Philly Fed Surges To 7-Month Highs As "Hope" Crashes To 1-Year Low

Tyler Durden's picture


The Philly Fed Business Outlook survey surged to 16.6, beating expectations by the most since September and rising to 7-month highs. Most subindices rose with shipments surging and new orders rising but prices paid flat. The big worry though is that this six-month forward expectations collapsed to their lowest since April 2013. So the pent-up-weather-demand is being seen as entirely unsustainable by the survey respondents...



Full table:

From the report:

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from a reading of 9.0 in March to 16.6 this month, its highest reading since last September (see Chart).  The index has now increased for two consecutive months, following the weather?influenced negative reading in February. The new orders and current shipments indexes also moved higher this month, increasing 9 points and 17 points, respectively.


Indicators suggest slightly improved labor market conditions this month.  The employment index remained positive for the 10th consecutive month and increased 5 points, suggesting overall improvement. The percentage of firms reporting increases in employment (20 percent) edged out the percentage reporting decreases (13 percent).  The workweek index was also positive for the second consecutive month, edging 2 points higher.


Price Pressures Are Relatively Moderate


The survey’s price diffusion indexes continue to suggest overall moderate rates of increase.  The prices received index was unchanged at 4.3.  Nearly 76 percent of the firms reported no change in their final goods prices, and the percentage of firms reporting increases (13 percent) was only slightly greater than the percentage reporting decreases (9 percent).  The prices paid index edged slightly lower, to 11.3, its third consecutive month of decline.  Seventeen percent of the firms reported higher input prices, down from 19 percent in March. 

More notably, here is the comment on the only negative in today's report: the forward expectations which "inexplicably" tumbled:

Firms remain optimistic about the growth of overall manufacturing activity for the next six months. The future general activity index remained positive; however, the index decreased nearly 9 points from its reading in March (see Chart).  Indexes for future new orders and shipments also edged lower. The future new orders index decreased 3 points, while the future shipments index decreased 8 points.  Firms’ responses about future employment continued to reflect overall confidence about future conditions. The percentage of firms expecting employment growth (27 percent) was greater than the percentage expecting employment declines (11 percent).  The index, however, decreased 13 points, exactly reversing a 13?point increase in March

Finally, in a special question, respondent firms were asked why they remain in the Philly region. Here is what they listed as their primary reasons:

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Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:10 | 4669332 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

China must be proud of our Bullshit...

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:13 | 4669349 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

its all fucking bullshit.


''today, the ''market'' should be down triple digits with horrible earnings from google and ibm, yet its flat and about to go green shortly.


amazing how every fucking wed that stupid ugly ass fucking cunt who pumps the market up by saying the same exact shit she has said since day 1.


fuck yellen u ugly ass bitch

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:20 | 4669374 Hohum
Hohum's picture


The pharmaceutical industry has this drug called Valium.  Take a couple, you'll feel better.

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:45 | 4669461 gjp
gjp's picture

There's a lot of us who feel the way TMIR does.  Everyone has to find their own way of coping, but vailum is pretty much the equivalent of taking the blue pill is it not.

I'd say the anger is appropriate and healthy given the current state of the world we live in.

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 11:47 | 4669679 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

started in with the scotch at 6:30-7am when they started to ramp ES... pills soon oxycodone, etc

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:16 | 4669358 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

perfect for another vix smash-fest just like last 3 days

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:20 | 4669375 SmilinJoeFizzion
SmilinJoeFizzion's picture

Vlad will have something to say about that- 

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:44 | 4669456 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

Get to work Mr Yellen, if you think your going to keep this bitch above 4000 and 1815 when Vlad and the boys get rolling in the Ukraine!!

Although, I think that situation is going to look alot like Iraq in 91, it looks like the military is going to defect in mass, or surrender to the Russians without a fight! Vlad will be able to reinstall his boy in Kiev, and the Americans will be abandoning ship while everyone we worked with will be rounded up or killed!! The EU will stay quiet, as long as Vlad withdraws (minus Crimea) and the Ukraine looks like it did pre Olympics, and cheap gas flows for everyone again!!

If its quick, the stock market may drop 10%, but if all goes as described above, the BTFD will kick in on the Algos and we are back to the races with the added layer of fake market rhetoric bullshit, about a correction blah blah blah, and bingo.......... mass inflation can continue through fall!!!!

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:17 | 4669360 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

If they could only print Hope....

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:33 | 4669419 blabam
blabam's picture

Mainstream Media? 

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:18 | 4669363 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

i gutta get outa this bizness, it's waaaaay too rigged...farming with an arsenal of weapons seems to be the best bet ;)

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:18 | 4669364 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The only numbers that matter are S&P 1815 and Nasdaq 4000. Defense of these numbers are paramount and all other numbers are moot.

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:26 | 4669400 valley chick
valley chick's picture

And to beat down GLD and SLV.






Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:22 | 4669384 tommylicious
tommylicious's picture

Does this market feel like 2004/2005 to you or if not, what?

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:26 | 4669399 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

No it doesn't. In 2004/2005 we didn't have the fed intervening on every pull back.

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:28 | 4669406 tommylicious
tommylicious's picture

good point.  so we probably get to vix sub-12?

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:47 | 4669463 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

More like Fed intervention on every. single. trade.

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:51 | 4669481 youngman
youngman's picture

Its the Belgians I tell ya...they have all the cash now...???????

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:24 | 4669390 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

lots of revenue misses so far just like all the last quarters, but we have non GAAP, buybacks, etc... party on

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:25 | 4669391 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

they can't even rally IBM and goog but es is in launch mode anyway

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:28 | 4669392 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

and Alcoa, wtf?

i guess accounting shenanigans and a good looking chart suffices in Yellen's bizarro world

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:25 | 4669397 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Well you know that Philadelphia has been having extreme weather this year.

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:27 | 4669402 hairball48
hairball48's picture

All statistics are bullshit these days. Who cares anymore?

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:33 | 4669421 Armed Resistance
Armed Resistance's picture

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Mark Twain

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:27 | 4669403 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

as long as the dividend covers margin interest and bonuses paid we go higher. btath [/bitchez]

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:32 | 4669413 tommylicious
tommylicious's picture

This is really interesting point. If you chart the forward expectations longer-term, you don't see a drop like this since March-June 2011, Oct 2007-Mar 2008, Dec 2005 - Jun 2006 !!!!

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:36 | 4669431 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   I call bullshit on the prices paid indicator. Fucking oil has been in an upward trajectory since March 17th.

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:44 | 4669454 Bill of Rights
Thu, 04/17/2014 - 11:35 | 4669633 Caracalla
Caracalla's picture

Yep, I have some May puts and I'm starting to get a bit nervous

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:45 | 4669460 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

god this is just getting silly.

Thu, 04/17/2014 - 10:46 | 4669464 hairball48
hairball48's picture

Unlike many of you guys, I'm not a trader, or even an investor these days. So I don't care about all these charts, graphs, and "statistics".

And I don't understand why anyone pays much attention to stats that are composed of blatantly manipulated numbers that everyone knows are suspect.

People will find out just how corrupt all these numbers are when this next crash comes.

I love this shit :)


Thu, 04/17/2014 - 11:33 | 4669625 Caracalla
Caracalla's picture

Just BTFD and you won't be angry; you'll make money.  Now is the perfect time to BTFD anyway before this afternoon's big 3:15-3:30 rally.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!