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Pending Home Sales Slam Expectations After End Of "Harsh Weather" In South And West

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Pending Home Sales provided some hope for the serial extrapolators this morning as month over month saw a 3.4% gain (against expectations of a 1% pop) for the first sequential rise in 7 months. The surge was led by the South and West regions - which were largely unaffected by the weather but NAR appears happy to state that tthis rebound is all thanks to the harsh weather ending...? This is the 6th month in a row of negative year over year comps for pending home sales.

 

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NAR clears up the confusion...

After a dismal winter, more buyers got an opportunity to look at homes last month and are beginning to make contract offers,” he said. “Sales activity is expected to steadily pick up as more inventory reaches the market, and from ongoing job creation in the economy.”

So far so good - harsh weather, fine. We can believe that. And the rebound too. Surely, the rebound would take place in the region that was most crushed by the "harsh weather", i.e., the Northeast right. Apparently not. These are the regions that posted the biggest gains in March.

Ah yes - who can forget those harsh, harsh snowfalls in the South and the West, which according to the NAr kept so many prospective buyers locked indoors. Next think you know, the NAR will pull a Bank of America, actually just as it did two years ago, and report all its numbers were fabricated too.

Until then, we eagerly look forward to more harsh snowfall in California and Texas, a risk even the NAR admits is all too real:

Although home sales are expected to trend up over the course of the year and into 2015, this year began on a weak note and total sales are unlikely to match the 2013 level.

Well, there is always hope snowfalls will avoid Los Angeles and San Francisco.

 

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Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:13 | 4703797 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Interesting that pending home sales in March were up  when actual closed sales were down. More Common Core math I suppose.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:18 | 4703815 Serfs Up
Serfs Up's picture

So the correct ""response"" is to dump thousands of gold sell contracts  while buying stawks above-the-ask?

FUCK YOU, you scumbag bankers!

/My time.  It is coming.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:21 | 4703824 WhyDoesItHurtWh...
WhyDoesItHurtWhen iPee's picture

Math is fundermental ... err fungible ... ummm fungimental ?

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:28 | 4703832 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

The expected response is to ramp up subprime mortgages again.  Zero interest and maybe they'll even pay you to take out the loan.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 12:18 | 4704192 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Obamaloan

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:13 | 4703800 jubber
jubber's picture
 10m

Good home sales figures including revisions to previous.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:14 | 4703803 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Blame the snow, Russians, southern rednecks and blah blah blah. Reality bites doesn't it?

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:14 | 4703806 oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

Maybee Houston is keeping them afloat?

 

Assuming a 2.85 people per household ratio, an additional 350,000-525,000 plus households will be created from 2010 to 2020 or 35,000 to 52,500 households per year. Historically there has been a 3 new single-family homes for every new multi-family home constructed.  At this ratio it is inferred that there will be a demand for  an additional 26,000 to 40,000 new homes a year.   http://www.metrostudyreport.com/houston-market/growth-three-reasons-why-houston-is-set-for-more
Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:26 | 4703843 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Toyota N.A is fleeing Commiefornia for a location outside Dallas.

http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-toyota-texas-20140428,0,2881400.story#axzz30BGsF3Jx

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:33 | 4703876 oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

great link.... forwarding it now.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:38 | 4703896 Darksky
Darksky's picture

katy area is full on retard. Houses going up so fast i cant keep track of all the new streets. My neighbor got a full price offer in 1 day (dont know if he got multiple offers) for approx $130/sqft. Bought our house 3 years ago for $100/sqft. Problem is we cant rent anything in neighborhood or near work for anything near our monthly mortgage payment or i would sell today. Guess im rollin da dice, bitchez!

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:47 | 4703933 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

If they (scumbag bankers, commie corp. china) pay off the people who write the building codes we could get faster rotting houses that fall down after 5 years like everything else is built to break.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:18 | 4703808 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

Larry Yun is one of the biggest whores in DC, and that's quite an accomplishment:

In March 2008, USA Today listed him among the top 10 economic forecasters in the country.[4] At the time, when most economists were calling for another major declines in the housing market, Yun predicted that the housing market could stabilize with home buyer tax credit. Four years later, that rebound has yet to materialize according to some analysts, though actual data show home sales, housing starts, and Case-Shiller home prices either showing modest increases from 2009 or showing essentially no meaningful change

 

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:16 | 4703809 short screwed
short screwed's picture

I suppose if the yoy numbers continue falling this summer, they will blame the sunshine (everybody too busy enjoying the beach to shop for houses).

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:19 | 4703817 NoIdea
NoIdea's picture

The explanation is simple. The polar vortex prevented all the homebuyers from the Northeast from travelling to the South and West to look at properties to buy

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:21 | 4703822 youngman
youngman's picture

I wish someone would buy mine in Denver

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:22 | 4703825 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Larry Yun. Needs to be on the list. 

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:26 | 4703844 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

Homes you say? the sheeple dont need no stinkin' homes.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:26 | 4703849 NOZZLE
NOZZLE's picture

They should have left this market alone and let it sort itself out which it would have done in around 10 years.  But oh no, they had to make it look good so the tounge cluckers on the financial side shows and evening news could tell the American people how great things were and that Obanga was a star and not an affirmative action clown.  The other obvious reason was to reinflate a bunch of worthless securities that should have stayed worthless which of course if they had would have left the friends of the bankers poor.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:28 | 4703857 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

Say what you want, home sales in Central and SW Florida are smoking.  I pulled mine off the market because activity was hot and I didn't have a place lined up.  I still got an offer $25K over the ask.  Anything that is at all viable on the low end has multiiple offers on it the first week.  People are marking properties up triple or more than the paid in '10 and '11 and double, or more, than they paid a year ago. I'd like to say this can't go on, but I said that about the S&P many moons ago. Inflation is hot and heavy, and that is considered a good thing, except in the metals, where it's crushed, to show that everything that matters is just fine.  The maniacs at the controls seem hell bent on crashing this thing but they've done a masterful job of keeping it going.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:35 | 4703886 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

If you're getting bids for 25k over asking you have no idea how to value property. Central and SW Florida suck for RE investing.  It's the only place I own RE that hasn't come back since 2008.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 11:21 | 4704020 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

I've bought and sold a number of properties on the west coast of florida.  I made pretty good money on every one of them except one, where I broke even.  I'll admit it, I took my eye off the market for about 6 months while I did the final market prep on mine, and in that time the market exploded. To my credit I made the realization and pulled it off the market in 30 days.

>> It's the only place I own RE that hasn't come back since 2008.

Let's see, I sold properties on the Florida West Coast, all but one at a substantial profit, in '06, '08, '10, &' 12.  Plus I've got one with an offer just under triple what I paid.  You've got properties in the same place that you've been under water on since '08, and you have the audacity to say I don't know what I'm doing?  Take a look in a mirror.  If you don't see a jackass looking back at you it's not a mirror.

Oh, and a FYI, most every bank property is getting multiple bids over the asking price right now.  You couldn't be any more clueless as to the market conditions where you supposedly own multiple properties.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 11:24 | 4704033 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Don't be so sensitive graybeard.  You're a loser eating what your parents left you.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 11:56 | 4704126 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> so sensitive

I'm not the smart ass yankee who got taken to the cleaners on my real estate.  Twist in the wind sucker.  Anybody under water on West Florida real estate in todays market is the biggest sucker ever born.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:29 | 4703861 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

I'll take 10. Get the paper work started and I'll try and get a loan. 

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:31 | 4703867 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

why the fuck r the Fraud Markets sky rocketing today???????????

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 10:36 | 4703887 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

Buying fridays dip of course.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 11:13 | 4704016 Laura S.
Laura S.'s picture

It is strange how much different is the situation of real estate in Canada. After almost two years of decline, last winter showed very positive results - despite the bad weather. So I think that the explanation of the disastrous situation with realities in the US is caused by other variables, possibly by a lack of buyers trust in the unstable real estate market.

Mon, 04/28/2014 - 13:19 | 4704467 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

This weather meme at ZH is the best.

Every time they do it, ZH highlights it. As a result one gets a very clear picture on how desperate they are, and how bad things really are.

Factual and hilarious as well.

Here’s to the coming decades long combined snowstorm, hurricane, heat wave, flood and tornado.

 

“Come rain or snow or flood, my guillotine will not be deterred or lose its edge.”

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!