Durable Goods Beat On Surge In Boeing Orders, Capital Goods Orders Ahead Of Expectations

Tyler Durden's picture

It is oddly appropriate that moments after we reported that capex at Caterpillar (and virtually every other company we have looked at in detail) tumbled by 50% year over year, that the Census Bureau released the latest Durable Goods report. In it we find that unlike previous months, when headline durable goods tumbled because of "harsh weather" in March it apparently not only did it not snow (although the New Homes Sales report may have something to say about that) but the weather so so balmy, that the headline print came in stronger than the expected 2.0%, printing at 2.6%, up from a downward revised 2.1%. The bulk of the margin however was due to Boeing, which reported some 163 new aircraft orders, compared to 74 in February. 


Still, even when excluding volatile aircraft orders, the ex-transports number was a solid 2.0%, well above the 0.6% Wall Street had expeted.


So does this translate into actual Capex spending? Well, if one believes the Census Bureau, March capital goods orders non-defense aircraft rose 2.2% above the 1.5% expected, even if actual shipments printed precisely on top of the 1.0% expected.

The reason we say "if one believes" is because while according to government-level aggregate data, CapEx is rising, we have yet to see it in actual numbers. To be sure, once earnings season is completed we will be able to look at actual corporate level data and see if indeed CapEx is growing at the pace the government wants us to believe, or if, like the Fed when reporting loan-level data, it is simply goalseeking numbers that fit its narrative.

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Sudden Debt's picture

Productivity is at a all time high while FTE costs are at a all time low.

Maybe Obama should introduce a 1 hour working week without any loss of wage!

A bit like the Swiss, 4K a month jobs for scooping icecream in the Alps.

NotApplicable's picture

Behold the magic of aggregates!

Cursive's picture

Goalseeked?  C'mon, former Obama chief of staff John Daly just signed to be a "macroeconomic" (i.e. influence-peddler) advisor to a hedge fund and he says you're a cynical dumbass.

Monty Burns's picture

The hedge fund modus operandi, in fact the whole basis for their existance, is to capitalize on insider information to make their stakeholders billionaires. Daley's appointment makes perfect sense.  Pity the poor mom and pop trader  though.

Stoploss's picture

The gasoline numbers will fit into the narrative quite nicely..

Along with the oil numbers, and nat gas numbers, (once it is allowed to move again).

Recovery Bitchezzzz!!!

ptoemmes's picture

How many hammers equals a jet plane?

NoDebt's picture

Government hammers?  Like maybe five.

papaswamp's picture

This is the 'weather faux snap back' many called for only to see next months report decline, and the down turn begin in earnest. Only time will tell.

starman's picture

yeah wer'e gonna need moar airplanes do to airfares that have doubled in prices the past 5 years!