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Groupthink Or Black Swan Rising? Not A Single 'Economist' Expects An Economic Downturn

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum of Acting-Man blog,

A 100% Consensus

This doesn't happen very often.  Marketwatch reports that Jim Bianco points out in a recent market comment that the 67 economists taking part in a regular Bloomberg survey have a unanimous forecast regarding treasury bond yields: they will be higher 6 months from now. This is a truly striking result, and given the well-known propensity of mainstream economists to guess wrong (their forecasts largely consist of extrapolating the most recent short term trend), it may provide us with a few insights.

In fact, considering that there have been only a handful of instances since 2009 when a majority of the economists surveyed predicted a decline in yields, we can already state that their forecasts regarding treasuries are quite often (though obviously not always) wide of the mark. In fact, so far this year they are already wrong again – and so are fund managers, as they hold their lowest exposure to treasuries in seven years.

This is not the only thing there is complete unanimity about. Not a single economist taking part in a separate survey believes an economic downturn is possible.

“Economists are unwavering in their assessment of where yields are headed in the next half year.


Jim Bianco, of Bianco Research, points out in a market comment Tuesday that a survey of 67 economists this month shows every single one of them expects the 10-year Treasury yield to rise in the next six months.


The survey, which is done each month by Bloomberg, has been notably bearish for some time now, with nearly everyone expecting rising rates. In March, 97% expected rising rates. In February, 95% expected yields to climb. And in January, 97% held that expectation. Since the beginning of 2009, there have only been a handful of instances where less than 50% expected rates to rise.


Still, the fact that every single survey participant is bearish is striking. The last time the survey had that result was in May 2012, when benchmark yields were well below 2%.


“Literally there is maybe one economist in the United States straddling the bullish/bearish divide on interest rates. The rest are bearish,” Bianco writes.


He adds that a J.P. Morgan client survey shows that the percentage of money manager respondents who said they are underweight Treasurys is the second highest in seven years.


This is all the more surprising when we consider that investors went into 2014 thinking yields would rise significantly. Instead, the benchmark yield is lower than when the year started, as the market waded throw subpar economic data, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve. The 10-year note last traded at a yield of 2.72% on Tuesday, down from just over 3% on Dec. 31.


Then again, a separate poll of economists recently showed that exactly zero expect the economy to contract.


But when the entire market thinks one thing is about to happen, the opposite outcome is often in store, notes James Camp, managing director of fixed income at Eagle Asset Management. So don’t count out that result with Treasurys, he advises.


“It’s the most hated asset class,” says Camp, but Treasurys are some of the best performers year-to-date.”

(emphasis added)

Color us unsurprised regarding the fact that the 'most hated asset class' has turned out to be one of the better performing so far this year. Gold is probably hated even more, and for similar reasons. Everybody expects the weakest recovery of the entire post WW2 era to reach 'escape velocity' (whatever that is supposed to mean), even after adding almost $8 trillion to the federal debt and some $4.8 trillion to the broad true money supply since the 2008 crisis have led to such a dismal outcome (of course as card-carrying Austrians we believe this development is precisely what should have been expected).



Likely Outcomes

While treasury bond yields have only moved down a little so far this year, one must keep in mind that they are at a historically very low level to begin with. At a yield of roughly 4%, a 50 basis points move represents 12.5% of the entire distance to zero. However, we also know that a lot more downside is possible. Yields have already been quite a bit lower on a number of occasions.

There can be little doubt that if the consensus of economists turns out to be wrong again, it will likely be wrong on both t-bond yields and the economy. As an aside, it is noteworthy that long term yields have weakened considerably even while five year yields have remained roughly unchanged and yields on the short end of the curve have actually risen slightly since the beginning of the year.

We interpret this as the market judging the Fed to be adopting a tighter monetary policy, and expecting weaker aggregate economic activity to ultimately result from this new stance. Clearly, the 'tapering' of 'QE' does represent a tightening of policy, no matter what Fed members are saying about it. It means the pace of money supply inflation is being slowed down.

Note that something similar happened in the run-up to the 2008 crisis, only in this instance the yield curve actually inverted prior to the economic downturn. One should not expect a complete yield curve inversion to warn in a timely fashion of a recession when the central bank is hell-bent on keeping its policy rate at or near zero. We know this from 'ZIRP' experiments that have been undertaken in other countries, such as e.g. Japan.

If the economy doesn't do what seemingly everybody expects it to do in the famed 'second half' (practically the entire sell-side shares the consensus of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg), then treasuries and gold should be expected to rise, while equities could end up getting hit quite badly.



30 year t-bond yield: declining since the beginning of the year – click to enlarge.


It is clear that one of the reasons why economists expect no contraction in the economy is that 'traditional' recession indicators still appear largely benign, if somewhat weaker than previously. We prefer to keep an eye on things most people don't watch, such as the ratio of capital to consumer goods production, which shows how factors of production are pulled toward the higher stages of the capital structure when monetary pumping is underway. This ratio tends to peak and reverse close to recessions. Its recent trend isn't entirely conclusive yet as it has begun to move sideways, but it clearly seems to be issuing a 'heads up' type warning signal.


Capital vs Cons.Goods Production

Capital vs. consumer goods production – it tends to peak close to the beginning of recession periods, and declines while recessions are underway, as the production structure is temporarily shortened again – click to enlarge.


Note also that the transition from expansion to contraction is usually quite swift, and never widely expected.



This is an astonishing degree of consensus thinking, but it perfectly mirrors the complacency we see in stock market sentiment and positioning data. The probability that such a unanimous view will turn out to be correct is traditionally extremely low. The economy is likely resting on a much weaker foundation than is generally believed. This is not least the result of massive monetary pumping and deficit spending, both of which tend to severely weaken the economy on a structural level, even though they can create a temporary illusion of 'growth'.


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Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:09 | 4688987 Zest
Zest's picture

Oh, we'll be just fine. Nothing to see here.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:12 | 4689000 markmotive
markmotive's picture

True but the bubble talk is pretty rampant too.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:16 | 4689022 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Who pays the salaries of these 67 retards?

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:33 | 4689077 john39
john39's picture

downturn? crazy talk...  the FED fixed all that. 

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:51 | 4689107 dryam
dryam's picture

It’s called mathematics and the exponential equation.  When there’s *massive* debt at all levels of government, private debt, corporate debt, everywhere-you-look-debt, and there are $600+ trillion in derivatives (which are very rate sensitive) artificial low interest rates by the Fed will go on until the last breath of this current monetary system.  Rates go up the least bit, and it’s game over.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:57 | 4689138 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

One black swan coming up. Perhaps by Sunday...


The Upcoming Russian Invasion of Ukraine and Georgia

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 23:07 | 4689160 james.connolly
james.connolly's picture

The USA has been invading 100's of country's for decades and nobody did shit, ... why in the fuck now if other country's immitate the USA should any country on earth do shit?

The UN will simply VOTE, and there will never be a majority to do shti,

The meanest and strongest will all learn to rape and pillage,

The USA started the trend, and now every asshole on earth wants in on the action.


Stupid title "Russia 'invades' Russia, but whatever", ... nobody did shit when USA invaded and killed +100 Million over the last 100 years, ... nobody is going to do shit now when RUSSIA & CHINA start acting like uncle-sam.

The best thing to come of this will be collapse of the UN/IMF system, as everyone see's that the VETO (RUSSIA) prevent's UN  domination of the world, once the BRIC's drop out of the UN, then it will be world chaos for all.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 23:31 | 4689213 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture



Stock prices never drop....


...or is that house prices?

I forget.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 01:02 | 4689350 Gaius Frakkin' ...
Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

It takes considerable more effort to herd 67 sheep.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 01:33 | 4689375 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

The thoughts and opinions of these 67 e-CON-o-mists mean nothing.

All that matters is if Ms. Yellen (or her F-Buddies at the BOJ, ECB, IMF, etc) will be printing moar money tomorrow and handing it over to the primary dealers in exchange for crap paper from their loan originators.  If the answer to that question is "YES", then the market will continue to go higher, until we have a major exogenous event like a war in the U-Crane, or a major disaster, etc.  It really is that simple.

And - Its been so long since the Central Banksta's have been out of the "market," no one will remember how to "invest" once the Banksta's stop printing fiat.  I really think they have crossed the rubicon, and will be unable to stop their printing in any meaningful way.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 01:51 | 4689406 MeMadMax
MeMadMax's picture

"Hey mike, I was calling to see what you were gonna put on this stupid bloomberg survey before I go out for a ride on my yacht... Bullish? Ok, see ya at the dinner party in cuba tonight!"

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 03:25 | 4689472 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Isn't this groupthingy is exactly what gives rise to Black Swan?

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 06:32 | 4689641 PT
PT's picture

followed by "Nobodycouldaseeditcummin!!!"






That's why you should ask a Nobody.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 06:37 | 4689650 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Not a single economist or psychiastrist expects the end of the world, that doesn't mean it won't happen.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 04:56 | 4689533 UselessEater
UselessEater's picture

USA has been invading countries - so have other nations and elites groups from various corners of the planet.

Lets not put the USA on a solitary pedal-stool.

The UN is a servant.

The USA started nothing that the British East India company for one example had not already started.

Who started the UN??? The IMF???? Guess?

Why would their demise help us? Do not get me wrong I want them GONE, but TPTB that started them are obviously using them to tilt the axis to their agenda.

Don't fall into their trap.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 21:53 | 4693544 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

100 million eh?  Care to provide some backup there?

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 23:03 | 4689143 james.connolly
james.connolly's picture

exp(-infinity) is still zero, ... and its math, interests rates can be held to near zero for government forever, but the PTB will make the little people pay high interest, that's a different story.

The FED has been printing to astronomic numbers since 1970, and since 2008 to infinity,

The end of history is here,

Nothing can end the'end of history' accept loss of faith of the USD, and that can only come from the FAILURE of the USMIL, and that ain't likely to happen given that 80% of the worlds population is on TEAM IMF.

The USMIL back IMF, and IMF creates FIAT to infinite, today the USD, tomorrow the IMF-SDR, but its still the same people yesterday, today, and tomorrow running the show.

How can it possibly end? I can't, the perpetual FIAT machine is here, only complete destruction of habitat can end the system.


Fiat is wealth

Freedom is slavery

war is peace

ignorance is strenght ( zh moronity will also go  to infinity )


Thu, 04/24/2014 - 05:48 | 4689562 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

A follow on survey indicates 100% of NeoCons believe a nuclear war with China and Russia would be both winnable and enjoyable.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 09:14 | 4690141 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

when you're paid close to $500k you have no sense of what is happening on main street. 

Try selling something someone can use, visiting malls, going to convenience stores to get a sense of how bad it really is.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:28 | 4689054 WhyWait
WhyWait's picture


Does Stockman count as an economist?  He's not wearing a collar ...

Speaking of which I probably paid $20,000 - a whole lot more in today's money - for my economics degree.  If all 67 economists are wrong about a downturn ... could I still my school or ite Econ department for consumer fraud?


Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:57 | 4689139 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I paid about $45K for my Economics degree from 'Nova, graduating in 1990.  I don't think we have standing to sue, based on this article.  More's the pity.

But we can disagree with them.  Makes me sick when economists are devalued to the point of being nothing but the "mystical high priests" who just slavishly confirm the status-quo for their pay-masters.  Yet, that seems to be what they've become.  Rubber stamp the recovery meme and here's your paycheck.  I want to puke.

I called the top in August of last year on here and..... I stand by that call.  Everything since then has been a bunch of channel-stuffing and the usual bag of tricks to pretend the economic hill has not already been crested.

Of course, we crested the BIG hill long ago.  But the most recent rise in this ever-descending roller-coaster ride is behind us as well.  

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 00:56 | 4689286 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

I paid about $5k for my accounting degree.

I built the budgets for the forty seven companies I'm controller for with built in deflationary expectations beginning in June, though I added 20% for fuel costs.

My last budget was dead-on for fuel (we use a lot of fuel).

My base budget, with my deflationary expectations are the base for the lies I get told by Ops and Sales for their expectations.  I track both.  Since 2010 I've been within 5% of actual...thye've varied by 40%.

Have been through a lot of Ops Executives over the last couple of years.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 02:25 | 4689423 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Economists remind me of real estate agents. Real estate agents always tell you the market is going up or about to go up. I think they attend the same schools or myopic optimism.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 06:37 | 4689651 PT
PT's picture

The highest paid economists are the best economists that money can buy.

"We need the Fed to print some money and give it to us.  Say something that will make the sheeps agree with us."

No such thing as highly paid economists.  They are a propaganda machine.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:13 | 4689006 lordylord
lordylord's picture

Are they basing this off of the real numbers or the fake government numbers?  Isn't central planning great? 

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 01:44 | 4689397 intric8
intric8's picture

They're all lined up like a bunch of ducks. Maybe their all convinced MMT is infallible. Central banks will backstop up the ass, till the end of time

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:31 | 4689065 hobopants
hobopants's picture

The progenitors of the problem can't see the problem...hmm wonder why?

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 00:32 | 4689302 GtownSLV
GtownSLV's picture

A kettle of Krugman's, what could possible go wrong?

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 10:44 | 4690571 augustusgloop
augustusgloop's picture

black schwanz rising

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:09 | 4688988 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

the upside of a permanent depression is we will never have another recession

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:15 | 4689016 lordylord
lordylord's picture

Keynes did promise to end the business cycle.  May he rot.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:33 | 4689078 hobopants
hobopants's picture

Zero hedge's first optimist ;-)

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:40 | 4689096 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

I'm tired of all of these -ions. Can't we have -ings or -als for a change?

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:49 | 4689121 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Fleecings and anals?

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 07:39 | 4689791 PT
PT's picture

Hangings for the criminals?

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:11 | 4688998 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Their calculators must not be able to handle large numbers like 17,000,000,000,000 and 85,000,000,000.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 06:44 | 4689662 PT
PT's picture

Don't you remember?  Debt doesn't matter because one man's debt is another man's income.  And that other man is going to innovate and create jobs and give us wonderful things to buy!

Pardon me while I puke.  Some things make me feel sick, even when I say them in jest.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:14 | 4689011 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

This is not the only thing there is complete unanimity about. Not a single economist taking part in a separate survey believes an economic downturn is possible.

And the author of the article seems to be delusioned into thinking that an economic downturn is good for the bond yields of the said country. 

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 23:21 | 4689195 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Define "good".

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 01:01 | 4689349 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

My bad. Should have said good for bond prices if you are long.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:15 | 4689018 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Name one Banker that can't wait for the next asset bubble!" (sound of crickets chirping.)

"Now name a single economist who can't wait for the next asset bubble!" (sound of the Wembly Crowd when Queen played at Live Aid.)

whooo-hoo! we've done it again!

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:17 | 4689031 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

(somewhere out there in that crowd is the current and previous two Fed Chairmen btw.)

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:17 | 4689027 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Contrariansim is dead

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 23:22 | 4689198 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

No, it just moved because it isn't rewarded around here any more.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 01:02 | 4689351 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

So the crowd was consensus long on gold in 2011 ? nope

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:19 | 4689035 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

....and 100% of all the engineers, owners, and passengers of the Titanic said it was "unsinkable".....tempt the fates at your peril.


It will crash due to some sort of "unforeseen event"....some "outlier" or "black swan"....or any number of "who cudda known" events.


How many German economists foresaw the hyper inflation to come under Weimar?

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:55 | 4689133 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

The saddest part about this is, that Keynesianism will not be discredited in the eyes of the general public. The Keynes mouth pieces will just say, it was a one in 500 years event.

One day economics will be understood by all but none of us will be alive to see it.


Thu, 04/24/2014 - 00:55 | 4689339 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

The saddest part is that all the data is proving beyond any doubt we have a slowdown well underway.

Of course when your "financial data" (cough, cough paycheck cough, cough) says "we own your ass"...what else is there but "never ending rays of sunshine"?

For the rest of us "it's just pointing out the obvious."

Or is it "the oblivious"?

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 19:03 | 4692971 August
August's picture

>>>One day economics will be understood by all but none of us will be alive to see it.

Man, are you ever the optimist.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 00:54 | 4689336 Ayr Rand
Ayr Rand's picture

Nobody sees these things if they are too plugged in. From an interview of Warren Buffett in May 2007, in which he said the subprime crisis would not have a big impact on the economy:

Borrowers and lenders in the subprime mortgage business were betting that house prices would go up in future, Buffett said. Now that delinquencies and foreclosures are increasing there's extra supply of homes for sale, which changes the dynamics of the real estate market, he explained.

"You'll see plenty of misery in that field. You've already seen some," Buffett said. "I don't seen a big impact on the economy though."

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:20 | 4689038 Aquarius
Aquarius's picture

The "measure" (a qualitative term used here accordingly) of the "Economist" is about to benchmarked and recorded - in terms of harsh reality, for all to see. The smoke will finally clear and the mirrors will shatter, with the light of truth.

No wonder that they are dying like flies. Expect this trend to accelerate.

Ho hum

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:21 | 4689041 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

This article gives new meaning to the idea that we have grown complacent! What I'm seeing develop is an "almost surreal" feeling of indifference towards reality. Companies have already ushered saving from interest paid on debt into the earning column and a major reason inflation remains low is they are sitting on a hoard of cash this has lowered the velocity of money. We must remember the artificially low FED controlled interest rates are a massive one-off or onetime tailwind that is mainly behind us.  

When rates stop going lower or reverse the positive effect will ebb and become a major headwind. With massive government debt in many countries and the economy still weak this headwind has the potential to become devastating. The collision of MMT, social unrest over inequality, and other destabilizing factors have the potential to create the perfect storm. More on this subject in the article below.


Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:24 | 4689050 navy62802
navy62802's picture

More like black gorilla ... we're facing something orders of magnitude worse than previous "black swan" events.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:25 | 4689051 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

The worse things get the longer we QE the higher the market will go the worse things will get....   What should trouble you is the consequences should the economy ever really improve.  Sure the probability of it happening is comparable to winning the lottery every month for a year straight after the shark that was attacking you got struck and killed by lightening but still, it could happen.  



Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:56 | 4689132 dtwn
dtwn's picture

Ha, love it. Anyone care to calculate that probability? Too drunk and busy fappin' to thougjts of yellen to do it right now. . . . . .

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 23:54 | 4689070 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

I am 100% sure that they are 100% wrong.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:33 | 4689076 WMM II
WMM II's picture

"The economy is likely resting on a much weaker foundation than is generally believed."

the only 'weaker foundation' that the real economy is laying upon is that of the still criminal but as of yet and never will be held accountable phukkers i like to call 'the banks' (although prior to the lehman moment, one of the scungiest multi-facial "we are market makers" was then just an investment house. god bless the secretary of the treasury who let that outfit in...

oh wait....wrong  'god'...


plenty of gods to go around, though....)



Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:35 | 4689082 james.connolly
james.connolly's picture


A coming war with Russia where the ZIO led chinese & USA battle PUTIN,..

What's not to like, if your an 'investor' in DEATH?

USA real estate will go to infinite, gold will plummet

Social Media will be the most valuable asset on earth, and the NSA spying will be universal.


How could any rational person not be bullish?

Only wild card is that EUROPE will  be destroyed by war, ... but what is new, they'll have to borrow from the FED to rebuild, ..DEJA-VU, life is good, very good.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:38 | 4689093 Flux
Flux's picture

Doomies, my friends, some of you may wish to prepare for the possibility that there will not be an global economic collapse, or WW 3, or hyper-inflation, or a proletariat rebellion, or a Zombie Apocalypse. Or death, disease, decay and destruction.

Or whatever.

Maybe life is just going to motor on as it has been for thousands of years. And if that is the case, how are you going to deal with it?

Imagine a world right now not tainted by your fear and paranoia. How would you live?


Thu, 04/24/2014 - 00:44 | 4689322 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

you're a fool. A reset will occur  -sooner than you think.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 01:07 | 4689358 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

It already has "started." (Been started actually. The Fed popped the debt bubble in the USA last year.) We're well past "doomering" now.

The story as I see it is "Hitler's logic" in Barbarossa.

The irony of invading Russia as making perfect sense should not be lost on anyone.

Only historians bitch about it.

But if we're in need of "the mega billions" here...well, one can understand President Putin's..."historical grievance."

Of course both Napolean and Hitler launched pre-emptive and unprovoked attacks.

Putin is the one invading a sovereign territory this time.

Whether or not the USA goaded him into striking is irrelevant.

What isn't irrelevant is "if there was A Goading what is the policy objective?"

The only one I see is Moscow that we are firmly entrenched on one side here.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 04:24 | 4689520 Flux
Flux's picture

Meh ...

I know its the end of the world for you guys. But be honest, when was the last time either of you got some sunshine?

Stepped outside, tossed a frisbee around, met some girls?

Enjoyed your life?

You will die, some of you sooner than you suspect, and no politics or economy will change that. And every moment you spend pining away for a miserable end (which says more about your state of being than the world's), is one more moment you've robbed from yourself.

We only have moments, don't waste them.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 07:20 | 4689727 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Too busy working, pal. I hope for the best and prepare for the worst.


Unfortunately for you, GRASSHOPPER, I am like the ant. Go play in the sun and chase the girls.


It is a Mathematical CERTAINTY that in any adiabatic system that Exponential Growth leads to Exponential Collapse. It'''s kind of like CANCER.


So when you are out there starving in the cold I will not help you.


So you had best get serious and get a job. If you have one then get another. It gets mighty cold and, as for the seasons...they do change.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:41 | 4689100 booboo
booboo's picture

I will guarantee this, Obama will not walk out of office without a major selloff. Book it bitchez.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:55 | 4689128 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

A major selloff you say?  So like after the SPX trades 2000 this year (a given if you look at the FED balance sheet) maybe we will pull back 7-10%ish?  Or do you think it will be some time in 2015 as we close in on 3000?   

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 23:35 | 4689216 booboo
booboo's picture

So you were part of Bush's Economic advisors in 2008 too. How did that work out for you guys? Epic market euphoria to epic fail. zzzzzzz you guys never learn but but god damn its fun to look at your faces on CNBC.
"THEY NO NOTHING!!!!" (Cramer)
Remember that moment? Bwaaaaahahahaha
Wash rinse repeat

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 04:31 | 4689522 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

October 2015; with a difficult grinding up-trend with many choppy fall backs until then, but with a low angle slope up to the top. Then a real crash. 40% in the first wave followed by another 50%.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:42 | 4689101 Vint Slugs
Vint Slugs's picture

It is interesting to see this essay at ZH and just below it, timewise, an essay from Hoisington Investment Management.  Without doubt Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt have been the premier forecasters about where bond yields are going.  While their outlook may not specifically be included in the Bloomberg survey and may not address the question of a potential economic downturn, it nonetheless is at odds with the 67 "economists'" unanimity of the survey.

Note: with regard to bond yield direction, let's not neglect the views of professor Antal Fekete whose theories have long heralded deflationary conditions and, by implication, lower bond yields.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 04:33 | 4689524 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

The Long Bond is at a low now; the yield will rise from now until well into next year.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:43 | 4689104 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Did they talk to anyone at the The Ludwig von Mises Institute?!

But then their paychecks don't depend on them not understanding what is happening.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:44 | 4689106 messystateofaffairs
messystateofaffairs's picture

Bloomberg picked the jury. Any questions?

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:49 | 4689118 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

On one hand everyone is "bullish", but on the other the mainstream media pulls out enough contrarian thinkers and people claiming that there is a "bubble" to then conclude that since we have bubble thinkers, there is no bubble. 

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:57 | 4689131 nakki
nakki's picture

OT: As has been mentioned by numerous people the end is closer than most think. The bubble is 99% filled. The reason I'm sure of this? FARMERSONLY.COM. I know they've been around for sometime, but advertising during NBA and NHL playoffs has to cost some $$ and I'm pretty sure they are not reaching their target audience. Maybe I'm wrong, after all OLYMPIC HOCKEY was trending big time on FACEBOOK in INDIA (and pretty much no where else), of all places before TJ Oshi beat the Russians in shootout. Perhaps those 1 million farmers in the US that aren't married, are fired up about the Rockets Blazers or Blackhawks Blues game. Or maybe this is the top of Tech Bubble 2.0

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 22:57 | 4689137 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Talking their book to get the retail crowd in or to get them to stay in.

They make their commission either way; but when the next crash comes they'll be on the phone and email explaining the next "recovery".

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 23:06 | 4689157 alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture


    Right!   ...and all the engineers from the Titanic declared it unsinkable.   Anyone heard how that turned out?


Thu, 04/24/2014 - 08:55 | 4690042 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

alfred b.  "Anyone heard how that turned out?"

One theory!

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 23:26 | 4689203 Roger Knights
Roger Knights's picture

The current roller-coaster thrashing of the market at a top is what happened in 1929 before the crash.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 23:34 | 4689215 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

Better buy some real candles and climb a real peak.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 23:51 | 4689230 MedicalQuack
MedicalQuack's picture

I tried to post a video here but it would show it in preview but then when done it would not show up...

Paul Wilmott..."economists don't have laws"...and it will never be 100 bottles of beer...

#1 quant tells us basically they just have ideas...and sorry I couldn't embed the video here.


Wed, 04/23/2014 - 23:47 | 4689233 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Get over it, 100% consensus is a completely normal symptom in central planning.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 00:09 | 4689265 teslaberry
teslaberry's picture

perhaps the bubble is in economists. in lawyers, in speculators, in commentators, in an army of people payed borrowed money  to collect salaries and consume with them and complain abou their hard service. 


how will so many chickens sound when they cluck in angst when the party ends. 



Thu, 04/24/2014 - 01:30 | 4689380 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

They are simply drawing upwards sloping lines for food. It need be no more complex than that.


Any of them actually in the know, know there is no way to accurately predict the government or Fed moves well enough - without inside information - to make an accurate prediction. You simply can't predict completely arbitrary future actions with any degree of confidence. In that context, what do you do? You draw the upwards sloping line that people expect, so that nobody asks you to substantiate the prediction.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 02:14 | 4689419 litemine
litemine's picture

Economists, which this is the original OP's point work with numbers. Truthfully, the history of numbers.

Never before has an economy been changed the way the American Dollar Has. Now, if I wanted to manipulate a currency and had all the tricks in a bag that the Fed has/had the Numbers could be manipulated so

 "The 67 economists taking part in a regular Bloomberg survey have a unanimous forecast regarding treasury bond yields: they will be higher 6 months from now." Quote.

But the Past has no bearing on the future of this never before travelled road. And the Fed, a private corporation while steering this boat and all it controls from Income taxes, interest rates, the Central Banks World Wide and the Enforement by the IMF and the largest Military Complex ever assembled knowing that when this ship sinks, many will Die.

The Power needs to get removed (from the Fed), past crimes need to get punished and the fight for Democracy needs to start with the USA.

History will give a complete new set of numbers for future Economists, but they are not even truthfully released........and the Sheeple are Blinded by the Elected, sad oh so Sad.

This is what we leave our Children. Hoping for the best, prepared for the worst.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 02:37 | 4689433 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

100% consensus also in todays FT (Europe) on Eurozone recovery:

- "Lisbon debt auction lifts eurozone spirits" by Robin Wigglesworth and Lindsay Whipp

- "Greece creditors to debate extra relief" by Andrew Byrne and Kerin Hope

- "France to ease cuts in public deficit" by Adam Thomson

- "Portugal optimism grows on bailout exit" by Peter Wise

- "Eurozone periphery's interest bill is bearable" by Daniel Gros (Letters)

- and the highlight is the "Insight": "French 'ticking bomb' at heart of euro area can be defused safely" by Huw Pill, Chief European economist at GS

All in one issue!

Unbelievably, I read through all of these articles (am I stupid?) and now I feel sick from all the lies and propaganda (of course).

PS: Huw Pill? Blue Pill?

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 04:38 | 4689526 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Nice. appreciate the post. one thing we know is that 100% optimism is always followed by unexpected failure.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 02:36 | 4689434 Xanadu_doo
Xanadu_doo's picture


Follwoing sheep.

Right off the...

...oh what? shiney yellow? out in the lake?




Thu, 04/24/2014 - 02:53 | 4689449 Spungo
Spungo's picture

I'm so indie that I refuse to use condoms when banging prostitutes. I still wear a condom when sharing heroin needles because I don't want to catch HIV.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 04:19 | 4689516 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

What they are really saying is, that the FED will print until the whole thing comes down. Since they don't know the timing of that, its just gonna keep going up.....ala Hugh Hendry, they're all just resigned to the fact.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 04:36 | 4689525 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

Is anybody watching USD-CNY?

Ho Lee FUK! This is not going to end well.

But... but... we had 100% consensus until Jan 2014! What happened? We all agreed!?!

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 05:18 | 4689543 Rogue Economist
Rogue Economist's picture

Maybe if Kollege Grads could actually find a job, we would have an economic upturn.

Latest Rant, Student Loan Forgiveness now UP on the Doomstead Diner!


Thu, 04/24/2014 - 05:50 | 4689564 Incubus
Incubus's picture

No one could've seen this coming!





Thu, 04/24/2014 - 05:54 | 4689571 22winmag
22winmag's picture

Economists are like assholes.


Everybody's got one.


Bloomberg has 67.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 06:53 | 4689688 smacker
smacker's picture

Half of economists are so dumb they can't use a calculator. The other half are sucking at the teat of government and are paid to only look at the window dressing.

Such survey results are therefore entirely expected.

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 07:01 | 4689696 esum
esum's picture

ussa economy is leaning tower of pisa...... watery foundation

Thu, 04/24/2014 - 07:56 | 4689852 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture
Telling Students to Earn Less Obama now calls for reforming his bleeding college loan program.
Thu, 04/24/2014 - 13:17 | 4691227 Sky Man
Sky Man's picture

Mainstream, Neo-Classical economics is a joke.  Ask someone who understands economics on the basis of physical reality and natural laws, who employs a scientific approach, and you will get an entirely different and decidedly more sobering assessemnt, long or short term. Mainstream economists rely on models that are self referential and detached from physical reality, especially with regard to quality and quantities of available energy, which is the most critical factor. If you want rational and meaningful economic assessments or projections, consult someone who is schooled in the sciences.

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