• Monetary Metals
    05/02/2016 - 01:28
    The price of gold shot up this week, and silver moved proportionally. Headlines are screaming for gold to hit $10,000 or $50,000. Does this alleged new bull market have legs?

New Home Sales Collapse To 8 Month Lows

Tyler Durden's picture




 

New Home Sales collapsed 14.5% month-over-month to its lowest since July 2013. A mere 384k versus 450k expectations is the biggest miss since July. So much for the Spring buying season... This is a 7 standard deviation miss against the smart economists' estimates! Whocouldanode that when the free-money sponsored fast money leaves the game that real people with real debt and real wages are simply priced out of buying a new home? Supply of unsold new homes jumps to 6 months, its highest since Oct 2011 (as once again the visible hand's interference has produced yet another mal-investment boom as the 'if we build it, they will come' builders face an ugly reality).

 

 

The Economists nailed it... (Deutsche's Joe Lavorgna was above consensus at 460k)

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:10 | 4686312 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

bullish....Dow 33,0000

NasCrap 50,000...

Gold $35...

Silver Free....

 

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:15 | 4686331 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Who could have ever seen this coming?

 

Oh.. /sarc

 

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:16 | 4686338 So Close
So Close's picture

Was listening to report on same on the radio yesterday.  Announcer said it was beacuse of "lack of available inventory."  Nothing to buy.  Fucking liars.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:19 | 4686349 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Lol... There's plenty of inventory around here.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:29 | 4686389 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

Headline says "Collapse".  Drink!

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 11:28 | 4686649 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Here.  You don't need a headline:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=7iv

 

That's 1960s level of sales, with 60 million more people in the country.

Still object to "collapse"?

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:30 | 4686392 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

There's only a lack of inventory at a "we're going to basically steal this house from you" price.  That's where the market wants to be, but nobody who owns one is willing to take the hit.  So they linger and linger and linger.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 11:11 | 4686573 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Unless 'they' revive the zero-down, subprime, no-doc, NINJA mortgages, the housing market may actually correct.

Reversion to the mean. That would be mean.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:21 | 4686352 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Funny I can drive my Neighborhood and count 20 homes for sale that have been available for nearly a year lol...fucking liars for sure. Then again you can't blame the ACTORS they are only reading the script they receive.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:21 | 4686362 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Well, yeah, those aren't new. LOL. And the band played on...

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 11:46 | 4686725 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"new construction" is the market.

PERIOD.

New construction means "Teslas in every driveway."

New construction means Solar Cities.

Everything else is just a so called asset getting depreciated to ZERO and can...and WILL...but had...FOR ONE DOLLAR.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:56 | 4686499 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Sadly I don't live where you do. My daughter is trying to buy near us. Houses are still selling the day after they come on the market. Sometimes they aren't much over asking though so there is hope. Bay Area is the last holdout in the country maybe? Fingers crossed.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 11:35 | 4686683 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

EVERY SINGLE HOUSING THREAD . . . you get 30 ZHers talking about houses for sale for years and not moving in their area.

Then you get one guy in 1 tiny segment of one county who says it's booming.  Or that's extreme.  Maybe 3 tiny segments of 3 counties (NY, Calif, FL).

But you know what? MOST PEOPLE DON'T LIVE IN THOSE PLACES -- but that's where the reporters go to do interviews.  They don't get on a plane to fly to Springfield, MO.  Or to Lincoln, Nebraska.  Or to Colorado Springs, CO.  Or to Des Moines, Iowa.

Bloomberg is in NYC.  So their reporters drive to some NYC suburb and reports a boom, because, you see, NYC is normal in their mindset and all those other places are not normal, even if all those other places add up to 10X NYC's population.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 20:53 | 4688725 hankwil74
hankwil74's picture

The population of the NYC, San Fran/San Jose, Los Angeles and Miami metro areas (the 4 largest cities in the areas you mentioned) combined is 43.5 million people.  Lincoln, Nebraska is 240k people.  Who gives a shit about Lincoln, Nebraska?  Des Moines? 205k.  Who cares?  The entire midwest will be a desert in 70 years when the Ogallala aquifer runs out.  

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 11:58 | 4686770 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I guess the same could be said for the MSM teleprompter readers too.  Journalists are a dead breed.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:42 | 4686443 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Oh that was my bad.  Didn't know it was my turn to put a "For Sale" sign in my front yard.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:17 | 4686342 Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

VIX < 1

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:20 | 4686357 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

This really is strange. On the ground, it looks like construction is picking up. I see developments with houses priced in $500K+ range starting to sprout up a lot. Are these Chinese owned luxury rentals that are being built with cash?

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:28 | 4686384 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Yes they are Chinese owned - anchor baby farms.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:26 | 4686378 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Get over it, in central planning economic data do not matter anymore.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:10 | 4686314 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Get to work Mr. Chairman.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:10 | 4686316 MeMongo
MeMongo's picture

Man! These charts out this morning are uglier than that hoetoe conchita wurst!

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:11 | 4686317 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

stealth qe can fix this

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:11 | 4686318 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Almost time to unleash some sort of Fed bullshit for housing.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:11 | 4686319 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

She's a brick house ..mighty mighty ...just lettin' it all hang out!

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:20 | 4686337 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

might as well post shit that has nothing to do with this ongoing shit show...hilarious mate...

cheers....

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:20 | 4686353 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

'The lady's stacked and that's a fact, ain't holding nothing back!'

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:35 | 4686418 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

"B -i- n-g - o,

and Bingo was his name "O"...."

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:38 | 4686425 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

'She's the one, the only one, ... built like an amazon.'

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:40 | 4686436 F.A. Hayek
F.A. Hayek's picture

Sure, but how many pancakes does it take to shingle an elephant?

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:47 | 4686449 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

'The clothes she wears, the sexy ways, makes an old man wish for younger days.'

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5EmnQp3V48&feature=player_embedded

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 14:42 | 4687356 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Speaking of shingles, the cost for just one square (10' by 10') of standard grade shingles (like IKO) is now about $90 to $100.

That doesn't include installation costs.

This same square was approx $70 to $75 in 2010 to early 2011ish.

That's just one example of building material costs rising 30% in the last 3 years, despite new construction being at 1960s levels (and off a peak of 2,200,000 units built in 2006 to 400,000 to 450,000ish today).

And shingles, whose main constituent production input cost is the price of a barrel of oil, are now 35% more expensive with oil @ 102/barrel than they were when oil was @ 140/barrel in 2007.

That's just shingles; Lumber, sheetrock, CONCRETE, brick, insulation, nail/fastener, OSB, window, etc. prices have all similarly risen, more or less, in that same time frame, despite there being a literal 25% of the new construction vs 2006.

It's so distorted that Georgia Pacific, Weyerhaeuser, USG, etc., closed many sheetrock, OSB, shingle, insulation making facilities to try and boost per unit margins (which meant layoffs and closed manufacturing facilities).

Do you see how the Federal Reserve-Wall Street Commodity/Financialization-Industry Racketeering Visible Hand screws up price equilibrium, and sets us up for massively distorted economic disequilibrium that leads to the next CRASH?

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:12 | 4686322 Took Red Pill
Took Red Pill's picture

It's because of the weather

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:12 | 4686324 Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

And still the crooks will not change course and continue to attack normal US citizens. And those citizens will, bend over, take up the arse, and say nothing

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:13 | 4686325 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Fed created 30 trillion new debt and all I got was this lousy greatest depression!

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:14 | 4686329 SpasticGramps
SpasticGramps's picture

If you like your depreciating asset, you can keep your depreciating asset.

 

Asses.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:16 | 4686336 F.A. Hayek
F.A. Hayek's picture

What we need now is an Affordable Housing Czar and a Non-Conforming Home Loan Czar

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:20 | 4686355 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Hey. I am the Tsar of all things pointless, so considering those are two pointless endeavors, they fall under my jurisdiction.

My motto: If it's pointless, then I'm your Tsar!

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:31 | 4686397 F.A. Hayek
F.A. Hayek's picture

This is good, please continue forward. And don't forget to not pay your taxes, you could be nominated for an ambassadorship and a nobel peace prize.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:52 | 4686478 codecode
codecode's picture

and most likely a bonus too...

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:17 | 4686340 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

"Missed it by that much."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPwrodxghrw

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:17 | 4686341 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

And these are annualized rates, right?  So divide by 600 and see how many the average state had.

 

Not very impressive at all.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:18 | 4686343 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Housing is a LIABILITY. NOT AN ASSET. 

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:35 | 4686417 F.A. Hayek
F.A. Hayek's picture

+1000. I've already mentally written off my 1 bedroom hovel, it's the prudent way to look at housing.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:18 | 4686344 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Open the borders!

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:18 | 4686345 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Housing bubble is no longer needed now that we have the forced healthcare bubble.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:19 | 4686350 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

We close green unless WWIII breaks out today.  These 'markets' are a joke.  After 6 straight days of BS gains, a complete collapse of home sales and we break a measely 4.0 in the USD/JPY/SPY?  Give me a fucking break.  PPT ain't having no down days when the Prez is on his Asian vacation.   

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:19 | 4686351 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

In the continuing saga of me fighting the banks re: foreclosure...

After the last round where I asked for sanctions against the plaintiff and their attorney, for submitting a forged document, the note with NO indorsement, the attorney firm wants to...withdraw! I said no, I oppose the motion to substitute attys until we find out about the sanctions for fraud upon the court. Have not heard the final answer/reply from the attys regarding my opposition to motion. 

I KNEW they put in a forged doc and challenged them. Think I have been heard in court? Ummm...no. They know they are fucked. I KNOW (thanks ZH ) that banksters are fucking idiots and they hire complete stooges for attys. I am doing this pro se. 

Yes, I am a deadbeat living in my house for taxes, upkeep and insurance costs only. 

Big banks are criminal outfits...but we all know that. Too bad more people don't fight.

Stacking lead and fuck the FED. 

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:23 | 4686372 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

Bravo my good sir!! And good luck to you.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:32 | 4686395 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

+1!

 

Don't be shocked (shocked!) when the Judge lets the attorneys out (it all a big club don't you know) when they throw the bank under the bus.

 

Because that's what attorneys do when it comes down to being caught with forged documents - throw the client to the wolves by claiming that the client provided the document to the attorney and LIED to said attorney! Poor guy, being lied to by his client. (wink wink)

 

Seen it too many times to count. The client is always the one under the judicial wheels, not the attorneys. (Unless said attorney has stolen client trust funds - that's about the only time attorneys catch shit)

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