Is A Crash Inevitable? The Spiral Vortex Of Debt And Corruption

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics blog,

The economy will decline in the USA following 2015.75 and will have several important impacts that will shape our future. The Big Bang is inevitable – YES! The outcome is to be determined. This is why I do what I do. I too have a family and fear for their future. I am not 23, so my shelf time is expiring thank God so I do not have to live in this age of tyranny too long. Nevertheless, all I can do is try to educate as many people for if they understand how things work, then when it comes time for the rebuilding, perhaps we can choose freedom over more authoritarian-tyranny...

So my concerns are for our future – not to sell bullshit. This is far more important. Unfortunately, the primary impact will be:

The USA is the only economy holding up the entire world right now. GDP Growth is collapsing everywhere from Europe, Russia, and into China. Once the USA turns down, the civil unrest will rise in the USA as well. The Occupy Wall Street was a dress rehearsal.


Governments will find it increasingly harder to sell their debt. This trend has already hit both China and Russia. We will see it hit Europe, Japan and then the USA. This will drive the trend to raise taxes further as governments will assume that they need to restore confidence within their debt structures. As they do this, the global economy will turn downward into a spiral vortex.


While governments claim to be mad at the NSA, behind the curtain there is legal swapping going on. Foreign nations are using the NSA to gather data for taxes on their own citizens while denying they spy on their own people yet get that info from the NSA. In return, the NSA allows the British to spy on Americans so the NSA can deny it is doing so domestically and then swaps the info. Germany and Switzerland also participate in this domestic spying for taxes.


The G20 agreement to swap all financial info to hunt down international capital is all about getting tax revenue to sustain the debt structure. There is no long-term planning here and they cannot see that they are creating the next MAJOR GREAT DEPRESSION to make all previous downturns loop like speed-bumps. I reported that even I could not wire $15,000 for expenses to Asia in advance. HSBC refused to accept the wire for they could not guarantee I had no ownership in the account the wire was directed. I had to write a check. You cannot even do business because these people are hunting all capital and PRESUME any transaction over $3,000 is to hide money – not for commerce.


Government will not collapse. This early stage will be about fighting hard to sustain their power. War is part of that. International War takes place either to fill the treasury with the spoils of war and or power as was in the good old days (Putin’s ideas), or the more modern version to act as a distraction to deflect civil unrest (USA to come) and to unleash the dogs of war to settle old scores (China v Japan, North v South Korea, Russia v West).

What you have to realize is that this trend is inevitable – YES. Why? Because there can be no change without pain. It is unrealistic to expect government to simply say OMG, you are right – let’s reform! Gee, here is the power we stole unconstitutionally – sorry! My bad! Political change does not take place without pain. This is what revolution is all about. Government has NEVER even once in recorded history simply said it was wrong and handed back power without anything causing such a change. This is just the way things function. This is Jefferson’s Tree of Liberty that must be feed with the blood of tyrants and patriots.

Therefore, predicting the trend of the MOB is simple and that is what cycles are all about. However, that does not mean we are hopelessly lost as individuals. We personally possess the free will to act like dumb sheep or to see the train coming down the track and move out of its way. This is why there are always two forces politically. People ask me what would happen if everyone used our models? Very simple – that would never happen. There is always people who will never believe simply because they cannot see things in a dynamic structure. They can only see the world in a linear fashion.

So yes – it is inevitable. I can rally a few hundred thousand people and we can all march on Washington. It will change nothing as was the case with the Occupy Wall Street gathering. Government simply arrested people under all sorts of pretense. Michael Bloomberg, who was Mayor of NYC at the time, was more concerned about people drinking soda than the freedom of speech. God forbid they protest against his bankers – never forget he came from Salomon Brothers.

Just as the pretend liberal Bloomberg sought to crush the freedom of speech yet cared so much about people drinking soda, we are hopelessly lost in a declining spiral vortex of debt and corruption that will only change with war and civil unrest.

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HedgeAccordingly's picture

sure maybe.. something is indeed brewing.. but likely it is just Russia fuming

Soul Glow's picture

The system collapsed long ago, maybe the day it was built - you are watching its death rattle.  Russia aside, the system's collapse was inevitable.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture



This time I think Martin gets it right.


Keyser's picture

If everyone is broke, who really is left to buy bonds? Belgium can only do so much and she's our bitch... 


DaddyO's picture

I agree with DoChen...

Armstrong makes a good case for preparation and I am all about being as self reliant as possible.

I wonder where MA got this bent from, his last few articles have been pure jibberish.


chumbawamba's picture

Maybe he wasn't writing what you wanted to read.

I am Chumbawamba.

DaddyO's picture

I'm pretty open to many points of view, chumba...

It's just that he doesn't always explain what's going on inside his skull very well.

Have you ever worked for/with someone who talks to you as if you reside inside their head and should know intuitively what they thought or meant?

MA is one of those people, you have to stay right on top of his stuff or get shuffled into the backwash.


James_Cole's picture

Government has NEVER even once in recorded history simply said it was wrong and handed back power without anything causing such a change. 

Yes, never. Sure, obviously something caused the change but it wasn't the 'inevitable' war / revolution Armstrong alludes to. 

So yes – it is inevitable. I can rally a few hundred thousand people and we can all march on Washington. 

Armstrong has really lost it..

Pickleton's picture

Ummm, did you just ignore that the whole communism thing failed because a certain group of people bankrupted them before they handed the reigns back?  With little choice to oppose it too...



SilverDOG's picture




Andrew Jackson may have resolved the problems with removal of the Fed Reserve of the 1800's. 

No war, just horrifically benefitial deflation; for commoners.

However, the 1900's Fed made up for it and killed 100's of millions and now rules the sheeple.

The 80+ yr cycle is about to flip. Get ready to lose ownweship of any and everything.

chumbawamba's picture

Yeah, I hear you.  I find him to be obtuse at times and I don't always agree with him.  And his track record at predicting things even with his flaunted model is no better than anyone else's.

I was just bringing up the confirmation bias thing.  Lawd knows I been guilty of it.


Dugald's picture

HSBC refused to accept the wire for they could not guarantee I had no ownership in the account the wire was directed.

And that makes sense???????

What is he saying that has not been said here before ad nauseum

RafterManFMJ's picture

.I am not 23, so my shelf time is expiring thank God so I do not have to live in this age of tyranny too long.

I see this doomed meme entirely to often; "Yup, you're all going to burn but hopefully my advanced age will put me in the ground beforehand, so I don't suffer."

It's frankly a rank attitude, especially since the cohort in question fed like jackals on the unjust, evil ponzi.

And now they hope to check out before the bill arrives?

Seems both evil and unmanly.

813kml's picture

Revolution is the business of the young and able-bodied.  Some of the older crowd is just as disillusioned but lack the ability to do much besides critique.  

seek's picture

I disagree. There's a famous adage "old age and treachery will always beat youth and exuberance."

The young provide the manpower, the old, the tactics and targets.

813kml's picture

There would be no need for revolution if not for treachery, youthful exuberance gives the ability to slit throats yourself instead of having to find a proxy.

You are describing governments that send their young off to be cannon fodder.

acetinker's picture

Pick yor enemies wisely, 813.  Seek will be the guy who supports your supply line- if you ever decide to fight.

Pickleton's picture

I have this (for lack of a better term) fantasy that when the time comes, those older folks that get it will form the sacrificial regiments to be first to oppose the elites.  I've got teenage children I've ensured are awake, and I like to think if my remaining mileage is short, I'd do it for them.

Dugald's picture

Revolution is the business of the young and able-bodied. Some of the older crowd is just as disillusioned but lack the ability to do much besides critique.

Your forgetting kiddo...many of us oldsters had military training and can still shoot in the 90's, and some of us can still run duck and weave a lot faster than you may think....

Don't write us off, they don't call us Grey power for nothing.

813kml's picture

I was lumping the older but still mobile crowd in with the able-bodied.  The young fat bodies and older walker types aren't likely to be leading any street protests or guerilla activities.

Doña K's picture

Similar with the guy that was told by his doctor that he only had six months to live. So he did not pay the doctot's bill.

So the doctor gave him another six months.

MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

We're all in the same boat BUT -- I think I can still hear the band playing.

Jason T's picture

This time?  


Armstrong and his computer have scored things right beyond imagionable.

Nacho.Libre's picture

Interesting the only prediction with that goes out to a decimal place is the last one that he has been pumping recently.

Radical Marijuana's picture



He even presents it with a dash of LOL macabre humour:

"... OMG, you are right

– let’s reform!

Gee, here is the power we stole unconstitutionally

– sorry! My bad!"

chumbawamba's picture

There's still time to prepare that farm & cottage in the forest.

I am Chumbawamba.

Keyser's picture

Yeah, in Costa Rica....

chumbawamba's picture

I get the impression there are already too many self-entitled over-privileged gringos there.

America is a big place.

I am Chumbawamba.

SilverDOG's picture




Maybe in Costa,  but not Ecuador.

Was just there and opportunity abounds.

Want to move there and intergrate sincerely, no problem.

Or be like typical boomer gated community target, no problem.

Your choice.

chunga's picture

Check out what this guy did Chumba, when you get a chance.


The guy who built this place joined ZH...c'mon Tim...if you see this take a bow.

JRobby's picture

Have you seen the beginning of "The Outlaw Josey Wales"?

chunga's picture

I reckon so.

One of my favorite movies. ;-)

chumbawamba's picture

Yep, that's the way to do it.  But it's not for everyone.  Some people just prefer the cities, and I guess they're betting that there won't be any major social disruption that will result in martial law being invoked, resulting in a generally less enjoying lifestyle of a visible police state.

I hope people aren't so stupid as to let that happen to their cities but it already looks like it's moving in that direction.


Seer's picture

As I've stated it, pick how you want to exist in the future and start being it TODAY!  Of course, it's best to ensure that one is grounded in the fundamentals (Food, Shelter and Water) when picking one's future "profession."

But, the takeaway no matter what is to not wait.

barliman's picture


Being cynical, without insight, is as useful as being an Evangelist without proof of God. Both are public masturbatory exercises.

"The system collapsed long ago, maybe the day it was built ..."

Or maybe I'm wrong and it took YOU both hands and sweating bullets to come up with that semantically null statement.

It is sophmoric to utter "the day it was built" since it is already far older than you. Communism STILL controls over 20% of the world's population and it's EVENTUAL failure is written in stone - just the end date is missing.

Mr. Armstrong's exercises are becoming more polemical and less informative as time goes by. He provides slightly more insight than you have but then he has the better track record.

pods's picture

Yes, you are wrong.  What was said was correct.

As soon as the first dollar was conjured up out of nothing and lent at interest the die was cast.

Exponential equations do not work for money systems for long.



Shizzmoney's picture


As soon as the first dollar was conjured up out of nothing and lent at interest the die was cast.

Well said.  Slavery with a silver spoon.  Thousands of years in the making.

barliman's picture


Your "silver spoon" metaphor contradicts the "fiat money" meme ...

... or were you trying to say something intelligent?

Seer's picture

"Exponential equations do not work for money systems for long."

Nor do they for mining/extraction processes when one is standing on a ball (finite planet).

Interest & growth (consumption) are locked hand-in-hand.  Waltzing over the cliff it goes...

pods's picture

What I have been contemplating is whether we are foced into this growth meme due to our monertary system or if we allowed this monetary system because we are programmed for growth.


barliman's picture


Going to see if you can get him to participate in a "Regurgitating Euphemisms Circle Jerk"?

centerline's picture

That is exactly how it works.  Nature is programmed for growth.  We are no better than bacteria is this regard.


magnetosphere's picture

nature is mostly definitely NOT programmed for growth.  systems only grow when they tap a vast new resource like a continent or new technology like heat engines.  we are still in the birth phase of homo sapiens, but eventually we will learn to live in steady state just like all the other animals. think tigers, wolves, they do not kill off all their prey, that would be stupid.

in fact the native americans may have gone through their growth and bust phases 10 thousand years ago, killing off all the megafauna, and subsequently learned to live in equilibrium with nature as we found them 500 years ago.

Seer's picture

Life is programmed for, um, life, not death...  OK, splitting atoms here... Life is programmed for continuance, lots of lifeforms know how to adjust their reproductive rates based on their sense of the environment.  And the predators...

centerline's picture

What a supreme dumbass statement.  Every population of every species if left unchecked will reproduce until it consumes the available resources.

You really think animals THINK about not eating the last prey?



magnetosphere's picture

wrong.  tigers are strictly territorial for a very good reason.  a male tiger will not allow other male tigers to intrude on his land and eat his food, because then the prey will be killed off.  their territory size is precisely calculated to result in equilibrium, balancing production and consumption of e.g. deer.  animals that do not learn to live in equilibrium die off.

and animals are a lot smarter than you think.  they use many human technologies, including flight, magnetic compasses, batteries, aerodynamic shapes and configurations to reduce drag, hydrodynamic shapes, sonar, etc.  much of human technology is in fact derived from observing the animals.

centerline's picture

LOL.  You are really, really nuts.

"Precisely calculated"  hahahaha.  Tiger surveyors.  Tiger engineerings.  Tigers figuring out how shit works in the grander scheme.  That is funny.  You are mistaking social structures for calculated action directly relative to food supply.  One good disruption to the equilibrium in any way and a new order is established.  Duh.

Nature is a process of inherited traits that are part of survival.  It is a constant struggle... there is no real balance in the grand scheme of things.  Even short term, when balance is tipped, for whatever reason, things readjust and some species just dont survive.

Nature, by design is ingenious.  Not because it designed itself.  But because the evolutionary processes are slanted towards survival.  We still have much to learn from nature in many ways.  That does not make the beings who have these traits "smart" in the definition of knowing how to control thier destiny any more than a tree.


MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

I thought the subject was exponential growth not animal intelligence?