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"It's Not The Economy, Stupid; It's Tuesday"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Housing data weaker than expected? Check. Consumer confidence weaker than expected? Check. New cycle highs in stocks - check, check, and check. Why not - after all, as we noted this morning, what really matters is JPY and the fact that it's Tuesday. The Dow is now practically unchanged year-to-date... but ex-Tuesdays is down over 7%. Despite stocks hitting new highs, treasury yields continue to slide, gold is up, and credit markets are not making new tights. Just remember, when it comes to investing, "it's not the economy, stupid! It's Tuesday.. oh and tomorrow is FOMC."

 

Year-to-date - it's all Tuesday...

 

It's Tuesday and the Dow is up 0.6% - almost 50% more than a normnal Tuesday

 

And you always buy before FOMC...

We document large average excess returns on U.S. equities in anticipation of monetary policy decisions made at scheduled meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in the past few decades. These pre-FOMC returns have increased over time and account for sizable fractions of total annual realized stock returns.

 

While other major international equity indices experienced similar pre-FOMC returns, we find no such effect in U.S. Treasury securities and money market futures.

 

Other major U.S. macroeconomic new announcements also do not give rise to pre-announcement excess equity returns.

 

Pre-FOMC returns are higher in periods when the slope of the Treasury yield curve is low, implied equity market volatility is high, and when past pre-FOMC returns have been high.

Credit ain't buying it...

 

and nor are Treasuries...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 04/29/2014 - 14:02 | 4708728 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

In addition, aren't some options about to expire...

mayday, mayday, mayday...

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 14:03 | 4708738 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Tuesday's the day Warren B. and George S. have their puts and hedges placed and trimmed.  All set.  The fix is in.  Bennie, Jamie, Harry, Nancy, Janet and the whole gang are there!  What a monster's ball.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 14:09 | 4708760 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

I used to worry about my investments. But now I find investing is easy since they've adopted the new schedule.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 14:10 | 4708773 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

BTFT

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 14:09 | 4708765 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

rigged...

the Fraud Market is irrelvant...

BUY FUCKING PHYSICAL SILVER AND GOLD...

stack - 

P   E    R    I   O   D.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 14:16 | 4708790 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Gold has no function in society.  You're wasting your time.

Buy farmland.  That has clear, explicit, universally understood purpose.

And btw, money isn't going to matter.  Only oil does.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 14:22 | 4708810 maskone909
maskone909's picture

There will always be money. And gold and silver will always meet that definition.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 14:22 | 4708811 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

yeah, ur right -

that is if u ignore 5,000 fucking years of history...

the only time being wasted is yours talkin to me...

tic, toc....good day.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 14:32 | 4708862 TannyDanner
TannyDanner's picture

It's not gold or farmland, both can and likely will be great places to store your wealth. And as for your last comment, if oil matters, then so will money.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 14:57 | 4708941 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

The only downside to holding land is that you cannot "run away" from trouble taking your store of value with you. and someone with a small group of armed men can come along and take it from you. If things fall apart land holders need to be willing to kill people -- all kinds of people, all the time -- or be overun.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:16 | 4709023 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

well unless Russia bails out the Gold Market PMs will be down at least 3 percent tomorrow....  Calling the bottom in PMs before the ineveitable rise will be a challenge.  I have been stacking silver because of a lower intrinsic value.....

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 14:11 | 4708772 maskone909
maskone909's picture

OT but

I cant believe this clippers sterling shit. Apparently you cant have personal beliefs in the nba. Meta world peace beats the shit outta fans. White fans btw. He is a fuckin psychopath. Shaq is virtually retarded. But hey thats cool oh yeah and kobe rapes white women /rant

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 14:28 | 4708844 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

and Larry Johnson calling for an all-black league ???  Is that what I read?

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 14:35 | 4708871 maskone909
maskone909's picture

Good luck with that larry. Does BET even exist anymore? Do black folks even question who owned bet or commisions the NBA? Or who writes the checks in hollywood?

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:00 | 4708952 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

If we're going OT about sports: I fed Chris Culliver of the SF 49ers to a tiger:

http://fedtoatiger.blogspot.com/2014/04/chris-culliver-of-sf-49ers-is-fe...

Why? Because he sucks.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 14:11 | 4708775 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

GDP read also.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 14:15 | 4708787 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

That market movement is all related to the upcoming NBA annoucement.  CNN has gone full retard and said that this will be an historic press conference and will have earth shattering consequences and that people will be watching from around the world.

It's gotten so ludricrous that I just have to watch this train wreck.  I have other shit to be doing but this might be the all time dumbest thing ever to get into the media cycle.  Makes you wonder if shit went south with our latest military adventures in Yemen?  Did the militia clean house over at Cliven's place?  Something has to be going on behind this truckload of bullshit.   

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 14:27 | 4708831 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

Yep'r, I remember this in DOW theory 101: "The market shall always go up on Tuesday"

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 14:27 | 4708837 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Amazing, it must be POMOMO Tuesday.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 14:59 | 4708951 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

last year i remember as well, like the first 20 tuesdays ( not exadirating) were all up days.

 

i want this thing to implode already, id give anything

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:16 | 4709024 Whootie_who
Whootie_who's picture

The trick is that it does implode my bet is that it will be on a tuesday.. all the Sheeple lined up for the Pop.. will all be stunned by the DROP, Bears will be out of the water, and as always SKYNET and her ALGO's win

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 16:56 | 4709395 AndrewJacksonsGhost
AndrewJacksonsGhost's picture

Get your 6.0 Recovery Summer® this year, release date tentatively May 19th.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 19:59 | 4710026 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

Tuesday is when the fucking toner shipment arrives at the Fed.

 

Tuesday is also when Janet wears her strap-on to the office.

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