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Why Putin Is Smiling At The Bond Market's Blockade Of Russia
One of the recurring themes the western media regurgitates at every opportunity is that while the western "diplomatic" sanctions against Russia are clearly a joke, one thing that will severely cripple the economy is the capital market embargo that has struck Russian companies, which are facing $115 billion of debt due over the next 12 months.
Recall that not a single Russian Eurobond issue has successfully priced since Russia's peaceful annexation of Crimea. Surely there is no way Russia can afford to let its major corporations - the nexus of its petroleum trade - go insolvent, which is why Putin will have to restrain himself and beg western investors to come back and chase appetiziing Russian yields (with other people's money of course). Turns out this line of thought is completely wrong.
Russian companies, facing $115 billion of debt due over the next 12 months, will have the funds even as bond markets shut because of the Ukraine crisis, according to Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings.
Firms will have about $100 billion in cash and earnings at their disposal during the next 18 months, Moody’s said in an analysis of 47 businesses April 11. Almost all 55 companies examined by Fitch are “well placed” to withstand a closed refinancing market for the rest of 2014, it said in a note on April 16. Banks have more than $20 billion in foreign currency to lend as the tensions prompted customers to convert their ruble savings, ZAO Raiffeisenbank said.
“The amount of cash on balances of Russian companies, committed credit lines from banks and the operating cash flows they will get is sufficient for the companies to comfortably service their liabilities,” Denis Perevezentsev, an analyst at Moody’s in Moscow, said by phone on April 17.
So, Russia can comfortably extend its Ukraine campaign well into 2015? Truly great news for Kiev, which is already bankrupt, and which is scrambling to get every last bcf of gas it can get its hands on before Gazprom finally pulls the plug in under a month.
Ah, the miracles of positive cash flow... and how quickly it eliminates any so-called political leverage the bearer of the world's reserve currency thought it may have had, leading ultimately to this.
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That's easy, "counterparty risk"...
and plenty of cash (after selling western government bonds and currency)
Hey 'merica, get your MyIRA, trust us, these bonds are safe.
What currency is this debt denominated in? And the cash?
indeed, what is the "value" of something that nodbody wants?
The western banksters are compelling Putin to move away from the Fed Reserve dollar system, seemingly promoting their own demise. I believe they are deliberately commiting slow suicide to hang failure of their global dollar ponzi scheme around Russia's neck.
Then they can bring in their NWO, aka Feudalism 2.0
The banksters will beg them to continue the debt money charade, once the Russkies begin to issue debt free money, the way Lincoln did with the original greenbacks.
"If that mischievous financial policy,which had its origin in the North American Republic, should become indurated down to afixture, then that Government will furnish its own money without cost. It will pay off debts and be without a debt. It will have all the money necessary to carry on its commerce. It will become prosperous beyond precedent in the history of the civilized governments of the world."
http://www.michaeljournal.org/plenty49.htm
What a bunch of nonsense, Putin is fucked..
Even a "mild version" of sanctions from the US and European Union would likely cut Russia's economic growth from a projected 2.5% this year to "less than 1% and maybe zero," the ex-minister told a business conference in his home city of St. Petersburg.
Read more: http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/global-markets/articles/crimea-Russia-Economic-Savior-Counts-the/3/17/2014/id/54211#ixzz2zYlVdbA4
Will Putin let these co.s go broke or just sell treasuries to buy the debt ...
Please just sell the Ts Vlad
Jesus...
Who the fuck is Counselor to the Western Powers?
Vlad?
The Anti-Christ?
Idiots?
Masochiosts?
The guy holds all the cards.
While I'm not in any way rooting for him (be like supporting a Democrat like Harry Reid for all the difference it makes) he does hold all the cards and have one massive set of kay-joneies
Default and the banks default with you.
West forces you to default and it's western banks defaulted upon.
Got gold to buy energy?
the hidden hand plays the long game... most don't understand the rules, or more importantly, the objective. but then again, the people who think they are playing with or for the hidden hand are arguably the biggest fools of all...
i think ozzie layed it out best:
... satan laughing spreads his wings...
Putin plays chess and is stalking the West's queen. Obama plays golf and...well, that's about it.
Carl Icahn just tweeted that he wants a seat on the State Department's Board of Directors
Russia is silly, if you're a Russian, living outside of Moscow, you need visa approval to get in the city for period longer than few weeks. That's fascist par excellence.
Should be implemented the other way round in Detroit.
"What a bunch of nonsense, Putin is fucked.. "
Because we all know Russians are incapable of enduring short-term hardship..
AMIRITE!?
"The west's queen"
That would be Obama.
Obama plays golf and sucks cock.
i'm rootin' for putin.
Actually, it was Terry "Geezer" Butler who wrote that.
Ozzie sang it well though!
Vlad the Wimpaler.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAaWvVFERVA
Let's see ... High stakes finance and we got a billionaire businessman versus a community organizer. This is going to be a slaughter.
Energy is the ultimate currency.
Russia seems to have plenty.
US, not so much.
Really?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2012/03/29/u-s-might-have-more-...
Forbes? Seriously? And speculative bullshit to boot. Jeebus.
He just discovered ZH heh
Hardly, but I do work in O&G. Another case of shoot first when you see the source. Anyone can google the topic and find another source, except the 25 idiots that down voted the post... Sometimes ZH members are a little too vested in their hated of the system to understand reality when it slaps them in the face...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_orders,_decorations,_and_medals_of_...
Ras-putin. the boy is not independent. With cooling waters way out of control, Folks wont prep.
More cannon fodder... Do a fact check before you throw Briar Rabbit in the briar patch...
Suck my dick. That "article" was filler at best. I read deeper stuff in Readers Digest as a kid.
logicalman
But... http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2013/11/congratulations-america-youre-almost-energy-independent-now-what-98985.html
The US actually has plenty if they would just tell the EPA to go kick rocks. Not buying a 4k lb POS SUV would help as well, but you know how them idiots are. They have to look like bad asses at every waking seocnd.
and in their dreams.
and the usa is the #2 energy producer by some distance
http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&hl=en&hl=en_U...
Ask a banker what is more important, food or money, and of course the response is "money". I prefer food and since Russia has a sizeable trade surplus "money" is subordinated as an immediate issue.
That ex-minister is the only reason Russia is in the black. I'd say his opinion counts.
The ruble is sliding. Capital is leaving the country at an increasing rate, they're slowly getting blocked out of international trade. And they will build a new reserve currency? With who? The great Iran/China/Inda axis of 3rd world backwardness? China is imploding, Iran is a fucking caliphate and most Indians still shit out in the open. Some currency that will be, sure people everywhere will be flocking to invest. I understand not liking the president but going full commie retard is not the answer.
What you think the Western financial system and economies are any better. Tell that to the mass of unemployed in the EU. Let me tell you what matters. A GALLON of gasoline that gets you to work, that runs that tractor to get you food out of the ground, that makes plastics to package your food, that brings that food to you so you dont have to wonder aimlessly looking for food in the hot sun or winter snow, and ultimately that gallon of gas that powers the tank or jet that is protecting your FOOD an OIL. Eat your freakin paper shit dollars and use them to stay warm suckers.
Let me tell you what matters. blah blah blah
Nope. What matters is dollars and the giant military behind them.
That military is worn out, tired, pissed off and in no mood to go fight another war for a bunch of Wall Street fucktards.
To BKbroiler:
You are completely retarded. Enough said. Your nonsensical, completely ignorant comments aren't even worthy of a comment. I just wanted to give you feedback so next time you think you have something to offer you'll shut the fuck up.
A little too close to home dryam? Didn't meant to insult the fam with the whole shitting in the open thing. Don't worry, form now on I'll only post pro-putin homoerotic fantasies you girls can jerk off to. Now go get me a squishee.
How's it feel being a federal employee spreading propaganda, disrupting sites like ZH, and creating misinformation?
I have to hand it to you, you suckered me in and now bantering with you misdirects others from having real conversation about the truth.
Right, for the last 4 years I've been on here spreading government gospel, you got me figured.
The truth is Russia has nothing. Painted rust. You think in 20 years they even came close to building something that can rival the US military and economy? Has everyone on this site lost their mind?
Odd, you just started posting your stupid shit over the past couple of weeks.
It's also odd when someone thinks everyone on a certain website has lost their minds and they continue to post on that website. Moreover, they give no substantial facts that backup their rhetoric. You sound like MSNBC.
yes, for years I've been waiting for a US-Russia dispute to come along so I could spring into action for uncle sam on ZH. it's so fucking stupid it's brilliant.
I need to prove to you nutjobs that the US military and economy are bigger than Russia's? Let me crack open my copy of OBVIOUS SHIT EVERYONE KNOWS and see what it says.
Run back to CNN, Fox and your .gov handlers. Tell them no-one here is buying the crap they (you) are selling.
In case you really are a paid troll, and not just a completely brainwashed fucktard, please note that you are on the wrong side of history. History has some prevalent characteristics; one of which is that traitors to the people usually end up hung.
Do you people actually believe that the US would lose in a fight with Russia? First of all, it would never happen, because the United States wouldn't be so eager to give hegemony to China, who would be pleased to step in afterwards as numero uno. The United States will do everything in their power to make it difficult for Russia to amass power and influence without provoking war. Russia wants to avoid conflict with US, and vice versa. It does them absolutely no benefit, as it would decrease their standing relative to their competition. For as long as possible, the US will maintain general stability (avoid all out war) until they have reached critical mass, and then the world is theirs. The US has the most advanced military in the world (goes without saying), and anything you hear to the contrary is US propoganda to incite fear in the population to justify more military spending. The Chinese have 1 piece of shit aircraft carrier, so their ability to project power is extremely limited. Russia has an aging Navy, decent tanks, lots of nukes, but the truth is that sky control and power projection through navy is what matters most in a world where WW3 will likely never happen.
The US could never win a war against Russia or China. It could never invade either of those countries and survive. As for aircraft carriers..those are comical relics in the 21st century. If there is ever a world war you can bet those on an american aircraft carrier will be the first to be vapourized. It's a rocket world now, and Russia is still #1.
Anyways, what is important is who has the resources for a war. I believe this has been discussed already before. The US is runnign on debt and has no capabilities outside of the continental US. If anything happens all we will see is the instant death of 10's of thousands of US troops stationed in Asia and Europe, coinciding with a dollar drop leaving the US in a depression the likes of which we have never seen on earth. When the dust settles the US will be lucky to maintain lead influence in N America..
That's why we need to invade canada -Immediately! They have resources. I believe we can kick their ass.
This incoherent rambling on here boggles my mind. If things get to the point that US tactical carrier groups are 'vaporized' or nuked by Russia, it won't remotely matter who is left standing when the dust settles because we will likely have thermonuclear war and some sort of nculear winter after that. If enough nukes are exchanged, it would be an extinction event and odds are humanity would be wiped out.
Tactical nuclear war won't go full thermonuclear against cities. Just like all conflict it is an escalation. US carrier groups in foreign seas threatening Russia or China are assumed to be tactical nuke targets. Most bets are the Pentagon not only has contingency plans for losing entire strike groups but expects it to happen (so don't let your kids get sent off to their deaths).
Losing a strike group will not result in attacking Russian cities with nukes. Unless of course Washington has gone completely off the handle. The former event would still be in the tactical nukes against military targets stage, which need not escalate to attacking cities if the US would back off from aggression in that example. It's meant to deter aggression.
I can't believe that a number of other idiots agreed with you.
Do you have any idea how difficult it is to target a tactical carrier group in a large open space with a tactical nuke? You can't do with any time of ICBM and it would require a torpedo-laden with a nuclear warhead or missile if the carrier group is close to shore.
Yes using a tactical nuke to destroy a US carrier group would be an unprecedented escalation and the odds that a conflict would become a thermonuclear war that would escalate easily and dramatically are quite low. You don't use a tactical nuclear warhead to 'deter aggression.'
It's a rocket world now, and Russia is still #1.
still? Just when was it they achieved it in the first place? Was that before or after they pioneered the submarine screen door.
I'm assuming you are unaware that russian rockets are, and have always been better..
Why do you think we spy on their rocket tech, cry when they threaten to sell their rockets to Iran, or heck even ask them to send us to space? Russian military spending may be a fraction of the US, but the US spends it on garbage like the Craptor or better yet invasions of sand people. Russians spend their dough on one thing: rockets.
Uf those rockets come flying america is toast..er glass.
You are retarded.
The question that you want to ask is - Would US win a fight against Russia, on Russia's border?
I will save you the trouble. The answer is "no". Even with all of NATO coming in.
Hope it helps.
we will fight to secure that border however.
setting up roadblocks is a drone strike waiting to happen.
Get educated - clearly you do not know much http://thecommonsenseshow.com/2014/03/30/putin-is-militarily-encircling-...
You do realize you're holding up broke ass, collapsing third world shit holes makng mostly meaningless alliances with Russia as some existential threat, right? Venezuela cant even make a fucking roll of toilet paper and that silly *ahem* twit in Argentina is currently trying really hard to not get lynched by her own people.
I think he's suggesting your account is compromised. It does happen and a certain agency somewhere in the world has the resources. I wouldn't be surprised if secret programs exist which acquire the accounts of deceased individuals.
I'm not sure, but I guess you must have grown up during the Cold War when the USSR was more evil than Satan himself. You long for the days when the USA was perceived to have the moral high ground and disregard all evidence amassed which runs contrary to your fragile team spirit... or you could just be paid dis-info from Spookville, VA.
Don't you long for the days when the US was the good guy? Granted neither of us were alive but still, don't you?
1. We don't produce shit, therefore our "economy" is smoke and mirrors
2. There hasn't been a conflict between great powers since the advent of nuclear weapons. Conventional military size means exactly shit in this MAD world.
3. You have an argument at least, but why the hostility and childish stereotypes?
It should be noted that as a user's posts get moved to the archive servers, they no longer show up in the posting history.
I have plenty of three-year old posts that no longer display when a post search is performed on my user name.
Moreover, they give no substantial facts that backup their rhetoric
He may not be 100% correct, but where are your facts? So far all you've done is queef.
It's weird, isn't it? All these new trolls have 4 year old accounts that only recently started posting...
You said it BK. Can the US military do anything about some dirt poor barely armed Jihadists in Afghanistan? It looks like we can't. Could we do anything about Russia? Best not try it. Whatever you're broiling I'm not buying it.
Because carpet bombing Afghanistan would be bad for PR. The US hasn't fully flexed it's abilities since WW2.
Vietnam was both carpet-bombed and poisoned (Agent Orange - still producing birth defects three generations later) and the US still got its ass handed to it by a low-tech enemy. A standing military is very efficient for defense, it sucks as an offensive force over the long term. America losing so many wars against under-armed militaries defending their own sovereign nations is what is bad for PR.
This is pure ignorance and not accurate in the least. N. Vietnam was not carpet-bombed anywhere near the intensity or scrutiny to what inflicted on Japan and it was only for short operations during Operation Rolling Thunder and Operation Linebacker 1 and 2. Both Johnson and Nixon placed strict limits on the numbers of targers and types of targets for fear of drawing China directly into the conflict.
US easily had the capacity to destroy the dams in N. Vietnam and food the ride paddies during harvest season which would have resulted in mass starvation in the North. McNamara and his number crunchers ran the numbers and knew it the only way where the US could deprive the N. Vietnamese of manpower on a large-enough scale. Otherwise the N. Vietnamese would continue to throw yet another generation into the meat grinder until they achieved their goal of unification of Vietname under Hanoi-based rule.
It was just completely morally and ethnically unacceptable from a global perspective to enact such a policy and thankfully so. It would have resulted in human genocide that we have really seen. Estimates I have read said that 1M+ in N. Vietnam would have parished within a year due to starvation and issues related to severe malnourishment. That would require total unconditional war which hasn't been waged by industrialized countries since WW2.
well thank god SOMEONE paid attention in history class. In all out war we win. We have the world tapped, we know which slut Putin is banging on which day and where he hides his dough. We have the nukes, the nuke neutralizers, the nuke maps and the faster missiles for delivery. We have the hearts/minds conversion propaganda systems, HAARP, Full Spectrum Dominance, DARPA, so on and so forth. If shit breaks out it's no contest.
America. FUCK YEAH
it's just that "we" choose not to win in every serious encounter (korea, cuba, vietnam, laos, cambodia, iran, lebanon, kuwait, afghanistan, iraq, georgia, and now, ukraine) since ww2. but we could've won, if we'd tried.
You lumped a number of countries that had nothing to do with one another and blurring military-victory from other desired policy goals including nation-building.
In a bunch of these countries you listed, US military forces weren't directly engaged (Cuba, Georgia).
Broiler both you and Bizarro are way off base. Please explain to me on what planet does the United States have the military capacity to defeat a professional Russian Army on its home turf? Please, consider the story of the 6th Army as a cautionary tale (If you even know what that is). At which point does Russian superiority in Russian missles and sheer number of Armor they can bring to the fight not factor in to the equastion? At which point does Russia's ongoing development of fourth Gen fighters than can outclass many of our hybrid fighter bombers not factor into the equation? At which point does the fact that we would NOT be able to bring ANY of our carrier based Air assets to bear against Russia become a part of the equation?
Oh we'll use Nukes? Cute we blow up all five of their cities? They take out San Francisco, Seattle, Chicago or DC. Guess what asshole no more America. Fuck Yeah because the Pax Americana collapses, the system holding the country together is tenous at best- it doesnt come back from a NUCLEAR FUCKING WAR.
So please temper your rah-rah bullshit with a dose of reality and instead think of a more informed consensus of how the US can come out on top of this shitstorm without looking douhcey or weak.
"morally and ethnically unacceptable"
There was nothing moral or ethical about the US even being in Vietnam.
Carpet bombing is like pregnancy, there is no middle ground. To claim it was moral and ethical because it did not rise to the level of destruction visited upon Japan is the worse propaganda. The phrase "We are going to bomb them back to the stone age." was first heard during Vietnam (ironic since, at the time, much of Vietnamese society lived close to what we consider the Stone Age)
And where were the great American morals and ethics when the US decided to spray the jungles (and millions of innocent people) with Agent Orange - a gift that continues to give even to this day?
And what about the Daisy Cutter, Pineapple, napalm, and Cluster bombs used indiscriminately against villages and population centers?
Not to mention the millions of tons of bombs dropped in Laos, a country with which America claimed it was not at war.
To justify the use of any one of these weapons against the Vietnamese people, you would have to justify the war itself. History shows that there was no justification for it. It was begun by lies, intensified by lies, and ended in embarrassing defeat for the US.
There are always lines of ethnics/morality in war.T
The US committed a huge amount of civilian atrocities in the Vietnam War but so did the Vietcong/N. Vietnamese army. US certainly was a moral actor though in Vietnam though and frankly was fortunate it never had to face an external body/organization for inquiries regarding civilian-based atrocities. A lot of US politicians and army officials would have faced war crimes.
'We are going to bomb them back to the Stone Age' was used during WW2 during the fire-bombing raids over Japan BTY.
Although Curtis LeMay was the man who directed the fire-bombing of Japanese urban civilian populations during WWII, it wasn't until the Vietnam War that he expressed his lust for wide-spread death from 20,000 feet with his quote. It is probably an easy mistake to assume he said it about the Japanese bombings.
Perhaps LeMay is your example of American morality? What a man, huh?
In the old days, everyone received their news and instructions from the same source as their neighbor, so it was much easier to be talking the same shit down at the plant, and getting all "flagged up" over world events.
Today, you cannot even talk about the weather (global warming/cooling) without pissing someone off, or offending another, much less any deeper beliefs...
The point is, you could justify a carpet bomb campaign to eliminate the "like" thinkers much more easily 40 years ago than you can today. I'm mostly german, with some polish and russian, married to irish and dutch plus some italian, living next to amir and nedga... How does bombing ever work again?
It doesn't...
"John Fitzgerald Kennedy declares Religious War on all of East Asia."
ooops.
Still is actually.
I say "forget securing the Border...let's go full on 1846-1848" while borders are being rearranged. I kinda like the Poopie Pants approach.
usa bombed/napalmed all kinds of installations and cities in n. korea.
usa dropped more explosives over se asia than all of ww2 combined. maybe vietnam didn't take the brunt, but ne cambodia, and laos sure got bombed.
How many tons dropped on Germany? How many tons dropped on Japan? How many tons dropped on VN?
How many Viets were killed in the war?
The actual numbers might surprise you.
More bombs have been thrown on Vietnam than the total used in ww2 and the US still lost that war. Militairy industrial complex made bank though.
There's really nothing else to say.
You sir, are a fucking moron.
And it can't any more, both because it's bad PR, and because it costs too much money. The world runs differently today, and dumb Americans like you will find that out one way or the other.
At least we have our space station. FU Putin! Wait... never mind.
No, the US has spent the last twenty years unbuilding it's economy and military. The end result will be the same.
"You think in 20 years they even came close to building something that can rival the US military and economy?"
They don't have to. They are on their own turf with a population far more accustomed to hardship than anything you'll find in America. All they have to do is hunker down while the West falls apart from it's own hubris and imperial overreach.
What's clear at this point is that many nations can see the advantage of a multi-polar world. It's one of those situations where nobody wants to make the first move, but now that someone has (or has had it forced on them) the rest will gradually fall into line.
That, to me, is the main significance of these events. Whether by design or accident, we are moving to a multi-polar world with no one nation at the helm. How that works is anyone's guess, but it sure looks like we'll find out.
"The truth is Russia has nothing. Painted rust."
speaking of rust...
http://tinyurl.com/6myvve9
He's not an employee. Probably a contractor. The Feds outsource everything now...especially propaganda.
how would that be propaganda then?
i mean "business propaganda" sounds nice...how do i manipulate the balance sheet recession again? I mean lets' face it "low interest rates forever are God."
everything else is "TO BE financed."
there is no money...only inflation..this is true both in Russia and the USA. My problem with Russia comes with the lack of liquidity in their market...not their view of a debt bubble that burst over a year ago. that says to me you can start "swing trading" Russian equities here...and that doesn't strike me as ruble positive.
Already Putin is signing contracts with Western Oil Majors. That's after these same folks left 50 billion on the table of Kazhakstan with nothing to show for it.
Not a day goes by where this does not look like "the next war." And of course "what could go wrong with invading Russia"?
A real conversation about the WHAT? DryHam, you have no idea where you are...this is ZeroHedge. Where the news is early and the conversation entertaining (assuming you like this sort of thing...)
An army of micro chips..
one hard EMP
and it's back to styx and stones....
The US military is hardly giant, it's actually one of the smallest militaries in the world.
i agree with this. i don't know why this gets so many down arrows.
what's lacking of course is "i just blew 3 billion on a ship that sinks."
3 billion? wow. dropped that program awful quick.
ain't no one gonna be buying that F-35 either. that things a 100 million dollar Ostrich.
That most assuredly remains to be seen. Sequential administrations of both livery have done just about everything they can to run the military into the ground, including blank checks the MIC douches have squandered for pet projects of useless cold war dick wagging. Add to that the far too many lives lost or ruined in wars of empire defending some of the most egregious behavior since, well, Lincoln.
"What matters is dollars and the giant military behind them."
Thank the heavens that the Fed has seen fit to print so many of your virtual dollars each month!! Each one is like a precious little digital snowflake.
/s
Oil is what moves everything. The mighty US war machine is worth right about nothing without huge gobs of oil moving it.
That is such an understatment. WHen I was wearing the uniform we would have our trucks idling all damn night just to have lights. We'd have to fuel them up at least 3 times a day when on patrols as well.
That's funny. When I wore the uniform, we just plugged the lights into a generator and went a week without refueling - depending on movements.
And they say jarheads are stupid.. LOL.
Did you type that comment in a time machine from 1995?
Yes. Everybody knows the giant U.S. military machine no longer needs freaking gas to run! /sarc
You've set the bar pretty high for dumbest post on ZH
Giant military. Nothing more fragile. Just words... and hatress all over the world.
BKBroiler,
Valid concerns and priceless allegories.
Facts would be amusing
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp
http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/world_debt/world_debt.html
Public Debt to GDP is indication of debt capacity forward coupled with resource based revenue stream - can be Present Valued - all of which could be used to lend to Private corps as Federal Reserve has done massively for example to GM - would China take that bet?
i think you have it backwards
Debt to GDP USA 100%+ versus Russia at 8%
probable reserves - $100 Trillion plus!
what does that mean in the short term / long term to you ?
Now you've spoiled the pot with the facts... What are the rabid ZH faithful to do?
"That ex-minister is the only reason Russia is in the black. I'd say his opinion counts."
The highest economic indicators were in China. But Washington has called Russian Minister mr. Kudrin as the best Finance Minister in the world.
Kudrin - this is the worst finance minister in the history of Russia. He is an enemy and a traitor. He is "the best" only the U.S. version, because he worked in the U.S. interest.
While what you say about the ruble and the 2nd rate powers are true, you forgot to mention what Putin has STATED is a better alternative: A multipolar world, a reserve currency based on a basket of major currencies and NO GLOBAL DOMINATION.
The Russian people can withstand a recession that would make WalMart Amerika curl up and die on their couches. Have to send the TSA around in gas masks to turn off the TV's.
Putin isn't as "fucked" as we are, as our growth is about -0.8% (that a negative). As you may be able to figure out, that's less than "less than 1% and maybe zero".
"U.S. nominal GDP change in last reported quarter was 1.01%. Annualized that's 4.1% GDP growth. Being conservative, price inflation is about 5%/yr (M2 has increased by a little over 6% over the last 12 months), so being generous our economy is contracting by about 0.8% / yr."
Not everyone seems to be able to do math.
Here's the formula in case anyone wants to try different inflation rates or quarterly GDP growth. The reason I used quarterly GDP is I wasn't sure if the recent GDP changes they made were retroactive.
100 * (1.01044/1.05 - 1) = -0.72%.
If you use John Williams' Shadow Stats, 1980 based CPI inflation is closer to 10%, although that seems a little high.
(edited to change 1.01% quarterly growth to 1.04%)
Actually 10% seems low to me. The price of fuel has gone up a dollar a year for the past two years now.
Too busy doing the meth.
The first quarter GDP rise is basically an annualized figure which is 1.01%. If we have 1.01% growth every quarter the year will also come in at 1.01%. Meaning that the nomy contraction is higher than you state. But don't worry, analysts are looking or 10% or so growth from the S&P 500 this year.
I took the numbers directly from FRED (last 2 available). I didn't use annualized figures from a press release. Thanks for the comment though, I actually did get the % wrong, it's 1.04% growth.
.
2013 Q4: 17,089.6
2013 Q3: 16,912.9
17089.6/16912.9 = 1.0104
You so full of hope
From http://www.goldenjackass.com/members/april2014_e1.htm
People have a totally distorted and false picture of Russia. Vlad the Hammer is a chess player, very smart, extremely learned, with a keen vision of what is right and what is wrong. Putin is a sober and focused professional who cares almost nothing about what the West thinks, since he knows the West is doomed from its own huge debt, phony money, and impaired financial structures, as well as from recent outsized dependence upon Chinese capital for the supply chain. Russia collapsed in 1989-1990 and then again in 1998. What Russia went through, the West will next experience. Russians have no entitlement mentality, as all they strive for is respect. The West has an entitlement mentality, and worse, the Americans have a conceited entitlement based upon some absurd sense of exceptionalism.
The important oil deals in Mexico between Russia and PEMEX, the tight broad relationship between China and Brazil, and the extreme wreckage of Argentina hasten the USDollar collapse in the entire South American region. The USGovt pursues pointless trade agreements that accomplish nothing and are badly misdirected. The pacts with Asia seek to isolate China (not possible), while the pacts with Europe appear to annex the continent (foolhardy). Even Japan has joined the gold parade, dumping USTreasury Bonds quietly, while securing Gold bullion in its stead. The American traders kill the gold price, control the market with absent inventory, and give away the physical metal to Eastern buyers. The United States under Wall Street folly in leadership is directed insanity. See the Common Senses Show essay (CLICK HERE) by Dave Hodges, which complements the Jackass perspective effectivel http://thecommonsenseshow.com/2014/03/30/putin-is-militarily-encircling-...
Upvoted
oops.
Cap.
Armstong made these points regarding gold vs. people's productivity to your point.
Example: Japan, Not much gold or resources but they managed to do pretty well with their productivity until the keynesian monetary antics up to abenomics over the last 25 - 30 years or so. They were pretty fierce in WWII, but diminishing resource inputs led to their demise. If I recall didn't an oil embargo by US start that one?
Then he mentions Zimwabe or so other hell hole and states if they had lots of gold would they excel in productivity? It's a great wide ranging interview.
http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2014/04/martin-armstrong-reports-of-...
Speaking of gold I wonder how much we still have, so we may HAVE to do your suggestion.
Stephen Zarenga is having 2 talks in Manhatten in May on your subject .
The first presentation is Monday May 5th, 6:30 to 8:30 at the at the NYC Seminar and Conference Center, 71 West 23rd Street New York, NY 10010 (6th Avenue at 23rd Street). The title is
"Our Broken Monetary System and How to Fix it."
This presentation will take place during the course of Social Problems that is taught by Gerardo Calderon.
The second presentation is Tuesday, May 6, from 6:30 pm to 8:30 pm also at the NYC Seminar and Conference Center, 71 West 23rd Street New York, NY 10010 (6th Avenue at 23rd Street).
This presentation will highlight America's mis structured banking system and also focus on the great Henry George's Concept of Money, formulated accurately over a hundred years ago. Gerardo Calderon will again moderate.
AMI thanks Marcial Cordon, Director of the New York Henry George School of Social Science, for arranging these events.
Friends, these seminars are free. If you plan on attending an email would be much appreciated at
ami@taconic.net
The updated plan Stephen Zarenga promotes is below.
http://www.monetary.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/32-page-brochure.pdf
His critique on MMT.
http://www.monetary.org/mmtevaluation
I like Henry George's theories because they are moral, and we certainly need an ethical perspective, but we need his ideas to be updated to today. Hense your input is needed - it's our life, in this time we are living in, we need to tackle this issue as wisely as possible.
Then there is Silvio Gesells "Demerage" which was used in Worgl Austria sucessfully in the Great Depression, until the Central bank snuffed it out, then back to poverty.
http://alt-money.tribe.net/thread/70e5eb29-853d-44ca-9faa-b789d1757037
Charles Eisenstein has a series of books on the subject that are thoughtful.
http://www.ascentofhumanity.com/text.php
http://sacred-economics.com/film/
http://charleseisenstein.net/
Lastly, just to point out, these types of issues have come up in our history a number of times including your example, but also the national elections at the end of the 1800's come to my mind since PM's are discussed here so much.
Bryan’s “Cross of Gold” Speech: Mesmerizing the Masses ... http://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/5354
I also like Charles Hugh Smith's recent points on the need to try to measure the economy differently than GDP in the information age.
Putin has resourses, but demographics play a big part in economies too...
Harry Dent Explains
http://survive-prosper.com/2014/01/09/the-4-key-cycles-that-drive-our-ec...
Peace-
And Scrappy scores the hat-trick!
Given the comments on the Bloomberg article, it seems to be working wonderfully. I'm amazed that anyone can still think the US economy is stronger than Russia's.
Then again, I rarely meet anyone who has a clue what the petrodollar standard even is, let alone understands it's the cornerstone of western/modern finance.
Oh wait, I forgot. It's been proven that deficits don't matter. So, I guess there's really nothing to worry about, after all.
I'm amazed that anyone can still think the US economy is stronger than Russia's.
I'm amazed you can say that without a sarc tag.
How about an Entropy Tag?
All I know is that past results are no guarantee of future performance. There are times when being "lower" on the ladder is actually a superior position.
Especially when the supports start coming undone.
Right now, it looks like western banksters are trying to soften their landing by crushing these weaker economies first. To get them all though, will require winning the next world war.
And I don't think that's in the script.
(and I didn't even bother to downvote you, btw)
TO BKbroiler,
So you think that Russia's pay-as-they-go economy is weaker than the U.S.'s borrow-as-they-go economy? Sure, and my neighbor who put zero down on his new Porsche, has no equity in his $500k house, takes fantastic vacations on borrowed money, has no money saved for retirement, and has a job that isn't all that secure is economically sound? I have no debt, do not take exotic vacations, and have secured my retirement funds. I guess in your eyes I wouldn't being doing all that well.
Here is an excellent post from someone else the other day on ZH who captures the comparsion between Russia and the U.S. in a nutshell.....
"To my best knowledge, though this fact is often covered up by lies, the USA government spends about 2X their yearly tax revenue. Thus by money printing, manipulation of interest rates, FED buying of treasuries, QE and using military force to enforce the dollar as world reserve currency, the USA is able to exert double the force it has the economic output to support. This makes America a hyper power, not a super power. If you compare just Russia to America, the US can, by use of it's dollar reserve status, enforce it's will in a measure much greater than it's population of economy could possibly support. While Russia buys it's weapons and supports it's society largely with tax revenue and surplus wealth from industry and resources. This is a major difference, paying your way, compared to borrowing your way. I imagine if roles were reversed, the USA would, overnight, have to cut military spending from approx. 1 trillion to under 500 million. Social Security, Medicare, Military pensions, all federal penssions, the hundreds of Federal police and spy entities, the whole bloody lot would have to take a 50% slash and burn to their budgets, tens of millions of people would lose their jobs in an instant. Pensions would go to less than 1/2 and millions of medicare patients would be kicked off the government free health care train. So, IF, America had to pay it's way like Russia, the entire nation would collapse into the deepest, darkest depression in the history of the modern world. The only thing preventing this, pay as you go collapse, is the Might Power of the American Military to invade, overthrow or kill anyone in this world trying to exit the dollar world reserve currency system. Since signs point to Russia, China and some South American nations moving slowly to get out from under dollar hegemony, we can see the Ukraine crisis in this light, as a move to crush Russia before they can exit the dollar. Once Russia is crushed, the next move would be on China. This type of situation is what brings on world wars and could bring on nuclear nightmares. But, King Dollar MUST rule the world, or the Neocon and Neoliberal rulers of the USA will lose their power to enslave all mankind in a web of debt and police states."That was a good post, but the USA spends about 1.2 times it's revenue using data from FRED (FGEXPND and FGRECPT). US government receipts may be inflated due to people locking in capital gains last year, so the actual ratio could be higher.
"Strong" and "weak" are ambiguous terms. Certainly the US economy is bigger than Russia's. However, they are growing at a faster rate, and as your post demonstrated, our economy is more fragile.
One day soon the butterfly effect will flutter in when some merchant in a dusty bazzar will refuse payment with US dollars and then the world will change.
People is now aware. In Europe mainly, USA want to keep the lead with NATO. Over my friend, over... just images on the medias. US Soft power is over...
"Then they can bring in their NWO, aka Feudalism 2.0"
I doubt the asian monetary alliance will allow a NWO to happen.
I think at this point, they're all just clamoring to see see who will head it.
I was always suspecious of this comment made by Obama.....
http://youtu.be/XsFR8DbSRQE
Vlad: "Please to Obamatron, there is no tossings into briar patch!"
Putin can freeze 'em out by turning the gas off, everything else is immaterial.
And if/when he does, Barry & Angela will both get on their knees and blow him (but only 1 would enjoy it).
It's worth what the guy with the gun says it worth. And pretty soon we're all going to find out who's holding the gun, and who's just holding their own cock.
we will see who will smile last .... not Putin thats for sure!
...WW3 will revolve around Russian and Middle East Oil pipelines, and the Malacca shipping route in Southeast Asia.
The Russians will always prevail. They don't have a long way to go to hit bottom anyway. They are used to harsh weather and how to survive. You see it in their weaponry....you see it the grit of their people.
Not saying i want to live there or have to go through such conditions. But if I had a shit ton of fiat currency to bet on who would fare better in the collapse....my worthless fiat money would go on the Russians than a bunch of ADHD, obese, ignorant, ill bred, Kardashian fascinated, anti-depressive, pill popping Americans.
Always bet red.
Always bet red? really? The russians wil always prevail?
Where the hell am I?
Open your eyes, and you'll see the brown of your own bunghole. That's where you are...
Much of urban America has turned into a shit hole.
Don't believe me, take a random walk through Detroit, Miami, Dallas, Chicago, LA, New Orleans, or Philadelphia.
But we must send a billion dollars to the Ukraine, don't you understand that. The MIC shills who show up here will insist on it. It's all about Putin, or Iran, or the terrrorists everywhere. Why the fuck should I care about any of that when my own country is going to shit because the ruling elite have decided to scrap the American experiement.
What part of "Never get involved in a land war in Asia " is tough to comprehend?
It's hard not to like the Russians these days compared to the uni polar Keynesian world order scum.
Yep, I deal with people from all walks of life all day long. Americans have become the most entitled, pussified, self-interested, greedy, medicated, fattest, lazy, coddled, dependent, weak, dumb, arrogant, unrealistic, spoiled piecest of shit on this earth. I'm not exaggerating. Our culture has completely gone down the shitter. In Japan they can have a literal nuclear meltdown in their people behave & try to support each other. In South Korea people who surived the ferry accident are committing suicide because they felt responsible for the fact they lived yet others they were with died. Here in the U.S. a hurricane hits and its Armageddon in 2 days, and that was several years ago when people were more civil.
With the least bit of hardship most Americans would curl up in the fetal postion crying like babies asking the government to help them.
"we will see who will smile last .... not Putin thats for sure!"
No doubt the last one to smile will be Barry. Have you seen him in a debate when he doesn't know what to say? He smirks like a choom addled chimp.
Arius,
As long that it's not China, 'cause that would be scary.
Xi Jing Ping?
If you ask about Russian companies, debt is denominated in dollars because Russian companies are mostly funded abroad, but Russia has lots of dollars in FX reserves so these companies are able to get their hands on these dollars easily.
the debt is mostly in USD
the cash reserves also
If Obozo could quietly arrange to have the Great Gartman (long of bullshit) advise these Russian Companies on how to invest that $115 Billion, it would be gone within weeks and we would have Putin on his knees.
Respect Gartman's Authoritay!
GARTMAN ALERT !!! (market crash tomorrow ?) 1 hour ago !
"Gartman sounds the all clear for stocks"by Patti Domm
Dennis Gartman is back to buying stocks and is "pleasantly long" on the market after bailing out in early April.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101600027