Consumer Confidence Misses; Present Situation Tumbles Most In 15 Months

Tyler Durden's picture

After March's exuberant surge to the higest level since Jan 2008, serial extrapolators drew their lines and proclaimed that Consumer Confidence would jump further to 83.2 - it didn't. Confidence dropped from a revised 83.9 to 82.3 as Present Situation dropped its most in 15 months.


Hope (expectations) remains at its highest in 8 months but plans to buy a car dropped to 1 year lows and plans to buy a major appliance dropped to 5 month lows.


Charts: Bloomberg

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The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

Confidence has been stipped, trampled on, thown away years ago....what else is new ?

max2205's picture

Plans to join the free shit army, all time highs

DavidC's picture

What else is new? Well, the market's up...



BandGap's picture

Consumer confidence is an oxymoron.

pods's picture

I just don't see it. I am getting that feeling that I haven't had since ~08.  Things seem to be grinding to a halt.

I see people everywhere who are barely making it, and everyone I talk to speaks about how their companies are cut to the bare bones. Everyone is wearing multiple hats and there is no excess capacity.

Just a very unnerving time to be heading back down the shithole.


madcows's picture

I really don't trust any poll numbers.  The pollers ask leading questions, contact individuals with known beliefs, etc...

Polls are easily manipulated.  And besides, what does confidence have to do with the mess we are in?  This stinking pile of pooh is 100% on Congress, not on joe main st.

Mr. Magoo's picture

They forgot to mention they are only polling the top .01% of wage earners

Four chan's picture

the rallying cry of "charge!" in the american consumers hands holds a whole new meaning.

Aknownymouse's picture

Consumer Confidence is an obsolete measure. They should replace it with Consumer Confudence in Yellen measure.

Temporalist's picture

One can almost feel this summer of recovery is gonna be better than all the other summers of recovery. 

Just let the Yanet Jellen push intrest rates to negative and the launching pad will be primed for the greatest turnaround from recession ever!

foodstampbarry's picture

They need to trot Plugs Biden back out to give another recovery summer speech. The confidence he instills is legendary.

short screwed's picture

I just heard on Bloomberg that this is just a minor hickup. Keep calm, carry on....Oh yeah, and keep buying stawks.

Kaiser Sousa's picture

consumer confidence..

fucking bullshit...

why dont they poll the mother fuckers that were standing at the off ramps of the highway exit i took in Merced Calif. yesterday to see how their confidence is holding up...

its all fucking lies and propaganda...

just like the phony paper prices of Gold and Silver...

im stackin....

farragut's picture

The big jump in the Car question responses at the end of 2010 and the continued high response makes me think they changed the wording of the question between 2010 and 2011 (and thus, the two timeframes may not be comparable). Anyone know off the top of their head?

farragut's picture

I found some background info on the Survey at the Conference Board website:

The CB changed survey providers in late 2010. The explanation is given on page 3 of the above pdf. They note the car question is not part of the larger Index so the big jump is not included in the overall headline number. Based on this, they decided not to go back and 'normalize' the data between the two periods. What will be interesting to see (and terrifying for .gov) would be to see a continued drop over time in the car buying response data set--despite the positive jump in the data.

taketheredpill's picture



They don't track (or release anyway) data on the % of Surveys that are returned versus sent out.  Would be interesting to see if the Return Rate has deteriorated so they only get surveys from people who give a shit (i.e. haven't given up).  

If you regress the Jobs Hard to Get minus Jobs Plentiful you can create an Unemployment Rate forecast model that used to track nicely.  The fact that this model still tracks the Unemployment Rate (which has been proven bogus) makes me wonder if the survey data is likewise biased.


Bemused Observer's picture

I cannot believe that people still buy "new"...What has been made in the past 30 years that has been worth the price paid? Everything is made like crap, designed for obsolescence. And made so that repair is impossible, or so expensive it isn't worth it.

Buy vintage, buy used. Let some other sucker pay retail and take the depreciation. Then buy it for its TRUE value/cost. And then your purchases won't be tracked as 'economic recovery' signs. And there are no taxes to worry about. You get what you need, and they get nothing.

Food, medicine and underwear are the only things I buy at the retail level. People like me are what these folks are afraid of...consumers who refuse to buy what they're selling and who cannot be convinced.

STOP BUYING JUNK! Leave it on the shelves and force them to discount. Then continue to refuse, make them take the loss eventually. Let them choke on their inventory.