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New Home Sales Collapse To 8 Month Lows
New Home Sales collapsed 14.5% month-over-month to its lowest since July 2013. A mere 384k versus 450k expectations is the biggest miss since July. So much for the Spring buying season... This is a 7 standard deviation miss against the smart economists' estimates! Whocouldanode that when the free-money sponsored fast money leaves the game that real people with real debt and real wages are simply priced out of buying a new home? Supply of unsold new homes jumps to 6 months, its highest since Oct 2011 (as once again the visible hand's interference has produced yet another mal-investment boom as the 'if we build it, they will come' builders face an ugly reality).
The Economists nailed it... (Deutsche's Joe Lavorgna was above consensus at 460k)
Charts: Bloomberg
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bullish....Dow 33,0000
NasCrap 50,000...
Gold $35...
Silver Free....
Who could have ever seen this coming?
Oh.. /sarc
Was listening to report on same on the radio yesterday. Announcer said it was beacuse of "lack of available inventory." Nothing to buy. Fucking liars.
Lol... There's plenty of inventory around here.
Headline says "Collapse". Drink!
Here. You don't need a headline:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=7iv
That's 1960s level of sales, with 60 million more people in the country.
Still object to "collapse"?
There's only a lack of inventory at a "we're going to basically steal this house from you" price. That's where the market wants to be, but nobody who owns one is willing to take the hit. So they linger and linger and linger.
Unless 'they' revive the zero-down, subprime, no-doc, NINJA mortgages, the housing market may actually correct.
Reversion to the mean. That would be mean.
Funny I can drive my Neighborhood and count 20 homes for sale that have been available for nearly a year lol...fucking liars for sure. Then again you can't blame the ACTORS they are only reading the script they receive.
Well, yeah, those aren't new. LOL. And the band played on...
"new construction" is the market.
PERIOD.
New construction means "Teslas in every driveway."
New construction means Solar Cities.
Everything else is just a so called asset getting depreciated to ZERO and can...and WILL...but had...FOR ONE DOLLAR.
Sadly I don't live where you do. My daughter is trying to buy near us. Houses are still selling the day after they come on the market. Sometimes they aren't much over asking though so there is hope. Bay Area is the last holdout in the country maybe? Fingers crossed.
EVERY SINGLE HOUSING THREAD . . . you get 30 ZHers talking about houses for sale for years and not moving in their area.
Then you get one guy in 1 tiny segment of one county who says it's booming. Or that's extreme. Maybe 3 tiny segments of 3 counties (NY, Calif, FL).
But you know what? MOST PEOPLE DON'T LIVE IN THOSE PLACES -- but that's where the reporters go to do interviews. They don't get on a plane to fly to Springfield, MO. Or to Lincoln, Nebraska. Or to Colorado Springs, CO. Or to Des Moines, Iowa.
Bloomberg is in NYC. So their reporters drive to some NYC suburb and reports a boom, because, you see, NYC is normal in their mindset and all those other places are not normal, even if all those other places add up to 10X NYC's population.
The population of the NYC, San Fran/San Jose, Los Angeles and Miami metro areas (the 4 largest cities in the areas you mentioned) combined is 43.5 million people. Lincoln, Nebraska is 240k people. Who gives a shit about Lincoln, Nebraska? Des Moines? 205k. Who cares? The entire midwest will be a desert in 70 years when the Ogallala aquifer runs out.
I guess the same could be said for the MSM teleprompter readers too. Journalists are a dead breed.
Oh that was my bad. Didn't know it was my turn to put a "For Sale" sign in my front yard.
VIX < 1
This really is strange. On the ground, it looks like construction is picking up. I see developments with houses priced in $500K+ range starting to sprout up a lot. Are these Chinese owned luxury rentals that are being built with cash?
Yes they are Chinese owned - anchor baby farms.
Get over it, in central planning economic data do not matter anymore.
Get to work Mr. Chairman.
Man! These charts out this morning are uglier than that hoetoe conchita wurst!
stealth qe can fix this
Almost time to unleash some sort of Fed bullshit for housing.
She's a brick house ..mighty mighty ...just lettin' it all hang out!
might as well post shit that has nothing to do with this ongoing shit show...hilarious mate...
cheers....
'The lady's stacked and that's a fact, ain't holding nothing back!'
"B -i- n-g - o,
and Bingo was his name "O"...."
'She's the one, the only one, ... built like an amazon.'
Sure, but how many pancakes does it take to shingle an elephant?
'The clothes she wears, the sexy ways, makes an old man wish for younger days.'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5EmnQp3V48&feature=player_embedded
Speaking of shingles, the cost for just one square (10' by 10') of standard grade shingles (like IKO) is now about $90 to $100.
That doesn't include installation costs.
This same square was approx $70 to $75 in 2010 to early 2011ish.
That's just one example of building material costs rising 30% in the last 3 years, despite new construction being at 1960s levels (and off a peak of 2,200,000 units built in 2006 to 400,000 to 450,000ish today).
And shingles, whose main constituent production input cost is the price of a barrel of oil, are now 35% more expensive with oil @ 102/barrel than they were when oil was @ 140/barrel in 2007.
That's just shingles; Lumber, sheetrock, CONCRETE, brick, insulation, nail/fastener, OSB, window, etc. prices have all similarly risen, more or less, in that same time frame, despite there being a literal 25% of the new construction vs 2006.
It's so distorted that Georgia Pacific, Weyerhaeuser, USG, etc., closed many sheetrock, OSB, shingle, insulation making facilities to try and boost per unit margins (which meant layoffs and closed manufacturing facilities).
Do you see how the Federal Reserve-Wall Street Commodity/Financialization-Industry Racketeering Visible Hand screws up price equilibrium, and sets us up for massively distorted economic disequilibrium that leads to the next CRASH?
It's because of the weather
And still the crooks will not change course and continue to attack normal US citizens. And those citizens will, bend over, take up the arse, and say nothing
Fed created 30 trillion new debt and all I got was this lousy greatest depression!
If you like your depreciating asset, you can keep your depreciating asset.
Asses.
What we need now is an Affordable Housing Czar and a Non-Conforming Home Loan Czar
Hey. I am the Tsar of all things pointless, so considering those are two pointless endeavors, they fall under my jurisdiction.
My motto: If it's pointless, then I'm your Tsar!
This is good, please continue forward. And don't forget to not pay your taxes, you could be nominated for an ambassadorship and a nobel peace prize.
and most likely a bonus too...
"Missed it by that much."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPwrodxghrw
And these are annualized rates, right? So divide by 600 and see how many the average state had.
Not very impressive at all.
Housing is a LIABILITY. NOT AN ASSET.
+1000. I've already mentally written off my 1 bedroom hovel, it's the prudent way to look at housing.
Open the borders!
Housing bubble is no longer needed now that we have the forced healthcare bubble.
We close green unless WWIII breaks out today. These 'markets' are a joke. After 6 straight days of BS gains, a complete collapse of home sales and we break a measely 4.0 in the USD/JPY/SPY? Give me a fucking break. PPT ain't having no down days when the Prez is on his Asian vacation.
In the continuing saga of me fighting the banks re: foreclosure...
After the last round where I asked for sanctions against the plaintiff and their attorney, for submitting a forged document, the note with NO indorsement, the attorney firm wants to...withdraw! I said no, I oppose the motion to substitute attys until we find out about the sanctions for fraud upon the court. Have not heard the final answer/reply from the attys regarding my opposition to motion.
I KNEW they put in a forged doc and challenged them. Think I have been heard in court? Ummm...no. They know they are fucked. I KNOW (thanks ZH ) that banksters are fucking idiots and they hire complete stooges for attys. I am doing this pro se.
Yes, I am a deadbeat living in my house for taxes, upkeep and insurance costs only.
Big banks are criminal outfits...but we all know that. Too bad more people don't fight.
Stacking lead and fuck the FED.
Bravo my good sir!! And good luck to you.
+1!
Don't be shocked (shocked!) when the Judge lets the attorneys out (it all a big club don't you know) when they throw the bank under the bus.
Because that's what attorneys do when it comes down to being caught with forged documents - throw the client to the wolves by claiming that the client provided the document to the attorney and LIED to said attorney! Poor guy, being lied to by his client. (wink wink)
Seen it too many times to count. The client is always the one under the judicial wheels, not the attorneys. (Unless said attorney has stolen client trust funds - that's about the only time attorneys catch shit)
In this case I warned the plaintiff's atty that I would ask for sanctions if they submitted forged documents.
This is not for the feint of heart. I like attacking banksters.
Awesome. I wish more people , especially here at ZeroHedge, would understand this.
I fought them or pro se, as well.....mainly because no fucking lawyers, were willing to help me.....when was the last time a lawyer wasn't willing to make money.....that should tell everyone here, all they need to know !!!!!
give them hell...
Ban K, keep up the fight. I am in a somewhat similar situation. Been in FC for four years, countersued a year ago (those pesky SOLs, you know), all pro se. Have them tied up in knots on various fronts, but they and I both know there's a bogus assignment in there.
Here in NY, the courts issued a rule whereby the attorneys must verify the veracity of all documents, so the attorneys s are running scared and will not proceed on the FC.
Wondering where you are; will send a relationship request. Maybe we can compare notes.
New Mexico...where police shoot first and then cover up! Sure. will share what is going on.
BanKKiller,
I am thinking of doing pro se myself. Have been fighting these fucks for 2 years. Any info shared would be appreciated. They wont show the note outside of court ..to the judge only? They dont have shit. How do you force the issue?
RIPS
BTFD! about to green.......again
3...2...1 and DJIA green!
Can be explained by severe weather conditions. Clearly.
The recovery continues at a blistering pace.
Time for a press conference. Herd up as many indigent, under-employed, health-care-deprived, government assistance loving gimps as you can find.
And if you don't like it, you're a fucking racist.
You forgot transgendered!
Crap - transgendered with narcolepsy. My bad.
Why is our plan to jack up the stock market not working? Wouldn't soaring stock prices cause people to sell their stock and buy consumer goods? It's almost like people are hoarding stock because they think it never goes down and are willing to put their old house as collateral to buy more.
Most people that own stock, don't need to sell their stock in order to buy what they want. Those who did need to (non-elite retirees) sold in the last crash. Can't have your retirement funds in a market that can fall by half in 15 months when you will be needing that cash now.
the majority of stock is held by the rich elite. Not many average people have much if any stock at all.
Only about 1 in 4 people that should qualify for a mortgage actually do get approved for a mortgage, at least according to the mortgage brokers that I know.
Don't worry! The Fed will clear all of that shitty debt off the banks' books, meaning you can look forward to higher taxes ! Enjoy paying off the same debt twice in a house that is worth half as much, that you still don't yet own! Better yet, just wait and see what happens when interest rates go up!
Dont worry! You'll be so busy paying off all of that shit, that you'll have no money to spend in the economy. You, and millions like you, will be like a stone weighing down any economic recovery. But, don't feel bad. With $17 trillion dollars of debt sloshing about in DC, your own contribution to negative growth will seem like a drop in the ocean.
Don't worry! There is no possible way for the US to unfuck itself now. The country is about to implode. But, maybe, just maybe, there will be a debt jubilee. So perhaps you don't have to worry after all! Hooray!
Just stop paying your mortgage and stay in your house. When the whole thing implodes the banks will fall to dust and the banksters will take their loot and bail. Free houses for everyone.
Bring back the N.I.N.J.A.'s!
There is a typo:
"Deutsche's Joe Lavorgna"
I'm pretty sure you mean Douche Joe Lavorgna.
Haven't you heard? It's because of the weather.
/sarc
You can bet the local governments...States will be raising taxes on your house to pay for their lavish salaries and pensions....its all they can do..they will never cut that expense...it should drop the value of a house because of the costs involved...
Change You Can Believe In!
You're half right. They won't raise taxes because the people will scream. So, they'll hire more ticket writing cops. Same thing.
A minor point: In my work, with a regretably limited number of data points, just as the "expert" projections here, we prefer to use a student's t ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student%27s_t-distribution ) distribution instead of a normal. I believe you'll find that the housing data point would not be 7 sigma from the mean of this distribution. Still, the point that the so called "experts" are either poorly informed, biased, or just plain stupid is taken. I think it would be interesting to find out the proportion of these three causes of estimating error.
Housing is truly the land of the “greater fool theory” writ large. Every home for sale today is mortgaged to the hilt … even if it is 50 years old. The refi, reverse mortgage, adjustable mortgage (pick your poison) resets are sitting at the top of their MEW limits.
The selling price of the home is the price some savvy real estate person was able to extract over the last 5 years or so. The foreclosure starts to foreclosure closers, leaves a zombie home graveyard where lowering the price is not an option, and anyone smart enough to have $100,000.00 to invest in a home: won’t bite.
How long these sit on the “market” is determined by how long the “mark to market” reality can be avoided. When the 3d printer can print a house, the market will normalize with the FED’s printing press. Until then, any house purchased today will lose at least 30% within a year and never appreciate to an equity position in our lifetime.
Only buy foreclosures!
I think we need to foreclose on the banks.
I would agree you need to buy at a low price, but people today can buy cheaper than they can rent in many markets due to the repressed interest rates. There is a better floor under housing prices today than in 2006-09. The future problem is repressed interest rates will not be repressed forevever.
It's simply Unpossible for house prices to drop...my realtor said so.
Refrigerator box sales are soaring. Rent under bridges is rising. Supermarket Strollers are hot items. No more free money for the banksters. If it's not free they can't figure out how to make a profit. If they can't steal it then it's not good business.
What we need is a new Obama stimulus plan: "Hosed for Housing". It will be just like "Cash for Clunkers".
The friendly folks from HUD.gov will just stop by your house with heavy equipment and rip it down. Then they'll hand you a check for $4,000 so you can go out and buy a new house.
Calm down people! We all know why.
"Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow...."
A war will straighten things out