Federal Reserve Asks "Where Are The Jobs"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Five years into the "recovery" and The Atlanta Fed thinks it's time to figure out where jobs come from (spoiler alert: there is no job tree). The Atlanta Fed has investigated trends in a variety of firm types to better understand why labor market progress continued to be slower than hoped for in 2013... the findings - when it comes to job creation, there is no simple solution. But Ben and Janet said?...

 

Who or What Creates the Jobs?

A striking feature of the Great Recession was not so much the rise in the number of firms cutting their payrolls—that always happens in recessions. What was unprecedented was the dramatic collapse in the number of firms that expanded. Early in the recovery, firms continued to have the lowest rate of job creation on record, and fewer new firms were created in 2009 and 2010 than in any other time in the previous 30 years. Although the unemployment rate fell faster than expected in the latter part of 2013—roughly four-and-a-half years into the recovery—hiring rates at firms were still relatively subdued.

The Atlanta Fed has investigated trends in a variety of firm types to better understand why labor market progress continued to be slower than hoped for in 2013. Researchers started by looking at small firms, since their economic struggles are often singled out as a major reason why the U.S. jobs engine has faltered. These researchers found that all businesses were hit hard by the recession. They looked at firms across a variety of dimensions—age, size, industry, and location—to determine where the jobs are.

Small firms versus large firms

Most businesses are small. Almost 96 percent (or 4.7 million) of firms had payrolls with fewer than 50 people in 2011 (the latest census data available). These firms accounted for 28 percent of all payroll jobs. They also create many new jobs—about 40 percent of new jobs each year, on average. However, the rate of gross job gains fell sharply for small firms during the recession and recovery, in part because fewer new firms were created but also because small firms sharply curtailed hiring as heightened uncertainty and a weak economy made them more hesitant to expand.

Large firms are also an important source of new jobs. The largest 1 percent of firms account for about as many new jobs each year as do all the firms with fewer than 50 employees. But large firms have also been creating jobs at an unusually slow pace.

New firms versus young firms

Start-ups gained a lot of attention in the aftermath of the recession, in part because of the dramatic decline in new business formation. These new firms are also important because they create an outsized share of new jobs. In 2011, 8 percent of firms were new—most of them were very small—and they contributed about 16 percent (or 2.5 million) of new jobs that year. But having a continual flow of new firms each year is important because the jobs that start-ups create can be fleeting. Indeed, more than half of young firms typically fail within their first five years of operation.

Gazelles versus gorillas

Although many firms fail in their early years, a small fraction of young firms grow very rapidly. These so-called gazelle businesses are also a significant source of job creation. A recent Atlanta Fed study looked at the properties of fast-growing Georgia firms during the 2000s and found that about half of the firms that had a high rate of employment growth were young. However, more jobs were generated by older, generally larger, fast-growing firms, sometimes called gorillas. On a national level, high-growth firms have declined as a share of all firms, from 3 percent in the late 1990s to 1.5 percent in 2011. During the same time, these fast-growing firms added fewer jobs, falling from 45 percent of jobs created at expanding firms to 34 percent.

While data on these and other characteristics provide a window into the types of firms that typically create jobs, they also underscore the fact that when it comes to job creation, there is no simple solution.

+++++++

One can't help but read this and consider the underlying pressure this implies to maintain the large companies at the expense of the small ones?

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Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:21 | 4667282 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

End. The. Private. Fucking. Cartel.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:32 | 4667325 Keyser
Keyser's picture

The only industry that has constantly added jobs over the last 5 years is the gubbamint... There's your growth industry, at your and my expense... 

 

 

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 20:09 | 4667443 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

if you are a middleman (and most people are: real estate, retail, teacher...) the internet will take your job if it hasn't already. just bought a pair of shoes. free shipping in both directions. no tax. add to this robotics and jobs are dinosaurs.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 20:17 | 4667480 CH1
CH1's picture

You want jobs? Then LEAVE PEOPLE ALONE... as in "not stealing half of what every productive person earns."

Yeah, I know, the sociopathic thieves will never go for it.

Why is it that people obey them?

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:36 | 4667346 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

As in complete, miserable, fucking failure.  Thanks, Ben.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 23:29 | 4668152 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

Not for Ben and Obozo's rich friends.

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 09:28 | 4669160 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

Or Bush's, Halliburton, Searle, etc.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:37 | 4667352 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Quit making shit up....

Govenment emplyment is at 50 year lows....

https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/data-analysis-documentation/fe...

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:41 | 4667370 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Government salaries and benefits are at all time highs,

  as is government/transfer payments as a percent of GDP ~ 50 percent nominal,

  but much higher if you include off the books liabilities.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 20:57 | 4667644 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

WWTRIS?

http://www.rockinst.org/newsroom/data_alerts/2010/07-23-govt_employment....

(what would the rockefeller institute say?)

hugs,
former one-hearbeat-from-the-presidency nelson 

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 23:34 | 4668162 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

 

 

"Jobs????  You mean where folks have to work and such?"

"What a quaint notion."  -- Free Shit Army

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:43 | 4667375 saints51
saints51's picture

Do you read the shit you type before posting?

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:47 | 4667381 Stormtower
Stormtower's picture

Ok....but look at the huge growth in the legislative and judicial branchs. Everyone in government now has major bennies and huge salaries compared to the private sector........they also double and even triple dip on retirements. Insane!

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 20:01 | 4667398 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Certified, sociopathic goons can "get a job" with the Hobbs, NM "police" and earn between $22.28 -$25.62 an hour!

Bonus: A $25,000 housing incentive for five years or $50,000 for 10!

Call "The Chief" @ 575 393-cops

Can't make this shit up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=im66lCgZrbc

http://townhall.com/watchdog/newmexico/2014/04/14/whatever-happened-to-p...

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:59 | 4667418 Carl Popper
Carl Popper's picture

You are failing to include those who survive on government contracts for services and widgets.   They are de facto government employees like me.

 

90 percent of my patients are gooberment insurance

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 20:12 | 4667464 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

Any layoffs amongst the navel gazers at The Fed?

No, suppose not...

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 23:38 | 4668176 Matt
Matt's picture

Working at the Federal Reserve is not a government job ...

 

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 05:01 | 4668613 Gold Eyed Cat
Gold Eyed Cat's picture

I am not sure if you are joking or not.

This is the same old "change the definition" trick that the governement has been using for years.  There are more government employees than EVER.  They are now called "contractors" and they are hired by companies whose only reason for being is to take government money and then issue payroll checks to people doing government work.

I know this first hand.

Really, you should know better!

 

 

 

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:39 | 4667362 doctor10
doctor10's picture

How come anything a Federal Beurocrat can't understand is so complex? Too much taxes, too much regulation, too many licenses, too much insurance, crappy USD.

and, oh, by the way, rule of Constitutional Law is in the way of the beurocrats-so they disregard it

 

That's all.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:55 | 4667405 Carl Popper
Carl Popper's picture

Exactly.

 

Those things increase employment friction.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 22:44 | 4668044 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

They do not live in the real world where they have to produce for a living. This also includes most economists and  academics. The real world seldom intrudes in their elite musings.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:43 | 4667374 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Drudge had the classic article this morning. Sorry if this is a repost:

86M Full-Time Private-Sector Workers Sustain 148M Benefit Takers

http://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/terence-p-jeffrey/86m-full-time-privat...

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:23 | 4667289 dirtyfiles
dirtyfiles's picture

why bother if only one job counts "printing press operator"

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:51 | 4667300 813kml
813kml's picture

Well, I hear that Steve is six feet under.  Not sure about the rest of 'em.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:27 | 4667304 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

Atlanta..enough said right there.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 22:19 | 4667969 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

That's where the walking dead are!!!

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:28 | 4667310 Ariadne
Ariadne's picture

Where are the jobs? Start on page 836: https://texasrepublic.info/documents/atlasshrugged.pdf

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:30 | 4667311 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Where are the jobs?

Inflated away.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:38 | 4667358 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Exported to China while the pension funds were looted by the plutocrats...

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 20:01 | 4667425 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Strawman. There is no more powerful man-made force than currency debasement, Skippy.

Those jobs are not outsourced if currency maintains its purchasing power. PERIOD.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 22:08 | 4667928 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Really?

Please explain how....

What happened is simple wage arbitrage....

BTW, you would do well to lay off the Skippy shit....

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 23:42 | 4668187 Matt
Matt's picture

There are many tools used to drive jobs over to China. Labour laws, unions, environmental regulations, taxes, etc. Even if the USD maintained its purchasing power, that would not stop China from fixing the exchange rate to gain an advantage. Also, intellectual property theft.

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 08:23 | 4668891 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

One of the dumber comments I have seen on here in recent memory.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:32 | 4667316 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

tk'kurrrjerrbs

 

http//www.youtube.com/watch?v=768h3Tz4Qik

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:33 | 4667329 thethirdcoast
thethirdcoast's picture

Except that, thanks to NAFTA, WTO, GATT, IMF, TPP, etc, they actually did, take our jobs.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:51 | 4667390 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

And, the job's they can't outsource currently, they fill with imported foreign labor.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 22:33 | 4668011 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Multinationals always crying for more H1Bs because they can't find the talent at the right price.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:32 | 4667320 Hohum
Hohum's picture

The real story about jobs is that tens of millions of people have jobs that add little to our welfare.  No one will admit this to himself, though.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:37 | 4667354 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

What Hohum said ^^^^^^^

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:53 | 4667397 813kml
813kml's picture

Welfare is a job, and I hear it pays pretty good.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 20:08 | 4667449 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

pays ok - i gots' to get my scratch offs and power ball and some old english and then order some papa johns for the knicks game.  it's a lot of work.  sometimes i wake up at 11 and it's tough getting back to sleep.

 

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 20:18 | 4667487 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

You try managing 3 IDs, 4 EBT cards in 3 states, one Fed Gov disability, 3 babymommas, 6 of my childlins, 6 of herses, plus a house painting company and for rental duplexes. I be beat every day.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:32 | 4667324 spine001
spine001's picture

When an ecosystem is not allowed to eliminate the large non productive components, it ends up killing the whole ecosystem.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 20:52 | 4667622 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Currently TPTB cherish the useless eaters for their votes and pay them handsomely, with our tax $$$...

 

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:34 | 4667333 Heyyouguys
Heyyouguys's picture

What a bunch of BS. Bttom line if you lost your job at a good salary, you're only hope is finding another at a lower salary.

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 13:49 | 4670135 fallout11
fallout11's picture

How much longer before that is 200 million and 34 million, respectively?

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:34 | 4667335 blackchips
blackchips's picture

Dear God how stupid does the Fed believe we are? Have they been so busy printing for the ruling class that they failed to notice their country's slaven, golden, middle class geese have been slaughtered at the hands of Marxists who have overtaken governement policy and, uh, 1/6 of the US economy with Obamacare?

The REAL census numbers came out: 86 million MAKERS for 126 million TAKERS now in the US. How f'ing far does the FED believe we'll get growing THAT economy? What IDIOTS.

 

 

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 19:39 | 4667363 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

The good jobs started disappearing in the 80s....

Long before Bennie and the Inkjets...

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