ADP 220K Print Beats Expectations, Continues To Goal-Seek Historical Revisions To Ape BLS Data

Tyler Durden's picture

Since ADP is completely useless when it comes to actually hinting at the future and all it does is "confirm" whatever momentum the BLS reports on, today's print, like all those from the past, is absolutely meaningless. Still, for those who care, the April private jobs print, even though the month is not over yet, was 220K, above the 210K expected, with the last month revised once again higher from 191K to 209K - this was the highest number since November 2013. Sadly, since ADP continues to not report non-seasonally adjusted numbers (since it doesn't have them as all it does is take BLS numbers and gently massages them to appear relevant), there is no way of knowing what ADP is actually selling.

Here is the April chart...

... and putting it into its meaningless context, here are the pre-revision o ADP numbers from the past three months.




And March:


The suppsed detail behind the numbers. We would say the token 1,000 increase in manufacturing jobs is notable, however since it too is completely made up, there is no point in highlighting it:


Amusing soundbites from Mark Zandi, whose relevance as an economist has tumbled to unseen lows:

"The 220,000 U.S. private sector jobs added in April is well above the twelve-month average,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “Job growth appears to be trending up and hopefully this will continue.”


Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "The job market is gaining strength. After a tough winter employers are expanding payrolls across nearly all industries and company sizes. The recent pickup in job growth at mid-sized companies may signal better business confidence. Job market prospects are steadily improving.”

Some more absolutely meaningless charts:

Historical Trend - Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment


Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size

Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry

And finally, the only actual ADP value added - its social network friendly charty infographic:

Infographic: ADP National Employment Report Shows 220,000 Jobs Added in April

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ShortTheUS's picture

Steve LiesMan broke the embargo, reporting the figures 27 seconds early.

And its anyone else's guess who he may have shared this info with (besides the tens of people watching) that may have acted materially on said information before the announcement.

MFL8240's picture

Don't know what it will take to wake America up to this propoganda, perhaps nothing will work but these reports are as truthful as this administration is. The world is imploding and they are hiring in America?  Sure!!

DavidC's picture

Spot on!

With figures like these and the markets up near all time highs (again) does anyone in their right mind think that Yellen will untaper today? Well, not me.


onewayticket2's picture

this number had to beat bc the gdp number was so ugly.  "hope" needed for 2Q

Serfs Up's picture

Let me guess.....thus means buy stawksand sell gold?

glossolalia's picture

The ZH tag line should be "Everything is stupid and we told you so."

Headbanger's picture

Or.. "There is no gravity.. The world just sucks!"

intric8's picture

We need figures. Numbers to justify decision making with modern monetary theory. Fedres will do what it wants to do anyways but blaming numbers makes it much easier.

q99x2's picture

Well everything seems to be goin great. I'm going back to sleep.

Tsar Pointless's picture

Clearly, this number means that the 0.1% GDP of the first quarter is well behind us, and it's 3.0% growth from hereonout beginning with the current quarter.


Youri Carma's picture

Yeah, lets forget about this.

Lone_Star's picture

McDonald's & the like could cover half those numbers to meet the demand from the subsidy hordes.

madcows's picture

You'd think that with all those new burger flipper jobs that there would be an accompanying spike in profitability for McDonalds, Wendy's, BK, In and Out, etc...

Colonel Klink's picture

Small biz = govt office, medium biz = govt dept, large biz = govt branch, jobs numbers = bullish bullshit.