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Gas Prices Hit 13-Month Highs, Prompt Macro Concerns

Tyler Durden's picture




 

At $3.67, US Regular gasoline prices are their highest since March 2013 having risen over 12% (40c) in the last 2 months. This must be great news, right? It must mean world demand is picking up and driving up prices of crude oil as global trade soars (amid a collapsing Baltic Dry and decelerating Chinese growth). This can't be related to "war premia" right? - as we noted here - because stocks (which always know best) have discounted all this tomfoolery. However, as the following chart shows, each time gas prices have surged up toards the Maginot Line of $3.80, US macro-economic fundamentals have collapsed... the only problem is, this time is different - because macro data is already weak going in (and expectations for the post-weather pop are high).

 

Gas prices heading towards the crucial $3.80 level - and US macro is already weak ahead of this turning point...

 

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Sun, 04/20/2014 - 15:46 | 4677708 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Macro concerns, bitchez!

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 17:51 | 4677960 RevRex
RevRex's picture

Don't worry, 'when I'm President, I'll do something about high gas prices'.....

 

Gas was $1.79 when the OboweMovement assumed the Presidency.......

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 18:14 | 4678013 fattail
fattail's picture

Please...  Gas was a 1.79 because t-bill yields were negative and people were paying the gov't to hold their money overnight.  The worlds financial system had collapsed.  Obama had no hand in that.  

 

If you remember, before the collapse, gasoline was $4.00 a gallon in July of 08.

Obama had no hand in that.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 18:17 | 4678018 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

$4?  Oil was $147 July 2008.

It's $104 now and gasoline is again $4.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 22:07 | 4678482 TinF0ilHat
TinF0ilHat's picture

It's those fucking paper traders.

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 09:47 | 4679207 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

The funny thing is, you could have $1.60 gas again in a fortnight. Simply require anyone holding a oil futures contract for more than 3 days to take delivery. End of speculation. Period.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 15:48 | 4677710 Wait What
Wait What's picture

$4.50 is cheap out west. by the time driving season starts, sheep will have to start selling equities to overpay for the fuel to get to the supermarket where they will overpay for bacon, oj, and pinky-slime-beef-substitute.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 15:50 | 4677720 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Strong Sheeples enough to bend over and text about thier fucking SUV's 

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:02 | 4677736 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

People love to complain; they will love to hate higher costs as it is a reason to bitch.  They will max out the credit to keep up with the Joneses.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:36 | 4677798 rocker
rocker's picture

Gas prices are one of the few ways left for the powers in charge to take money from the masses. The other is food.

More people will use credit to buy food and gas vs. the "Joneses". They need the gas to get to their 10 dollar a week job.

Then to buy food. Why else would gas be so high while the U.S. has more oil than it knows what to do with.

The Central Banksters probably still have tankers off shore that they need to unload at over 110 a barrel.

Surely it is not a demand issue any more. And GEO dosen't pass the sniff test either.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:53 | 4677829 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

More oil than we know what to do with?  You mean the expensive fracking we are doing?  You mean the fracking that has a shelf life of 5-7 years to maintain the production levels that are current?

Right, that oil.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 18:21 | 4678029 rocker
rocker's picture

So, do you believe the gulf is dried up and done. I don't. Do you think the reserves found by Petrobras are fake. I don't.

Do you think that Iran is dried up too. I don't, even though they don't know how to do it yet, they will get it out of the ground.

Even if China has to do it for them. They are friends you know. These are just a few. Russia has much more too. 

Sorry, but I do not believe in the "Peak Oil Theory".  And never will. Albeit, these prices will eventually kill the economy and demand.

Respectfully, Have a Great Day. Even if Easter Driving Season is over.

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 01:33 | 4678732 Kprime
Kprime's picture

Math was never your best subject?  Low math grades in grade school, dropped out after that?

I am forming a new company to build a pipeline to Mars.  We have discovered oil under the ice in the south pole.  Want to get in on the ground floor?  How many shares can I put you down for??

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 05:52 | 4678865 Victor999
Victor999's picture

The sources you quote only are capable of supplying a relatively small amount of global needs.

This Australian Peak Oil paper by their BITRE (Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics) has been out for a while (~2011).  It was published in 2011, but promptly suppressed by the government and disappeared. 

Fascinating report.  And I think very close to being accurate.

The big cliff date according to this is 2017, when oil production, even independent of price and economics, begins its inevitable drop.

http://ianmcpherson.com/blog/audio/Australian_Govt_Oil_supply_trends.pdf

Quote from Executive Summary (seen in the context of the year 2008):

In conclusion, this paper indicates that although the oil production prospects of different countries and regions vary immensely, the prospects for potential world conventional liquids production can be summarised as ‘flattish to slightly up for another eight years or longer (depending on the duration of the global economic slowdown) and then down’. In this short run, the effects of the global economic slowdown are likely to mean that curtailed demand, not potential supply, will be limiting factor on oil production. But, given the magnitude of the downturn foreseen for the rest of the century, and given the inertia inherent in our energy systems and transport vehicle fleets, the challenge for global transport will remain.

 

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:49 | 4677814 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

I think the Jones's lost their McMansion to foreclosure in '09 with millions of others who were mortgaged up to their eyeballs. The allure of "keeping up with the Jones's" has been replaced by middle class families who are now just trying to keep their heads above water before drowning in crushing debt, rising taxes and an inflationary environment which is manifesting itself in goods (food, fuel, utilities) that are a necessity.

Discretionary items (remember, you can't eat an IPad) may be deflating but non-discretionary item prices are skyrocketing. This may be the final blow to middle America. The polarization may soon be complete and we will end up no better than a banana republic with nothing but the rich and the poor.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:56 | 4677839 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Sure, but nobody will admit defeat.  As soon as their heads are above water they load back up on credit expenditures that will eventually weigh them down.  It is a warrior society after all, and warriors - for the most part - like to collect goods.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 17:12 | 4677863 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Respectfully, I believe the warrior mentality has been greatly dimished due to most peoples reliance on the state for their security. Self-reliance has been replaced by dependency.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 17:35 | 4677926 mc225
mc225's picture

is that what the spartans were doing? ...'collecting goods' so they could live a 'spartan existence'?

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:12 | 4677757 Dr. Kenneth Noi...
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater's picture

Meh, $3.43 at my local station for regular, up from $3.09 about 3 months ago.  Not that I care though, electricity is costing me still just about $0.04/mile (or $1.40/gal at 35mpg equivalent).

Plus, another $7500 back from the Feds (bringing me to ~14% fed rate), which when combined with the rest of my return, would be enough for a M82 Barrett.  Hopefully the credit's still around in time for a Model X, I <3 free moneys from teh suckaz...

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:15 | 4677763 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

"There's never been a better time then now to buy a house ...  way, way out in the suburbs."

Hey, don't forget those toll roads popping up everywhere.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:27 | 4677777 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

it costs $15 bucks now to get from Long Island into the bronx and even more to get into NJ. $15 fucking bucks for a bridge that i used to chuck a quarter into the basket when i was a kid, and the bridges are all falling apart despite everyone pay a thousand fucking percent more to cross them so we can fund the pensions here.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 18:49 | 4678102 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

get out of that hellhole fonz - i did a few years ago and couldn't be happier,

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 19:00 | 4678129 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I'm trying man. Believe me I am.

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 05:31 | 4678854 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Do it or don't - there ain't no "trying" ....

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 01:25 | 4678725 Kprime
Kprime's picture

.25 * 6000% = $15.00

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:30 | 4677779 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Dr Ken -

That's a 10% increase in 3 months.  YoY that's a 40 fucking percent increase.  And the money you get back from the Fed's lost value since you sent it in; remember a dollar is worth more now than it is in the future.  Thank Uncle Janet for that.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:59 | 4677845 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Time to go long wheelbarrows.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 18:51 | 4678106 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

there's always a bull market somewhere and I'm here to help you find it - Jim Cramer

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 15:49 | 4677711 One And Only
One And Only's picture

Obama got you bro.

http://www.wnd.com/2008/07/71044/

"Inflating your tires is better than drilling for oil" No I didn't make that up (sadly).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akjXqfvLu28

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 15:48 | 4677714 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Amerikans are rich Bitchezz. Let them feel richer by fucking showing their fucking SUV's and nothing more. Waiting for the single Moms to be hookers to get gas money. 

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 21:46 | 4678436 Tengri Temujin
Tengri Temujin's picture

Right on the money Jobe, the Ukraine chicks were being hookers back in Soviet times to get a pair of Jeans, now they do it for an Ipad or an Iphone, every country has its token object and threshold, in the USA you are right, it will be gas to get around in their SUVs.  They will wait by the gas pumps and give you a blow job in your truck so you ca fill their tank half way, for a full tank they will let you fuck any orifice you want.  And mind you those SUVs can cost more than a hundred buck to fill up.  Me personally I would rather fill up the college chicks tank, she drives a little economy car and her tits are perkier, not to mention she is a little more tight unlike the single mom.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 15:48 | 4677716 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

AMERIKAN EXECEPTIONALISM Bitchezz. Bring on $4.00 /gallon and Amerikans will still drive. 

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 15:51 | 4677718 Notsobadwlad
Notsobadwlad's picture

From my talks with people, even though Q1 was pretty good, April is weakening,

I don't expect anything serious until next year when TPTB will most likely use the upcoming change of elected parties to dump a bag of shit that will be waiting in the doorstep for the new adminitration.

It seems impossible to ever get a worse president than Obozo the clown. However, the world is consistently surprising me... and as long as the elections are rigged with fiat money and the press, there is little hope for the future.

Anyone want to bed that the Repukes do not repeal Obummer-care when they dominate after 2016.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 15:51 | 4677723 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

BIS Report - 

BIS: The most powerful bank in the world announces the crash

http://translate.google.de/translate?sl=de&tl=en&prev=_t&hl=de&ie=UTF-8&...

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:02 | 4677735 Notsobadwlad
Notsobadwlad's picture

There is no way out simply by inflating. The only way out is by writing off bad debt, reinstalling the types of controls that existed after the depression and then restarting the rebuild at a slow growth pace.

It is a very serious and difficult task. I believe that the BIS and globalists want the crash to be so bad that people and governments are desperate enough to accept their pre-packaged global solution.

IMO, diveristy and distribution of power makes the system robust, not putting all of the eggs in one globalist basket.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 17:36 | 4677934 mc225
mc225's picture

'reinstalling the types of controls'... cuz everything needs to be 'controlled' right?

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:04 | 4677745 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten, is a bullshit doomer site.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:07 | 4677749 jusman
jusman's picture

The article dates to Sept 19, 2013 - and the "crash" hasn't happened yet.....

 

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 17:29 | 4677906 rocker
rocker's picture

Definitive Word: "yet".

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 22:22 | 4678503 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Hillary/Jeb - that's worse than the Kenyan. And we'll likely get it, too. A fucking nightmare.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 15:53 | 4677724 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Are we at the planned crash yet?

Wall Street licking their lips to clean the 401K/I.R.A. chips of the populace off the table again.

I'd bet the big boys have been gradually selling while rotating in the casino; just enough to keep the sheeple fooled.

"Look honey, our retirement fund is back to where it was in 2007; it looks like we can retire and Ben Bernanke is a genius."

Don't hold your breath kids, Ides of 2009 for those retirement statements.

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 15:34 | 4680502 SDShack
SDShack's picture

MyRA to the rescue!

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 15:54 | 4677725 Cattender
Cattender's picture

$3.89 here in Michigan this week.. (up from $3.85)

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 15:54 | 4677726 chunga
chunga's picture

Throw another 50 cents a gallon for gas without crappy ethanol in it.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:42 | 4677810 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

I live in western IA, KING of ethanol where the non ethanol blend is 30 fucking cents higher a gallon, yet I still refuse to put the cheaper shit in my tank. 

Fuck you big ag. I'm also quite fond of flipping the bird at all the chemical applicators driving the row gators and terra gators in the fields spreading all that shit on the ground before planting starts. Then they wonder why the fucking cancer rates keep climbing around here. No offense to any farmers here, I know many and there are many good, generous families that farm, large and small. I just wish they would wake the heck up and see what is really going on.

 

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 18:45 | 4678093 chunga
chunga's picture

Just one reason why I hate it...it wrecks small engines after a while.

Speaking of gas...never throw away "old-fashioned" gas cans. Just mowed the yard. I bought a new 1 gallon tank for the low, low price of ~ 15 dollars. This new piece of shit has a safety fuckin spring contraption in the nozzle. It's an awesome safety improvement alright. When it gets warm it builds pressure and sprays out a nice shot of gas when you press down to let the gas out. Even loosening the cap slowly you can feel the vapors flying out. Thanks alot you bureau of safety fuck-head goons; I'm going to poke a hole in this thing dickheads to defeat your crappy mandated design. fuck you. What a country...it's hard to even pick anything up that isn't fucked up by some stupid law...I assume the old cans that don't spray gas...are now illegal. Jerks.  I need a fucking beer. make that 10

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 22:06 | 4678477 Bitchin Bear
Bitchin Bear's picture

Amen about the damned cans!  You have to be ambidexterous to even think about using them.  I've torn up two already and spilled more damn gas than i ever would have with the old style.  Someone's stupid in law must have come up with the design.  Your government dollars at work

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 15:58 | 4677729 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

Regular is $4.29 at Chevron in SoCal.  I've seen it as high as $4.39.  Understandably, people are bitching.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 17:18 | 4677794 PacOps
PacOps's picture

About the same in the SF Bay Area with 7 local refineries at hand. I go to SF from Walnut Creek once a week ... figure it costs me ~$20 with the bridge toll r/t. When I first started to drive back in the late 50s I would drive completely around the bay on Sundays in my Austin Healey 100/6 just for the fun of it. Cost less than $2 including bride tolls. Gas was about $0.25/gal.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 18:23 | 4678032 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

If you live on the coasts, you

1) don't have enough refineries, so the Gulf Coast refineries are shipping gasoline farther to get to you, and those refineries you DO have are processing Saudi and Nigerian crude priced rather higher than low demand WTI.  So you will pay more for gasoline than Missouri.

2) Just in general . . . does this look like abundance to you?

3) You can always move to civilization . . . you know, flyover country.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 15:59 | 4677732 max2205
max2205's picture

Who drives anymore. ..who commutes to work anymore. ....who works anymore? 

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 19:08 | 4678147 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

my aunt makes $95 an hour working from home, but all the kids say she's a whore

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:00 | 4677733 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Well, next month when the govt stats show that there was actually DEflation on gas this month, then we'll all feel stupid.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:04 | 4677746 Notsobadwlad
Notsobadwlad's picture

Join the military ... they use lots and lots of gas and emit huge amounts of CO2 to contribute to global warming.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 17:42 | 4677914 PacOps
PacOps's picture

FYI the US military has agressive programs in place to not only research but has in place alternative energy production and fuels.

And its the Congress that calls the shots and therefore has the responsibility for what the military may or may not do or use. And they keep their cronies who supply the military and make large campaign contributions locked in.

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG969.html

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 17:22 | 4677889 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

I read the story, Bogus MSM, IMO.

They are closing as more and more people have less and less bath house bucks.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:01 | 4677738 QE49er
QE49er's picture

When everything thing goes up except Gold & Silver you know the whole system is a completely rigged joke.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:38 | 4677799 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

It certainly begs the question, WTF is the point of owning metals if they don't at least keep up with everything else?

Are we stuck in the current price channel forever? If so, it would seem silly all the parroting and shouting of the virtues of owning them.

A rigged joke indeed. I've said since late '07, there are more rabbits they can pull out of top hats than we can fathom. I'm not anti metal, far from it, but some days question all the hype.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 17:37 | 4677935 PacOps
PacOps's picture

Your point is well taken - I tell myself every time as I count out the $100 bills I exchange for metal I will be able to walk away with holding in my hand ... Its just paper backed by bullshit. I'm at the point I really no longer care what the price is at that day. And then I sleep even better at night. If I am wrong? Peace of mind in the present is priceless.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:05 | 4677744 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

POTUS has got your back and is aiming for a twofer in opening up the SPR. Pain for Putin and votes for Dems.

Not so much "Strategic" as "Tactical".

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 18:25 | 4678037 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

At $104 we're definitely due for threat #2 on the SPR, but I'd guess it will delay a few months to get closer to the election -- but oh my, what a day that will be when an SPR move is made . . . and the price doesn't fall.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:11 | 4677753 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

We are at $3.99 for 87 octane in the SF Bay outskirts.  We are right at the area of resistance that has been fallen back from consistently and promptly, for the past several years.  If we cross and hold to the upside, con gusto, coupled with the drought ... well,"stand by" as our drill instructors were so fond of saying.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:13 | 4677758 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

SaN Fran can afford to pay 5 or so dollars. CA is doomed as is , now added bonus. Must look good going broke. New AMERIKA 

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 17:12 | 4677865 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

Hongcha - cali has been messing with the gasoline. My mileage is down from 30 mpg to 35-26. Bascially a 15% price increase.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:12 | 4677756 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Higher prices mean:  More fiat petro-dollars that can be absorbed by QE and UST sales.

Plan accordingly.  New bicyle or Prius for anyone?

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:13 | 4677759 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Amerikans can afford to walk , maybe this might be a good thing.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:14 | 4677762 J_jade
J_jade's picture

americans will be paying 8-10 a gallon and canadians will be paying 2.00 a litre.  ive said it hundred times.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:50 | 4677824 laboratorymike
laboratorymike's picture

Just like the Europeans, right?

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 21:05 | 4678373 J_jade
J_jade's picture

Yup. jsut like in eurpoe.  What they do is give you the medicine a little bit at a time by raising the prices, a little one year, a little the next, so the average person doesn't notice or figure out the consipracy.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:50 | 4677823 laboratorymike
laboratorymike's picture

Gas is at $3.70 in IA, but it's bike season, and I like biking more than driving (the town is suited to it). We're moving to TX so outside of summer heat waves we will probably forego driving for everything but long distance trips.

It's debatable whether that's a good thing (falling standard of living), but that's what it is.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 16:51 | 4677825 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Great, now I get to hear people whining about gas prices while they fill up their Hummer/suburban.  

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 17:10 | 4677859 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

Gasoline is high enough in SoCal that I notice.  Seeing more people on bicycles and 2 neighbors bought motorcycles. 

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 17:11 | 4677864 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I ain't paying for Putins sanctions. I'm jogging.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 17:24 | 4677891 jackthelad
jackthelad's picture

Your price is US$7.00 here (NZ) You ain't seen nothin' yet

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 08:54 | 4679087 madcows
madcows's picture

The petro dollar is in the process of ending.  Watch the collapse happen as we can no longer print prosperity.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 17:38 | 4677938 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Gas price, macro, Baltic dry; all irrelevant.  lets see the FED balance sheet chart, its the only one that matters.  

 

Gas could go to 10$ per gallon, macro to -100, and shipping could go to zero, as log as the FED balance sheet keeps going up so will the market.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 18:32 | 4678055 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I must be hungry all I got out of this article was mac'n'cheese.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 18:38 | 4678078 Gusher
Gusher's picture

My name is Barrack Obama and I am the one we have been waiting for. I'm going to bring the economy out of th ditch. I'm going to save you money with green energy. I'm going to save you $2,500 per year on health insurance. I'm going to improve our standing in the world!!   Hmmm...did I forget anything?  Oh ya, I'm going to lower the seas!!!   And one more thing, what's Romney ever done?  Cash for clunkers? No, that was me!   And so the anoited one won a 2nd term.  And the malaise continued upon the people for 40 days and 40  more months.   Thanks to 51% of the voters being completly stupid!

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 08:53 | 4679084 madcows
madcows's picture

well, vote fraud may have accounted for say, 10%.  So, that means that only 41% are completely stupid.

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 19:03 | 4678140 WMM II
WMM II's picture

"At $3.67, US Regular gasoline prices are their highest since March 2013 having risen over 12% (40c) in the last 2 months. This must be great news, right?"

 

vacationers will handle $4.00 a gallon this year. at 4.50,....well, i think that would hurt some this year, but shows up next year as a down turn no matter the price of gas then.

 

:)

Sun, 04/20/2014 - 21:18 | 4678394 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Just waiting for the big bank goon squads to start a refinery fire/explosion, a pipeline rupture, a Liberian rebels attack, another oil barge/tanker collision, or combination of the above.

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