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Is A Crash Inevitable? The Spiral Vortex Of Debt And Corruption

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics blog,

The economy will decline in the USA following 2015.75 and will have several important impacts that will shape our future. The Big Bang is inevitable – YES! The outcome is to be determined. This is why I do what I do. I too have a family and fear for their future. I am not 23, so my shelf time is expiring thank God so I do not have to live in this age of tyranny too long. Nevertheless, all I can do is try to educate as many people for if they understand how things work, then when it comes time for the rebuilding, perhaps we can choose freedom over more authoritarian-tyranny...

So my concerns are for our future – not to sell bullshit. This is far more important. Unfortunately, the primary impact will be:

The USA is the only economy holding up the entire world right now. GDP Growth is collapsing everywhere from Europe, Russia, and into China. Once the USA turns down, the civil unrest will rise in the USA as well. The Occupy Wall Street was a dress rehearsal.


Governments will find it increasingly harder to sell their debt. This trend has already hit both China and Russia. We will see it hit Europe, Japan and then the USA. This will drive the trend to raise taxes further as governments will assume that they need to restore confidence within their debt structures. As they do this, the global economy will turn downward into a spiral vortex.


While governments claim to be mad at the NSA, behind the curtain there is legal swapping going on. Foreign nations are using the NSA to gather data for taxes on their own citizens while denying they spy on their own people yet get that info from the NSA. In return, the NSA allows the British to spy on Americans so the NSA can deny it is doing so domestically and then swaps the info. Germany and Switzerland also participate in this domestic spying for taxes.


The G20 agreement to swap all financial info to hunt down international capital is all about getting tax revenue to sustain the debt structure. There is no long-term planning here and they cannot see that they are creating the next MAJOR GREAT DEPRESSION to make all previous downturns loop like speed-bumps. I reported that even I could not wire $15,000 for expenses to Asia in advance. HSBC refused to accept the wire for they could not guarantee I had no ownership in the account the wire was directed. I had to write a check. You cannot even do business because these people are hunting all capital and PRESUME any transaction over $3,000 is to hide money – not for commerce.


Government will not collapse. This early stage will be about fighting hard to sustain their power. War is part of that. International War takes place either to fill the treasury with the spoils of war and or power as was in the good old days (Putin’s ideas), or the more modern version to act as a distraction to deflect civil unrest (USA to come) and to unleash the dogs of war to settle old scores (China v Japan, North v South Korea, Russia v West).

What you have to realize is that this trend is inevitable – YES. Why? Because there can be no change without pain. It is unrealistic to expect government to simply say OMG, you are right – let’s reform! Gee, here is the power we stole unconstitutionally – sorry! My bad! Political change does not take place without pain. This is what revolution is all about. Government has NEVER even once in recorded history simply said it was wrong and handed back power without anything causing such a change. This is just the way things function. This is Jefferson’s Tree of Liberty that must be feed with the blood of tyrants and patriots.

Therefore, predicting the trend of the MOB is simple and that is what cycles are all about. However, that does not mean we are hopelessly lost as individuals. We personally possess the free will to act like dumb sheep or to see the train coming down the track and move out of its way. This is why there are always two forces politically. People ask me what would happen if everyone used our models? Very simple – that would never happen. There is always people who will never believe simply because they cannot see things in a dynamic structure. They can only see the world in a linear fashion.

So yes – it is inevitable. I can rally a few hundred thousand people and we can all march on Washington. It will change nothing as was the case with the Occupy Wall Street gathering. Government simply arrested people under all sorts of pretense. Michael Bloomberg, who was Mayor of NYC at the time, was more concerned about people drinking soda than the freedom of speech. God forbid they protest against his bankers – never forget he came from Salomon Brothers.

Just as the pretend liberal Bloomberg sought to crush the freedom of speech yet cared so much about people drinking soda, we are hopelessly lost in a declining spiral vortex of debt and corruption that will only change with war and civil unrest.


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Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:29 | 4704726 HedgeAccordingly
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sure maybe.. something is indeed brewing.. but likely it is just Russia fuming

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:35 | 4704755 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

The system collapsed long ago, maybe the day it was built - you are watching its death rattle.  Russia aside, the system's collapse was inevitable.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:46 | 4704807 DoChenRollingBearing
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This time I think Martin gets it right.


Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:56 | 4704854 Keyser
Keyser's picture

If everyone is broke, who really is left to buy bonds? Belgium can only do so much and she's our bitch... 


Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:59 | 4704865 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

I agree with DoChen...

Armstrong makes a good case for preparation and I am all about being as self reliant as possible.

I wonder where MA got this bent from, his last few articles have been pure jibberish.


Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:04 | 4704891 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Maybe he wasn't writing what you wanted to read.

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:11 | 4704923 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

I'm pretty open to many points of view, chumba...

It's just that he doesn't always explain what's going on inside his skull very well.

Have you ever worked for/with someone who talks to you as if you reside inside their head and should know intuitively what they thought or meant?

MA is one of those people, you have to stay right on top of his stuff or get shuffled into the backwash.


Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:34 | 4705023 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

Government has NEVER even once in recorded history simply said it was wrong and handed back power without anything causing such a change. 

Yes, never. Sure, obviously something caused the change but it wasn't the 'inevitable' war / revolution Armstrong alludes to. 

So yes – it is inevitable. I can rally a few hundred thousand people and we can all march on Washington. 

Armstrong has really lost it..

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 16:28 | 4705248 Pickleton
Pickleton's picture

Ummm, did you just ignore that the whole communism thing failed because a certain group of people bankrupted them before they handed the reigns back?  With little choice to oppose it too...



Mon, 04/28/2014 - 18:22 | 4705628 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture




Andrew Jackson may have resolved the problems with removal of the Fed Reserve of the 1800's. 

No war, just horrifically benefitial deflation; for commoners.

However, the 1900's Fed made up for it and killed 100's of millions and now rules the sheeple.

The 80+ yr cycle is about to flip. Get ready to lose ownweship of any and everything.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:37 | 4705057 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Yeah, I hear you.  I find him to be obtuse at times and I don't always agree with him.  And his track record at predicting things even with his flaunted model is no better than anyone else's.

I was just bringing up the confirmation bias thing.  Lawd knows I been guilty of it.


Mon, 04/28/2014 - 17:11 | 4705408 Dugald
Dugald's picture

HSBC refused to accept the wire for they could not guarantee I had no ownership in the account the wire was directed.

And that makes sense???????

What is he saying that has not been said here before ad nauseum

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:11 | 4704929 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

.I am not 23, so my shelf time is expiring thank God so I do not have to live in this age of tyranny too long.

I see this doomed meme entirely to often; "Yup, you're all going to burn but hopefully my advanced age will put me in the ground beforehand, so I don't suffer."

It's frankly a rank attitude, especially since the cohort in question fed like jackals on the unjust, evil ponzi.

And now they hope to check out before the bill arrives?

Seems both evil and unmanly.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:22 | 4704979 813kml
813kml's picture

Revolution is the business of the young and able-bodied.  Some of the older crowd is just as disillusioned but lack the ability to do much besides critique.  

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:35 | 4705044 seek
seek's picture

I disagree. There's a famous adage "old age and treachery will always beat youth and exuberance."

The young provide the manpower, the old, the tactics and targets.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:44 | 4705089 813kml
813kml's picture

There would be no need for revolution if not for treachery, youthful exuberance gives the ability to slit throats yourself instead of having to find a proxy.

You are describing governments that send their young off to be cannon fodder.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 20:27 | 4705935 acetinker
acetinker's picture

Pick yor enemies wisely, 813.  Seek will be the guy who supports your supply line- if you ever decide to fight.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 16:32 | 4705253 Pickleton
Pickleton's picture

I have this (for lack of a better term) fantasy that when the time comes, those older folks that get it will form the sacrificial regiments to be first to oppose the elites.  I've got teenage children I've ensured are awake, and I like to think if my remaining mileage is short, I'd do it for them.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 17:20 | 4705440 Dugald
Dugald's picture

Revolution is the business of the young and able-bodied. Some of the older crowd is just as disillusioned but lack the ability to do much besides critique.

Your forgetting kiddo...many of us oldsters had military training and can still shoot in the 90's, and some of us can still run duck and weave a lot faster than you may think....

Don't write us off, they don't call us Grey power for nothing.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 18:36 | 4705662 813kml
813kml's picture

I was lumping the older but still mobile crowd in with the able-bodied.  The young fat bodies and older walker types aren't likely to be leading any street protests or guerilla activities.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:27 | 4704999 Doña K
Doña K's picture

Similar with the guy that was told by his doctor that he only had six months to live. So he did not pay the doctot's bill.

So the doctor gave him another six months.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 20:48 | 4705980 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

We're all in the same boat BUT -- I think I can still hear the band playing.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:27 | 4705000 Jason T
Jason T's picture

This time?  


Armstrong and his computer have scored things right beyond imagionable.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 16:09 | 4705178 Nacho.Libre
Nacho.Libre's picture

Interesting the only prediction with that goes out to a decimal place is the last one that he has been pumping recently.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 02:08 | 4706713 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture



He even presents it with a dash of LOL macabre humour:

"... OMG, you are right

– let’s reform!

Gee, here is the power we stole unconstitutionally

– sorry! My bad!"

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:47 | 4704808 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Yes it was, but did you expect that he would just lie down and die, or take out a few of the opponants and hope he still gets to pass down his way. 

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:47 | 4704809 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

There's still time to prepare that farm & cottage in the forest.

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:57 | 4704858 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Yeah, in Costa Rica....

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:05 | 4704899 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

I get the impression there are already too many self-entitled over-privileged gringos there.

America is a big place.

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 18:41 | 4705672 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture




Maybe in Costa,  but not Ecuador.

Was just there and opportunity abounds.

Want to move there and intergrate sincerely, no problem.

Or be like typical boomer gated community target, no problem.

Your choice.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:12 | 4704934 chunga
chunga's picture

Check out what this guy did Chumba, when you get a chance.


The guy who built this place joined ZH...c'mon Tim...if you see this take a bow.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 16:33 | 4705256 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Have you seen the beginning of "The Outlaw Josey Wales"?

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 16:50 | 4705327 chunga
chunga's picture

I reckon so.

One of my favorite movies. ;-)

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 20:47 | 4705977 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Yep, that's the way to do it.  But it's not for everyone.  Some people just prefer the cities, and I guess they're betting that there won't be any major social disruption that will result in martial law being invoked, resulting in a generally less enjoying lifestyle of a visible police state.

I hope people aren't so stupid as to let that happen to their cities but it already looks like it's moving in that direction.


Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:12 | 4704936 Seer
Seer's picture

As I've stated it, pick how you want to exist in the future and start being it TODAY!  Of course, it's best to ensure that one is grounded in the fundamentals (Food, Shelter and Water) when picking one's future "profession."

But, the takeaway no matter what is to not wait.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:51 | 4704827 barliman
barliman's picture


Being cynical, without insight, is as useful as being an Evangelist without proof of God. Both are public masturbatory exercises.

"The system collapsed long ago, maybe the day it was built ..."

Or maybe I'm wrong and it took YOU both hands and sweating bullets to come up with that semantically null statement.

It is sophmoric to utter "the day it was built" since it is already far older than you. Communism STILL controls over 20% of the world's population and it's EVENTUAL failure is written in stone - just the end date is missing.

Mr. Armstrong's exercises are becoming more polemical and less informative as time goes by. He provides slightly more insight than you have but then he has the better track record.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:59 | 4704867 pods
pods's picture

Yes, you are wrong.  What was said was correct.

As soon as the first dollar was conjured up out of nothing and lent at interest the die was cast.

Exponential equations do not work for money systems for long.



Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:08 | 4704918 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture


As soon as the first dollar was conjured up out of nothing and lent at interest the die was cast.

Well said.  Slavery with a silver spoon.  Thousands of years in the making.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:29 | 4705012 barliman
barliman's picture


Your "silver spoon" metaphor contradicts the "fiat money" meme ...

... or were you trying to say something intelligent?

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:14 | 4704945 Seer
Seer's picture

"Exponential equations do not work for money systems for long."

Nor do they for mining/extraction processes when one is standing on a ball (finite planet).

Interest & growth (consumption) are locked hand-in-hand.  Waltzing over the cliff it goes...

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:23 | 4704983 pods
pods's picture

What I have been contemplating is whether we are foced into this growth meme due to our monertary system or if we allowed this monetary system because we are programmed for growth.


Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:27 | 4705001 barliman
barliman's picture


Going to see if you can get him to participate in a "Regurgitating Euphemisms Circle Jerk"?

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:46 | 4705102 pods
pods's picture


Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:32 | 4705021 centerline
centerline's picture

That is exactly how it works.  Nature is programmed for growth.  We are no better than bacteria is this regard.


Mon, 04/28/2014 - 16:05 | 4705160 magnetosphere
magnetosphere's picture

nature is mostly definitely NOT programmed for growth.  systems only grow when they tap a vast new resource like a continent or new technology like heat engines.  we are still in the birth phase of homo sapiens, but eventually we will learn to live in steady state just like all the other animals. think tigers, wolves, they do not kill off all their prey, that would be stupid.

in fact the native americans may have gone through their growth and bust phases 10 thousand years ago, killing off all the megafauna, and subsequently learned to live in equilibrium with nature as we found them 500 years ago.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 16:36 | 4705267 Seer
Seer's picture

Life is programmed for, um, life, not death...  OK, splitting atoms here... Life is programmed for continuance, lots of lifeforms know how to adjust their reproductive rates based on their sense of the environment.  And the predators...

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 17:21 | 4705438 centerline
centerline's picture

What a supreme dumbass statement.  Every population of every species if left unchecked will reproduce until it consumes the available resources.

You really think animals THINK about not eating the last prey?



Mon, 04/28/2014 - 18:02 | 4705577 magnetosphere
magnetosphere's picture

wrong.  tigers are strictly territorial for a very good reason.  a male tiger will not allow other male tigers to intrude on his land and eat his food, because then the prey will be killed off.  their territory size is precisely calculated to result in equilibrium, balancing production and consumption of e.g. deer.  animals that do not learn to live in equilibrium die off.

and animals are a lot smarter than you think.  they use many human technologies, including flight, magnetic compasses, batteries, aerodynamic shapes and configurations to reduce drag, hydrodynamic shapes, sonar, etc.  much of human technology is in fact derived from observing the animals.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 18:27 | 4705633 centerline
centerline's picture

LOL.  You are really, really nuts.

"Precisely calculated"  hahahaha.  Tiger surveyors.  Tiger engineerings.  Tigers figuring out how shit works in the grander scheme.  That is funny.  You are mistaking social structures for calculated action directly relative to food supply.  One good disruption to the equilibrium in any way and a new order is established.  Duh.

Nature is a process of inherited traits that are part of survival.  It is a constant struggle... there is no real balance in the grand scheme of things.  Even short term, when balance is tipped, for whatever reason, things readjust and some species just dont survive.

Nature, by design is ingenious.  Not because it designed itself.  But because the evolutionary processes are slanted towards survival.  We still have much to learn from nature in many ways.  That does not make the beings who have these traits "smart" in the definition of knowing how to control thier destiny any more than a tree.


Mon, 04/28/2014 - 20:54 | 4705992 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

I thought the subject was exponential growth not animal intelligence?

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 21:35 | 4706131 magnetosphere
magnetosphere's picture

well my point is that the natural state of all animals is steady state wrt the environment.  once in a blue moon a disruptive eventive leads to a boom/bust.  our current growth phase has lasted 50,000 years, will end soon, and lead to a sort of steady state, not repeated and endless mega boom and bust that is unlike what other animals do in the absence of windfalls.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 16:35 | 4705259 Seer
Seer's picture

I often make fun of it, but I really think that it all started with: "Go forth and mulitply;" never were given a set of brakes... and, well, if it feels good...

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:25 | 4704993 barliman
barliman's picture


Next time ... just go with "Me Too!!!!!"

There is SOME value in brevity of expression.


Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:37 | 4705059 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

You all are so nihilist.  I spend 2 minutes with my grandchildren and all this money craziness and politcal nonsense means very little.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 16:09 | 4705179 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Should make it worse.
I have an eleven year old grand-daughter living with me(long
story) which makes me worry all the more , not less.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 16:13 | 4705201 Patriot Eke
Patriot Eke's picture

Uhm, the primary reason I fight is for my children and theirs, and I want them to be alive, not slaves to debt or anything else, and living comfortably.  The time I spend learning and preparing is for them whether they realize it now or not.  I never want to ask for forgiveness for something I did not do.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 16:39 | 4705276 Seer
Seer's picture

When no one is starving there's really little need.  And, as an older person you're on your way out; the young-uns don't have the capacity to understand mortality (and likely they have no clue about how poor most of humanity is- it's nice to be born into the kingdom...)

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 18:32 | 4705653 centerline
centerline's picture

It was a very "typical" statement for our day and age in a first world country.  Normalcy bias is a bitch (big ugly one with all the nasty tools to make people scream).

Your point here is what people need to wake up to.  Most people really have no clue how bad it can get and what it would be like to be in that scenerio.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:23 | 4704987 barliman
barliman's picture


Ahhhhh, more spouters of euphemisms ... without detail or insight ... so just more public masturbation.

Repeating what you have read here does NOT qualify as wisdom or insight.

Once upon a time on ZH, I would write detailed explanations with cited references that pointed out facts for people to digest that would enable them to note when a milestone had been reached.

I don't bother anymore because of the "dogma spouters" like yourself convinced that worthless statements are sufficient unto themselves who will NEVER learn because you are not here to learn - you merely seek an outlet for you ego.

Let me know when, if ever, you want to provide something specific on WHEN the fiat system fails ... that might, possibly, be of some value to someone.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:44 | 4705091 pods
pods's picture

Okay, so if we are going to have this converstation, lets first set some ground rules.

First, can we agree that we do not have a FIAT system?  We have a debt backed, fractional reserved system, correct?

As for collapsing, I would say it HAS collapsed, as in 2008 the FED created somewhere around 16 Trillion in "reserves" to save the system.

It currently fails to the tune of around $65 billion a month due to the need to increase aggregate debt.

Now if you would ask when the point where the FRN, aka dollar is no longer used for currency?  Idk, and I don't think anybody does.

I appreciate your condescension.  Certainly if we are all to look at why we are here the ego certainly plays a role.  Being honest about it is actually a good thing I guess.

Never was much for psych analysis though.


(and if you are going to state something lofty and self serving about me signing off on my posts, hold your valued breath, I've heard it all before)

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 16:35 | 4705261 vie
vie's picture

I don't know why but my mind keeps thinking 9/11 was a metaphore, or microcasm for the collapse of the monetary system.  The planes have hit the buildings, now we're about to witness each floor/country being taken out in a super slow-motion controlled demolition, (Ukraine, Syria, EU, Japan, ...)

Presumably the US, Russia, and China are somewhere near the ground floors.   My gut tells me for this "Problem -> Reaction -> Solution" to work and create a one-world trade center... I mean government, the problem is going to have to be so bad in every country, no one will ever want to fight another war.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 16:49 | 4705322 Seer
Seer's picture

9/11 definitely was stepping up the game for TPTB.  It's been a slow wrench, but 9/11 gave a big twist.

There will NOT be any NWO.  Take a look at Ukraine.  It was ONE country and now it's people are hell-bent on killing one-another in order to break apart.  OK, so in the case of Ukraine it's a matter of merging in with other larger bodies (EU or Russia), but you can see that this is really only temporary until there's a more regional settling: EU  will fragment with some sort of North/South and East/West divide (or however it works).

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 20:59 | 4706006 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

 no one will ever want to fight another war.

This meme gets legs and starts walking every now and then, like post WWI / League of Nations and post WWII / United Nations.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 16:35 | 4705265 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Exponential growth is perilous in biological systems as well. Every day I pull out my new cultures to see the exhuberance of new growth. The abundance of nutrients,space and sugars create a wild colonization. A Carefree world of gluttony from individuals not faced with usual rigors inherent in the natural world. The speed is alarming to watch when bacteria are presented with an artificial environment.

Then to the older cultures. Nutrients are scare and waste products are building up. The colonies are distressed and dying. Some will try to make a last ditch attempt to hold on at the sides of the petrie dish away from the massive crowd of the dying where a small amount of clean space and sustenance still remain. But they too will die, choked off in the end unable to break free of their cage.

Wow, for some reason I feel a bit depressed now.


Mon, 04/28/2014 - 17:05 | 4705391 Seer
Seer's picture

Man, quit being cruel!  Give them "technology" and they needn't suffer! </sarc>

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:37 | 4704770 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Gold, not gold mines:

Consider other preps and moving assets (Bitcoin, CA$H, etc.)

Off the grid?

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:38 | 4704776 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

No, not bitcoin!

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:41 | 4704788 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I own well under 1% in Bitcoin.  Yet I feel excellent about it.  I can take them AND use them anywhere w/ Internet access.  And if I can get to the point where I can buy gold in Peru with BTC..., game over fishez!

US corruption?  Get a bolt-hole...

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:47 | 4704810 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"I can take them AND use them anywhere w/ Internet access.  And if I can get to the point where I can buy gold in Peru with BTC.."

Well then, here's to a robust internet and power grid that doesn't have a government "kill switch"...

...oh wait.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:55 | 4704844 centerline
centerline's picture

LoP, someone told me the other day that cell phones will soon have a mandatory kill switch function so that if stolen it is possible to remotely "wipe" the phone of personal information.


Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:19 | 4704962 Seer
Seer's picture

NOt far-fetched at all given that automobile manufacturers are starting to put remove kill capabilities in vehicles.  I think that it's GM (and its On-Star system) that's first?

Someday a swat team will show up to my place because I have a vehicle that has no electronics, which clearly means that I'm a terrorist! (no, just a cheap bastard that doesn't want to shell out oodles of money on products that are WAY more than I require, and one that is mechanically inclined)

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 16:14 | 4705214 Patriot Eke
Patriot Eke's picture

"Smart guns" will have similar kill switches.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 17:04 | 4705300 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

The designer of my 'dumb gun' has cleverly, and with some foresight, installed a trigger/kill switch ahead of the installation of a kill switch.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 17:09 | 4705403 Seer
Seer's picture

Reminds me I need to obtain some slingshots... (no, really- sometimes you don't want to attract attention)

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 16:37 | 4705271 vie
vie's picture

By someday, you mean the next verison that comes out.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:59 | 4704863 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Well, unlike cash it is traceable.

So are "you with it."

It's not the Government that set up the information exchanges but the private sector.

Sure...they want to know where there taxpayers are...but the value of that information is pretty much ZERO. They need GROWTH...not "who's the friggin tax cheat!".

It's the private sector that wants to match the money with a "Facebook"(of business"...and the fact that Purile Inc stands by and does nothing says that capital is indeed more than just scarce is being drained from the system.

Hence "forget mere revolution bitch" (that was great for the economy btw) you're talking eliminating income(s?) from the economy.

You simply cannot generate even the HOPE of recovery doing this. The irony of course is that the economy is still doing fine here...almost too good actually.

"And now you've opened the Oyster of Ukraine."

The question therefore has become "can I take Moscow not with a ten million man Army but with a ten thousand man Army."

And indeed...we're about to find out.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:15 | 4704950 kito
kito's picture

cash will be traceable. soon enough, as more transactions are done via card swiping or phone swiping, all vendors will be required to scan in any physical bills received from anybody who dares to buck the system and pay with cash. 

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:23 | 4704986 Seer
Seer's picture

"You simply cannot generate even the HOPE of recovery doing this. The irony of course is that the economy is still doing fine here...almost too good actually."

The "economy" is PURE FICTION.  It an be made to look anyway that TPTB want it to look: of course, at some point it'll be pretty hard to buy the lie.

"The question therefore has become "can I take Moscow not with a ten million man Army but with a ten thousand man Army."''

And Then?  Will we burn through the gas/oil reserves faster or slower?

Even fucking bank robbers have some idea what they're going to do after they wave the gun...

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 16:10 | 4705181 assistedliving
assistedliving's picture

"I can rally a few hundred thousand people and we can all march on Washington."  yah.  sure.  maybe if you offer free what uv been smokin

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:31 | 4704736 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Market runs on a computer program. It's bullshit. One day that program will be rebooted to reset the global economy. Rinse and repeat. 

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:40 | 4704778 Thought Processor
Thought Processor's picture



We need to make sure the Government gets Rebooted too.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:26 | 4704995 Seer
Seer's picture

I'm thinking more along the lines of this:

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 16:17 | 4705225 Patriot Eke
Patriot Eke's picture

Oligarchs have a lot of skin in the game and work behind the scenes to manage nation states like chess pieces.  You really think those folks are simply going to say, "Okay, game over.  Wipe the board and set it up to play another round!?"  No.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:33 | 4704739 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The earth has long since adopted a non-sustainable "debt-is-money" system.  Such is system can work, but it is built on FAITH.

Faith that bad behavior will be prosecuted and jailed.

Since that clearly has not happened, the whole system is doomed as no more faith means no more credit motherfucker.

Hedge accordingly.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:14 | 4704944 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Debt-is-money does require either periodic recessions and deflation every once in a while with debt forgiveness, or sustained exponential growth.  The leaches in Congress and at the Fed are doing everything that they can to prevent recession (we're in a papered over depression, but don't tell them that,) in the face of no exponential growth.  Fiat debt money tends to this stage, which is why it will never work.  Indefinitely sustained exponential growth is impossible on our planet.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:37 | 4705055 Seer
Seer's picture

I got hammered the other day by some regular ZH member about me constantly bringing the exponential growth issue up.  I'd been harping on this since I started here, back in the days when the only other person "speaking out" here was Trav777.  I'd like to think that all of it hasn't been for naught, and seeing folks like yourself (and of course LawOfPhysics and several others) it makes me feel more optimistic.  Of course, being optimistic doesn't save us, but at least it lets us go out with a clearer head (one not sludged up with a bunch of hate and shit).  I suppose it's kind of like the ending to Breaker Morant (one of my favorite movies):

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 16:05 | 4705165 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I think some of the backlash that you'll get over the issue is that it leads to some conclusions that might very will shake some people's core beliefs.  I want to be left alone and I want liberty, but sustained growth is linked, in part, to sustained population growth.  If physics says that this cannot continue, then you can start to see the conflict with liberty.   It is a very uncomfortable topic that really needs to be discussed openly and candidly so that we can figure out non-draconian non-anti-liberty solutions for our decendants.  We know that one child per family rules under dictators don't work, yet we can see populations falling (sans immigration) in many developed countries. 

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 17:25 | 4705461 centerline
centerline's picture

In my humble opinion, that fundamental paradox is right where the conversation leads.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:32 | 4704742 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Spiral Vortex........ How bout callin it for what it big fochin pile of steamin pig shit!

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:33 | 4704747 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It sounds like Armstrong is long bonds and mega cap stocks too.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:35 | 4704757 Cursive
Cursive's picture


....until 9/30/15

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:37 | 4704771 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

That's way to far off.  How about until May.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:39 | 4704777 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Soul Glow

No, that's not my prediction, that date is Armstrong's date (i.e. 2015.75).

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:01 | 4704873 Keyser
Keyser's picture

I would say that date is optomistic with the current state of affairs... And of course it would preclude us turning the planet into a smolder pile of shit too... 


Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:15 | 4704948 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Who knows.  I had the Spring of '13 pegged when I joined Fight Club in 2010.  Shows how easy it is to call the collapse.  At this point wake up in the morning, have a nice breakfast and coffee, go for a walk, do some work, go home, read ZH, eat more food and have a beer, go to bed ready that tomorrow could be the last day our society has the current financial system.

When the other shoe drops it will not wreck the havoc that some imagine - this because we don't need a finance center nor have we ever needed one - but it's just that people believe we do.  When we no longer have it people will be scared and this is our culture's biggest danger - that the people will go along with the "governments" plans because they need to be supported.  The fact of the matter is we will be much better without the current banking system.  The collapse will be more about enlightenment than a decent into chaos, it is just that if people fail to wake up then we will decend into chaos.

Long books and libraries.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 16:19 | 4705231 Patriot Eke
Patriot Eke's picture

At least 90% of the world's population depend on the system to survive from one day to the next.  You really believe "it will not wreak the havoc that some imagine?"

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:17 | 4704874 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Cursive -

I know that.  I was making fun of him, not you.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 17:12 | 4705411 Seer
Seer's picture

Yeah, I've got a train to catch!

Martin, can you print a revision?

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:36 | 4704765 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Lol.... Damn who are we going to find for a bigger fool now?

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:38 | 4704772 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

what did he say to own after 9/2015? He is not in the gold camp right?

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:43 | 4704798 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I think maybe he is long lists.  Between him and Snyder I'm all doomed and gloomed out.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:02 | 4704886 pods
pods's picture

A month of riding an Alpaca around storing your wealth in the many local banks like Johnny Gold Seed does wonders for your soul.

Simon says so!


Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:16 | 4704954 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Yeah throw Mr. World traveler in with that group of downers too.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:58 | 4704861 centerline
centerline's picture

Rare coins for one. Items that may not be directly confiscated so readily as big bars of gold.

I do sort of appreciate his approach in that a changing environment, all bets are off.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 17:15 | 4705421 Seer
Seer's picture

I'm not so certain that rare coins are a smart thing.  Sometimes rarity results in a vastly reduced pool of buyers.  And yeah, the large pool of folks aren't likely going to be able to buy, so I suppose... UGH!  There's no way out! (no, really, seems every angle is full of pitfalls)

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 17:35 | 4705497 centerline
centerline's picture

Yeah, no one out there is really sure what to do.  I have spent the last 6 years reading everything I can get my hands on.  So far, MA has been about the most honest (allbeit weird).  He has said that YMMV depending on where you are - circumstances - etc.  I think that we all sort of get that here.  We have beat this horse pretty good over the years.

I dont care what anyone around here says... we are all gambling on the outcome one way or another.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 21:06 | 4706044 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

UGH!  There's no way out! (no, really, seems every angle is full of pitfalls)

Now wait -- I've been paying really close attention for a couple of years now and I thought it was just three simple steps:

  • Get a pile of gold (bigger is better)
  • Get a boat 
  • Have a boating accident

Right? </sarc>

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:34 | 4704748 pelican
pelican's picture

But Cramer says it is a great time to buy!


Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:36 | 4704763 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

What's Gartman saying though?  

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:34 | 4704751 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Martin Armstrong


We personally possess the free will to act like dumb sheep or to see the train coming down the track and move out of its way. 

All right, Captain Obvious.  We know all of that.  What I'd really be interested in knowing are your toughts on how best to get out of the way.




Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:45 | 4704787 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

get off the tracks?



You want the answer? $75.00


Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:50 | 4704819 Cursive
Cursive's picture


I can't post pics, so check out the pic in this link.  This is how the situation looks to me and I ain't spending $75 for crap.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 08:30 | 4707129 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

good pic, lol.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:42 | 4704794 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

"Government will not collapse"

He sure sounds like a bawnd salesman to me.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:00 | 4704871 Seer
Seer's picture

No shit.  And, well, it's NEVER happened to any govt in the history of the human race (and especially not the chosen ones, empires)! </sarc>

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 23:40 | 4706474 Flagit
Flagit's picture

fonz, when i first came here, i remember being directed to a first hand account of the Zimbabwe crisis and the events that led to governmental collapse. when the paychecks of government employees was no longer enough to cover the costs of food, they stopped showing up. they continued to do their jobs until thy could no longer eat.

if the master plan involves a reset and a conversion to a new global currency, i see that transition taking place over the course of a few weeks to a month. the plans will already be on the table (see Patriot Act) and ready to implement right down to the presses printing out new currency for the banks to exchange, at a nominal reduction in value, IF physical currency will even be continued with. with the army in place in the major cities(USNorthCom) and the media presenting the smack-down live,.....and thats where im stuck.

will the nation stand down, like the door-to-door Boston Moar-a-thon, 

or will it eclipse into Bundy Ranch: Nation Edition.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:49 | 4704813 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Ummm... it would've been "Captain Obvious" had he told you how to get out of the way.

"Neither a borrower nor a lender be."

Liquidity is King!

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:29 | 4705011 Cursive
Cursive's picture


You know that Mike Tyson quote about having a plan?  Yeah, that one.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:49 | 4704817 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

It behooves us to remember that men can never escape being governed.
Either they must govern themselves or they must submit to being governed by others
If from lawlessness or fickleness, from folly or self-indulgence, they
refuse to govern themselves, then most assuredly in the end they will
have to be governed from the outside. They can prevent the need of
government from without only by showing that they possess the power of
government from within. A sovereign cannot make excuses for his
failures; a sovereign must accept the responsibility for the exercise of
the power that inheres in him; and where, as is true in our Republic,
the people are sovereign, then the people must show a sober
understanding and a sane and steadfast purpose if they are to preserve
that orderly liberty upon which as a foundation every republic must
- Theodore Roosevelt

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:03 | 4704890 Seer
Seer's picture

It's a great quote.  I'm a proponent of "self-governed."

Nice to see you around again!

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:50 | 4704820 kito
kito's picture

What I'd really be interested in knowing are your toughts on how best to get out of the way...


Cursive!! just give ol simon black a call!!! he has it worked out!! 

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:05 | 4704902 Seer
Seer's picture

Have lots of money to move to a SA country!  Oh, convert it to BTC before you move it (send a few tokens fonestar's way!).

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 17:17 | 4705430 Seer
Seer's picture

"What I'd really be interested in knowing are your toughts on how best to get out of the way."

Not going to like the answer: "Jump you fuckers!" (seems we're all going to be falling from higher "elevations"- get ready for the road bed next to the tracks, it's going to leave a mark)

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:35 | 4704758 Flux
Flux's picture

Oh... good morning Zero Hedge. Your cheery disposition is always a treat.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:37 | 4704768 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture


Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:42 | 4704793 Thought Processor
Thought Processor's picture



And after that you can BTFWW3.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:07 | 4704908 Seer
Seer's picture

You're not sporting the spirit ot things!

BTFD :-)  (adding a smiley gives it that "positive" spin that we all need)

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:41 | 4704786 Cursive
Cursive's picture


Good luck on winning your game of chicken with the train.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 17:31 | 4705479 Flux
Flux's picture


I'm too pretty. No, seriously. I AM too pretty. The train would stop. The conductor would step out. And he would say:

"We had to stop. Flux was just too pretty. And his sunny disposition was infectious. So we gave him $20 for gas money, foodstamps, and a big-breasted Thai whore."

Thats just how I roll.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:40 | 4704783 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture


the civil unrest will rise in the USA as well. The Occupy Wall Street was a dress rehearsal.

OWS wasn't civil unrest; it was civil protest (against social and economic inequality).  Ditto with the original Tea Party (which challenged the fact we have an income tax and a privatized central bank running the public Treasury).  

I actually often contrast the London Riots of 2011 to the actual civil unrest that will happen.  And the London Riots, which were pretty bad, will be like a Sunday at Toys R Us during XMAS season compared to the shit that will start to happen in America once the other economic shoe falls. And in the UK, where nothing got fixed after the riots (actually, more austerity, racism, and poverty ensued), I have a slight feeling nothing will change here in the US after the bloodshed amongst citizens (because the ownership class has too much to lose, and the working classes are too scared).

What do you call people who walk quietly to slavery? Who allow themselves to be insulted without standing up for themselves beyond wardrobe adjustments that in reality are nothing but a public show of shame? What do you call people that pretend that these ridiculous gestures actually hold some weight rather than face the fact that we are the laughing stock of the entire planet, and as long there’s the chance that someday maybe we’ll be rich there’s nothing that we’re going to do about it?


I call us cowards.

I'm giddy for it all to burn down, quite frankly.  

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:53 | 4704834 Thought Processor
Thought Processor's picture



Peaceful protests could bring everything to a halt relatively quickly I would think.   They can also be the most damaging to the very system that the Government relies on in order to operate.  OWS at least proved that people can still me mobilized, which is a good thing.

Only problem is that the Gov. would want the protests to get bloody, in order to scare those that may also want to protest away.  They would resort to instigating the violence in order scare and to break up the protest itself.  I also think that the real majority of the population that might protest would only do so peacefully.  Those over 40 and under 18 for example, plus the vast majority of women.

If you really want to protest in numbers, then it almost has to be non-violent.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:18 | 4704960 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture


Peaceful protests could bring everything to a halt relatively quickly I would think.

The problem is between provacatuers, black bloc anarchists, and the number of actual retards in the general population hinder this greatly. And I haven't even gotten to the worst problem at all: the police and their "methods" of handling mass protests exascerbate the "crowd" and their excitement.  

Remember, this country once had MPs and Capital Police beat up thousands of WWI vets who wanted proper compensation for their duty to their country as millions staged a sit-in Washington for WEEKS.  The President, Congress, Pentagon.....ALL of them stood their ground.  Until, of course, 4 weeks later, the news hit to the streets (1920s lol).  Eventually, the US Government had to do something because it if it didn't, it's have both angry vets AND angry citizens to deal with (and that's how the GI Bill, admin leave, etc came about for military vets and current service members).

The protests over bus fares and gentrification started pretty peacefully in Brazil.  Then the government and their wealthy owners said enough, the batons came out, and then shit REALLY started to get a bit nasty.  Thankfully for the protesters, there was a FIFA tournament going on, and in the sake of public relations, Brazil caved to (some) of the demands of the protesters.  

Unfortunately, violence is the only thing that humans respond to.  Why?  Because humans are hairless apes who seems to think they know it all......until they actually don't.

Sadly, nothing is going to change until one of these CEOs or these plutocrats gets offed.  And the "change" that might occur won't automatically be a good thing.  But the point still stands.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 17:20 | 4705439 Seer
Seer's picture

"The problem is between provacatuers, black bloc anarchists"

If you look under the "hood" more closely you'll discover that those aren't really anarchists.   The first group you identified tends to, you know, blend in...

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:59 | 4705140 Keyser
Keyser's picture

You may want protests to be held non-violently, but tell that to the DHS with the mobile command centers, swat teams, batons and pepper spray... They live for this shit... 


Mon, 04/28/2014 - 17:21 | 4705445 Seer
Seer's picture

Actually, it's TPTB.  I'm trying to think of a time when any POWER has been ASKED to diminish itself and it complied...

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 16:22 | 4705234 Patriot Eke
Patriot Eke's picture

You must not live in an urban area.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:44 | 4704799 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

semi-retarded drivel. what happened to the boy genius anyway?

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:49 | 4704818 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Solitary confinement?

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:46 | 4704806 doggis
doggis's picture

the crash is HERE. it began 4/24/2014.

martin armstrong has a god complex. who the hell gave him the algo insight to september of 2015.



IT BEGAN 4/24/2014.

how do i know? - the MAYANS TOLD ME!

kiss my big round buttocks armstrong!

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:47 | 4704811 Seer
Seer's picture

And the BONUS when we hit bottom?  We'll STILL be staring at a resource-depleted world (insufficient to generate growth to claw up from the bottom).

Feel fortunate that you aren't one of the 750 million people in India living on $0.50/day.

Corruption is an outgrowth of the non-growth.  That is, corruption is more pronounced (or visible) when things approach scarcity.  It isn't, however, the real cause of scarcity (consumption is what does that).

2015.75?, could we hold that off until 2015.80?, I've got something planned for 2015.75.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:05 | 4704900 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

And feel fortunate if you aren't one of the tens of millions of obese people in the U.S.A.  More than money people will need to be able to get off their couch and move - the time of the car is about to be over.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:31 | 4705018 813kml
813kml's picture

I am unconcerned, my Hoveround does 10mph and gets 50 miles to the hogshead.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 21:11 | 4706050 MayIMommaDogFac...
Mon, 04/28/2014 - 17:49 | 4705550 Seer
Seer's picture

And I look at the various starving children in the world and go: WTF?

BItch about it is that those of us who are somewhat healthy and able will have a really big burden.  And for me, being old, it's kind of a scary proposition.  Like I say, however, "You can kill me but you cannot eat me"... um, well, I think I came up with that LONG before I considered this collapse thing...

"the time of the car is about to be over."

Just be sure to give me a count-down to the end of "the time of the tractor."  I've got so much work to do that I won't be able to do without it...

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:48 | 4704815 pelican
pelican's picture

I doubt the US will have much unrest.  Americans are too distracted playing with their dingalings.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 15:50 | 4705112 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Wait until a meal at McDonalds goes for 20 bucks, and then see how distracted people are.  'No inflation' works pretty good as an economic meme until it runs up against undeniable reality.  Every time I buy stuff I need (you know, food, gas, etc.) it's more expensive.  Every time that price rise pushes somebody onto the margin, that's one more person who's suddenly got a bigger issue than the latest app on their igadget.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 17:51 | 4705559 Seer
Seer's picture

If you rely on the MSM telling you what's happening then it's a good bet that you'll never hear them telling you about all your neighbors dropping dead from starvation.  From time to time it's good to get outside of the house...

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 14:50 | 4704823 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

Ever watch the movie "El Cid" with Charlton Heston?

Long story short:  The commander dies the night before an important battle.  If the troops know he is dead, then they will lose their will to fight.  With his last breath, Charlton Heston commands those around him to "do what is needed".  They dress his dead body in armor, glue his eyes open, and attach him to his horse in a sitting position with the reigns in one hand and his other hand attached to a spear so the troops think he is leading the charge. 

Ole Yellen and El Cid:  two of a kind.

(I still like the Charlton Heston scene from Planet of the Apes where he screams "It's a MADHOUSE!!" the best.)

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