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Stocks Are Up - Just Don't Tell Volume, Bonds, Credit, Or JPY

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It appears the only thing holding stocks up this afternoon (as volume dries up entirely) is the fact that it's Tuesday...

 

Volume is disappearing...

 

Treasuries are not loving it...

 

Nor is JPY carry...

 

And credit markets don't seem too excited...

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:07 | 4708982 Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

Russian sanctions. They ain't buying overpriced shit US stocks

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:18 | 4709028 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

#notrigged  

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:43 | 4709116 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

#epicfail

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:56 | 4709159 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Another full-retard Tuesday in completely unrigged US American stawk land.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:09 | 4708984 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

All those stocks that push the market up are usually going up 5 times the index % gain.
So that tells me that those stocks are indeed pushing the market up and that they do it through options.
So all this "extra value" is through rented stocks and don't add any true value to he market.

So te government buys bonds from banks....
and the banks buy options with it...
yeah...
we're safe...what a sound investment that is...

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:10 | 4708995 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Its like borrowing money to buy a happy meal.  

The Fed will backstop me. Now, where is my little toy? 

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:48 | 4709125 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

If the happy meal cost a million billion dollars.  

Have fun on your yachts you bankster pigs!  See you in hell!!

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:12 | 4709002 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

The only "value" these guys care about is YIELD...dividend yield.  Dividends, dividends, dividends...

Waiting anxiously for the free money to run out (and buybacks to END).  And for the first forced dividend cuts. 

And for a little honesty to return.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:08 | 4708990 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Fucking rigged.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:11 | 4708996 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

bwah, I'm already counting on it. every monday evening before close I buy calls and sellthem in 30 minutes.
I must say it's dang profitable! Made 19% today, last week I made 22%

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 16:03 | 4709193 locklimit
locklimit's picture

next week you will lose 100%

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:09 | 4708992 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

C'mon Janet, quit giving out free hamburgers.

If Wall Street Wimpy is so strong and honest cut the freebies and charge him 6% on advance hamburgers.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:10 | 4708993 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

On no volume the major players can levitate anything...it only works if it encourages more money in.  But when it has to stop one day...look out below....

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:10 | 4708994 DetectiveStern
DetectiveStern's picture

The start?

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:16 | 4709021 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

When it does start ... be ready.  We will have to stop them from engineering another save the banks by selling Main Street down the river.

Screw'em

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:22 | 4709038 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

There is no stopping them. The Oligarch's Handbook says: when presented with contrarian evidence you never change course, you simply double down.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 16:01 | 4709184 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

So ... you are for giving up without trying?  Why are you here?  

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:12 | 4709004 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

well we have not needed volume for the last five years so i am not sure why that needs to change now. The only question is are we back to btfd or are we going to fail at breaking above these levels again.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:18 | 4709025 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

Seems likely that it will fail again and again over the next few weeks or months.  Stocks will bounce around just below their highs, with the little plunges like we saw last month but making new, lower highs repeatedly.  Treading water.

It will take an exogenous shock to have a real sell attempt develop...maybe the cheap money-dependent will get a scare from the CBs...or some big favourite stock will have cashflow problems develop and be forced to cut yield...

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:15 | 4709018 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

repeat after me. The stock market does not care about Ukraine.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 16:02 | 4709190 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

WW3....stawks got it baked in and CNBC giving the all clear for 20% summer stawk gains.
Hooray

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:16 | 4709020 Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

We definitely need to stop the taper.  The markets are obviously suffering.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:19 | 4709031 ms8172
ms8172's picture

I'm so sick of this bullshit!

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:26 | 4709052 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

Every day you know what will happen.  It's inevitable...you know what will rise and that volatility will be non-existent.  That volume will be dismal and the junk will rise the most.  That macro events and fundamentals will mean NOTHING. 

They call it the Truman Show market.  One guy said it's like being buried alive in Jell-O...

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:20 | 4709032 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Ever wonder why Keystone Pipeline is so Political? here let me help you

The Epic Hypocrisy of Tom Steyer | Power Line

Billionaire hedge fund operator and “green” energy magnate Tom Steyer has pledged $100 million in the 2014 election cycle to help Democratic candidates who oppose the Keystone pipeline and who favor “green” energy over fossil fuels Steyer claims to be a man of principle who has no financial interest in the causes he supports, but acts only for the public good. That is a ridiculous claim: Steyer is the ultimate rent-seeker who depends on government connections to produce subsidies and mandates that make his “green” energy investments profitable.

More Hypocrisy...

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:25 | 4709047 asscannon101
asscannon101's picture

Italy is NOT Greece and the USA is NOT Argentina- except its stock market, political cronieism and economy...

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:28 | 4709055 Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

Tapering is not tightening.

Keep repeating until you believe.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:29 | 4709062 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

Me think it's rather Putin who is holding markets up, thanks Vladimir Vladimirowitsch

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:32 | 4709065 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

As with everything in the market these days it all has to do with options. They have to keep it up here today, so when the BOJ "disappoints" they can even up the options book lower. To me, the biggest problem with the markets nowadays is that the derivatives drive the stock price and not the other way around.

 

And could an "unrigged" market keep the Nasdaq within a 4 point trading range for 3 hours? Somehow I doubt it

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:44 | 4709119 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Get ready to put your shorts in going into the close.  This party's soon to be over.  Look how choppy it is at the top.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:50 | 4709139 The Axe
The Axe's picture

I agree Tyler.....but the momo selling seems to be done......for now

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 15:53 | 4709151 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Also don't tell the CNBC ass hats who are already baking in 20% higher stawk indexes over the summer. Everything is just coming up roses....shitroses that is.

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 16:51 | 4709377 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Pffft this is not an up day, call me tomorrow when the SPX closes up 30+ points on whatever the FED says. 

Tue, 04/29/2014 - 17:31 | 4709533 polo007
polo007's picture

http://www.safehaven.com/article/33588/dont-look-now-but-the-wealth-effect-is-over

The government's "ingenious" solution to end the Great Recession was to recreate the same wealth effect that engendered the credit crisis to begin with: The definition of the wealth effect is an increase in spending that comes from an increase in the perception of wealth generated from equities and real estate.

Our Treasury and Federal Reserve figured the best way to accomplish this was to rescue the banking system by; taking interest rates to zero percent, buying banks' troubled assets, and recapitalizing the financial system. Most importantly, our government loaded banks with excess reserves. This process, known as quantitative easing (QE), pushed lower long-term interest rates through the buying of Treasury Notes, Bonds and Agency MBS.

It is imperative to understand the QE process in order to fully understand why the tapering of asset purchases will lead to a collapse in asset prices and a severe recession.

The QE scheme forces banks to sell much higher-yielding assets (Treasuries and MBS) to the Fed, and in return the banks receive something know as Fed Credit, which pays just one quarter of one percent. For example, the Five-year Note currently yields 1.75 percent and the Seven-year Note offers a yield of 2.30 percent. The Fed is currently buying $30 billion worth of such Treasuries per month and $25 billion of higher-yielding MBS.

In fact, the Fed has purchased a total of $3.5 trillion worth of MBS and Treasuries since 2009 in a direct attempt to boost equity and real estate prices. QE escalated in intensity as the years progressed. The year 2013 began with the Fed promising to purchase over a trillion dollars' worth of bank debt--without any indication of when the QE scheme would end...if ever.

Therefore, financial institutions did exactly what rational would dictate. These banks bought bonds, stocks and real estate assets with the Fed's credit because not only were the yields higher, but they also understood there would be a huge buyer behind them-one that was indifferent to price and had an unlimited balance sheet. Since these assets offered a yield that was much greater than the 25 basis points provided by the Fed and were nearly guaranteed to increase in price, it was nearly a riskless transaction for banks to make. This QE process also sent money supply growth rates back up towards 10% per annum, as opposed to the contractionary rates experienced in 2009 and 2010.

Of course, most on Wall Street fail to understand or refuse to acknowledge that ending QE will cause asset prices to undergo a necessary, but nevertheless healthy correction. However, looking at the evidence since the tapering of asset purchases began, it is clear that the Fed's wealth effect has ended.

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