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Crude Alert: Gartman Is Now Long Oil

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Having been stopped out of his "long punt" in copper futures (which are, we remind readers, levered via margin and not a simple cash percentage loss of capital), world-renowned (for something) Dennis Gartman has issued his latest missive - ultimate contrarian call - advice... "we are sellers this morning of copper and buyers of crude oil, one relative to the other, with the problems in China weighing upon the former while crude has held impressively as other commodity prices have fallen." Crude oil longs beware... prepare to be Gartman'd.

 

Via Dennis Gartman,

We were stopped out of our copper position yesterday, losing 1.2% on the position, which when compared to the 10-15% movements we’ve seen recently in NFLX or TSLA or others such as that seems rather inconsequential but is important nonetheless. Those not out should be out... now.

[deflecting the futures-contract - and thus 10-20x levered via margin - 1.2% loss in copper with a 10-15% gain in unlevered risk positions in NFLX and TSLA (a magical catch we suppose) seems a little disingenous to us - but we digress]

NEW RECOMMENDATION: Indeed, we are sellers this morning of copper and buyers of crude oil, one relative to the other, with the problems in China weighing upon the former while crude has held impressively as other commodity prices have fallen. As we write, June WTI crude is trading 103.79 and July copper is trading $3.0010. We’ll have stops in tomorrow’s TGL, but we’d not wish to risk more than 2% on this rather unusual spread position.

 

++++++

Of course, there is no discussion of beta differentials... relative tick sizes, or capital allocations to this 2-legged strategy that a real-world trader would have to undertake - but then at $29.99 you get what you pay for...

As a reminder this long oil, short copper trade is the most consensus trade that exists currently (as we noted here)...

Oil spec longs at record highs... 

 

Copper spec shorts at record highs...

 

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Wed, 04/16/2014 - 10:38 | 4664958 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Perfect. Long copper, short crude.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 10:41 | 4664982 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

I thot he was scaaaaaaaaaared.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 10:44 | 4664996 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

sold all my oil stocks this morning

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 10:56 | 4665049 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

going to buy some DTO.  also, EIA just reported stocks of oil right at all time highs.  even as we now export over 1.8 Million BPD of gasoline/diesel to europe.  the depression deepens.....

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:07 | 4665101 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

It bears repeating because you NEVER see this info reported in the MSM...but US gasoline consumption is down by over 60% since 2007 or so.

That is what a depression looks like.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:17 | 4665110 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

A bit.  Not entirely.

Miles driven have been falling since before 2007.  Youngsters particularly.  They can't afford cars.

Since before 2007.

American consumption doesn't tell the tale.  India and China consumption does.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:30 | 4665188 bania
bania's picture

Good ole Dennis "Whipsaw" Gartman!

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 12:07 | 4665374 InjectTheVenom
InjectTheVenom's picture

oh god ... hey, what's the ticker for that  quadruple-short crude etf  ?!

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:40 | 4665230 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

so true

we are just 300 million in a 7 billion market

youngsters can't afford cars, and gas, and real estate, and college, and, most of all, the current debt

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:13 | 4665124 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

This fucker Gartman is using the retail sheeps remaining to trade against them....unfortunately most of the sheeps have either been sheared already OR they finally figured out that hes a clueless fuck.

They should make an ETF called Inverse Gartman Call ETF ticker symbol FOOL.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:35 | 4665209 TaperProof
TaperProof's picture

They needed a calmer version of jim cramer for this role I guess.  One the older folks can relate to

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:46 | 4665274 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

or FART

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 13:24 | 4665741 Coast Watcher
Coast Watcher's picture

BB said: "US gasoline consumption is down by over 60% since 2007 or so."

Eh, no. U.S. gasoline consumption is down about 6 percent from its 2007 high. See:

http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=23&t=10

http://www.americanfuels.net/2014/03/2013-gasoline-consumption.html

 

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 12:47 | 4665555 NO SOLICITING
NO SOLICITING's picture

That was easy!

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 13:19 | 4665702 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

You'd only get screwed if you weren't long enough.

Gartman and followers may get screwed if the economy takes another 2007-8 style shit.  But Peak Cheap Energy is a given....and it will only get worse year over year.....well.....forever.  There is NO replacement for cheap EROEI fossil fuel.  The only thing that can be replaced is the conventional wisdom that says we are entitled to live a fantasy land, comfortable life that has been afforded us by the magic of cheap fossil fuel forever.

And as that becomes more apparent to the powers that be....the only thing they will do is try to secure the last of the oil fields and pipelines they possibly can.  That alone....plus the conflicts and the political intrigue and even wars that will occur from the scramble of the last of the oil can only drive oil prices up.

Therefore....I would hedge with water.  Go very long oil......and hedge with companies that own water rights and the production and distribution of water.

In this case....water and oil do mix.  For both of them are the essence of life.  One for modern life.....the other for life itself.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 10:39 | 4664962 Atlas_shrugging
Atlas_shrugging's picture

Sounds like y'all a couple a bookies

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 10:41 | 4664979 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

Mr. Valentine has set the price....

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:09 | 4665056 jtz5
jtz5's picture

"Sell 200 in April at 142!"

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:45 | 4665269 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Louis Winthorpe III: [approaching the New York Commodities Exchange] Think big, think positive, never show any sign of weakness. Always go for the throat. Buy low, sell high. Fear? That's the other guy's problem. Nothing you have ever experienced will prepare you for the absolute carnage you are about to witness. Super Bowl, World Series - they don't know what pressure is. In this building, it's either kill or be killed. You make no friends in the pits and you take no prisoners. One minute you're up half a million in soybeans and the next, boom, your kids don't go to college and they've repossessed your Bentley. Are you with me?

Billy Ray Valentine: Yeah, we got to kill the motherf... - we got to kill 'em!

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 10:39 | 4664966 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

SCO

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 10:41 | 4664975 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

This shmuck reminds me of my bad days on the golf course....

 

where you drive it into the junk, BUT YOU CAN GET OUT....instead of taking your meds (i.e. take the penalty stroke and give yourself a chance) I CAN GET OUT....and you dick it out, but still not a clear shot.....

 

so you walk off with a trip instead of a bogey....just cut your losses and step back Fartman

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:35 | 4665207 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

 Always go for the shot if you have a chance to escape the trouble. Chip outs and drops are for pussies. What can cost you a triple one time, will result in a career round another.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 12:40 | 4665519 Dumpster Fire
Dumpster Fire's picture

^ Future Fed chairman

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 13:07 | 4665646 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

I know....I never play it safe....."screw it...let's see where this goes" is my attitude 9/10 times.

 

Of course if im in a tourney, ill play it safer. safer being the key word.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 10:42 | 4664987 holmes
holmes's picture

Gartman, Cramer in the Financial Hall of Shame.

Other nominations?

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:43 | 4665255 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

The entire on-air staff of shills, fucktoads, Liesmanviks, and droopy poopy liberal cue-card read the fuckin script slaves at cnbc...minus Mandy Drury's babs

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 14:29 | 4666062 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

how about greasy joe T - and that pony tailed clown

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 10:48 | 4665006 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I wish he'd go long gasoline futures, or food.  I know there's no inflation, and I'm infinitely grateful to the FED masters for that, but the increase in my cost of living is killing me.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:44 | 4665261 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

the only thing worse than the cost of a living empire, is the cost of a dying one

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 10:49 | 4665009 kahunabear
kahunabear's picture

Is he long oil or "long of oil"?

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:42 | 4665247 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

He's oily long....

Oily or late-y waitey...Gartman/Fartman/Dartboard is a shill of disastrous proportions...

 

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:01 | 4665032 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

This guy is freaking awful. I  don't think a poo flinging blind monkey (think Cramer) could be this bad if they tried.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:14 | 4665126 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

The Black Hand of Soros will be back.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 10:54 | 4665041 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I don't think copper will crater and didn't think it would when Gartman went long.  But his timing is an atrocity.  He is a leveraged chaser that uses stops.  He went long copper after a short term pop and asked to get stopped out. 

The math says the price of everything is going to continue to rise.  But you can't be a dummy about it.  Too much money, plus leverage, plus sheep bankers trading, equals massive volatility.  There are actually people out there who think we are having a deflation problem.  And they are stupid enough to bet on it with big money and leverage.  They can cause things to bounce around quite a bit short term.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 10:57 | 4665054 HisNameIsRP
HisNameIsRP's picture

fartman letter

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:19 | 4665149 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Exactly. Dumbass Fartman has the timing of a  unsuspecting cuckholded husband walking in on his wife getting dicked by 6 big black cocked studs....

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:28 | 4665174 max2205
max2205's picture

Ok....turn off the porn and get back to trading

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 10:59 | 4665059 Der Wille Zur Macht
Der Wille Zur Macht's picture

Oil > Gold

I'm stacking gas tanks y'all. 

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:13 | 4665123 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Oil is not about trading.

Oil is about death. 

Unlike other stuff, refineries and suppliers set the price and NYMEX adjusts to it.

It's the only commodity that you burn up and disappears.  Think about that.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:46 | 4665279 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

democracy and capitalism share the same quality

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:55 | 4665333 dognamedabu
dognamedabu's picture

Oil is about getting me around and getting food out of the earth and into me to burn up. People like to biatch about it, but I find it very useful in my day to day life. 

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 13:03 | 4665625 NO SOLICITING
NO SOLICITING's picture

What about Corn.  Ethanol.  Burning food for fuel?

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 10:59 | 4665062 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

10MM bbl increase in EIA inventories today...let's see, the world is long, the price is xploding on rumors and the supply is in glut territory...my bizzaro analysis tells me itshold be up :0  what a fukking world!

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:16 | 4665137 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You think that's relevant?

The SPR holds even more.  They will still drain it on a whim.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:00 | 4665066 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Interesting call.

 

WTI oil is showing top.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/wti-oil-daily-climbs-early-tanks-consec...

 

If USD strengthens (implying that Euro will weaken), WTI will have a difficult time staying up.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:01 | 4665072 Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

He might be pulling out the Goldman strategy. Doing the opposite of what he recommends.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:05 | 4665092 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Bearish!

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:16 | 4665138 paddy0761
paddy0761's picture

OK. Long copper, short oil. Got it.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:22 | 4665159 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Short Gartman Newsletters in Toilet Paper..and long Zerohedge in Bitcoins.....also Heinken

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:32 | 4665195 TaperProof
TaperProof's picture

I'm long wild turkey kentucky bourbon and jack daniels.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:31 | 4665193 db51
db51's picture

Does anyone but me wish they would line these Fucktards up in front of a firing squad?  Without a blindfold....maybe put a couple of rounds in the knee and testicle area before one between the eyes.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:36 | 4665211 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Sweet,  should save a few bucks when I fill up with gas in 2 days.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:38 | 4665225 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Gartman and Cramer should start a new TV show. It would be a great hit with the sheeples. Bells, whistles, beards. We can call it the Cramer and Gartman Fuck Fest. Big hit. 

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:45 | 4665268 Lastline
Lastline's picture

FUCK GARTMAN

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:49 | 4665301 A_Nejad
A_Nejad's picture

Waait a minute....Isn't everyone in here long Oil?  What, waiting for $25 barrel, or best case scenario $80s range?  Even with incoming extra iranian oil, it's still not enough to cancel out loss of production from Iraq, Libya, Nigeria (from what I hear)...not to mention Russian mess.....Hello??  

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:52 | 4665315 CHX
CHX's picture

Crude retest of 105 complete, set to go lower unless open war breaks out in the very near future, me thinks.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 13:29 | 4665774 Spungo
Spungo's picture

Has it occured to anyone that Cartman might be cursed? Like he's actually a super smart guy who makes very well through out claims, then the whole universe changes just to make him completely wrong every time?

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