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Is A Crash Inevitable? The Spiral Vortex Of Debt And Corruption
Submitted by Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics blog,
The economy will decline in the USA following 2015.75 and will have several important impacts that will shape our future. The Big Bang is inevitable – YES! The outcome is to be determined. This is why I do what I do. I too have a family and fear for their future. I am not 23, so my shelf time is expiring thank God so I do not have to live in this age of tyranny too long. Nevertheless, all I can do is try to educate as many people for if they understand how things work, then when it comes time for the rebuilding, perhaps we can choose freedom over more authoritarian-tyranny...
So my concerns are for our future – not to sell bullshit. This is far more important. Unfortunately, the primary impact will be:
The USA is the only economy holding up the entire world right now. GDP Growth is collapsing everywhere from Europe, Russia, and into China. Once the USA turns down, the civil unrest will rise in the USA as well. The Occupy Wall Street was a dress rehearsal.
Governments will find it increasingly harder to sell their debt. This trend has already hit both China and Russia. We will see it hit Europe, Japan and then the USA. This will drive the trend to raise taxes further as governments will assume that they need to restore confidence within their debt structures. As they do this, the global economy will turn downward into a spiral vortex.
While governments claim to be mad at the NSA, behind the curtain there is legal swapping going on. Foreign nations are using the NSA to gather data for taxes on their own citizens while denying they spy on their own people yet get that info from the NSA. In return, the NSA allows the British to spy on Americans so the NSA can deny it is doing so domestically and then swaps the info. Germany and Switzerland also participate in this domestic spying for taxes.
The G20 agreement to swap all financial info to hunt down international capital is all about getting tax revenue to sustain the debt structure. There is no long-term planning here and they cannot see that they are creating the next MAJOR GREAT DEPRESSION to make all previous downturns loop like speed-bumps. I reported that even I could not wire $15,000 for expenses to Asia in advance. HSBC refused to accept the wire for they could not guarantee I had no ownership in the account the wire was directed. I had to write a check. You cannot even do business because these people are hunting all capital and PRESUME any transaction over $3,000 is to hide money – not for commerce.
Government will not collapse. This early stage will be about fighting hard to sustain their power. War is part of that. International War takes place either to fill the treasury with the spoils of war and or power as was in the good old days (Putin’s ideas), or the more modern version to act as a distraction to deflect civil unrest (USA to come) and to unleash the dogs of war to settle old scores (China v Japan, North v South Korea, Russia v West).
What you have to realize is that this trend is inevitable – YES. Why? Because there can be no change without pain. It is unrealistic to expect government to simply say OMG, you are right – let’s reform! Gee, here is the power we stole unconstitutionally – sorry! My bad! Political change does not take place without pain. This is what revolution is all about. Government has NEVER even once in recorded history simply said it was wrong and handed back power without anything causing such a change. This is just the way things function. This is Jefferson’s Tree of Liberty that must be feed with the blood of tyrants and patriots.
Therefore, predicting the trend of the MOB is simple and that is what cycles are all about. However, that does not mean we are hopelessly lost as individuals. We personally possess the free will to act like dumb sheep or to see the train coming down the track and move out of its way. This is why there are always two forces politically. People ask me what would happen if everyone used our models? Very simple – that would never happen. There is always people who will never believe simply because they cannot see things in a dynamic structure. They can only see the world in a linear fashion.
So yes – it is inevitable. I can rally a few hundred thousand people and we can all march on Washington. It will change nothing as was the case with the Occupy Wall Street gathering. Government simply arrested people under all sorts of pretense. Michael Bloomberg, who was Mayor of NYC at the time, was more concerned about people drinking soda than the freedom of speech. God forbid they protest against his bankers – never forget he came from Salomon Brothers.
Just as the pretend liberal Bloomberg sought to crush the freedom of speech yet cared so much about people drinking soda, we are hopelessly lost in a declining spiral vortex of debt and corruption that will only change with war and civil unrest.
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This guy still believes there is a USA. Dude there is a part of the globe that is designated as the area that is known as the United States of America and it has people living on it that call themselves citizens.
But the USA as a financial or military power does not fucking exist. Got it. There is a slight chance that the people that live on that area of the globe will take the military and financial system back from the globalists that stole it.
I'd probably be able to survive the coming collapse if I had a (silver) dollar for every Martin Armstrong article published on ZH.
When all this unfolds, I hope Americans turn on those who caused this and not on each other.
They will turn on each other, esp big urban areas and burbs. What I continue to hear from people in passing is the continued meaningless shit talk.. Not here on ZH, but out and about.
STOCK UP and, yes, I'm screaming.
the market has crashed twice today alone- but some majical force levitates it back into the green.
"The time of the guillotine is coming."
Again. It is coming back again.
Pretty much supports MA's cycle theory. lol.
Actually, when I was in school (long ago) I was taught a concept called the social pendulum. That societies move from one extreme to the other and back again over time. Cycle theory per se.
Time should be spent on eliminating the rod that swings society like a pendulum. I believe that that would be criminal government and the thieving banksters.
All those BOLD letters!
It seems that the comments from Armstrong's last article must have hit a raw nerve.
Hey Swami!
Shadaaap!
According to the VIX there is absolutely ZERO volatility in the market. I guess the Russians just dont command the respect they once did.
Yeah another VIX shooting star in the making. This is truly unreal.
Empire Domestication: Breeding Beat-the-Clock Ignorance
Your work product is less valuable than your skill, which is less valuable than your talent, which is less valuable than your DNA. There is one and only one way to be reborn, through your productive children, the ongoing assumption upon which NPV leverage depends. Investment return is a function of time horizon. You might want to think, before you breed.
You are what you eat. Embedding the cost of financial engineering into the food supply is the last thing you want to do. Manufactured food as a protein replacement is a recipe for poverty. And children are not subjected to a higher rate of poverty than any other age group by accident. The final blow to the old empire always comes from the children of intelligent farmers, releasing the spring compressed by the false assumptions of money.
From the perspective of labor, as empire History attests, gold is just as easily diluted as any other empire make-work transmission mechanism. The point of Jesus Christ was not Immaculate Conception, or any other manifest destiny religionism. Couples eyeing the demographic collapse of this middle class are deciding where they feel confident in their children's future, and it's not in North Dakota, or anywhere else the empire is dropping non-recurring bait.
You might think that one of the global cities or a fracking area would be a good place to settle, near a gas station, but you would be wrong. Wages of less than 4X rent can only result in a positive feedback loop of increasing income inequality, ending at 2X, the point of civil marriage, because those at the top of the middle class have disposable financial leverage over those at the bottom who cannot make ends meet with empire wages. The result is net economic losses, which the empire magicians present as growing GDP, arbitrary debt issuance as an asset producing income, hiding economic reality until they can't.
Civil marriage is the ultimate affirmative action program, continuously cutting out the top, placing it at the bottom, as the ultimate scapegoat, and replacing it with legacy, the place keeper scapegoat, in one form of manifest destiny religionism or the other, to maintain the status quo, breeding compliance in public housing and education, and enforcing the outcome with law, price control with legacy's bank and wage control with legacy's government, all wrapped in pretty and increasingly arbitrary verbiage.
Once parents opt out of the control mechanism, real estate inflation taxation in this case, economic mobility ceases and the empire implodes, replacing work with financial engineering, increasing price on falling demand. Russia has no other solution but occupation, nor do the Chinese or Japanese. Legacy has run out of sufficient critters to sustain its ponzi, globally. Government unions have been around for over 5000 years, failing one after the other, for the same reason.
Occupying territory is one thing; raising children is to produce productive children is another. The empire is just an extension of gravity, distilling DNA by its work. Napoleon did not rise to power on the backs of secretaries and Alexander did not sweep across the continent by accident, only to fail. The conqueror cannot employ the conquered to create a sustainable economy. Slavery as wealth fails every time.
All empires employ a bait and swap with a passive until aggressive feedback loop, rewarding passivity and penalizing aggressiveness in public discourse. The critters can't get out of the box because they are competing for the best empire box, by being the best at normalizing lying, cheating and stealing - soft power. They can only see the faults in others, because that is what they are paid to do.
Homelessness isn't outlawed by accident. Credit does not precede employment by accident. Certification has not eliminated the private sector by accident. The US is not the largest producer of prisons by accident. And white collar criminals are not rewarded by accident.
Legacy redeems one bad check with another, all chased by a complying middle class entering the demographic ponzi, an expensive queue to nowhere, which works great until the participants can no longer rear their own children, the natural resource ponzi collapses, and the middle class collapses from the bottom up, when an insufficient number of ignorant immigrants can be found to enter at the bottom.
Legacy laughs all the way to the bank in both directions, demographic boom and bust, by raising rent in both directions and wages in only one, on the same proffered theory of scarcity, which is of course artificial. WWII was a war between Germans, on both sides of the divide and conquer regime, and the Jews threw their own under the bus, just as the American middle class is now.
The US didn't intern the Germans, Chimerica is a day late and a dollar short, and the bear is coming down from the north, again. Real estate inflation driven by wage deflation is not wealth, any more than digital money is wealth. Someone actually has to do something, other than pass paper in a growing circle, to get people to what they did yesterday faster today at a lower quality, to create wealth. Bzzt...the answer to Earth Day is not to stop having children.
What you see in the middle class event horizons is critters repeating mantra, political correctness, while they do what their peers do in 'private,' appearing compassionate as necessary while cutting each other to pieces with gossip, to feel superior as the counterweight to insecurity, fertile ground for jealousy, greed and misdirection.
The opposite of empire is empire, a relativity, divide and conquer, looking glass. Within the empire, males relinquish their role, either to obtain the illusion of material possession, or to rebel and end up in jail. Emerging countries proffer a middle class future to the extent their handlers can exploit natural resources and deliver them to the global cities in mature countries.
In a real marriage, the male and female correct each other to the end of trust. In a civil marriage, the participants are combatants, joining to a practical end, incrementally improving their odds relative to other combatants, all acting passively until profit on aggression at little to no risk presents itself. Nation/states operate like civil marriages, expediently, which is why empire economics is just another form of war.
Females are generally passive by nature, and males are relatively aggressive. Individually, both behaviors are counterproductive, leaving both in the past relative to couples moving forward. The appropriate response to passivity is aggression, and vice versa, to make the necessary adjustments relative to nature, in the face of empire false signals, which breeds trust.
If you choose timing, the location will present itself. With experience, you can choose location and/or timing. Funny, what happens when the critters suddenly recognize their approaching mortality. The Wall Street regulators are not operating in a positive feedback loop with Wall Street by accident, and there is plenty of blame to go around.
Your spouse naturally sees things that you do not, and the empire is built to grow the seeds of suspicion, turning strength into weakness, opportunity into threat, which is why most marriages fail before they begin. Transmission is a function of disassembly and reassembly.
Don't wait for the last fool; watch deceleration, to set your distance. If the critters say one thing and do another, they belong to the empire, which doesn't mean that they cannot be useful, as a gravitational counterweight in the circuit. Marriage is a 75 year investment, which the empire seeks to steal, quite successfully in the short term, but failing in the long term, every time.
"Gotta good reason...for taking the easy way out."
You might want to rethink your opinion of labor; David is much larger and Goliath is much smaller than popularly assumed. That's physics.
Basically, the male climbs up and down the mountain ten times, picks a female at the bottom, and lets her lead the way back to the top, competing at each plateau with single people in an economy rigged to favor civil marriage misdirection, having children along the way, to teach them. That's the job.
If you look, you will see the capacitor, the resistor, the inductor...and space travel. The system is SELF adjusting. It places an implicit premium on that which is unique and productive. It places an explicit premium on that which appears to be unique and productive. And appearance is a perception, a function of the time horizon chosen.
Understanding the system is not the key. Loving your children is, its own reward. The State majority can take your children at will, but it can't raise them. Prepare them accordingly, to teach themselves.
Real marriage is the cornerstone/motor/multiplexer of civilization, but try, try, try again, to beat nature at its own game, by going faster and faster, to nowhere.
wonderful. the summary here is you are free to move about the human farm managment system.
TL;DR
your loss
Excellent work.
"Real marriage" is total commitment to another for the sake of the survival of both, based upon a mutual understanding of goals.
I spent many years enduring NOT That. Now, however, I have ALL That (such that it is way past measurable). I am happy enough to accept death: though I do not seek it.
? No
No, yes.
Maybe?
Its not exactly curruption. Its bad policy and govermenance. But MANY people LOVE the direction we're going. Its their dream come true. What is bad policy and governance (and impending bankruptcy and chaos) to some is "its someone else's fault" to others.
RE
Bad policy and governance *is* a symptom of Corrruption.
You can change and fix bad governance (like changing the tiles in your bathroom).
You have to eliminate a corrupt one, however (like burning down a out house infested with termites).
All the Federal Reserve did is shoot it's load, Papering does nothing to fix the problems.
Loaded with debt and a declining workforce it's game over soon.
It used to be the market would go up at a nice steady pace and then sell twice as fast now it's just the opposite. WTF? Takes all day to sell off 2% then up 10% Iin minuts!
crash, lol. tptb won't even let the S&P down 20 intraday before they turn on the buy programs and create a positive feedback loop higher.
Why all these Armstrong's articles? There are much better writtings on the web available on similar topics. Tyler, why do you serve opinion of this guy so frequently?
ZH is about draining all the hopium and anti-hopium out of the participants. This guy is an anti-hopium vampire.
It's been corruption since the recording of history.
There's gonna be two types of people when all this shakes out:
1) Those who brought-up their kids to die for the slow-motion eagles and flags
2) Those who brought-up their kids not to die for anybody.
Survival of the fittest, bitchez!!!
"slow-motion eagles and flags"
America, Fuck Yeah!
DHS (Dept of Homeland Security) did not buy BILLIONS of rounds of ammunition for no reason.
When people can no longer buy food, they will lose it! What would you do? Sit by and let you and your family starve? Or go out and get food using ANY means available? Including killing those who oppose you?
Of course governments will use the police and military to suppress this insurrection, but for how long? What happens when the police, simply to allow thier own families to survive, simply stop showing up for work?
Following Hurricane Katrina the New Orleans area turned into a jungle ruled by gangs, including gangs of police who raided homes and stores for loot. The violence was limited by the fact that people knew that the situtaion would soon normalize and criminal acts would eventually be punished.
However, MULTIPLY Katrina by 10,000 or 100,000 spread all over the world! With no prospect of "normalization", people will not feel restrained by possible future prosecution - they know there will NOT be any! So they will do WHATEVER they need to survive. People like to believe they are "civilized", but when you and your family are quite literally STARVING, you WILL do anything!
FOOD, GUNS and WATER in a relatively safe location will be the most importants factors in survival - and perhaps later GOLD will play a role.
As for me, I have already relocated to the outkskirts of a small city in a village surrounded by a massive farming area with plenty of water, with access to the sea (in extreme emergency). We have a network of families in adjoining neighborhoods within the town, all of whom are well armed and well stocked with food, etc. We have regular barbecues, picnics and various other social gatherings. so we have gotten to know and depend on each other's families. And we have a plan for defense. We all live normal everyday lives ... for now. BUT, when the SHTF, we will feed and protect each other - no one else will be let in. Period.
"Of course governments will use the police and military to suppress this insurrection, but for how long? What happens when the police, simply to allow thier own families to survive, simply stop showing up for work?"
I wonder how the folks who believe that this is all intentional reconcile with what you're presenting here? I mean, if TPTB are intentionally fucking things up then why the hell do they even care about all this, why would they bother to try and "restore order" (when it won't be possible)? Shit, TPTB would just sit back and let us all wipe each other out; we've been sufficiently programmed for it (as can be seen by all the hate and labeling that so many folks toss around even here)?
There will be varying degrees of violence in different places and at different times. Nothing lasts forever.
"...we can all march on Washington. It will change nothing as was the case with the Occupy Wall Street gathering."
True. You cannot negotiate with the criminal elite. They are it in for personal power, control and wealth. After all, they're criminals.
This is why history is littered with violent revolutions. People eventually revolt after they realise that negotiation is pointless and achieves nothing.
"On March 14, 2014, the FDIC filed suit for LIBOR-rigging against sixteen of the world’s largest banks – including the three largest USbanks (JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citigroup), the three largest UKbanks, the largest German bank, the largest Japanese bank, and several of the largest Swiss banks. Bill Black, professor of law and economics and a former bank fraud investigator, calls them “the largest cartel in world history, by at least three and probably four orders of magnitude.”
“In the meantime, if the FDIC can bring a civil action for breach of contract and fraud, so can state and local governments, universities, and pension funds. The possibilities this opens up for California(where I’m currently running for State Treasurer) are huge. Fraud is grounds for rescission (terminating the contract) without paying penalties, potentially saving taxpayers enormous sums in fees for swap deals that are crippling cities, universities and other public entities across the state. Fraud is also grounds for punitive damages, something an outraged jury might be inclined to impose. My next post will explore the possibilities for California in more detail. Stay tuned.”
http://gizadeathstar.com/2014/04/fdic-suing-libor-rate-fixing-high-octan...
Ellen Brown
http://www.maxkeiser.com/2014/04/bankers-got-this-commerical-banned-in-s...
Banned in Switzerland - Commercial about just how far these assholes will go.
Sue them into the gutter, return the money to the treasuries and carry the fuck on with life is the answer. These rich 3rd generation brats are NOT going to gain control of this world on my watch. Public opinion still means something goddam it. Ridicule them into obscurity rather than adjust to the pathos for God's sake. YOU have children. People are finally awake. Don't give up now.
Your referring to the criminals running the banks and other financial institutions. Sadly, they are not the only criminals. The whole of government itself has become a crime syndicate. It is these people who you cannot negotiate with and, since they write the laws and control the legal process, cannot generally be held to account. Revolt is the only option.
I believe there are assassins waiting in the shadows of every politician's office who isn't a dual citizen to The Jewish State of Terrorists R Us. Coupe would make this a whole lot smoother and not allow DHS to activate. Once they get into position on the streets, they will never leave. House by house is how they'll do this. They have been through this before.
I want bumper stickers! I'm voting for you because you have the right ideas and the right attitude. Go Ellen!
sez on the page that the commercial wasn't really banned in switzerland.
Well, okay. It would be nice if I had the time to read everything I wanted to but I work for a living and there is only so much time. There needs to be a Bankers strike. It would change everything. B-ball players could as well. But everyone is so far in debt, they dare not disturb their cash flow. As designed. We are all at their mercy but we'll see how this ends. I have faith in mankind.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2614386/Tennessee-police-photographed-choking-unresisting-college-student-passes-out.html
This is what's inevitable if Americans don't stand the fuck up and start defending themselves.....
These are the first two Google search results after the Daily Mail result...."Alleged". lol. This country is pretty fucking sick.
"This country is pretty fucking sick. "
indeed, time to embrace health then.
sovereign by sovereign...
The crony-capitalists and their political minions are nothing more than parasites who have infected their host with terminal cancer.
The BRICS have employed the strategy of "win the battle before going to the battlefield" brilliantly. The checkmate of Obummer and friends is only a few more foreign policy mistakes away.
Yeah, GDP Growth is collapsing everywhere from Europe, Russia, and into China except the U.S. and the US is the only economy holding up the entire world right now. LOlz
If you realy believe that I've got an other bridge to sell. Can we be real here please!
The only GDP in the US is QE while unemployment gets misreported (probably around 25% now) and over 44 million people, who are compltely ignored, are on foodstamps while 49 Million Americans Are Dealing With Food Insecurity. http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/epidemic-of-hunger-new-report-says-49-million-americans-are-dealing-with-food-insecurity
Ummmm... the crash already happened. Years ago. We're on life support at this point. GDP is a useless number when parasites are added to the economy instead of being subtracted from it. When your economy requires ever-increasing debt in order to function, you're already over the cliff; you're like Wile E. Coyote, suspended in mid-air holding a sign saying, "uh-oh."
Martin, you of all people should know without doubt, that crash is inevitable. They put you in jail, didn't they? IMHO you should be a shitload more vocal than you are.
This, however, is the best I've seen from you. Fuck 'em Marty, they'll obviously fuck you.
What I like about numbers is that when they are not jockeyed, jerked around, and falsified they tend to tell the truth. Looking down the road the numbers do not work. Allen H Meltzer viewed by many economist as America’s foremost expert in monetary policy and the author of the three-volume “A History of the Federal Reserve” also chaired the Shadow Open Market Committee for over 25 years. He recently stated, “We’re in the biggest mess we’ve been in since the 1930s,” he went on to say “We’ve never had a more problematic future.”For more on why he feels this way see the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/07/it-will-all-end-badly.html