This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

New Home Sales Collapse To 8 Month Lows

Tyler Durden's picture




 

New Home Sales collapsed 14.5% month-over-month to its lowest since July 2013. A mere 384k versus 450k expectations is the biggest miss since July. So much for the Spring buying season... This is a 7 standard deviation miss against the smart economists' estimates! Whocouldanode that when the free-money sponsored fast money leaves the game that real people with real debt and real wages are simply priced out of buying a new home? Supply of unsold new homes jumps to 6 months, its highest since Oct 2011 (as once again the visible hand's interference has produced yet another mal-investment boom as the 'if we build it, they will come' builders face an ugly reality).

 

 

The Economists nailed it... (Deutsche's Joe Lavorgna was above consensus at 460k)

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:10 | 4686312 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

bullish....Dow 33,0000

NasCrap 50,000...

Gold $35...

Silver Free....

 

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:15 | 4686331 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Who could have ever seen this coming?

 

Oh.. /sarc

 

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:16 | 4686338 So Close
So Close's picture

Was listening to report on same on the radio yesterday.  Announcer said it was beacuse of "lack of available inventory."  Nothing to buy.  Fucking liars.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:19 | 4686349 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Lol... There's plenty of inventory around here.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:29 | 4686389 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

Headline says "Collapse".  Drink!

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 11:28 | 4686649 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Here.  You don't need a headline:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=7iv

 

That's 1960s level of sales, with 60 million more people in the country.

Still object to "collapse"?

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:30 | 4686392 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

There's only a lack of inventory at a "we're going to basically steal this house from you" price.  That's where the market wants to be, but nobody who owns one is willing to take the hit.  So they linger and linger and linger.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 11:11 | 4686573 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Unless 'they' revive the zero-down, subprime, no-doc, NINJA mortgages, the housing market may actually correct.

Reversion to the mean. That would be mean.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:21 | 4686352 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Funny I can drive my Neighborhood and count 20 homes for sale that have been available for nearly a year lol...fucking liars for sure. Then again you can't blame the ACTORS they are only reading the script they receive.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:21 | 4686362 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Well, yeah, those aren't new. LOL. And the band played on...

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 11:46 | 4686725 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"new construction" is the market.

PERIOD.

New construction means "Teslas in every driveway."

New construction means Solar Cities.

Everything else is just a so called asset getting depreciated to ZERO and can...and WILL...but had...FOR ONE DOLLAR.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:56 | 4686499 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Sadly I don't live where you do. My daughter is trying to buy near us. Houses are still selling the day after they come on the market. Sometimes they aren't much over asking though so there is hope. Bay Area is the last holdout in the country maybe? Fingers crossed.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 11:35 | 4686683 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

EVERY SINGLE HOUSING THREAD . . . you get 30 ZHers talking about houses for sale for years and not moving in their area.

Then you get one guy in 1 tiny segment of one county who says it's booming.  Or that's extreme.  Maybe 3 tiny segments of 3 counties (NY, Calif, FL).

But you know what? MOST PEOPLE DON'T LIVE IN THOSE PLACES -- but that's where the reporters go to do interviews.  They don't get on a plane to fly to Springfield, MO.  Or to Lincoln, Nebraska.  Or to Colorado Springs, CO.  Or to Des Moines, Iowa.

Bloomberg is in NYC.  So their reporters drive to some NYC suburb and reports a boom, because, you see, NYC is normal in their mindset and all those other places are not normal, even if all those other places add up to 10X NYC's population.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 20:53 | 4688725 hankwil74
hankwil74's picture

The population of the NYC, San Fran/San Jose, Los Angeles and Miami metro areas (the 4 largest cities in the areas you mentioned) combined is 43.5 million people.  Lincoln, Nebraska is 240k people.  Who gives a shit about Lincoln, Nebraska?  Des Moines? 205k.  Who cares?  The entire midwest will be a desert in 70 years when the Ogallala aquifer runs out.  

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 11:58 | 4686770 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I guess the same could be said for the MSM teleprompter readers too.  Journalists are a dead breed.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:42 | 4686443 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Oh that was my bad.  Didn't know it was my turn to put a "For Sale" sign in my front yard.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:17 | 4686342 Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

VIX < 1

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:20 | 4686357 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

This really is strange. On the ground, it looks like construction is picking up. I see developments with houses priced in $500K+ range starting to sprout up a lot. Are these Chinese owned luxury rentals that are being built with cash?

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:28 | 4686384 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Yes they are Chinese owned - anchor baby farms.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:26 | 4686378 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Get over it, in central planning economic data do not matter anymore.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:10 | 4686314 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Get to work Mr. Chairman.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:10 | 4686316 MeMongo
MeMongo's picture

Man! These charts out this morning are uglier than that hoetoe conchita wurst!

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:11 | 4686317 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

stealth qe can fix this

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:11 | 4686318 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Almost time to unleash some sort of Fed bullshit for housing.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:11 | 4686319 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

She's a brick house ..mighty mighty ...just lettin' it all hang out!

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:20 | 4686337 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

might as well post shit that has nothing to do with this ongoing shit show...hilarious mate...

cheers....

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:20 | 4686353 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

'The lady's stacked and that's a fact, ain't holding nothing back!'

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:35 | 4686418 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

"B -i- n-g - o,

and Bingo was his name "O"...."

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:38 | 4686425 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

'She's the one, the only one, ... built like an amazon.'

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:40 | 4686436 F.A. Hayek
F.A. Hayek's picture

Sure, but how many pancakes does it take to shingle an elephant?

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:47 | 4686449 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

'The clothes she wears, the sexy ways, makes an old man wish for younger days.'

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5EmnQp3V48&feature=player_embedded

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 14:42 | 4687356 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Speaking of shingles, the cost for just one square (10' by 10') of standard grade shingles (like IKO) is now about $90 to $100.

That doesn't include installation costs.

This same square was approx $70 to $75 in 2010 to early 2011ish.

That's just one example of building material costs rising 30% in the last 3 years, despite new construction being at 1960s levels (and off a peak of 2,200,000 units built in 2006 to 400,000 to 450,000ish today).

And shingles, whose main constituent production input cost is the price of a barrel of oil, are now 35% more expensive with oil @ 102/barrel than they were when oil was @ 140/barrel in 2007.

That's just shingles; Lumber, sheetrock, CONCRETE, brick, insulation, nail/fastener, OSB, window, etc. prices have all similarly risen, more or less, in that same time frame, despite there being a literal 25% of the new construction vs 2006.

It's so distorted that Georgia Pacific, Weyerhaeuser, USG, etc., closed many sheetrock, OSB, shingle, insulation making facilities to try and boost per unit margins (which meant layoffs and closed manufacturing facilities).

Do you see how the Federal Reserve-Wall Street Commodity/Financialization-Industry Racketeering Visible Hand screws up price equilibrium, and sets us up for massively distorted economic disequilibrium that leads to the next CRASH?

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:12 | 4686322 Took Red Pill
Took Red Pill's picture

It's because of the weather

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:12 | 4686324 Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

And still the crooks will not change course and continue to attack normal US citizens. And those citizens will, bend over, take up the arse, and say nothing

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:13 | 4686325 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Fed created 30 trillion new debt and all I got was this lousy greatest depression!

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:14 | 4686329 SpasticGramps
SpasticGramps's picture

If you like your depreciating asset, you can keep your depreciating asset.

 

Asses.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:16 | 4686336 F.A. Hayek
F.A. Hayek's picture

What we need now is an Affordable Housing Czar and a Non-Conforming Home Loan Czar

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:20 | 4686355 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Hey. I am the Tsar of all things pointless, so considering those are two pointless endeavors, they fall under my jurisdiction.

My motto: If it's pointless, then I'm your Tsar!

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:31 | 4686397 F.A. Hayek
F.A. Hayek's picture

This is good, please continue forward. And don't forget to not pay your taxes, you could be nominated for an ambassadorship and a nobel peace prize.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:52 | 4686478 codecode
codecode's picture

and most likely a bonus too...

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:17 | 4686340 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

"Missed it by that much."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPwrodxghrw

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:17 | 4686341 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

And these are annualized rates, right?  So divide by 600 and see how many the average state had.

 

Not very impressive at all.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:18 | 4686343 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Housing is a LIABILITY. NOT AN ASSET. 

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:35 | 4686417 F.A. Hayek
F.A. Hayek's picture

+1000. I've already mentally written off my 1 bedroom hovel, it's the prudent way to look at housing.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:18 | 4686344 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Open the borders!

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:18 | 4686345 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Housing bubble is no longer needed now that we have the forced healthcare bubble.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:19 | 4686350 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

We close green unless WWIII breaks out today.  These 'markets' are a joke.  After 6 straight days of BS gains, a complete collapse of home sales and we break a measely 4.0 in the USD/JPY/SPY?  Give me a fucking break.  PPT ain't having no down days when the Prez is on his Asian vacation.   

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:19 | 4686351 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

In the continuing saga of me fighting the banks re: foreclosure...

After the last round where I asked for sanctions against the plaintiff and their attorney, for submitting a forged document, the note with NO indorsement, the attorney firm wants to...withdraw! I said no, I oppose the motion to substitute attys until we find out about the sanctions for fraud upon the court. Have not heard the final answer/reply from the attys regarding my opposition to motion. 

I KNEW they put in a forged doc and challenged them. Think I have been heard in court? Ummm...no. They know they are fucked. I KNOW (thanks ZH ) that banksters are fucking idiots and they hire complete stooges for attys. I am doing this pro se. 

Yes, I am a deadbeat living in my house for taxes, upkeep and insurance costs only. 

Big banks are criminal outfits...but we all know that. Too bad more people don't fight.

Stacking lead and fuck the FED. 

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:23 | 4686372 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

Bravo my good sir!! And good luck to you.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:32 | 4686395 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

+1!

 

Don't be shocked (shocked!) when the Judge lets the attorneys out (it all a big club don't you know) when they throw the bank under the bus.

 

Because that's what attorneys do when it comes down to being caught with forged documents - throw the client to the wolves by claiming that the client provided the document to the attorney and LIED to said attorney! Poor guy, being lied to by his client. (wink wink)

 

Seen it too many times to count. The client is always the one under the judicial wheels, not the attorneys. (Unless said attorney has stolen client trust funds - that's about the only time attorneys catch shit)

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 12:11 | 4686816 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

In this case I warned the plaintiff's atty that I would ask for sanctions if they submitted forged documents. 

This is not for the feint of heart. I like attacking banksters. 

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:32 | 4686404 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Awesome. I wish more people , especially here at ZeroHedge, would understand this. 

 

I fought them or pro se, as well.....mainly because no fucking lawyers, were willing to help me.....when was the last time a lawyer wasn't willing to make money.....that should tell everyone here, all they need to know !!!!!

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:45 | 4686448 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

give them hell...

 

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:46 | 4686454 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Ban K, keep up the fight. I am in a somewhat similar situation. Been in FC for four years, countersued a year ago (those pesky SOLs, you know), all pro se. Have them tied up in knots on various fronts, but they and I both know there's a bogus assignment in there.

Here in NY, the courts issued a rule whereby the attorneys must verify the veracity of all documents, so the attorneys s are running scared and will not proceed on the FC.

Wondering where you are; will send a relationship request. Maybe we can compare notes.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 11:02 | 4686531 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

New Mexico...where police shoot first and then cover up!  Sure. will share what is going on. 

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 13:14 | 4687050 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

BanKKiller,

 

I am thinking of doing pro se myself. Have been fighting these fucks for 2 years. Any info shared would be appreciated. They wont show the note outside of court ..to the judge only? They dont have shit. How do you force the issue?

 

RIPS

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:20 | 4686356 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

BTFD! about to green.......again

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:47 | 4686463 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

3...2...1 and DJIA green!

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:22 | 4686364 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

Can be explained by severe weather conditions. Clearly.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:25 | 4686377 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

The recovery continues at a blistering pace.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:28 | 4686385 F.A. Hayek
F.A. Hayek's picture

Time for a press conference. Herd up as many indigent, under-employed, health-care-deprived, government assistance loving gimps as you can find.

And if you don't like it, you're a fucking racist.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:57 | 4686505 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

You forgot transgendered!

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 11:07 | 4686552 F.A. Hayek
F.A. Hayek's picture

Crap - transgendered with narcolepsy. My bad.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:29 | 4686388 Spungo
Spungo's picture

Why is our plan to jack up the stock market not working? Wouldn't soaring stock prices cause people to sell their stock and buy consumer goods? It's almost like people are hoarding stock because they think it never goes down and are willing to put their old house as collateral to buy more.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:34 | 4686414 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Most people that own stock, don't need to sell their stock in order to buy what they want. Those who did need to (non-elite retirees) sold in the last crash. Can't have your retirement funds in a market that can fall by half in 15 months when you will be needing that cash now.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 11:26 | 4686641 hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

the majority of stock is held by the rich elite.  Not many average people have much if any stock at all.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:31 | 4686398 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Only about 1 in 4 people that should qualify for a mortgage actually do get approved for a mortgage, at least according to the mortgage brokers that I know. 

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:56 | 4686403 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Don't worry! The Fed will clear all of that shitty debt off the banks' books, meaning you can look forward to higher taxes !  Enjoy paying off the same debt twice in a house that is worth half as much, that you still don't yet own!  Better yet, just wait and see what happens when interest rates go up!

Dont worry! You'll be so busy paying off all of that shit, that you'll have no money to spend in the economy.  You, and millions like you, will be like a stone weighing down any economic recovery.  But, don't feel bad.  With $17 trillion dollars of debt sloshing about in DC, your own contribution to negative growth will seem like a drop in the ocean.

Don't worry! There is no possible way for the US to unfuck itself now.  The country is about to implode.  But, maybe, just maybe, there will be a debt jubilee.  So perhaps you don't have to worry after all!  Hooray!

 

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 11:24 | 4686633 hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

Just stop paying your mortgage and stay in your house. When the whole thing implodes the banks will fall to dust and the banksters will take their loot and bail. Free houses for everyone.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:33 | 4686411 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

Bring back the N.I.N.J.A.'s!

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:40 | 4686434 drchris
drchris's picture

There is a typo:

"Deutsche's Joe Lavorgna"

I'm pretty sure you mean Douche Joe Lavorgna.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:48 | 4686464 Zest
Zest's picture

Haven't you heard? It's because of the weather.

 

/sarc

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:54 | 4686487 youngman
youngman's picture

You can bet the local governments...States will be raising taxes on your house to pay for their lavish salaries and pensions....its all they can do..they will never cut that expense...it should drop the value of a house because of the costs involved...

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:56 | 4686501 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

Change You Can Believe In!

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 11:20 | 4686619 hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

You're half right.  They won't raise taxes because the people will scream. So, they'll hire more ticket writing cops.  Same thing.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:59 | 4686508 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

A minor point: In my work, with a regretably limited number of data points, just as the "expert" projections here, we prefer to use a student's t ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student%27s_t-distribution ) distribution instead of a normal.  I believe you'll find that the housing data point would not be 7 sigma from the mean of this distribution.  Still, the point that the so called "experts" are either poorly informed, biased, or just plain stupid is taken.  I think it would be interesting to find out the proportion of these three causes of estimating error.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:59 | 4686517 SillyWabbits
SillyWabbits's picture

Housing is truly the land of the “greater fool theory” writ large.  Every home for sale today is mortgaged to the hilt … even if it is 50 years old.  The refi, reverse mortgage, adjustable mortgage (pick your poison) resets are sitting at the top of their MEW limits.

 

The selling price of the home is the price some savvy real estate person was able to extract over the last 5 years or so.  The foreclosure starts to foreclosure closers, leaves a zombie home graveyard where lowering the price is not an option, and anyone smart enough to have $100,000.00  to invest in a home: won’t bite.

 

How long these sit on the “market” is determined by how long the “mark to market” reality can be avoided.  When the 3d printer can print a  house, the market will normalize with the FED’s printing press.   Until then, any house purchased today will lose at least 30% within a year and never appreciate to an equity position in our lifetime.

 

Only buy foreclosures!

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 11:19 | 4686605 hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

I think we need to foreclose on the banks.  

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 11:40 | 4686707 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

I would agree you need to buy at a low price, but people today can buy cheaper than they can rent in many markets due to the repressed interest rates. There is a better floor under housing prices today than in 2006-09. The future problem is repressed interest rates will not be repressed forevever. 

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 11:15 | 4686587 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

It's simply Unpossible for house prices to drop...my realtor said so.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 11:17 | 4686595 hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

Refrigerator box sales are soaring.  Rent under bridges is rising. Supermarket Strollers are hot items.  No more free money for the banksters.  If it's not free they can't figure out how to make a profit. If they can't steal it then it's not good business.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 12:31 | 4686884 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

What we need is a new Obama stimulus plan:  "Hosed for Housing".  It will be just like "Cash for Clunkers".

The friendly folks from HUD.gov will just stop by your house with heavy equipment and rip it down.  Then they'll hand you a check for $4,000 so you can go out and buy a new house. 

 

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 12:41 | 4686929 SystemOfaDrown
SystemOfaDrown's picture

Calm down people! We all know why.
"Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow...."

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 14:22 | 4687339 Never_Put_Down
Never_Put_Down's picture

A war will straighten things out

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!