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"Riders On The Storm:" A Fictional Letter Explaining What Is Going On In Russia

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Submitted by John Carter,

Gennady,

Hello! It’s a long time since we’ve spoken. I still remember our adventures in New York with pleasure.

Of course, we’ve noticed the posts you’ve been making recently on RSB 117. Don’t worry, you aren’t in any trouble, these are all reasonable questions to ask. Have we really thought about the long-term economic consequences of our actions? Do we actually understand the likely effects in the markets, and the way they will affect our macroeconomic stability and growth prospects? Are we really willing to sacrifice all the benefits of a convertible ruble and access to world capital markets, just for Crimea, and part of the Ukraine, and perhaps some tiny, insignificant pieces of Estonia or Moldova?

The questions are reasonable ones, but that doesn’t actually mean that we would prefer that you continue to ask them in public in such an acute and penetrating way, simply because we’d prefer that not many people deduce their correct answers at this point. So Higher has authorized me to share with you some of the actual logic of our overall strategic thinking. Of course, we must ask that you exercise the utmost in discretion, as usual. But we thought it would be useful to give you, at least, some idea of what is really going on, and where we are headed with it, as it may be necessary to turn to you, at some point, for advice on tactics.

First, the strategic objective. It’s true, as you say, that our hand has been forced by recent events, but in fact we are exploiting an unexpected opportunity, not fighting a fire, executing a contingency plan developed some time ago, one of several we have available to take advantage of likely occurrences, one that will significantly advance our long-term strategic goals. If it hadn’t been Crimea, now, it would have been something else, in the next few years.

An opportunity to do what? Our public story has always been that we are engaged in some kind of atavistic gathering of the Lands, doing our best to recreate the good old days of the vanished Soviet Union. This is a convenient belief, so we have encouraged it. It is convenient because it allowed us to establish, in Georgia and elsewhere, the principle that we could still use naked force in inter-state relations, without provoking the alarm that a more obviously open-ended program of conquest might have. But really, one should think in more ambitious terms.

Of course, the Lands must be gathered, but there are two other things driving our overall strategic approach, one a problem and one an opportunity. The problem is America. The opportunity is Europe. The moment to move against both of them is now.  This is our chance to finally break NATO. We’ll get away with it because we’re going to do it subtly, destroying the alliance by snipping threads, here and there, that will cause the whole thing to unravel under the stresses of the coming few years. Our opponents have forgotten the difference between lies and the truth, and as a result they typically have no idea, themselves when they are bluffing. It is finally time to call a bluff – the claim that NATO would defend former Soviet republics – that our opponent never knew was a bluff, and so invalidate even their more serious promises.

How? We are about to do something that we have seen the Americans do several times now, most recently against Iran; fight a largely economic and financial war. The twist is that we are by far the weaker power, so we must do it in a clever way. But our opponents are, for now, so poorly led that they have put themselves in an enormously vulnerable position. We can withstand another crash in world markets – all we’ll have to do is arrest a few people, it will be salutary – but none of our opponents will win the next election if there’s another crisis like the one in ’08, or an even worse one, so for them finding some way to accommodate us before we can bring that about is a matter of political life and death.

Of course, the real reason the markets have to crash, sooner or later, is that the Fed and the Bank of Japan and the ECB would have to keep geometrically expanding the volume of money printing to keep the bubble they’ve already blown up from bursting, but instead the Fed has already reached its limits and is starting to taper. Even if they flinch this time, and re-expand QE, as we expect them to, continued geometric increase is impractical for very long. So the effort to prevent a crash in financial markets by surrendering to our demands will ultimately fail, but before it does, we can expect our opponents to offer many valuable concessions.

Once the final panic in the market does get underway, we will be able to take advantage of its disorganizing effects, while they will be crippled by them. Democracies are easily distracted. Who knows how long from now that will be? Not I, or anyone. It could happen tomorrow, or not for another five years. In the meantime, it is very much in our interest to keep the threat that we will precipitate a crash alive.

We are facing opposing powers that are intrinsically much stronger than we are, governed by people with no real survival instincts, who have made no effective preparations of any kind for a military or economic conflict. In that kind of strategic environment, great things can be accomplished with slender means. Fortune favors the bold. The trick will just be keeping the conflict non-kinetic and unconventional, and achieving as much as we can before they finally wake up and make a real stand. Each action must seem independent, each move must seem like it might be the last one we’ll make. Bit by bit, step by step, we will back them into a corner, simply because their planning horizon is three days, and ours is thirty years. The risk is limited, because our opponents are desperate for peace, and will gladly let us switch off the war the minute it begins to go against us. (This is the meaning of the American president’s endless “exit ramps”; what he is actually telling us is that we can end the confrontation whenever we please.)

By now American voters are very tired of their endless imperial wars, which started so many weary years ago, and as far as they can see, have achieved exactly nothing for them. The whole project of empire has been publicly discredited, though no part of the empire has been relinquished. That’s the paradox of Obama’s presidency – he still carries on all the various wars of empire and meddling provocations, but at the same time doubts their necessity, and is constantly tempted to repudiate them. The tentacles of the jellyfish continue to sting, like independent creatures, even after the brainless animal has lost interest in the fight. He wants to overthrow several of the world’s governments, and is actively undermining them – but his heart really isn’t in it. He starts wars that he has no will to win.

This, to our minds, is a strategic vulnerability that simply has to be exploited, because it means he can be fought – and beaten – fairly easily. Nothing can enhance a state’s prestige and influence more than taking on and defeating the currently paramount power, so America’s current strategic stance – impressive means, incoherent goals, absolutely no political will to achieve them, an attention span of three days – is a standing invitation to attack. We have done quite well against them in Syria, and there is no reason to think their performance on the Ukraine will be any better. Samantha Powers will still be piously scolding us and threatening to un-friend us on Facebook as the tanks roll into Kiev; she might well go on doing the same thing if we took Warsaw, or Berlin, though of course we currently have no plans to send tanks to those two places.

The natural tendency of the American voter is isolationism – he has difficulty seeing why other peoples’ troubles should matter to him, though he’s a good fighter once he’s reluctantly become involved in them. The trick is just to find some way to tip him back into his pre-1942 state of selfish indolence without doing any actual fighting. A much higher oil price and a deeper depression might do it, at this point, so it’s fortunate that we’re in a position to bring that about. The people who make up America’s current political leadership won’t really put up much resistance – they tolerate the existence of the empire because it’s lucrative for powerful constituents, and costs them, personally, nothing, but they are presiding over an inherited political system and an inherited security architecture which they fundamentally don’t believe in, don’t understand, and have no will to defend. If they have to choose between health care and Europe’s security, of course they will choose the good they understand and believe in – freedom from pain and the postponement of personal death for as long as possible – over the one they’ve never understood or sympathized with.

If we are really determined to restore full Russian sovereignty, up to and including the right to go to war on other powers without seeking anyone’s permission, as is our sacred obligation as guardians of the security of the Russian people and nation, war with America or her proxies can’t be avoided anyway, because as things are now, we won’t ever again be able to exercise our sovereign rights to make war and peace without fighting them, they will always get involved at an early stage. Since war can’t be avoided, and we’re the weaker power, if we want to win we must attempt to control the time and circumstances of the fight. We must fight a limited war when we can win, in a clever way that allows us to win, to avoid having to fight a war when we can’t. That means we have to start the fight ourselves, instead of waiting for them to start it. We must attack, because we are the weaker party, and need to keep the strategic initiative to achieve our goals.

So much for the problem, now for the opportunity. Only a year or two ago, the European Union seemed to be teetering on the verge of dissolution. I think that it would be very much in our interests to see that actually happen, especially if NATO goes with it. (This is why Estonia is essential; NATO thinks they will defend it, we must show them that they will not. Once one NATO member has been abandoned to our mercies, the principle will have been established, and we can deal with the Poles – our single biggest problem – at our leisure.)

The EU, as it presently exists, is a relic of an American-backed project to create a European super-state, a United States of Europe, that specifically and deliberately excludes us. In any such confederation, German hegemony is virtually certain. That is intolerable. We, of course, would prefer to see a European political architecture that includes us, one in which we have a chance at playing a leading role. But only by destroying the existing EU, and NATO, and starting over from scratch will we really be able to arrive at a satisfactory outcome.

The near-dissolution of the EU a couple of years ago was the result of an economic crisis, and so the question of whether or not it is possible to bring another such crisis about naturally arises. It’s my belief, as I’ve already explained, that an eventual renewal of the crisis is not only possible, but inevitable. Given that inevitability, the only choice available to us is that of whether or not to take control of the event, and use it.

The strange thing, really, is the apparent conviction, on the part of many European and American elected officials, that another financial crisis can actually be avoided, forever. Apparently they think that they can indefinitely postpone the next recession. From the outside, however, it has become quite obvious that the “developed” economies are locked in a cycle of artificial booms and genuine busts. It’s useless to speculate on the ultimate reason – what we actually know is that this is a group of people who for more than a decade now have not achieved anything like the rates of economic growth they had expected and planned for. As any polity experiencing a growth shock of this kind would, they have been resorting to more and more desperate expedients to try to delay the day of reckoning with this huge ongoing shortfall, in the process making things worse and worse each time they lose control.

Russia, and Brazil and China for that matter, are simply carried along as passengers on this increasingly violent roller-coaster ride. If we don’t want our currencies to appreciate uncontrollably against the dollar, we have to print rubles or yuan to buy up the excess dollars the Fed is printing to try to keep the world economy from crashing, so we inflate our own economies and pile up huge reserves of foreign exchange in the upswing, and then in the downswing, when the panic finally comes, all that money tries to rush out of our economies at once, making our markets and our currencies crash.

So you see, Gennady, another crash in the ruble and the MICEX is inevitable, sooner or later, simply as a consequence of the Fed’s current policies, whether we annex parts of the Near Abroad, or not. The question is just whether we initiate it ourselves, and ride the storm, first using the threat of a global financial crisis to manipulate and damage our enemies, or else are mere passive victims of the cycle, as we were in the last two iterations. The question is whether we Russians are capable of learning anything from experience, whether we have learned not to be the greatest fools in an artificial bull market. Perhaps, if we can develop the political will to abandon convertibility quickly enough, we can even avoid being caught in the crash, this time. The reserves the Fed forced us to accumulate will allow us to postpone the decision for years, if we’d like, and in that amount of time, it may even be possible to complete the operation and escape default and devaluation. If not, well, those are both things we know how to do, and last time the pain only lasted two or three years, which is nothing.

Since another panic in world markets is inevitable sooner or later, we plan to try to use it, this time, surf on it, let it carry us to our strategic goals. In order to do that, we need to be, or at least to appear to be, in control of the timing of events. The threat of cutting off Europe’s natural gas is a threat of precipitating a European recession, which would reduce tax revenues and bring the Mediterranean bond markets back into difficulties. A shock from the price of oil at the same time would make things even worse. The Europeans will concede anything in order to avoid that, because it threatens their whole European project, for which they have already sacrificed so much. This great harm, which is actually going to befall them no matter what they do, can be made to look, for a little while, like something it is in our power to provoke or prevent. They will allow us to get away with murder, if we can just produce that illusion – and it’s our job to take as much advantage of this fleeting opportunity as we can.

In the end, though, we really may have to go so far that we do force them to give up the oil and gas, because another European recession or depression now is absolutely necessary to our longer-term strategic plans. We can promise to turn the gas back on, if they’ll just give us Ukraine, but then drag things out somehow during the negotiation of the details, insisting on various implausible principles in a tedious and impractical manner, so that the economic damage is done anyway… We ourselves are likely to get caught in the depression as well, of course, no matter what we do, war or no war – which is why we actually need an external enemy now, to justify an increase in political repression and the imposition of exchange controls. During a war, many ways of managing an economy that would be impossible during peacetime are perceived as legitimate, so a confrontation with Europe will, in some ways, give us more freedom of action.

The Americans are in a position to take a more hawkish stance than the Europeans, and they may eventually begin to agitate for that approach, as things move on. Obama is in his second term, and the Democrats might not mind being out of power for the next two years, if they are going to be really bad ones for the voter, so even higher oil prices might be tolerable as far as they are concerned, as long as the other party can be blamed for their effects. Sooner or later, wise old men like Brzezinski, who still remember what it is like to have an actual thinking opponent, will be listened to. Or perhaps not, perhaps it will simply be impossible for the current leadership to ever wrap their heads around the idea of actually getting into a fight against someone with the means to fight back.

The European leaders, in any case, are, in our judgment, such complete pacifists that instead of welcoming their assistance in a crisis, they may easily be brought to resent the Americans’ hawkish interference, which perhaps can be used to drive a wedge between the two parties. We must try our best to seem, at some crucial point, both reasonable and conciliatory to the Europeans, and utterly insane and out of control to the Americans. Given the somewhat differing character of the two ruling elites, and the in particular the rather thoughtless jingoism of the Republicans, and their great love of draconian sanctions, that shouldn’t actually be all that difficult to accomplish. Perhaps a Republican victory in the upcoming American midterm election would serve our purposes – another way a crisis in financial markets could benefit us strategically.

Our immediate objective, by first threatening and then managing an economic crisis, is, of course, to regain control of the Ukraine, the whole thing, unopposed, step by step, perhaps annexing the East if that’s convenient, and at the same time to intimidate the Europeans, force them to publicly back down, to openly beg us to turn the gas back on, and have the Americans do nothing very effective to rescue them. The cherry will be Estonia; having failed to defend Ukraine, NATO will find it hard to rally to reverse the results of yet another referendum, even one conducted on the soil of a nominal NATO member. Kerry and Merkel may well abandon the Estonians to their fate – if so, that will be the last that will be heard of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. If not, we can always drag out the crisis, and use it to extract more concessions in other domains. At the end, we want discredited European leaders bickering with each other as the EU and NATO crumble, and an exasperated America confined to the sidelines.

This will establish a precedent – if the Americans didn’t do anything about the first act of bullying, what is going to make them do something about the next one, or the next one, or the next one after that? It will show who really has the leverage in Europe, now. At the same time, the world economy will be crashing again. Nationalists will be rising to power in European countries, and the people who run Europe now will do anything to defeat them. One side or the other will end up as our allies. We’ll simply support whichever looks weaker. Beppo Grilli as Prime Minister of Italy or Marine Le Pen as Prime Minister of France would be a political windfall beyond our wildest dreams. We think we can manipulate such a combination of circumstances to our ultimate advantage, especially if we can get the Americans out of the picture – a protracted period of chaos and disunity in Europe is exactly what we need now.

While the threat of gas and oil cutoffs and the recession and crashes those could produce are our main point of leverage, there are other tools as well. It is important to keep direct military pressure on Ukraine. We can’t afford to let the situation stabilize as it is now, and we have yet to encounter any effective resistance, so the thing is to push on as quickly as is possible without provoking a real reaction. We need to discredit the Kiev government and, eventually, replace them with our allies. Ultimately we must use as much force as is necessary to achieve that goal, even if it means shooting some rioters in the streets. But here as everywhere, we can only win by fighting smart. I think you know what I mean by that, in a Ukrainian context.

Of course, as you’ve correctly pointed out, the Ruble will eventually crash, no matter what we do, if the crisis goes on long enough. Since we didn’t want it to appreciate in a way that would kill our economy, we were forced, by QE, to accumulate huge dollar reserves, enough to accommodate years worth of capital outflows without a crash, if we choose to spend them that way. We may not need to, though, if we can impose really effective exchange controls quickly enough.

Anyway, last time the ruble crashed, things were already going back to normal two or three years later. The people who will lose the most in a ruble crash are the European banks – our oligarchs own real assets, not paper money, and they are willing to be patient for the sake of the nation, as long as we subsidize them enough to keep them from going bankrupt.

We must prepare for a temporary loss of our oil and gas export revenues, of the sort the Iranians have suffered, another reason to impose exchange controls and arrest our domestic political opponents ASAP. If the ruble does crash, the seven hundred billion dollars Russians owe European banks must of course be written off, which by itself may be enough to precipitate a financial crisis in Europe.  In either case, the end-point is, yes, Gennady, another default on our debts and a retreat from full convertibility. And about damn time, too – there are serious drawbacks to full participation in the global dollar economy, periodic economic and political shocks that make it more trouble than it’s worth. The experience of a number of countries shows that it’s possible to do well behind the barrier of a non-convertible currency, as long as you manage sensibly. India has done well. Our strategic position will be greatly improved once that transition has been accomplished – we will no longer be dependent on Fed policy and world financial markets, and will be able to conduct counter-cyclical economic policy without always having to worry about the ruble’s exchange rate against the dollar.

Militarily, we are, of course, much, much weaker than the Americans, but we also are closer to home and fighting for something we care a lot more about. If we keep thinking outside the box, we can fight an asymmetric, unconventional, non-kinetic financial and political war and win, wring political concessions from an enemy who’s too urbane and sophisticated and hip and ironic to want to risk becoming involved in an open-ended nuclear brawl. We might actually benefit from the opportunity to machine-gun some protestors, if we could do it at a time when the enemy would have trouble coming up with a coherent response, for example in the middle of a financial panic. And, again, the enemy is dying to negotiate, so we can switch the war off at any time, if it begins to go badly. Since we’re by far the weaker party, we, as always, prefer a limited conflict. In an emergency, however, the use of nuclear weapons over our own territory – say, against an overflying satellite – would freeze our gains in place, while we negotiated a de-escalation.

So you see, Gennady, we are actually quite prepared to see the stock market crash, to see all the stock markets in the world crash, and the yields on our dollar bonds rise to whatever level. We are prepared for much worse things. We may, ourselves, be in a position to bring this outcome about, in at least two different ways – cutting off the gas to Europe, and suddenly defaulting on all our bank loans - and we think it favors us strategically, so we probably will try, sooner or later. The stock market will go back up some day, whether we win or lose, and if we end up defaulting, history shows that we’ll be borrowing in world bond markets again three or four years later. We risk a brief period of manageable economic suffering, while on the other side the whole global financial and political system is at risk, along with the retirement savings and medical plans of countless voters.

The inevitable economic setback may result in some political opposition within Russia itself, but in the context of an escalating confrontation with Europe it shouldn’t be too difficult to cope with. Stalin developed some very effective techniques for managing public opinion, both inside and outside of Russia; as his heirs, we must use them. The alternative is to wait for some other falling domino – China, Turkey, Thailand, Japan – to cause the next crash in world markets, and once again be caught in it as hapless victims. It’s worth taking the risks we’re taking because the other possible worlds in which we don’t take it aren’t actually all that wonderful either, and because we’re playing for all of Europe, and therefore ultimately for the whole world.

I hope that makes things a little clearer. Yes, it is a risky strategy, but a Europe dominated by Russia, or at least detached from the United States and disunited, is a prize worth risking everything for. Beppo is worth a crash. Of course, I can’t say anything about our more detailed military plans at this point, but this should suffice to explain the overall logic behind our willingness to, yes, Gennady, sacrifice the convertible ruble and the stock market for control of the Ukraine and a tiny part of Estonia, if necessary.

Think about what I’ve said – some of it may come as a shock, but in the end, I think you’ll agree that it’s actually good news that the long tense period of waiting is finally over. We can’t win a conventional or a nuclear conflict, but this plan really might succeed. If not, well, we Russians are used to overcoming adversity. In any case, it is what Higher has decided, so it behooves us all to get behind it, and push. A word to the wise.

It would be great to get together and talk in person sometime, though I’m afraid we won’t be meeting in New York again for a while.

Gennady, I remain, sincerely

Your friend, Sasha

 

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Mon, 04/21/2014 - 22:28 | 4681520 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Why would anyone on the Hedge need this dumbed down pablum? What next, a cartoon presentation or an 0blam0 puppet twerking in front of Putin?

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 22:32 | 4681531 The man with po...
The man with pointy horns's picture

I'm gonna fucking barf.

DO NOT mention twerking and Obomba in the same sentence!

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 22:43 | 4681549 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

pre-1942 state of selfish indolence

< moar war

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 23:05 | 4681602 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

Useless talkings. It is never this deep,  Putin and Obama are just monsters of egotism battling out who has the bigger dick, or who will be the insertor versus the insertee.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 03:52 | 4681899 MeMadMax
MeMadMax's picture

I only got one question:

Who the fuck is gennady???

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 08:50 | 4682176 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Who is John Carter?

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 11:26 | 4682693 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

Who is John Galt?

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 12:06 | 4682843 Wizard of Ozman
Wizard of Ozman's picture

Carter is Dice, Dice is Carter. Sasha is Nuland, Nuland is Sasha. I think I am going to blow chunks. 6.06

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 05:23 | 4681930 basho
basho's picture

just roll over. that's it

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 23:23 | 4681618 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

Gennady- listen you fucking Mongol retard. GTFO (you and 150 million of retarded Mongols like you) to Asia where you belong. 

Btw -your ragtag conscript and poorly trained so called 'army' will be demolished in few hours. What will be left after you will be WW2 rusting hardware and plenty of stained underware.

Your S-300 and S-400 are absolute joke. Anyone with military experience will tell you it. This garbage looks good only on Youtube. The same goes for the rest of RuSSian hardware.

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 23:30 | 4681658 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

If they're so pathetic, maybe you'd like to volunteer to be the first to go and fight WWIII in "The" Ukraine!

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 23:45 | 4681679 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

Thank you for the suggestion. I hope someone will tell these fucking RuSSian idiots that there will be no second shot by them. I am not Ukrainian, by the way. To my best knowledge it is 'Ukraine' and not 'The Ukraine'. The times of soldiers storming the enemy are long gone. Still makes good movies though. 

Yes - they are pathetic. Every single hardware that they recently produced is garbage - will be taken out within first minutes of hostilities. Their electronics are generations behind NATO. It is the electronics that matters: guided rockets, radar jamming, destruction of telecommunications etc.  They are so behind in it, the war will be very short one. I hope for peace though. 

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 23:54 | 4681699 NickVegas
NickVegas's picture

We can win this thing, quick and on the cheap, why the fuck not, I'm all in.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 07:12 | 4681997 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

Great reuse of the Iraq arguement. If you hadn't forgotten the sarc tag you wouldn't have been down voted.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 09:25 | 4682301 Sanksion
Sanksion's picture

I saw the implied sarc. Arrogant Yankees will eat an EMP one morning.

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 23:57 | 4681709 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Great another fucking armchair general. How about you go spend some time wearing a uniform and getting dirty before you start sending people off to a war that they can't win, and for assholes that they don't care about. 

The US would not have a chance again the Ruskies on the ground. 

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 07:58 | 4682063 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

"Things looked great, and then they kicked my ass."

--a. hitler.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 08:38 | 4682139 Dugald
Dugald's picture

 

I wonder just which US government department spun that long winded waffle????

Guess the sheeple will eat it up......

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 12:34 | 4682695 mccvilb
mccvilb's picture

John Carter = Jay Carney?

White House Press Secretary Carney was Time's Moscow correspondent for three years.

Or is he this John Carter? Doubtful. The writer's a professional IMO.

(edited)

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 00:07 | 4681730 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

The US can't even win a war against fucking sand people in caves. And despite your best efforts, no amount of blustery, overcompensating, rah-rah, flag-waving bullshit can overcome that simple fact.

The Big Lie™ trick only works for getting into wars, dipshit — not winning them.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 00:16 | 4681741 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

I always hope and pray for peace. I am not advocating starting the war but if these fucking RuSSian idiots start it then they will be history. Not very kind history. I hate wars and I hope there will be no more wars and body bags.

You confuse winning the war vs. winning the peace.

The wars against the sand cavemen were won very quickly and efficiently: Iraq1,2 and Afghanistan. The mistake was to stay there and try to rebuild these caves. This is where US military lost and any military will lose. these fucking Pentagon idiot generals thought that if they give the cavemen Coca Cola all of sudden  they will love America. 

What they should've done - once they committed to it - was to bomb them into the Stone Age  and withdraw. Wash, rinse, repeat. If they stick their neck out again, we will bomb them again. 

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 03:15 | 4681881 ptolemy_newit
ptolemy_newit's picture

this is truly

 

 

Selective processing, evolution?

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 03:27 | 4681887 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

You could not be more wrong. Also if the war happens it will be thanks to over a decade of US provocation. 

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 05:21 | 4681929 basho
basho's picture

neo-con BS. get your head out of your ass before you try to talk. all that comes out is s*it

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 05:44 | 4681936 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

Wow, what an honor it is to have you grace us with your presence on this humble financial blog. 

Its not so often we have someone here, who not only knows more about Russian weapons systems than the Russians, but someone who knows more about American military capabilities than the Americans. 

Please do share your infinite wisdom.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 06:46 | 4681962 fx
fx's picture

To a man with only a hammer, every problem will look like a nail. You have obviously spent too much time with computer war-games. If the world's issues could be solved by bombing everything and everybody just away, you can be fucking sure, uncle sam would have done so long ago.

Bombing other countries into stone-age will accomplish exactly nothing , apart from alienating the people there for decades and centuries to come. Which in turn means that America becomes ever more like a fortress and a giant prison. But I guess, this doesn't bother you anyway, no?

 

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 11:18 | 4682657 Zerozen
Zerozen's picture

I always hope and pray for peace. I am not advocating starting the war but if these fucking RuSSian idiots start it

No, you sound like you're hoping and praying for an excuse to go to war. Something like a convenient false-flag or a provocation to force the other side to make a move.

I hope and pray for peace, my ass. Warmonger.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 05:20 | 4681928 basho
basho's picture

no boots on the ground ala iraq and afghan etc. LOL

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 13:30 | 4683231 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

As things stand you are probably correct on the hardware/electronics.  After widespread use of EMP devices, I'd rather have an AK than an M4.  Also, only the most antiquated electronics would work at that point.  It all depends on the shape of the ground you are fighting on.

When Russian doctrine calls for the use of tactical nukes does it state that they will be used in a direct or indirect way?  It matters a lot.

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 23:54 | 4681700 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

As any soldier that has spent any real time in boots knows, it's not the hardware but the boots on the ground that actually matter. Wars are only won with good hard men, and I hate to tell you most of those guys died in the 1940's. The US military is actually really tiny, as most of it is based around supporting the Special Operations forces. Even the frontline Infantrymen are worked almost directly for the SF dudes. 

 

On the ground in a straight up face first fight, the Ruskies will still wipe the floor with anyone. I think the next closest would be the Chinese. On the ground those armies are just that much better than the US Army that relies on technology to remove the human issue from the equation. 

The feds have to be partially insane if they think they have a chance against the Ruskies and Chinese. Especially on their own playing field. 

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 05:17 | 4681927 basho
basho's picture

if think you've had your final collapse.

change your name to fatal relapse.

LOL

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 09:25 | 4682285 flapdoodle
flapdoodle's picture

Nazi Germany had MUCH better "technology" than USSR in WWII, but anyone who believes that "technology" equates to better weapons systems is looking for an unpleasant surprise.

The goal needs to have "just enough technology" combined with simplicity, flexibility, robustness, affordability, and effectiveness - something the bloated MIC in the US has forgotten (F35? Stryker? Bradley?). Cleverness will defeat unlimited budgets *every time*.

Anyone who believes the Russian weaponery is "an absolute joke" is a moron.

They have a rich tradition of cheap, really effective and amazingly good weapons, from the T-34 to the MiG-15 to the AK-47.

I hope we never have to find out how good the Iskander, Kornet, S400, Schval and T90 are...

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 13:33 | 4683257 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

German tech was more advanced but not better.  Tanks that were too heavy to cross most bridges and required frequent repairs were not better.  On the otherhand, the reliable German kit just wasn't numerous enough to take on the Russians and the western allies - not enough guns, gas, or grunts.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 09:44 | 4682370 chapaev's ghost
chapaev&#039;s ghost's picture

Isn't this a quote?  By Napoleon, or was it Hitler?

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 22:44 | 4681536 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

I started reading it, and made it about a quarter way. What the fuck? This fool just wants WW3 to go down.

My version of the letter:

"Dearest Gennady,

Brevity is divine. Buy precious metals and start a garden.

Your bestest friend ever,
Sasha"

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 23:06 | 4681604 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

I started reading it, and made it about a quarter way. What the fuck? This fool just wants WW3 to go down.

Yep. This John Carter guy is suffering from a form of derangement which is far more prevalent than one would expect: he cannot conceptually discern between Russians and Soviets.

As a result, his perceptions are severely distorted. He cannot wrap his mind around the notion that, under the USSR, Russians were just as much a subjugated and oppressed group as any other. He apparently believes that the collapse of the USSR was just another commie plot to take over Europe by relinquishing control of eastern Europe. He may also believe that Leonid Brezhnev is still alive and calling the shots.

This form of derangement among the "leaders" of the US goes a long way toward explaining the self destructive behavior of the regime in Vichy DC over the last quarter century.

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 23:25 | 4681647 prains
prains's picture

.....yes, thinking inside a tank, the echo is mind numbing

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 02:18 | 4681854 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

More like Jonathan Carterstein.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 06:48 | 4681967 fx
fx's picture

Leonid Breshnev has died already? really?

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 13:37 | 4683280 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

How many Russians in the current government were NOT members of the communist party of the Soviet Union?  Next look at all the former Soviet republics and trace their political leadership back to the break up.  You will find that the communist party and KGB has supplied them all with something like 90% of their leadership since the break up.

Communism didn't die.  It just morphed into the mafia/politico entity that we see today. 

The king is dead, long live the king.  New boss same as the old boss. 

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 22:29 | 4681522 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Boring.......

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 22:33 | 4681532 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Gennady, Sasha

A very interesting point of view.  Two items:

1)  Yeah, I agree, Estonia goes, NATO goes (c'est la vie)

2)  But, think guys (oh, chess players), your real enemy will be China

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 22:33 | 4681533 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Go Sun Tsu. NATO will break itself.

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 22:35 | 4681538 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

What do you get when you put a bunch of cannibals in a room?

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 22:49 | 4681561 Crawdaddy
Crawdaddy's picture

A bunch of one-legged men in an ass kicking contest?

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 22:49 | 4681562 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

 Donner, party of ate?  

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 23:22 | 4681644 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

The Colonel rules!

KFC UPDATE!!!

Remember when Playboy magazine reportedly offered Sarah Palin $4,000,000 to pose nude in an upcoming issue?

Then Michelle Obama was offered $50 by National Geographic?

And when KFC offered a "Hillary" meal, consisting of two small breasts and two large thighs?

Now KFC is offering the "Obama Cabinet Bucket." It consists of nothing but left wings and chicken shit.

Right Wing humor emailed from mom and dad.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 00:13 | 4681744 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Why would anyone pay $50 to take pictures of a naked hairy wookie?

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 11:24 | 4682679 Zerozen
Zerozen's picture

Because it's National Geographic and they're into exotic wildlife.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 11:32 | 4682713 mccvilb
mccvilb's picture

The Onion strikes again.

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 23:32 | 4681662 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Great answers all. I was going for:

Cannibal's Thickened Caboodle Soup.

Good night everyone.

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 22:52 | 4681575 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

I get the feeling there are lots of people itching for a World War !

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 23:05 | 4681599 TungstenBars
TungstenBars's picture

While people around the world are waking up the what the USD is really worth,

John McCain and his neocon buddies and tools (Obama): "The US (read USD) remains #1 or everyone on the planet dies." 

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 23:52 | 4681694 NickVegas
NickVegas's picture

They want to orchestrate the pre-planned collapse so it looks a certain way. They really want you disarmed, like right now, so they can move forward, but they obviously have plans to deal with the populace, armed or disarmed, the easy way or the hard way. 

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 08:45 | 4682163 Dugald
Dugald's picture

 

They disarmed Australia......thin end of th wedge...

 

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 23:01 | 4681594 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

More or less rubbish.

Has anyone noticed Saudi Arabia has not stepped forward to say they can and will replace any reduction in oil output Russia may decree -- to save it for their Russia grandchildren, you see?

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 09:52 | 4682397 chapaev's ghost
chapaev&#039;s ghost's picture

Maybe because Saudi Araia is out of oil.

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 23:14 | 4681626 NOZZLE
NOZZLE's picture

Since Dot.Gov struck out on Putin, maybe DEATHBIATFFDAPOSTALEPA thugs can go shoot some farmers and ranchers to regain confidence and machismo. 

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 23:28 | 4681652 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

If not, they can always head down to Florida to build their thuggy reps by ganging up on retiree's and nursing home residents.

Nobody will fight back, just four legged hairy ankle biters.

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 23:16 | 4681630 kurt
kurt's picture

Novelist picking up scratch writing propaganda out of whole cloth. Ouch.

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 23:49 | 4681688 NickVegas
NickVegas's picture

Paid big mic agit-prop. Seems to be a regular theme on the hedge. Remember kids, to hide under your desk when the nukes start falling. That sneaky Putin is going to "embarrass and humiliate" the West, and all we have is a "weak" leadership to counter the master chess player. You,the citizen, can read between the lines, and understand the weakness in Washington is not a reflection on you. Putin is out of control, you understand that much from your debt slave position in society. Big-MIC will take care of this for you.

The Rothschild's want their payday, and I'm guessing they want Russia to be the fall guy. Debt and death, and from the destruction, a new world slave planet for all to enjoy.

 

Mon, 04/21/2014 - 23:51 | 4681693 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Listen up folks cuz I used to work for the Big .gov at one time. "After Syria disabledvet literally says "the President needs a win" and presto/poppo" (insert Ukraine et al in here.)

Disabletvet then gets furiously waterboarded because he starts backtracking on what appears at least to be HIGHLY provacative (pro avarice?) diplomacy and I'm starting to do the math and...well, I'm all for the diplomatic track too! (Did we have one of those in Iraq? I don't recall. I do recall the needle in the haystack part though.)

Still...I'm unclear what a "sanctions regime" has to do with "diplomacy." I understand "a price will be paid"...but indeed, hasn't it already? So what does "furthering the price" (and making it forward looking and acting ...if not downright acted upon) mean "diplomatically speaking" again?

In short "are we gonna freeze to death next winter too?"

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 00:04 | 4681729 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Listen to me now Boris.  "Yes Fearless Leader".  You will become a mole now. You and Natasha will go into hiding and become prominent Americans.  We will Americanize your name and Badenov will become Biden.  Your first name will be after your leader Josep.   So Boris Badenov, go out as Joe Biden and take care of America for us.

"Yes Fearless Leader. And I really get Natasha?"

 

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 00:10 | 4681738 sangell
sangell's picture

Our demgraphics are horrible. Muslims are everywhere. Even in Moscow. Our Slavic population is no larger than Japans yet we industrialy and technologically lag  behind them. We are Mexico with a nuclear arsenal. It took all of our conventional military power to subdue Chechnya. They United States is deploying battlefield laser on tank platforms that can shoot our artillary projectiles from the sky. Seaborne kinetic energy systems that can outrange our navy and both systens are far cheaper to operate than even basic artillary projectiles. We can't even be certain our strategic rocket forces will be effective in 10 years.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 01:12 | 4681806 Ms. Erable
Ms. Erable's picture

I'd be better informed about current Russian-EU-USSA-Ukrainistanian interactions had I read chicken entrails rather than this steaming pile of agitprop dung attempting to pass itself off as insightful analysis. Fucking pathetic.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 01:26 | 4681818 BOPOH
BOPOH's picture

USA is one big mental institution and all americans are happy to be locked in. Learn Russian my friends, learn Russian, it may help you guys to cure your mental defects.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 02:05 | 4681840 Gideonzsword
Gideonzsword's picture

This is absurd. Please explain to me how the United States presently even has the lift capacity to move assets into Eastern Europe required to fight Russia on its home turf? All that cool stuff we used to have in Germany? Yeah half of it retrograded to Colorado back in '05. They deployed from Germany to Iraq then to Collins. We're about as deep as a schwarma wrapper in Europe right now and the rest of NATO is a joke. Ask them where our big guns went? Yeah Arty batteries have been on a tear being converted into notional infantry for our assymetric wars of the last decade and a half. Boot Louie's wouldnt know which way to load a RAP round inside a Howitzer.

The US military has not been configured for conventional military operations since 2003. That's a decade ago, it's absurd to think we have the capability to suddenly hop in tanks and Stryker's and fight our way to Moscow by Christmas. Do you know what a DSHK does to a Stryker?

This goes beyond saying that the US military effectivley LOST Afghanistan. Yes they LOST in Afghanistan by leaving a viable enemy still on the field by the political withdrawal date; same calculus as Vietnam NOT the same calculus as Iraq through they are sadly still dealing with problems they will never pose a significant threat to the established government.

And what about the political fallout of fighting a conventional war IN Russia. First off the United States has the capacity to take about 5,000 or so combat deaths, after that John Q Public starts demanding we pull out. How long would it take us to lose 5,000 guys against Russia? I'll even give you Neocons a lifeline and say that we magically push deep inside Russian territory Road to Baghdad style in just under a month. What the FUCK happens when we get to Moscow, Volgograd, or St. Petersburg? This ain't Fallujah kids, let the story of the 6th Army be your guide. We will be frozen, encircled by massed counterattacks and within a month we will hit that 5,000 magic number and it'll be time to crawl to the UN asking for a peace deal and a way out of this mess.

The problem is Putin knows this. But he's smart enough to know War itself is the ultimate losing proposition in this game for ALL parties but that any war he is forced to fight will be defensive and portrayed by history as a response to foreign aggression but in the US it will very well be the catalyst that brings the house down, indeed dollar-haters have a strong arguement here beucase that war would mean the end of king dollar. Thus Putin's game is to extend his winnings while playing the PR role masterfully by distancing himself from pro-Russian protestors and giving the Ukraine (and other states in the same shoes by default) quite the noose to hang themselves with. Putin is sitting pretty in regards to relations with the ONLY STATE THAT MATTERS in Europe (well besides Greece) which is Germany.

The US is way out of its range and element in trying to force its way into an EU/Russia diplomatic impasse and needs to fall the fuck back. NO America, applying pressure right next to Russia's borders doesn't mean Putin will forget about you trying to arm the same Al-Qaida in Iraq and Syria dickheads that were killing your men not five years ago in Iraq. So please, somebody tell Obreezy to try again that Bear ain't budging.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 07:50 | 4682054 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Russia is like, 10-12 time zones.

No conventional army can defeat Russia.

The only chance would have been a dual-flank coordinated attack by NAZI Germany and Japan in WW2.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 02:49 | 4681863 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

 

The EU seemed to be teetering on the verge of dissolution? A relic of an American-backed project to create a United States of Europe specifically and deliberately to exclude Russia? With an intolerable German hegemony? How does this square off with "we can deal with the Poles - our single biggest problem…"?

methinks this article is full of Anglo-American wishful thinking

 

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 03:03 | 4681871 pcrs
pcrs's picture

Politicians don't strategize like that. First they are most concerned about their own tax cattle, not about foreigners. Foreign invaders are only used to scare the domestic tax cattle if they threaten to fall out of line.

They learned their game of domination in the early years of their lives through observation and it has become an instinct for them not a concious process. They learned how to manipulate people. The state is an instrument to exploit the subjects, war is only necessary to suppress rebelion.

A democracy is not fundamentally different from an olicharchy like was pointed out by the Princeton study.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 03:32 | 4681889 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Give every State in the United States control over nuclear weapons in their states and have all states seceed from the Federal Government.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 04:50 | 4681907 intric8
intric8's picture

I think this fictional piece illustrates a would-be effort at subterfuge, obfuscation and disimformation, directed at those who suspect the u.s. of engaging in underhanded machinations in ukraine (that'd be us, folks), and attempting to place suspicion on russia. The russians may be a wily, plotting type but they are not the pathological planners of world domination at all costs. That distinction is especially reserved for a breed of lowlives who should be readily recognized by now. They have been on a mission to eradicate all peace from the world from the turn of the 20th century, and we have seen the deliberately planned schemes of their leaders who know exactly what they are doing time and again. They are absolute masterminds. The problem is that just when we think we've seen all their tricks, here arises a brand new one that we never saw coming. If our country doesn't collectively wise up, we don't stand a chance.

The problem most of us who are even remotely out to discover truth in recent events face is the volume of information, time it takes to seperate truth from fact, intelligence to discern, and the agitation and exhaustion of dealing with it all. As a result, most americans would ultimately abandon any truth-seeking effort and become disinterested and/or apathetic about it all, which is exactly what the real grand-planners want. Perhaps we're already there, or perhaps many americans arent seeing because they arent even looking. Weep for your liberty and your future.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 05:08 | 4681925 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

Winter is coming, Russia merely has to wait, Ukrainians might have a change of heart as to who they want to rule them when they are hungry and freezing their balls off. When the realization that Europe will not be paying their gas bill sinks in, things might look very different.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 05:47 | 4681937 intric8
intric8's picture

being realistic, and judging from the past, if the nc warplanners backed by their chosen ear whisperers have determinedly set their sights on undermining the sovereignty of Russia, its only a matter of time. They are patient. They have virtually unlimited and varied resources - and infuriating as it is -a large source of those funds are coming from us! the american taxpayer. it breaks the heart. and the wallet.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 07:06 | 4681988 ebear
ebear's picture

"I think this fictional piece illustrates a would-be effort at subterfuge, obfuscation and disimformation..."

Either that, or a serious lack of imagination.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 09:41 | 4682359 messystateofaffairs
messystateofaffairs's picture

Finding truth in the chaos is a real bitch. Its like trying to put together a ten million piece jigsaw puzzle, without the box cover picture, while various agents are tampering with the pieces. I don't know whether Putins long term plans are to replace our fascism with his fascism but I support his efforts at this time because he is a pain in the ass to our fascists who are trying to fuck up the whole world. That will have to do for the time being.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 05:07 | 4681926 basho
basho's picture

moronic at best.

zh running out of items to post?

john carter head up his ass extremely far.

another f*cking war monger.

this site is getting to be neo-conned.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 07:15 | 4682001 ebear
ebear's picture

"zh running out of items to post?"

In the print world you had to get past an editor and a publisher, who most of the time had an interest in quality, at least to the degree that it sells.

In the electronic world you have an endless array of websites begging for free content, and an equally endless supply of third rate hacks trying to make it as "writers" or worse, "political commentators."

Basic economics really.  The more you have of something, the less it's worth.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 07:11 | 4681995 Debugas
Debugas's picture

this fairytale was written to scare europeans out of cooperatation with Russia

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 07:19 | 4682008 smacker
smacker's picture

The author's view of Russian strategic objectives are highly suspect. The rest is plain speculation which always has some nuggets of truth woven into it.

One scenario he did not cover is whether Brussels and Berlin have a secret EU plan to step back slightly from the USG and manipulate a closer relationship with Russia. I have long believed that Russian membership of the EU is one of the unwritten aims in some of Europe's major capitals. Merkel speaks fluent Russian and both she and Barroso are essentially old communists who've now migrated to fascism.

If this happened, the British Labour Party would welcome it as their leadership is stuffed full of Marxists, fascists and old commies. Not sure where it would leave the Conservative Party. Running the "Royal Bread & Circus" roadshow I guess.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 11:46 | 4682753 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

smacker, I'm astonished. a very intelligent comment, and I could not disagree more with you

"whether Brussels and Berlin have a secret EU plan to step back slightly from the USG and manipulate a closer relationship with Russia"

first, a secret EU plan? the EU still boasts among it's members the dear old United Kingdom, which in turn spies on everything that happens in every official capital of continental europe, and Brussels too. Remember the question if Chancellor of Germany is allowed to have her private phone tapped or not? Realize that there is Five Eyes spying on every trade pre-meeting in Brussels, on every commission, on every policy agreement

second, it has been the intention of nearly every continental european head of government, Chancellor Schröder and PM Berlusconi to the fore, for nearly freaking 15 years to shape a policy - both NATO and EU - that would accomodate for Russian sensibilities. Cooperation instead of Confrontation. But no, it seems it can't be, thanks to the USUK, with Blighty forever bent into continental disintegration

third, what would really happen if Moscow would join our clubs? or find a common, peaceful ground with us? except that your worldviews would shatter, I guess?

fourth, the next bright continental idea on how to cope with Russia is Polish. Donald Tusk, the PM, has plans for a common EU policy on gas imports, similar to what we do for uranium and on the same set of policies that lead to the common market for steel and coal, long time ago. watch how Washington will react, as soon as this materializes

I'll save the link to your comment under Smackerclassic British Imperialist comment

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 14:51 | 4683661 smacker
smacker's picture

Ghordius, it's not at all clear to me what you disagree with in my comment, especially after describing it as "very intelligent". Do you not like intelligent comments??

 

And my comment was most certainly not intended to be "classic British Imperialist", simply an attempt to make sense of what's going on in the EU.

Apart from the fact that I totally dislike and disgaree with the fundamental aims of the EU, whether Russia were to become a member is of no import to me.

I also infer from your comments that you think the UK has a policy of trying to destroy the EU for its own benefit. Can't say. What I can say is that the Labour Party is "into the EU big time" but dances on pinheads in public.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 02:56 | 4685658 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I love intelligent comments, and I like surprises. And yes, my "classic British Imperialist" is a bit tongue-in-cheek

what are the fundamental aims of the EU? the four freedoms. free movement of labour, capital, goods and services. in a common, properly regulated market

sure, our socialist and other federalists like to aim for a superstate, eventually, in the future. yet the above is the continental consensus

and it's simply not what conservative and liberal Britons wish for. they would generally prefer to go back in time into an imperial past or a fully globalized economy, or both

conservative Britons have a problem with treating continental conservatives as peers. and liberal Britons have a problem with regulations of the common market

if we ever find a mutually satisfactory deal with Russia is of import. a deal would threathen the basis of the whole current security architecture of the USUK hegemony, in the same way as a regulated continental financial market would threaten the current dominance of the City of London on continental financial markets

so there is no British consensus on the EU. or, more properly, there is no Southern English consensus, then the North and Scotland "get it", and are for it

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 09:18 | 4682264 Fast Twitch
Fast Twitch's picture

Someones creative writing digest. Ask yourself why would this letter be made public and find traction on ZH. Has this blog become a strategic war planning command centre or just regular plebs who've had enough of the bullshit edict'd on them by TPTB?

Good one, John Carter

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 10:07 | 4682428 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

Invading occupation forces always end up defeated leaving with their tail between the legs.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 10:35 | 4682527 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

This article was written by PINKY AND THE BRAIN.  Gennady is Pinky. 

BRAIN clearly has no understanding of the Broken Window Fallacy, wholly discounts the quality of European military hardware (which is excellent), as well as the rapidity through which a more serious military culture could develop in Europe's armed forces.  After WWI that militant culture took, what, maybe five years to develop?

Where is the historical evidence that either France or Germany - who have both invaded Russia before with a ferocity unmatched in their engagements with each other - will be content to let Russia lead?

The EU really, really, wants a casus belli to weld the States of Europe into a homogenous whole.  Clearly the author of the letter discounts that as a possible outcome of Ukraine.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 12:27 | 4682934 Chaos_Theory
Chaos_Theory's picture

Interesting concept(s).  Would it be fair to suggest there is a difference between popular opinion and the desire of the politicians in this example?  I doubt the populace of Europe is as ready for a casus belli as the EU (politicians, bureaucrats) are.  Same for the U.S. for that matter.

Tue, 04/22/2014 - 12:21 | 4682912 Chaos_Theory
Chaos_Theory's picture

So does anyone really doubt some of the big picture items here?

That the Russian Grand Strategy entails NATO breaking apart and having more influence in Europe

They will push just hard enough to gain leverage in negotiations while avoiding war

That Europe lacks the will to resort to a military conflict over the former Warsaw Pact nations

That the edifices of the global economy are ready for the mother of all busts due to (primarily) the monetary policies of the Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, et all?

That the Russians (hell, all the BRICS) want to end the current global economic order based on the U.S. dollar

That the American population want nothing to do with another war, regardless of the desires of the administration or the even more hawkish Republicans like McCain or Ms. Graham (or the MIC, shadow gov, etc.)

I get that this article is grossly 1-sided and avoids a deep look at the provocations of Grand Strategy by the Europeans and U.S. in Ukraine (and Georgia in 2008, the Baltic nations, Poland, Bulgaria and Romania in the 1990s), but it's kind of hard to absolutely disagree with the strategic choices Russia can (or may want to) make if the above statements are even remotely true.  Hell, even the sentence about the Poles being the Russian's single biggest problem at least is based on history, albeit the history of the 1600s-1800s. 

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 22:33 | 4730695 garfieldbashamy
garfieldbashamy's picture

because our opponents are desperate for peace

This could be true, if it weren't for one thing: the facts!
Peace in Syria? Peace in Libya? Peace in Iraq? Peace in Afghanistan?

I could go on, but I'm sure the intelligent reader gets the idea. The US adminstration puppets create war at the behest of their banking families who need war to keep our debt currency charade going a little longer. If we don't spend mindlessly, then servicing the existing debt's interest, even at these rates, becomes impossible, and the whole ponzi scheme collapses sooner.

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