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Housing Starts, Permits Miss As Rental Euphoria Fizzles

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While both the Housing Starts and Permits data reported moments ago disappointed - and sorry, you can't blame it on weather this time - with both sets of data missing expectations (Starts 946K, Exp. 970K up from a revised 920K; Permits 990K, Exp. 1010K down from a revised 1014K), the real story was in the composition of single family vs multi-family, or rental units, which showed that the previously reported rental euphoria has well and truly fizzled after a dead cat bounce in last 2013 could not be sustained. And perhaps more importantly, the complete lack of any real bounce in single-family housing, which remains at levels seen in late 2012 for starts, and is now rolling over for permits, confirms that the so-called hosing recovery not only slipped right through the vast majority of normal people, but even Wall Street is finally pulling out as builders themselves realize.

 

The misses...(behold the recovery?)

 

Total Housing Starts and sequential change:

 

Broken down by Single and Multi-Family units:

 

And Total Permits, seasonally adjusted and actual:

 

... and finally broken down by Single and Multi-family. Not the surge in rental permits.

 

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Wed, 04/16/2014 - 08:58 | 4664633 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

i blame it on the taper and therefore highly recommend we un taper.  oh wait, there is no taper.  just lying now as janet prints and directly monetizes the debt via "Belgium".

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 09:15 | 4664683 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

renters=roadkill

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 09:17 | 4664689 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

It's the weather stupid!

 

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 09:27 | 4664714 DavidC
DavidC's picture

...And the pre market's...

Going up.

DavidC

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 10:06 | 4664833 Manbeast Wangdango
Manbeast Wangdango's picture

"hosing recovery".

Sounds more like it.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 10:24 | 4664902 SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

Housing Fizzle Starts

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 08:59 | 4664635 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

I have owned an apartment complex for many years and we are currently experiencing the largest number of vacancies we have ever had. Many houses in the area are empty or under leased. In 2005 and 2006 prior to the housing collapse many people were looking at second homes, for investments or as a vacation getaway.

Today not only have many people shed the extra home many have doubled up with family or friends reducing the need for housing. We are pushing on a string and calling it demand when someone who can barely pay the rent is encouraged by the government to buy a house they can neither afford or maintain. We have a shortage of "qualified" buyers and renters. More on how low interest rates are hurting housing in the article below,

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/12/super-low-interest-rates-disservi...

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 09:12 | 4664673 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

my confidence in the housing market will return when i can buy one at the dollar store.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 09:30 | 4664723 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

No need to go to the dollar store.  Take a vacation to Chicago, home of the Prezzz, and pick up a lot  just blocks from the POTUS' very own home for a mere $1.

 

In a plan approved by the Chicago Plan Commission Thursday, homeowners and nonprofits in Englewood will be able to buy city-owned vacant lots for $1.

 

http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/26317882-418/city-wants-to-offer-vaca...

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 11:51 | 4665311 Atticus Finch
Atticus Finch's picture

Move quick, the Dollar Store is closing 370 locations.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 13:02 | 4665618 TrollHurter
TrollHurter's picture

Shit.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 08:59 | 4664639 valley chick
valley chick's picture

Bullish for squatters in NY "coffins"!

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 09:03 | 4664652 youngman
youngman's picture

I think these hedge funds that bought all those vacant REO Houses are going to eat their lunch....to manage those is a nightmare..much more expensive than an apartment complex....I think it will cost 30% more to manage...and I do not see the values jumping that much.....

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 09:24 | 4664695 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Speaking of hedge funds. It's funny how they have no sense of value. They are buying up houses around here in Indiana for rentals. But they think that just  they seem cheap compared to what they are paying on the coast. What they are really getting are pieces of shit. We have a guy in town who buys them off of Craig's list for close to nothing then he sells them to the hedgies sight unseen for four  or five times what he paid for them. The hedgies  think they are getting a good deal..... until they try to sell them someday.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 09:04 | 4664653 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

Im sorry but Bill Ford is on Bloomberg, he looks like a fucking Frankenstien.  Why do these people think botox or whatever he did to his face looks good.  Jeeze!

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 09:04 | 4664657 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

New Mustang looks nice though.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 13:28 | 4665387 novictim
novictim's picture

He is saying "See, I can afford Botox!  Therefore, I am wise on money matters."

Botox is the new pinstripe suit and the ingratiating smile. 

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 13:54 | 4665927 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

It's a great way to maintain a poker face, you just need to mind the blinkig when you lie. Politicians and central planners the whole world over are doing it!!

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 09:08 | 4664664 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Sit tight folks who own rentals, the collapse will create a new market of renters and it is right around the corner!  Don't buy any of the media contrived "recovery", a "recovery" does not have a middle class disappearing or artificial markets in equities, bonds, employment (if you can believe anything in that report), or does it have 45 million on food stamps and 69% of households on government assistance and with a government running a trillion dollar deficit.  Let’s not forget 5 year CD rates at 1% lol!  This is no more than a charade!

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 09:38 | 4664740 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Well said.

1% before taxes...

Buying CDs or bonds at these levels is a reverse intelligence test.

 

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 10:20 | 4664893 SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

Too Cool!

What's your upside for what the new [marginal] cashless renters will be able to pay toward the invested cost?

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 09:12 | 4664674 hotrod
hotrod's picture

Advancing Time

"I have owned an apartment complex for many years and we are currently experiencing the largest number of vacancies we have ever had."

 

What market are you in?  If it is Detroit etc. then understandable.  If you are in a generally robust/vibrant area then alarming.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 09:54 | 4664767 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

He may or may not want to say.  This may be helpful.

Virginia, is statisticly a strong state for income and housing, but everyone is crowding into Northern Virginia (our tax money) Tidewater (military bases) or a couple of college towns.  Housing and rentals in those markets are pricey, even getting ridiculous. but in the rural counties (most of them) nothing finds a bid.

State wide stats look strong, but I wouldn't trust that. 

 

 

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 09:12 | 4664675 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Don't see much in the way of spec homes going up. If builders were so confident they would be building.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 09:18 | 4664696 youngman
youngman's picture

In Denver they built 10,000 aprtment units last year...and another 10,000  this year...I think that will come back to haunt them..

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 13:49 | 4665889 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Anticipating tokers to move in from prohibition states maybe?

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 09:19 | 4664698 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Just did a search in my NoVa area for rentals in the $1200-2000 range and found 20 properties for rent. Any lower than that and you are in the ghetto hood. The DC area is insane right now. No rentals available and very little inventory. If the house is nice and priced with neighborhood comps then it stays on the market less than a week and in many cases less than 2 days.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 09:32 | 4664729 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

It still is the weather - What we are experiencing is pent up demand for more bad weather that is being realized in less permits applications.

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 09:44 | 4664757 learnmesomething
learnmesomething's picture

All these charts are using 2005/06 as a baseline...the absolute peak of insanity.  How can that be used as a baseline?

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 10:10 | 4664847 youngman
youngman's picture

 How can that be used as a baseline?....because we herre at ZH are insane.....lol

Wed, 04/16/2014 - 10:25 | 4664905 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

CNBC would say "well off the lows".  That makes it a bit more palatable.

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