 1970s, and this is attributed to increased GHG loading as simulated by the CESM. Therefore, there is a traceable anthropogenic warming footprint in the enormous intensity of the anomalous ridge during winter 2013-14, the associated drought and its intensity.

 

Constitution First's picture

The draught in question was caused by enviro-nuts and the EPA nazis shutting down the irregation ditches to save some stupid minnow. 

it has nothing to do with the weather, nothing.

Again, the government bent on distroying our country, but now with a twist "it's all your fault!"

Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.

Flakmeister's picture

Helluva rebuttal there, big boy....

One question, do you buy or rent your clown suit?

BTW, it is spelled drought....

B2u's picture

I have been tracking the news for  the past 30 days.  Damn if there hasn't been WEATHER every day.  I did a search and I cannot find a day in the past when there was no weather.