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Consumer Confidence Misses; Present Situation Tumbles Most In 15 Months

Tyler Durden's picture




 

After March's exuberant surge to the higest level since Jan 2008, serial extrapolators drew their lines and proclaimed that Consumer Confidence would jump further to 83.2 - it didn't. Confidence dropped from a revised 83.9 to 82.3 as Present Situation dropped its most in 15 months.

 

Hope (expectations) remains at its highest in 8 months but plans to buy a car dropped to 1 year lows and plans to buy a major appliance dropped to 5 month lows.

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 04/29/2014 - 10:12 | 4707533 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

Confidence has been stipped, trampled on, thown away years ago....what else is new ?

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 10:31 | 4707612 max2205
max2205's picture

Plans to join the free shit army, all time highs

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 10:49 | 4707700 DavidC
DavidC's picture

What else is new? Well, the market's up...

 

DavidC

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 10:13 | 4707539 BandGap
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Consumer confidence is an oxymoron.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 10:44 | 4707677 pods
pods's picture

I just don't see it. I am getting that feeling that I haven't had since ~08.  Things seem to be grinding to a halt.

I see people everywhere who are barely making it, and everyone I talk to speaks about how their companies are cut to the bare bones. Everyone is wearing multiple hats and there is no excess capacity.

Just a very unnerving time to be heading back down the shithole.

pods

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 10:13 | 4707540 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

CONfidence

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 10:14 | 4707541 madcows
madcows's picture

I really don't trust any poll numbers.  The pollers ask leading questions, contact individuals with known beliefs, etc...

Polls are easily manipulated.  And besides, what does confidence have to do with the mess we are in?  This stinking pile of pooh is 100% on Congress, not on joe main st.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 10:17 | 4707552 Mr. Magoo
Mr. Magoo's picture

They forgot to mention they are only polling the top .01% of wage earners

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 10:15 | 4707544 Four chan
Four chan's picture

the rallying cry of "charge!" in the american consumers hands holds a whole new meaning.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 10:15 | 4707545 Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

Consumer Confidence is an obsolete measure. They should replace it with Consumer Confudence in Yellen measure.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 10:16 | 4707547 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

One can almost feel this summer of recovery is gonna be better than all the other summers of recovery. 

Just let the Yanet Jellen push intrest rates to negative and the launching pad will be primed for the greatest turnaround from recession ever!

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 10:44 | 4707678 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

They need to trot Plugs Biden back out to give another recovery summer speech. The confidence he instills is legendary.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 10:18 | 4707559 short screwed
short screwed's picture

I just heard on Bloomberg that this is just a minor hickup. Keep calm, carry on....Oh yeah, and keep buying stawks.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 10:20 | 4707568 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

consumer confidence..

fucking bullshit...

why dont they poll the mother fuckers that were standing at the off ramps of the highway exit i took in Merced Calif. yesterday to see how their confidence is holding up...

its all fucking lies and propaganda...

just like the phony paper prices of Gold and Silver...

im stackin....

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 10:27 | 4707597 farragut
farragut's picture

The big jump in the Car question responses at the end of 2010 and the continued high response makes me think they changed the wording of the question between 2010 and 2011 (and thus, the two timeframes may not be comparable). Anyone know off the top of their head?

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 11:21 | 4707835 farragut
farragut's picture

I found some background info on the Survey at the Conference Board website:

http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/TechnicalPDF_4134_1298367...

The CB changed survey providers in late 2010. The explanation is given on page 3 of the above pdf. They note the car question is not part of the larger Index so the big jump is not included in the overall headline number. Based on this, they decided not to go back and 'normalize' the data between the two periods. What will be interesting to see (and terrifying for .gov) would be to see a continued drop over time in the car buying response data set--despite the positive jump in the data.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 11:55 | 4707998 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

 

 

They don't track (or release anyway) data on the % of Surveys that are returned versus sent out.  Would be interesting to see if the Return Rate has deteriorated so they only get surveys from people who give a shit (i.e. haven't given up).  

If you regress the Jobs Hard to Get minus Jobs Plentiful you can create an Unemployment Rate forecast model that used to track nicely.  The fact that this model still tracks the Unemployment Rate (which has been proven bogus) makes me wonder if the survey data is likewise biased.

 

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 12:58 | 4708381 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

I cannot believe that people still buy "new"...What has been made in the past 30 years that has been worth the price paid? Everything is made like crap, designed for obsolescence. And made so that repair is impossible, or so expensive it isn't worth it.

Buy vintage, buy used. Let some other sucker pay retail and take the depreciation. Then buy it for its TRUE value/cost. And then your purchases won't be tracked as 'economic recovery' signs. And there are no taxes to worry about. You get what you need, and they get nothing.

Food, medicine and underwear are the only things I buy at the retail level. People like me are what these folks are afraid of...consumers who refuse to buy what they're selling and who cannot be convinced.

STOP BUYING JUNK! Leave it on the shelves and force them to discount. Then continue to refuse, make them take the loss eventually. Let them choke on their inventory.

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