Gas Prices Hit 13-Month Highs, Prompt Macro Concerns

Tyler Durden's picture

At $3.67, US Regular gasoline prices are their highest since March 2013 having risen over 12% (40c) in the last 2 months. This must be great news, right? It must mean world demand is picking up and driving up prices of crude oil as global trade soars (amid a collapsing Baltic Dry and decelerating Chinese growth). This can't be related to "war premia" right? - as we noted here - because stocks (which always know best) have discounted all this tomfoolery. However, as the following chart shows, each time gas prices have surged up toards the Maginot Line of $3.80, US macro-economic fundamentals have collapsed... the only problem is, this time is different - because macro data is already weak going in (and expectations for the post-weather pop are high).

 

Gas prices heading towards the crucial $3.80 level - and US macro is already weak ahead of this turning point...

 

Chart: Bloomberg

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Soul Glow's picture

Macro concerns, bitchez!

RevRex's picture

Don't worry, 'when I'm President, I'll do something about high gas prices'.....

 

Gas was $1.79 when the OboweMovement assumed the Presidency.......

fattail's picture

Please...  Gas was a 1.79 because t-bill yields were negative and people were paying the gov't to hold their money overnight.  The worlds financial system had collapsed.  Obama had no hand in that.  

 

If you remember, before the collapse, gasoline was $4.00 a gallon in July of 08.

Obama had no hand in that.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

$4?  Oil was $147 July 2008.

It's $104 now and gasoline is again $4.

TinF0ilHat's picture

It's those fucking paper traders.

Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

The funny thing is, you could have $1.60 gas again in a fortnight. Simply require anyone holding a oil futures contract for more than 3 days to take delivery. End of speculation. Period.

Wait What's picture

$4.50 is cheap out west. by the time driving season starts, sheep will have to start selling equities to overpay for the fuel to get to the supermarket where they will overpay for bacon, oj, and pinky-slime-beef-substitute.

I am Jobe's picture

Strong Sheeples enough to bend over and text about thier fucking SUV's 

Soul Glow's picture

People love to complain; they will love to hate higher costs as it is a reason to bitch.  They will max out the credit to keep up with the Joneses.

rocker's picture

Gas prices are one of the few ways left for the powers in charge to take money from the masses. The other is food.

More people will use credit to buy food and gas vs. the "Joneses". They need the gas to get to their 10 dollar a week job.

Then to buy food. Why else would gas be so high while the U.S. has more oil than it knows what to do with.

The Central Banksters probably still have tankers off shore that they need to unload at over 110 a barrel.

Surely it is not a demand issue any more. And GEO dosen't pass the sniff test either.

Soul Glow's picture

More oil than we know what to do with?  You mean the expensive fracking we are doing?  You mean the fracking that has a shelf life of 5-7 years to maintain the production levels that are current?

Right, that oil.

rocker's picture

So, do you believe the gulf is dried up and done. I don't. Do you think the reserves found by Petrobras are fake. I don't.

Do you think that Iran is dried up too. I don't, even though they don't know how to do it yet, they will get it out of the ground.

Even if China has to do it for them. They are friends you know. These are just a few. Russia has much more too. 

Sorry, but I do not believe in the "Peak Oil Theory".  And never will. Albeit, these prices will eventually kill the economy and demand.

Respectfully, Have a Great Day. Even if Easter Driving Season is over.

Kprime's picture

Math was never your best subject?  Low math grades in grade school, dropped out after that?

I am forming a new company to build a pipeline to Mars.  We have discovered oil under the ice in the south pole.  Want to get in on the ground floor?  How many shares can I put you down for??

Victor999's picture

The sources you quote only are capable of supplying a relatively small amount of global needs.

This Australian Peak Oil paper by their BITRE (Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics) has been out for a while (~2011).  It was published in 2011, but promptly suppressed by the government and disappeared. 

Fascinating report.  And I think very close to being accurate.

The big cliff date according to this is 2017, when oil production, even independent of price and economics, begins its inevitable drop.

http://ianmcpherson.com/blog/audio/Australian_Govt_Oil_supply_trends.pdf

Quote from Executive Summary (seen in the context of the year 2008):

In conclusion, this paper indicates that although the oil production prospects of different countries and regions vary immensely, the prospects for potential world conventional liquids production can be summarised as ‘flattish to slightly up for another eight years or longer (depending on the duration of the global economic slowdown) and then down’. In this short run, the effects of the global economic slowdown are likely to mean that curtailed demand, not potential supply, will be limiting factor on oil production. But, given the magnitude of the downturn foreseen for the rest of the century, and given the inertia inherent in our energy systems and transport vehicle fleets, the challenge for global transport will remain.

 

AlaricBalth's picture

I think the Jones's lost their McMansion to foreclosure in '09 with millions of others who were mortgaged up to their eyeballs. The allure of "keeping up with the Jones's" has been replaced by middle class families who are now just trying to keep their heads above water before drowning in crushing debt, rising taxes and an inflationary environment which is manifesting itself in goods (food, fuel, utilities) that are a necessity.

Discretionary items (remember, you can't eat an IPad) may be deflating but non-discretionary item prices are skyrocketing. This may be the final blow to middle America. The polarization may soon be complete and we will end up no better than a banana republic with nothing but the rich and the poor.

Soul Glow's picture

Sure, but nobody will admit defeat.  As soon as their heads are above water they load back up on credit expenditures that will eventually weigh them down.  It is a warrior society after all, and warriors - for the most part - like to collect goods.

AlaricBalth's picture

Respectfully, I believe the warrior mentality has been greatly dimished due to most peoples reliance on the state for their security. Self-reliance has been replaced by dependency.

mc225's picture

is that what the spartans were doing? ...'collecting goods' so they could live a 'spartan existence'?

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater's picture

Meh, $3.43 at my local station for regular, up from $3.09 about 3 months ago.  Not that I care though, electricity is costing me still just about $0.04/mile (or $1.40/gal at 35mpg equivalent).

Plus, another $7500 back from the Feds (bringing me to ~14% fed rate), which when combined with the rest of my return, would be enough for a M82 Barrett.  Hopefully the credit's still around in time for a Model X, I <3 free moneys from teh suckaz...

Son of Loki's picture

"There's never been a better time then now to buy a house ...  way, way out in the suburbs."

Hey, don't forget those toll roads popping up everywhere.

fonzannoon's picture

it costs $15 bucks now to get from Long Island into the bronx and even more to get into NJ. $15 fucking bucks for a bridge that i used to chuck a quarter into the basket when i was a kid, and the bridges are all falling apart despite everyone pay a thousand fucking percent more to cross them so we can fund the pensions here.

Squid Viscous's picture

get out of that hellhole fonz - i did a few years ago and couldn't be happier,

fonzannoon's picture

I'm trying man. Believe me I am.

Bearwagon's picture

Do it or don't - there ain't no "trying" ....

Soul Glow's picture

Dr Ken -

That's a 10% increase in 3 months.  YoY that's a 40 fucking percent increase.  And the money you get back from the Fed's lost value since you sent it in; remember a dollar is worth more now than it is in the future.  Thank Uncle Janet for that.

AlaricBalth's picture

Time to go long wheelbarrows.

Squid Viscous's picture

there's always a bull market somewhere and I'm here to help you find it - Jim Cramer

One And Only's picture

Obama got you bro.

http://www.wnd.com/2008/07/71044/

"Inflating your tires is better than drilling for oil" No I didn't make that up (sadly).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akjXqfvLu28

I am Jobe's picture

Amerikans are rich Bitchezz. Let them feel richer by fucking showing their fucking SUV's and nothing more. Waiting for the single Moms to be hookers to get gas money. 

Tengri Temujin's picture

Right on the money Jobe, the Ukraine chicks were being hookers back in Soviet times to get a pair of Jeans, now they do it for an Ipad or an Iphone, every country has its token object and threshold, in the USA you are right, it will be gas to get around in their SUVs.  They will wait by the gas pumps and give you a blow job in your truck so you ca fill their tank half way, for a full tank they will let you fuck any orifice you want.  And mind you those SUVs can cost more than a hundred buck to fill up.  Me personally I would rather fill up the college chicks tank, she drives a little economy car and her tits are perkier, not to mention she is a little more tight unlike the single mom.

I am Jobe's picture

AMERIKAN EXECEPTIONALISM Bitchezz. Bring on $4.00 /gallon and Amerikans will still drive. 

Notsobadwlad's picture

From my talks with people, even though Q1 was pretty good, April is weakening,

I don't expect anything serious until next year when TPTB will most likely use the upcoming change of elected parties to dump a bag of shit that will be waiting in the doorstep for the new adminitration.

It seems impossible to ever get a worse president than Obozo the clown. However, the world is consistently surprising me... and as long as the elections are rigged with fiat money and the press, there is little hope for the future.

Anyone want to bed that the Repukes do not repeal Obummer-care when they dominate after 2016.

I am Jobe's picture

BIS Report - 

BIS: The most powerful bank in the world announces the crash

http://translate.google.de/translate?sl=de&tl=en&prev=_t&hl=de&ie=UTF-8&...

Notsobadwlad's picture

There is no way out simply by inflating. The only way out is by writing off bad debt, reinstalling the types of controls that existed after the depression and then restarting the rebuild at a slow growth pace.

It is a very serious and difficult task. I believe that the BIS and globalists want the crash to be so bad that people and governments are desperate enough to accept their pre-packaged global solution.

IMO, diveristy and distribution of power makes the system robust, not putting all of the eggs in one globalist basket.

mc225's picture

'reinstalling the types of controls'... cuz everything needs to be 'controlled' right?

debtor of last resort's picture

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten, is a bullshit doomer site.

jusman's picture

The article dates to Sept 19, 2013 - and the "crash" hasn't happened yet.....

 

rocker's picture

Definitive Word: "yet".

Wahooo's picture

Hillary/Jeb - that's worse than the Kenyan. And we'll likely get it, too. A fucking nightmare.

ebworthen's picture

Are we at the planned crash yet?

Wall Street licking their lips to clean the 401K/I.R.A. chips of the populace off the table again.

I'd bet the big boys have been gradually selling while rotating in the casino; just enough to keep the sheeple fooled.

"Look honey, our retirement fund is back to where it was in 2007; it looks like we can retire and Ben Bernanke is a genius."

Don't hold your breath kids, Ides of 2009 for those retirement statements.

Cattender's picture

$3.89 here in Michigan this week.. (up from $3.85)

chunga's picture

Throw another 50 cents a gallon for gas without crappy ethanol in it.

quasimodo's picture

I live in western IA, KING of ethanol where the non ethanol blend is 30 fucking cents higher a gallon, yet I still refuse to put the cheaper shit in my tank. 

Fuck you big ag. I'm also quite fond of flipping the bird at all the chemical applicators driving the row gators and terra gators in the fields spreading all that shit on the ground before planting starts. Then they wonder why the fucking cancer rates keep climbing around here. No offense to any farmers here, I know many and there are many good, generous families that farm, large and small. I just wish they would wake the heck up and see what is really going on.

 

chunga's picture

Just one reason why I hate it...it wrecks small engines after a while.

Speaking of gas...never throw away "old-fashioned" gas cans. Just mowed the yard. I bought a new 1 gallon tank for the low, low price of ~ 15 dollars. This new piece of shit has a safety fuckin spring contraption in the nozzle. It's an awesome safety improvement alright. When it gets warm it builds pressure and sprays out a nice shot of gas when you press down to let the gas out. Even loosening the cap slowly you can feel the vapors flying out. Thanks alot you bureau of safety fuck-head goons; I'm going to poke a hole in this thing dickheads to defeat your crappy mandated design. fuck you. What a country...it's hard to even pick anything up that isn't fucked up by some stupid law...I assume the old cans that don't spray gas...are now illegal. Jerks.  I need a fucking beer. make that 10

Bitchin Bear's picture

Amen about the damned cans!  You have to be ambidexterous to even think about using them.  I've torn up two already and spilled more damn gas than i ever would have with the old style.  Someone's stupid in law must have come up with the design.  Your government dollars at work

Westcoastliberal's picture

Regular is $4.29 at Chevron in SoCal.  I've seen it as high as $4.39.  Understandably, people are bitching.

PacOps's picture

About the same in the SF Bay Area with 7 local refineries at hand. I go to SF from Walnut Creek once a week ... figure it costs me ~$20 with the bridge toll r/t. When I first started to drive back in the late 50s I would drive completely around the bay on Sundays in my Austin Healey 100/6 just for the fun of it. Cost less than $2 including bride tolls. Gas was about $0.25/gal.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

If you live on the coasts, you

1) don't have enough refineries, so the Gulf Coast refineries are shipping gasoline farther to get to you, and those refineries you DO have are processing Saudi and Nigerian crude priced rather higher than low demand WTI.  So you will pay more for gasoline than Missouri.

2) Just in general . . . does this look like abundance to you?

3) You can always move to civilization . . . you know, flyover country.