This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Martin Armstrong On War, Debt, And Putin's 2 Choices

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics blog,

The title of the next book that needs to be written is not War & Peace, but War and Debt. The interesting complexity of continually borrowing with no intention of ever paying anyone back is a totally modern development post-WWII. This has simply never been done before and governments have no clue what to do. They borrowed previously, but tended to pay back by raising taxes. At least there was some sense of obligation. Today, the national debts are just Ponzi Schemes where they issue new debt to pay off the old. This is one game of musical chairs.

Russia has raised its key interest rate to fight inflation as the rouble weakens in the face of war. These heads of states have been taught the lesson – this is no way to run a government. The key one-week minimum auction repo rate in Russia was increased by 50 basis points to 7.5 percent. There is no possible way for the Bank of Russia to lower the key rate in the coming months, especially since it raised its key rate by 150 bps in March in response to financial instability created by the political crisis in Ukraine.

Standard & Poor’s has cut Russia’s credit rating to BBB-minus, just one notch above junk – or non-investment – level. Moscow responded that politics had played a role in S&P’s decision. However, it was the first downgrade by a major agency following Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in March.

What Russia is suddenly discovering is what we have been basing our analysis upon – Capital outflows, The investment capital has been pouring out of Russia since its economy began to weaken last year, along with emerging markets in general. However, adding this tense geopolitical situation between Russia and the West over Ukraine, has produced a mass exodus of capital in the area of $64 billion for the first quarter 2014. This is introducing additional significant capital outflows of both foreign and domestic capital from the Russian economy. We see even Russian Oligarchs moving money to other based currencies and Putin has responded by increases their taxes.

This is a interesting conflict of the old way of empire building and the post-WWII way of always borrowing and never paying anything back. Both the United States and Europe have threatened harsher sanctions against Russia and Putin has responded by sending bombers over Europe to reminded them who they are dealing with.

The capital flight from Russia of about $64 (46 billion euros), will impact its economic growth slowing it down dramatically. Meanwhile, Russia’s central bank has spent billions of US dollars on trying keeping the rouble from falling too fast.

George 1778 Tory Confiscation Note - r

We are entering a completely new era in economics. (1) if countries perceive that their borrowings curtail their ambitions (thus we have a check and balance), however (2) if countries cannot borrow, then they may invade and revert to the old Conquest Model relying upon the spoils of war, which included the confiscation of assets belonging to an adversary. Pictured here is a Georgia note of 1778 backed by assets confiscated from people who supported King George III. The French confiscated the assets of the Catholic Church under Napoleon.

Either Putin backs down, or he asserts the same principles and is then forced to invade in short-order just to economically survive.


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sat, 04/26/2014 - 19:30 | 4699891 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Since Putin is KGB and NATO looks freaking weak and disorganized what ya think he's gonna do, Willis?

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 19:36 | 4699899 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

Putin is also well aware of the wussy in White House.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 19:38 | 4699903 Zest
Zest's picture

C'mon take it easy on the guy. He hasn't been to the golf course in over a week.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 19:52 | 4699924 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

Spoils of war?   What exactly could they loot from Ukaine that would make it worth the effort?

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:02 | 4699940 Seer
Seer's picture

Pipeline?  Like picking up tracks to lay down heading east...

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:17 | 4699971 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

"C'mon take it easy on the guy. He hasn't been to the golf course in over a week."


He'll be back out there once the cramps and bloating subside.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:30 | 4700000 macholatte
macholatte's picture

What exactly could they loot from Ukaine that would make it worth the effort?


Good point.  Russia is Ukraine’s largest trading partner. It is also the “highway” for getting goods/energy from Russia to EU.

However, Ukraine is the world's largest producer of sunflower oil, a major global producer of grain and sugar, and future global player on meat and dairy markets. It is also one of the largest producers of nuts. Ukraine also produces more natural honey than any other European country. Because Ukraine possesses 30% of the world's richest black soil, its agricultural industry has a huge potential. However, farmland remains the only major asset in Ukraine that is not privatized.

A lot of tourists from USA, European Union and Russia provide a sort of dental tourism.

So there you go.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 21:37 | 4700143 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

According to that article, they've got a space program.

That explains it, Zero wants their rocket scientists!

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 22:40 | 4700282 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Putin back down from Obama? You must be joking... Face to face all Putin would have to do is say boo and Barry would wet his pants... 



Sat, 04/26/2014 - 23:56 | 4700370 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

Even Jimmy "Goober Peas" Carter looks like a steely-eye hawk compared to Barry.

<sarc> This all by design though, you'll never be able drag the average backwards, freedom-obsessed, gun-toting American to the grand utopia of european-style global governance if they're are allowed to have any kind of competentcy or real integrity in the smooth-walled, monolithic cabal that masquerades as their "elected" (sic) representatives. I mean, get a grip... ;-)</sarc>

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 00:23 | 4700407 Tabarnaque
Tabarnaque's picture

This article is a pile of garbage. Just to confuse and drag people's attention away from the real issues underlying the Ukrainian crisis. May I recall that the Ukrainian crisis was entirely manufactures by the US State Department. Who was the agressor here? The USSA. Who funded neo nazis to implement a violent coup against a democratically elected government? The USSA. Who stole Ukrainian gold a few days after the violent coup succeded? The USSA again. Far from being Russia looking forward to invade and looth Ukrain, it is the USSA invading Ukraine to looth the country out of its natural gas and rich agricultural lands (Monsanto, Cargill and ADM are already preparing to take over the rich Ukrainian plains).   

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 01:32 | 4700486 Volkodav
Volkodav's picture

I agree...good post

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 19:44 | 4700742 philipat
philipat's picture

"The capital flight from Russia of about $64 (46 billion euros), "

I never realised that the Euro had devalued so badly if $64 is equal to 46 Billion EUR? Perhaps it will when the ECB joins the currenct wars and starts QE-ing. Yeh, Yeh, Yeh.....

I don't know about fellow ZH'ers but I find it very difficult to take Martin Armstrong seriously?? IMHO, he seems consumed by style and has no substance. Living on "Past Glories" IMHO.

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 01:39 | 4700492 W270
W270's picture

Correction Wet his Panties, Moochelle wears the pants in that Tribe

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 22:26 | 4700260 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Reestablishing Russia's old borders may be reason enough

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 09:07 | 4700842 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

If Putin takes over the Ukraine he gets Chernobyl back.  Whoopppeee.


Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:10 | 4699949 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Exactly. What's the author talking about ?  Russia is being threatened in their own back yard; the military threat to what they perceive as their vital interests is obvious.

These are the writings of a grocery clerk.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 22:07 | 4700119 Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

"if countries cannot borrow, then they may invade and revert to the old Conquest Model relying upon the spoils of war."

Alternately, if countries refuse to borrow they will be invaded, reduced to rubble and, as vassals, forced to borrow in the new Conquest Model.  Their goods (spoils) will be traded for paper money (beads) and their children will grow up under the all seeing, vengeful eye of the eagle. 

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 00:27 | 4700415 Tabarnaque
Tabarnaque's picture

The USA debt to GDP ratio is far higher that the Russian debt to GDP ratio. Who is the broke nation in the real world? The USSA are the ones broke with the Fed buying 75% of all new Treasury bond issued because nobody else wants to buy them.

Martin Armstrong is just a high level deceiver working for the power that be. This article is a piece of toxic trash. Surprised to see it on ZeroHedge.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 21:30 | 4700134 mr.lucky
mr.lucky's picture

Very symplistic writing about a very complex situation.  I'm not buying it. 

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 22:12 | 4700221 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

Who let this amateur in? I feel dirty after reading this tripe. Capital markets, debt, credit ratings.,,.Keynes? Is that you resurrected and writing BS articles?

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 23:40 | 4700345 Tulpa
Tulpa's picture

Ukraine is an independent country and is free to set its own policies and make its own friends.  I don't give a damn what Russians perceive about it, it's irrelevant.  Give them a teddy bear and a hug if they're upset.

I'm sick of this idiocy where the fact that Ukraine was under Russian domination for 200 years justifies putting them under the Russian boot again.  This from people who supposedly care about liberty.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 23:54 | 4700364 Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

This viewpoint disregards reality.  Ukraine is NOT an independent country and is NOT free to set its own policies and make its own friends  any more than any country in the Western hemisphere not named the United States is.  Look at a history of American intervention in South America if you disagree.  Look at Haiti.  

This understanding is important not just for accuracy, but for efficacy.  If you want to change the way things are in Haiti are you better served concentrating your efforts on the ground in Haiti, or where the levels of power actually reside? 

Want change in Ukraine?  Start saving your rubles.

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 00:16 | 4700389 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Russian boot..

Much better for them to be under the US and EU boot.

..besides, it would be a shame for Ukraine to lose the $10 Billion Chevron shale deal, or the Cargill deal that put $200M into UkrLand Farming, or the Cargill purchased stake in the Novorossiysk port.. all inked just before they changed their mind to go with the Rooskies,

So the $5 Billion that Nuland put into the NGO’s operating there had to be put to work to change things back.

That’s OUR show going on over there.. we are “The Producers".

The Corporate-Foreign Policy ‘Deep State’ at work in Ukraine

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 00:23 | 4700408 Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

There are multiple shows going on on multiple screens.  The Russians were always operating in Ukraine.  After the fall the West was content working incrementally for a time, but now they have upset the apple cart.  Overthrowing a government- even if it was a puppet government- creates a power vacuum.  Does the US even care who fills that vacuum as long as Russia is pulled into the ensuing chaos? 

US boots have done a lot of stomping in recent years.  When you say you would like to be under said boot are you saying you would like to be in Iraq? Afghanistan?  Libya? 

Prime locations are still available in Syria.  Cheap.

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 00:34 | 4700430 Tabarnaque
Tabarnaque's picture

Yeah, Corporate America (the real fascist power behind Obozo) is looking forward to looth Ukrainian natural resources away from them. Not to mention the TTIP "free trade agreement" which is nothing else than a US corporate power grab over the entire Western Europe, turning these vassal states into US dollar slaves for decades to come and giving a "divine" diplomatic immunity to US corporate interest on the entire continent.

The USSA boot ain't any paradise at all. I would hate to become a debt serf under the fascist regime of the Federal Reserve.

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 02:09 | 4700504 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Maybe my sarc was not obvious enough.

The legitimate government made a decision... we didn't like it and we violently took down the legitimate government.

It was a lousy government, but legitimate. We were wrong to do what we did.

I don’t know which government is lousier; the old Ukraine, the new Ukraine, Russia, the EU or the US.

It's kind of like asking which species of animal's feces are you most fond of.

I can’t say for sure, but the bear shit appears to have a slightly fuller bouquet.


Sun, 04/27/2014 - 00:15 | 4700393 Tulpa
Tulpa's picture

I guess you missed where Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Bolivia came out in support of Russia in the Crimean business. Yet surprisingly no American troops threatening their borders like Russia is doing with the Ukraine.

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 00:45 | 4700426 Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

America doesn't need to send troops into those countries.  Soft power + CIA = bonus enchilada.   How's Maduro doing with those riots by the by?  Any other leaders come down with cancer?  They should stop holding USAN meetings in Fukushima.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 23:58 | 4700374 Omegaman2211
Omegaman2211's picture

Not sure how that justifies a US led war against Russia, but ok.

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 01:22 | 4700480 Volkodav
Volkodav's picture

useless talkings


Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:09 | 4699954 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

Ukraine is the bread basket of Europe!

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:17 | 4699968 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

"Ukraine is the bread basket of Europe!"


Not if they radiate the shit out of it.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:28 | 4699994 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Toast basket?

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:32 | 4700007 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Bread basket case.

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 08:53 | 4700820 viator
viator's picture

"grains trade from the region, accounting for about a fifth of world exports"

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 13:05 | 4701181 praxis
praxis's picture

slave labor...

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 22:09 | 4700211 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

"C'mon take it easy on the guy. He hasn't been to the golf course in over a week."

What do you call a Mexican with a golf ball through his forehead?


A hole in Juan.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 23:28 | 4700333 hamstercheese
hamstercheese's picture

Two Mexicans playing basketball against each other? Juan on Juan.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 19:45 | 4699914 Seeking Aphids
Seeking Aphids's picture

So you, wee-wee, would prefer that Obama have a pissing contest with Pee-wee Putin to prove he is not a wuss? For that you would risk WWIII?   

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 19:50 | 4699919 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

It's one of those times that some of the posters here at ZH run into themselves.  First, it is irrelevant who is in the WH.  Second, there is no second.

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 11:37 | 4700246 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

It is epidemic here and represents a massive hole in their mindset and worldview.

You cannot say it is not important or that it can be compartmentalized.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 23:44 | 4700352 Tulpa
Tulpa's picture

Say what you will about Bush, but his handling of the Russia-Georgia conflict in 2008 and the Israel-Lebanon conflict before, was light-years wiser and more pragmatic than BO's random thrashing about here in 2014 w.r.t. Syria and Ukraine.  Think about that:  someone is stupider than George W Bush.  Hard to believe.  

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 01:28 | 4700467 Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

You think Bush handled those conflicts?  Like, personally?  Strategically?





The only thing I can say about Bush is that he was smart enough to keep his head down (sorry JFK) and stay to the script.  I dunno if Obama is so smart.

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 01:18 | 4700478 Volkodav
Volkodav's picture

I agree...someone is stupider than George W. Bush  


Nothing wise and pragmatic about enable that murderous tie-eating drug addict Saakashvilli with billions of taxpayer dollars to get people killed.

Most memorable was all the trash talk on the media after "Advisors" outran the Georgians back to Tblishi...




Sat, 04/26/2014 - 19:40 | 4699906 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Jesus.  How can an article like this appear, examining this and that of Russia, and in the whole damn thing there is no mention of oil at all.

What fucking morons.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 19:53 | 4699926 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

This is what happens when a country with oil and a giant military decides to say fuck it and not bow down to the United Bankers of America.  Saudi Arabia is so much easier to control, and invading Iraq only cost a few hundred thousand ordinary lives.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 22:45 | 4700292 Keyser
Keyser's picture

1,000,000+ Iraqis died in the two American wars there, not to mention the depleted uranium throughout the country that will reek havoc for decades. These fuckers want to kill billions. A million here and a million there and it starts to add up...

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 23:12 | 4700319 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Yep. And make everyone buy crappy health insurance so the cost doesn't fall on the state.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:14 | 4699964 BlackChicken
BlackChicken's picture

"The title of the next book that needs to be written is not War & Peace, but War and Debt."

A great book that has already been written is "War Cycles, Peace Cycles". One read through that and you will know exactly why the author was intensely vilified and marginalized.

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 00:59 | 4700458 Tabarnaque
Tabarnaque's picture

All Wars Are Bankers' Wars

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 05:30 | 4700639 Fractal Parasite
Fractal Parasite's picture

War Cycles, Peace Cycles, by Richard Kelly Hoskins

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 21:27 | 4700130 HungryPorkChop
HungryPorkChop's picture

Martin's stuff reads like popoganda and doesn't mention items like oil or gold.  I quit reading his stuff a long time ago.  Is he a shill, I don't know but he definitely leaves stuff out and looks more and more like the MSM proof reads everything before its released to the general public.  Maybe there's a reason it's FREE ??

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 22:29 | 4700266 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Maybe he learned it's better to play ball with TPTB than fight them....

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 01:01 | 4700461 Tabarnaque
Tabarnaque's picture

Well said HungryPorkChop

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 23:17 | 4700323 dirtscratcher
dirtscratcher's picture

Jesus.  How can an article like this appear, examining this and that of Russia, and in the whole damn thing there is no mention of oil at all.

What fucking morons.-- CrashisOptomistic


I only regret that I have but onup arrow  to give for my favorite comment of the day.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 23:47 | 4700353 Tulpa
Tulpa's picture

They didn't mention Russia's anemic birth rate, high suicide rate, and endemic corruption either.  Maybe it's a focused article?

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 19:36 | 4699898 Remnant_Army
Remnant_Army's picture

Wednesday, May 16th, 2012 @ 03:10

 "Your banking system will be the cause and Germany, once again, will be involved in this tragedy as it was on the last two occasions."

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 21:23 | 4700121 TruthTalker
TruthTalker's picture

that is just freaky

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 23:59 | 4700378 dirtscratcher
dirtscratcher's picture


From Remnant_Army:

Wednesday, May 16th, 2012 @ 03:10

 "Your banking system will be the cause and Germany, once again, will be involved in this tragedy as it was on the last two occasions."

I call BS on these so-called revelations, as a practicing Catholic. Though they appear authentic and it took me a while to ferret out the errors, these writings are inconsistant with Catholic Traditions and the historical faith. The prognostications contained there-in are typical of laymen who've been sounding the alarm over world events (particularly economic) and prepper-types for the last several years, only they've been interwoven with the words of approved Catholic visionaries in order to provide a believable context. But I ain't buyin' it. To paraphrase Cardinal Burke: "Truth mixed with error still yields error."

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 19:36 | 4699900 Elliptico
Elliptico's picture

It's worse than that.  Countries now can borrow from their central banks.  For example, the US Federal Reserve holds more US Treauries than either China or Japan.  It's that flipping easy, mate!  The old ways are no longer practiced.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:28 | 4699992 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

The new way is, in fact, an old way.  Fails in the end, but is well known in history.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 19:43 | 4699910 Wolferl
Wolferl's picture

As long as there are gas and oil outflows there will be capital inflows to Russia. And if Russia stops exporting oil and gas the western economies are toast.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 19:55 | 4699927 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Pretty much.

But it's just another step more complex.

You see, refineries can't refine oil into diesel and gasoline without nat gas to fuel the burner that heats up the crude.

So this provides the flexibility to deliver oil to customers, get paid, but the customers can't use the oil if the gas isn't flowing.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:44 | 4700037 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

guess who has more refinery capacity than the next top three in the world combined? not only that, they have very large natural gas stocks to keep those refineries running?

wonder how many on this board considered that in their equations? better yet, I wonder if Russia did, because they sure aren't acting like they did...

you don't need natural gas to keep warm if the boats are dropping off US heating oil at the docks...

the bad news is gasoline prices in the US this summer are going to go through... the... roof... when all that refinery capacity goes to diesel & heat for the EU... ah well, war is hell... guess that's why Exxon et al have been scrambling to increase diesel refinery capacity over the past year or so... "nobody could see this coming" lol

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 21:12 | 4700105 sushi
sushi's picture

the bad news is gasoline prices in the US this summer are going to go through... the... roof...

Next question.

If US gas prices go through the roof what does that do to disposable income in the US?

If the EU now seeks to alternate source the energy that it once obtained from Russia, what does that imply for global energy prices?

If global energy prices rise dramatically, what does that imply for those with proven energy reserves?

And if, as you forecast in our earlier discussion, the ruble takes a tumble, how does that benefit Russia?

Energy becomes increasingly scarce, in demand, and high priced. Since it is priced and sold in dollars Russia realizes a premium on each bbl exported and then enjoys a second premium on the fx conversion.

How exactly does this hurt Russia, or constrain her actions?

How does this scenario in any way benefit the west?

My sense of our prior discussion is that you have unwarranted faith in the power of benjamins. Problem have never tried to eat one. The value of the benjamin derives entirely from the fact of it being the product of a system in which one country is free to print as many units of value as it likes, without limit. Until some dude like Putin decides he doesn't want to play the benjamin game, doesn't see the need to suck US dick, and doesn't see any need to support a rigged financial system.

Anyway glad to see you contradicting your own position as stated yesterday.


You don't know shit about refinery operations. As a matter of fact, you don't know shit about energy stocks or flows either. Someone who demonstrates your level of ignorance should be careful about calling other people fools.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 22:04 | 4700185 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

it doesn't benefit anyone in the west... it just benefits Russia less...

the "leveler" is that US gas prices can only go so high, then demand drops... typical summer, it gets shrugged off

btw ever tried to eat a ruble? I hear they taste like benjamins, only you need a lot more to fill yourself up

as for contradicting my own position... I may as well give it a shot, since you or the rest of your ilk had little luck at trying lol... now run off, adults are talking

edit: you may recall from our other "playtime" that I live in Texas... guess which business I'm in? as such, I'll heed my own counsel on how the oil biz runs here thank you very much

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 21:13 | 4700110 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You don't seem to know very much about oil's constituent parts and how it is refined.  Look it up in the wiki.  

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 21:41 | 4700150 sushi
sushi's picture


It's worse than that. He doesn't even know what he was saying yesterday.

You can attempt to follow his prior argument here:

Fucking newbies.


Sat, 04/26/2014 - 22:07 | 4700206 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

lol I fucking destroyed your ass in that thread and you're still butthurt over it... because you HAD NOTHING to bring to the table

fucking ankle biting LOSER

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 22:05 | 4700194 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

nice assertion, too bad you're incorrect

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 21:16 | 4700117 Omen IV
Omen IV's picture

thats is just silly - factories and utilities dont run that way nor homes

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 22:03 | 4700188 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

which is real funny, since the US already exports a large amount of gas and diesel products for the original reason I stated... crude oil needs to be refined to be used, and the US has refineries in spades

you people have serious trouble with facts... too bad that doesn't change them

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 22:16 | 4700231 sushi
sushi's picture

If you were in the oil busines you would know that the reason the US exports refined product is due to the fact that US law prohibits the export of US crude.

If you actually understood how a refinery works then you would know why it is that the US has a surplus of diesel available to sell to the euro market.

I'm getting this sense that you are related to John "57 varieties of truth but none of them related to facts" Kerry.

I know lots of folks in Texas and none of them consider working in a Five Minute Auto Oil Change franchise to constitute employment in the patch. Hope you enjoy the work.


Sat, 04/26/2014 - 23:07 | 4700312 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

stop it sushi, you're killing me with laughter over here... you just stated in your own words how US refinery capacity is going to help level things out for the EU, and you're too blind in your own impotent rage to see it...

you simply don't know what you're talking about, I'll leave it at that and go back to making my predictions... which, btw, are playing out quite nicely... so nicely that I beat a posted article on the very topic by several days... how's your batting average?

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 23:49 | 4700355 Tulpa
Tulpa's picture

"And if Russia stops exporting oil and gas the western economies are toast."

And Russia's economy is charcoal....

Have fun depending on the Great Maoist Wealth Creation Machine to buy your oil.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 19:46 | 4699916 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

thankfully the U.S does not perceive that our borrowings will curtail our ambitions, because debt does not matter. 

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 19:53 | 4699925 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Yes, it's odd that according to Martin the discipline of debt only applies if you believe in it.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 19:51 | 4699922 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

...Or he cuts off the gas to Western Europe until they see his point of view.  Fuck Martin, what did you have to agree to for them to let you out of jail?  I hope it's limited to writing pro-Western Elite propaganda, and they don't have you cleaning their pools on the side.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 19:54 | 4699929 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

that is a pretty big card to be able to play. I tend to think that without that Card Russia is not much different than Venezuela, ending up starved for dollars. But he is holding a solid hand with that, and Germany knows it.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 19:58 | 4699934 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

What kills me is 'Standard and Poors downgraded Russia'.  Wow, what a fucking surprise - I wonder if a Russian credit agency might downgrade the US?  Ah, but only American credit agencies are allowed to provide ratings....  This is soo fucking anchored in 'the US is the most powerful (and benevolent, 'shining light of democracy') nation on the planet, nothing can bring us down' perceptual bias, it HAS to be intentional.  Martin Armstrong is smarter than this.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:01 | 4699937 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Russia knows that credit is not wealth.  We could all take a lesson.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 23:53 | 4700261 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Russia was "forced" to know.

There is no wisdom or benevolence here, only power and arrogance.

The US will be using the Russian model to determine what they should do as they are forced to respond just as Russia and the EU is

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:03 | 4699939 paint it red ca...
paint it red call it hell's picture

Since his exit from the pen, Armstrong seems to be dancing on the end of someones strings.

My question is, why is ZH suddenly giving him so much air time to beat the cabal war drum?

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:04 | 4699944 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

I swore off ZH for a while because of this kind of stuff, but I finally decided that the Tylers are simply doing what MSM never does -- provide both sides of the story.  Once I decided that (whether I'm right or wrong, only the Tylers know), I figured out that it's actually the way it should be.  

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:43 | 4700034 agent default
agent default's picture

Since when was ZH about providing both sides of the story?  It was about providing the hard brutal facts.  Sadly I am beginning to notice that this is changing.  We had way to many obvious propaganda pieces and totally crap articles about the whole Crimea situation.  Something has changed in ZH and I don;t think it is for the better.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:50 | 4700052 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I have been here a while. I am not even sure how long at this point. But when I was in the reading stage and not commenting yet there were people on here even then proclaiming "something has changed in ZH".

The big change is that a 5 year massive bull market run has morphed this site from an investing/finance blog to msm alternative news blog with a side of kwn.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 22:59 | 4700307 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture


Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:06 | 4699948 kito
kito's picture

al, armstrong has made it very clear about his feelings towards the u.s. government and the state of affairs in this country. he has repeatedly called for mid next year to be a very tumultous time for this country. he has spoken of this nation possibly not surviving intact. he has warned his readers of the increasingly socialist/fascist bent the u.s. govt has taken. granted, he does not see hyperinflation ever taking root in the u.s., but aside from that his view of the u.s. is bleak. 

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:22 | 4699979 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Big surprise lol. 

S&P learned what happens when they downgraded the corporation USA.

They know who to downgrade and who not to downgrade now.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 21:36 | 4700141 Bazza McKenzie
Bazza McKenzie's picture

Al, Dagong (Chinese ratings) - Russia: A/stable; US: A-/negative. Sounds about right.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 19:59 | 4699936 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

I know you weren't heading in this direction, but just keep a top level awareness that all oil is not created equal.

Venezuela flows oil that is so viscous their own refineries can't handle it.  They ship to Houston and Houston sends them back gasoline.  Russian oil does not have this problem.  They ship a helluva lot more of it than Venezuela, too.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:04 | 4699943 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I always appreciate your input with oil. I am curious to see if Russia, since they own very little UST's, are rewarded for that, or severely punished.

As for Al's comment, I agree,  it has become a lot harder for Sean Egan to speak, like with Armstrong, since he got his balls stuffed down his throat.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:13 | 4699962 kito
kito's picture

you guys are both way off base. his writings seem to demostrate that armstrong has become very bitter towards the u.s. govt and has looked for any opportunity to expose it for all that we here at zh know it to be. if you wantto talk about somebody who looks around the room but ignores the white elephant standing in the middle, its kyle bass. he seems to shit talk the debt laden countries but skips over the u.s. so if you want to criticize somebody, its kyle the disingenous pussy you should be focusing on. 

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:20 | 4699978 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Bass admits the U.S is following the same route as Japan but has more room to run before we hit the wall. Considering Japan has not hit the wall yet this may still have a ways to go. Bass owns plenty of gold (even if UT sold some) and has explained the fractional reserve gold system very well. Armstrong does not seem to have much interest in gold, so does that not by default make him a dollar bull? Bass is also a money manager so he has to play along while there is a game to be played, so that has to be taken with a grain of salt.

This particular article by Armstrong seems to have an angle to it. Who knows, maybe he is right. But Jim Willie said......

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:27 | 4699993 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

You were talking to someone else, but usually people up or downgrade here based on the merits of each article or statement.

If Mr Armstrong writes an article that people agree with they will up arrow it.

Equal opportunity criticism/praise here for the most part.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:43 | 4700031 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Kito makes a good overall point about Armstrong. Amazingly I just found this in my inbox.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 21:10 | 4700102 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

Kito, you're 100% right!

Kyle Bass, I realized, is the most overrated, insider disguised as an outsider, hedge fund manager ever.

I stopped listening to him over a year ago.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 21:44 | 4700113 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Kyle Bass knows damn well the U.S is doomed and the only way to protect against it is by owning GM, JCP bonds and non agency mortgage debt.

someone just can't appreciate good sarcasm

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 22:04 | 4700190 aka_ces
aka_ces's picture

Saw a video last year where Bass mentioned meeting Congressional reps, and that they just did not 'get' the debt issue.  Bass essentially said he had given up on the US gov.   

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:17 | 4699969 Seer
Seer's picture

This is a very important point.

I firmly believe that in the US before people started to figure out that oil was finite that TPTB used the "evironmentalists are blocking us" scam to cover for not building more refinery capacity for heavier crude.  As mentioned here and there, I believe that they realized that if the distinction between light sweet crude and heavy crude were made that folks would realize that we'd started digging at the bottom of the barrel, which would make it obvious that oil IS in fact finite.  I suppose that some of this might be a bit held back even here.  It's one thing to manage a focused war; it's another thing entirely to try an manage a revolution.

Resource conservation by way of war.  That's how it went down in WWII.  The pent up spending was unleased and everything was made to look miraculous... is this in the playbook?

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 21:24 | 4700123 Bazza McKenzie
Bazza McKenzie's picture

Seriously, "Russia is not much different than Venezuela"?

Russia has probably the largest nuclear arsenal in the world.  It builds its own military equipment all the way up to tanks, fighter and transport aircraft.  You actually have to have serious industrial capacity to do those things.  A greater industrial capacity than most western countries and it has not shipped most of its manufacturing to China.

If there is a war involving Russia, it will certainly affect Russia's economy but probably less than it affects the economies of all European countries and the US.

Do people imagine Russia's economy was not seriously damaged by WWII.  It was devastated.  Did that stop them fighting?  No.  Did that stop them rebuilding into one of the world's then two superpowers?  No.

The media and western politicians have become so bedazzled by fictious GDP and other financial numbers they think a bit of a downturn in them is an epic disaster that stops everything.  It doesn't, and it won't with Russia, a country very aware of history and deeply committed to its own survival.

Putin will take eastern Ukraine and most of its people will be pleased.  Obama and Cameron and Merkel and Barossi and the other western thugs will spit the dummy but are impotent.  They'll try more sanctions on Russia and Russia will deal with China and Iran (so much for the sanctions there) and the rest of the BRICS and other Asian countries not in thrall to the US.

Putin won't invade the rest of Europe, they're not part of historic Russia and he's not going to put his foot down anywhere that requires long term suppression of active dissidents.  But he probably will reciprocate by clandestinely stirring up trouble where it is inconvenient for the US and Europe, like the PIIGS, Turkey and in South America.

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 08:58 | 4700829 AUD
AUD's picture

That seems a level headed take on things. I'd only add that Western politicians believe, or at least hope that financial sanctions on Russia based around the USD will spur domestic discontent. It has been known to work before.

Having your worthless obligations trade as something as precious as money, is a powerful, yet paradoxically fragile, card to hold.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:10 | 4699952 Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

Guess he have to deep hoover some serious illuminati ass to be released from confinement.  

Ukraine provides transport lines for energy to key markets, food supply, and a convenient external distraction for Putin to defuse internal tension in Russia.  Added bonus:  there are fellow ethnic Russians in Ukraine to protect as part of the ongoing distraction/excuse to protect the energy logistics and food.  

How Putin chooses to play it depends on how the variables noted above interact as events unfold.  Don't know what more one could say...but this post is some mighty thin excrement from Armstrong...again...

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:21 | 4699983 Seer
Seer's picture

Also in the mix don't forget the opportunity to push back intrusions that the West/US has been engaged in for quite some time.  I actually think that this is the big one here: and I think that this just gives Russia the break to start shifting its exports to markets that have the ability to pay.

Another twist was given by Paul Craig Roberts, who suggests that this is an intentional design by the West to distract Putin away from Syria and Iran.  I think it has merit: as a matter of fact I heard some news headline about Syria recently after a long time of hearing nothing- something about chemicals I think...

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 23:42 | 4700267 Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

Indeed my friend, could have also mentioned revenge for past US/western interference in Russia as a motivating factor in addition to pushing back activity around the border lands.

Regarding Syria:



Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:58 | 4700074 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture


Fuck Martin, what did you have to agree to for them to let you out of jail?

I was wondering the same thing myself. He appears to be writing under the influence of Uncle Scam's kool-aid.

Both the United States and Europe have threatened harsher sanctions against Russia and Putin has responded by sending bombers over Europe to reminded them who they are dealing with.

Riiiiight. Better watch out for that wily Putin because, according to Marty, the guy can see seven years into the future.

Those bomber flights are pretty much routine and have been going on since Putin resumed them in 2007. Prior to that, the Russians had discontinued such flights after coming to an understanding with NATO that they would do the same. Putin started them back up after seeing that NATO was ignoring their part of the "understanding".

if countries cannot borrow, then they may invade and revert to the old Conquest Model relying upon the spoils of war, which included the confiscation of assets belonging to an adversary.

Either Putin backs down, or he asserts the same principles and is then forced to invade in short-order just to economically survive.

An insane conclusion. Setting aside for a moment the costs of various unanticipated consequences, how would conquering an economic basket case, which would incur huge additional administrative costs and headaches, rescue the Russian economy?

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 00:31 | 4700422 Hapa
Hapa's picture

Armstrong's conclusions are indeed insane.  He gets 80% of it right, then gets the remaining 20% twisted around.  ALL his posts have some element of discord.  He also has trouble with his syntax and grammar and this throws a monkey wrench into the works. I don't read his posts anymore unless ZH puts them up, thinking the Tylers will select one of the better ones.  However, I'm still finding it a let down.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 23:50 | 4700358 Tulpa
Tulpa's picture

"...Or he cuts off the gas to Western Europe until they see his point of view."

And sells it to who?  Or is he planning on fighting a war with no money coming in.

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 02:15 | 4700524 yatikto
yatikto's picture

money,  what's that?  its about resources.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:02 | 4699941 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   "He who owns the gold" Russia is resource rich and has willing buyers. The United States is cluster fucked...

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:25 | 4699990 Seer
Seer's picture

Don't rule out the US.  No one has any idea what's in its vaults.  Paper debts can readily be erased in a puff of smoke.  And, don't underestimate the Masters of Deception.  The US still has a lot of resources; however, it also has twice the population of Russia; I pick Russia, Canada and the US as the top three "survivors," though this is in no particular order (each can be said as deserving any of the three positions/rankings).

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:51 | 4700058 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I have no idea why you are getting hammered on here. I hope your junkers engage you so they can learn something.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 21:44 | 4700157 Seer
Seer's picture

Thanks, fonz.  Sometimes one can feel lonely (esp if some folks like yourself aren't here in the trenches).  And let me take the opportunity to tell you that I have learned from you- thank you.

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 13:51 | 4701289 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

Seer, your comment on the US "paper debts" mirrors my thinking for sometime.  What does a quadrillion in derivitives mean in reality???  If anything it's forced foreign investment into American Real Estate propping up Housing Bubble 2.0 which saved the banks.  But in the end if those foreign interests turn on America their citizens propery rights here will go poof (See Japanease WW2).  To go poof just as quickly will be all foreign held treasury debt and the notes held by the FED.  My guess is that would halve the national debt.  We'd still get oil from Canada, Mexico and likely the Saudis.  We could rebuild the manufacturing base while China is busy dealing with their own implosion.  In the absence of a Nuclear Holocaust I think the US won't be such a bad place to be if the SHTF.  There will be problems, but not as bad as elswhere.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 23:53 | 4700363 Tulpa
Tulpa's picture

He's getting hammered because ZH is full of conspiracy loons, Russia/PRC apparatchiks, and their sockpuppets these days.

It was nice to have an anti-establishment news source, but it's turned anti-American over the past year.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:04 | 4699942 AUD
AUD's picture

Martin Armstrong is full of shit.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:09 | 4699955 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Martin mentioned the unmentionable..."P' word..Ponzi.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:26 | 4699991 Seer
Seer's picture

One thing to say it, another to understand what it really is/means...

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:47 | 4700046 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

You'd think a guy with his history would avoid that.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:10 | 4699956 blindman
blindman's picture

what is this "borrowing" being talked about
on t.v.?

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:13 | 4699959 elephant
elephant's picture

Russia has real things for sale, things that are in demand. We print pretty paper; like wampum and shiny beads, fiat works for a while. What happens if we push Russia too far and they tell us to eat our paper? If they dump bonds and default on debt, what happens to Western Ponzi schemes? Who do you think will win?

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:30 | 4699996 Seer
Seer's picture

Regional trade.  That's where it's all heading.  Ultimate test is to close borders and see how each country can function: again, my picks are Russia, Canada and the US; I could make the argument for a slight nod to the US and Canada because of geography and because they have a pretty well-established trade relationship (and similar social constructs); Russia's neighborhood is a bit more difficult.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 23:54 | 4700366 Tulpa
Tulpa's picture

Russia would collapse without oil/NG exports.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:48 | 4700048 blindman
blindman's picture

Bob Dylan - Positively 4th Street (Greatest Hits, 1967)
the loser always wins, even at the end

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 21:09 | 4700099 Seer
Seer's picture

Winner is the first one out of the pool?

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 21:46 | 4700161 blindman
blindman's picture

Joe Sample & Randy Crawford - Everybody's talking
love this one too.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:50 | 4700054 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

On a sane level Putin will win.But Putin seems to be the only sane player in this game of chicken.I think he realizes this also.
I'm not sure I can see a way this ends well anymore.
Putin won't back down, and the US doesn't know how to
without the Empire collapsing.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:14 | 4699965 km4
km4's picture

OT but way too good

Buffett: The stock market isn't rigged



Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:19 | 4699974 km4
km4's picture

OT but way too good


The Supreme Court's technical cluelessness makes them better justices

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:21 | 4699981 aleph0
aleph0's picture

Ukrainian acting PM: Russian aircraft violated our airspace

... and his own Ukranian acting Defense Minister ...  disagrees .


..."Myhailo Koval said Russian jets approached the border but did not enter Ukraine"... 


Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:31 | 4700005 Seer
Seer's picture

Hm... maybe they did, when the DM wasn't looking?  Which, perhaps, means that it didn't happen/doesn't count?

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:59 | 4700077 Seer
Seer's picture

Do I really have to put </sarc>?

Must be a fresh wave of recruits...

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 22:06 | 4700199 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture


Do I really have to put </sarc>?

No, please, don't do that. Half the fun of sarcasm is watching how many people are fooled by it and work themselves into an uproar.

Must be a fresh wave of recruits...

...not to mention a trained chimp going through and serial junking comments.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:22 | 4699986 teahouse
teahouse's picture

OIL for whom?

Iran has OIL they still live in 19th century, after been in the 1960's the most developed country in Asia.


And that is where the "west" (wrong or right is not up to me to judge) will send Russia as well. 

19th century.


Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:33 | 4700010 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Yeah, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libya, Russia, all pretty much interchangeable.  Maybe before we 'send them back to the 19th century' WE should stop by there and ask Napoleon for his thoughts on the pros and cons of war with Russia.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 21:00 | 4700079 Seer
Seer's picture

Al, can I borrow your Avatar?  I'm feeling I need to take that posture up after encountering as much stupidity that I'm seeing of late...

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 23:58 | 4700377 Tulpa
Tulpa's picture

Are we allowed to ask the Kaiser, the British, and the Japanese as well?

Russia is tough to invade; they haven't won a war against an opponent who didn't invade them during winter in over 200 years.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:36 | 4700018 Seer
Seer's picture

"And that is where the "west" (wrong or right is not up to me to judge) will send Russia as well. "

This is about Russia kicking the West out from its borders, finally.  The West's strategy of keeping Russia down is failing, always was going to: people really need to stop thinking in the virtual world and think in the physical (you do nothing without resources, which is exaclty what it going to happen to Europe if it continues to tow the US's line- Europe won't be able to do much without energy from Russia; Europe has been played as a pawn, again).

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 21:55 | 4700175 Sturmbock
Sturmbock's picture

It seems to me the key for Putin in this whole situation is Germany. Germany is the keystone. Tell Merkel that you look forward to selling oil and natural gas to Germany and for that matter to all of Europe -- and you will be glad to accept Euros , Swiss francs, rubles etc. and even American dollars for it. Befriend Germany and at the same time attack the the petrodollar.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:52 | 4700061 alentia
alentia's picture

Russia has never left 18th century, what are you talking about "sending back"? Back to the future?

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 00:31 | 4700420 Volkodav
Volkodav's picture

useless talkings

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 00:32 | 4700424 Volkodav
Volkodav's picture

Better worry about your own country.


Sun, 04/27/2014 - 10:17 | 4700925 alentia
alentia's picture

How much Pukin pays you to post?

Do you have Pukin's portait in your room?


Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:30 | 4699997 km4
km4's picture

OT but too good

America to celebs: Shut up blogging about products

In a remarkable piece of research, 96 percent of respondents say they have no interest in reading what celebs blog about their favorite organic this or facial that.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:31 | 4700003 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

Now is the time for Putin to explicitly link the ruble to a certain amount of GOLD.

Sat, 04/26/2014 - 20:47 | 4700047 alentia
alentia's picture

The gold will be gone in no time... You need producing economy to do that.

Russia does not produce anything except oil and gas. The economy is still based on stealing money from the government's budget (people) with Putin's pat on the back. It is impossible to produce anything in Russia, if you disagree, let me know when the last time you saw any product with label or stamp "Made in Russia". Last time I saw something with "Made in the USSR" label was about 1980.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!