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BofA Warns Treasury Regime Change Is Coming

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Next week marks the beginning of May and the potential for a regime change in US Treasuries. As BofAML's Macneil Curry notes, historically the month of May coincides with a jump in Treasury volatility. A seasonal analysis of implied Treasury volatility using the MOVE Index (Merrill Option Volatility Estimate) shows that May is traditionally the second strongest monthly of the year after December. With the MOVE Index also showing signs of basing, and 10yr Treasury yields stuck in an increasingly unsustainable narrow range, this May is unlikely to disappoint. While the long term trend for US 10s suggests that Treasury yields should climb higher, in the near term we prefer to take a wait and see approach, watching for a break of the range extremes at 2.825% and 2.591%.
 

Via BofAML,

Chart of the week: Bullish seasonals for the MOVE Index 

Since 1988 the month of May has consistently seen a rise in Treasury volatility. It is traditionally the second strongest month of the year. With the MOVE index showing signs of basing, this May is likely to remain true to seasonal norms.

 

The MOVE Index is basing

Price and momentum say that the MOVE Index is setting up for a substantial, bullish turn in trend. Seasonals say that the break is likely close at hand. A break of Wedge resistance (thick red trendline) at 64 would confirm the turn in trend, setting the stage for a push towards 80 and potentially beyond.

US 10yr yields are set for a breakout

The. 3 month range trade in US 10yr yields has taken historical volatility to unsustainably low levels. The last time the 200d Bollinger bands were this narrow was back in May 2007, which preceded a 4wk 55bps rise.

While the l/term trend is bearish; in the n/term, watch the 2.83%/2.59% range extremes and DON'T FADE A BREAKOUT.

 

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Sun, 04/27/2014 - 12:31 | 4701120 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

"Change you can Believe in! "

 

One Village Idiot.

 

RIPS

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 12:34 | 4701132 RevRex
RevRex's picture

Narrowing bollinger bands used to mean something....pre ObowelMovement...

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 12:52 | 4701152 OceanX
OceanX's picture

Regime change, really?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Dl62CcyuNI  - no more stalins, burroughs recorded this in 1990 and it seems more relevent today...

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 12:55 | 4701159 SmilinJoeFizzion
SmilinJoeFizzion's picture

What times the Clippers game?

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 13:02 | 4701172 Atlas Crapped
Atlas Crapped's picture

And if the Roacheforque index goes negative between April 27 and May 4, the likelihood of a star cross in the Summers range, leaning Delta, could signal further weakness in the narrow band of the Y axis of Barsky's trailing interest rate derivative plot-line, which has also formed a cup and handle within the USD/UST tracking logarithm.

Which of course means gold will shits its pants next Friday.

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 13:07 | 4701187 SmilinJoeFizzion
SmilinJoeFizzion's picture

It's time to short everything (except gold) when Kernan brakes out the animal orchestra

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 13:08 | 4701189 robilla
robilla's picture

What the hell does this even mean?!

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 13:20 | 4701211 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

It means the clients they put into short T's on 1 January have gotten smashed and they are trying to hold onto those accounts.

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 13:12 | 4701199 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Avoid BAML advice.......

 

Of course after a 12 month quadruple toping pattern, Yeilds. Must. Go. Higher..

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 13:14 | 4701203 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

Sorry, isn't it much more important that ten year yields are just way too low? Nothing more?

Doesnt really matter what happened in all months of May since 1988 "on average"...

Jan 1, 2014     2.85%
Jan 1, 2013     1.91%
Jan 1, 2012     1.97%
Jan 1, 2011     3.39%
Jan 1, 2010     3.73%
Jan 1, 2009     2.52%
Jan 1, 2008     3.74%
Jan 1, 2007     4.76%
Jan 1, 2006     4.42%
Jan 1, 2005     4.22%
Jan 1, 2004     4.15%
Jan 1, 2003     4.05%
Jan 1, 2002     5.04%
Jan 1, 2001     5.16%
Jan 1, 2000     6.66%
Jan 1, 1999     4.72%
Jan 1, 1998     5.54%
Jan 1, 1997     6.58%
Jan 1, 1996     5.65%
Jan 1, 1995     7.78%
Jan 1, 1994     5.75%
Jan 1, 1993     6.60%
Jan 1, 1992     7.03%
Jan 1, 1991     8.09%
Jan 1, 1990     8.21%
Jan 1, 1989     9.09%
Jan 1, 1988     8.67%
Jan 1, 1987     7.08%
Jan 1, 1986     9.19%
Jan 1, 1985     11.38%
Jan 1, 1984     11.67%
Jan 1, 1983     10.46%
Jan 1, 1982     14.59%
Jan 1, 1981     12.57%
Jan 1, 1980     10.80%

Nobody will want to lend any more money to anybody.

Therefore, US 10 year "treasury" yields are likely to shoot through the roof

How about >10% like in the 80ies?

Nothing Yellen or any other man can do about it.

Or what didn't I understand?

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 13:24 | 4701215 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

What you didn't understand is there is no economic growth engine to drive the yields higher.  In fact, it is weakening, so they will go lower.

Why do people imagine there is about to be strong demand for borrowing?  Without growth that doesn't happen, and how can there be growth with $100 oil?  If there's no demand for loans, how can their price go up?

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 13:32 | 4701245 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Yep, let's all listen to Bankruptcy of America Muppet Looting tell us the rational to trade in broken markets.

FU BOA!  You should have withered and died on the vine back in 2008, along with many of the other large banks.

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 13:32 | 4701248 Unknown Poster
Unknown Poster's picture

Well, look at the big players. The Fed says taper, China is experiencing debt tremors and capital outflows. If their trade surplus can't cover the outflows, they will be forced into using their currency reserves. Japan is running a trade deficit, perhaps their trade partners are interested in US government debt?
Russia sure ain't buying, and Belgium, well who knows? So who would be buying?
If POMO ends does that result in a scramble to park funds in US debt?
If FX and interest rate swaps move wider, does that result in higher collateral demand?
It seems MMF demands for collateral have been seperated from the market due to the Feds reverse- repo program.
It all comes down to fundamentals... what will Yellen do?

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 13:38 | 4701263 Colonel Klink
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"What will Yellen do?"

Print!

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 13:43 | 4701274 Unknown Poster
Unknown Poster's picture

Sooner or later.

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 13:37 | 4701258 Gamma735
Gamma735's picture

Just wait to see what happens when the petro-dollar loses all its hegemony.  The popping sound will be the dollar bubble popping and an ocean of foreign held US dollars flooding back to our shores and the refusal of foriengers to accept our US dollar.   Treasuries at that point will no longer be preceived as safe.  It will mean war of world wide scale. 

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 21:03 | 4702503 Edward1290
Edward1290's picture

coming sooner than you think

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 13:43 | 4701272 Seal
Seal's picture

The wavelike movement affecting the economic system, the recurrence of periods of boom which are followed by periods of depression, is the unavoidable outcome of the attempts, repeated again and again, to lower the gross market rate of interest by means of credit expansion. There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 13:49 | 4701285 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

bac believes you should buy AND sell

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 14:09 | 4701332 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Stank of America is very trustworthy and has excellent accountants. 

Stack the lead and feed the FED.

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 14:27 | 4701366 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

AGGRESSIVE WAITING is called for....

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 14:42 | 4701405 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

They're only saying "wait and see" and that yields should rise because, being a bank, they buy into the "recovery is just around the corner" idea...

WRONG reasoning.  I'll bet yields go nowhere for the rest of this year.

Sun, 04/27/2014 - 15:38 | 4701553 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

The 3 month range trade in US 10yr yields has taken historical volatility to unsustainably low levels.

I've noticed the same pattern in the McClellan Oscillator/Summation.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83733137120

It's like Miz Janet is trying to squeeeeeze everything to nothing. 

I'd tell her:
Just Hold On Loosely, but don't let go
If you cling too tightly,
you're gonna lose control
Your banksters need something to believe in
And a whole lot of space to breathe in

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