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AsiaPac Double 'Data' Whammy: China PMI Misses Following Aussie PMI Collapse

Tyler Durden's picture




 

On the heels of disappointing March data in China for Services and Manufacturing, China's "official" manufacturing PMI saw its lowest 'April' print on record (typically a period of renaissance post-New Year data snafus) missing expectations for the first time in 2014 and just marginally above last month's data (50.4, exp. 50.5, prev. 50.3) China is still in Schrodinger-land with "official' data (biased towards larger SOEs) in very modest expansion and Markit (weighted towards smaller - more realistic - entities) in considerable contraction. That China disappointment follows earlier data which saw Aussie PMI collapsed over 3 points in April to its lowest in 9 months with the deterioration broad-based across the key sub-components. As Goldman notes, production is now at its weakest in a year, employment remains in contraction and, most worryingly, new orders printed their largest contraction in 13 months. This is the 6th month in a row of Aussie manufacturing contraction.

 

This was China's lowest April Manufacturing PMI print on record...

 

Missing expectations... for the first time in 2014

 

But leaving the official data in modest expansion and Markit firmly in contraction...

 

 

Aussie PMI at its lowest in 9 months as all the key sub-components collapse...

 

As Goldman concluded - rather ominously,

...manufacturing conditions remain very challenging despite the considerable monetary policy easing by the RBA. Moreover, with the recent appreciation in the AUD now adding to the headwinds facing this sector, a meaningful recovery in manufacturing sector activity still seems some way away.

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Wed, 04/30/2014 - 21:16 | 4714502 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Extremely bullish news!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 21:22 | 4714513 espirit
espirit's picture

Blame it on the weather.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 21:24 | 4714522 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

US has it covered; stock market at all time highs, unemployment at all time lows, shortage of new houses, breakout is coming.

Pass me another glass of that there kool-aid.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 21:43 | 4714575 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Could this data affect the price of my stawks?

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 21:57 | 4714619 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Data hasn't affected the price of stawks for five years now.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 22:41 | 4714739 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

this will hopefully push the spx through 1900.....and 2000 shortly after

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 21:39 | 4714557 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Barely keeping head above water. Spinning down the bowl.

When does the first really big chunk fall from the dam(n) wall?

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 21:21 | 4714512 scubapro
scubapro's picture

so with china essentially in contraction (tranlsated from the mandarin for 7.4% 'growth')  its any wonder australia is f'd, and its real estate mini bubble is popping.....unless you are willing to ship ore/nickel/gold/soybeans to china on simply their word that they will be able to collateralize it and re-hypothicate so you can get paid for said shipment.....its about over folks.

we are at the end of a biz cycle, 5 yrs long, while the fed is at zirp and monetizing debt....in 2003 they only had to go to 1% interest rates, and not monetize.....its freefall next time around.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 21:32 | 4714541 zaphod
zaphod's picture

These housing bubble valuations are going to look soooo cheap in 5-10 years after the bankers have gone full retard on all currencies world wide.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 21:22 | 4714514 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  And the farking aud/usd goes bid. What a wasteland these ponzi markets are.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 21:39 | 4714556 Grande Tetons
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Exporting iron ore to China during a depression...yep..bullish. I agree the AUD still has a date with 80 just not tonight. 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 21:46 | 4714587 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Most of Asia is closed tonight/day for holiday.  http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

 So we probably won't see much action until London gets under way.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 22:03 | 4714639 knukles
knukles's picture

Oh! 
It's Irradiate your Citizenry Day in Japan.
Swim with the Yangtze Pigs Day in China
Wear your Gold Shirt Day in India
Find the Missing Boeing Day in Malaysia (Simulcast on CNN)
Beat a Protestor to Death Day for the Good Old Burma Days Celebrations in Myanmar
Talk Out the Side of Your Mouth Day (Celebrating Cleaver Green's Drunken Birthday) in Oz.

Jolly Good!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 22:08 | 4714661 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Jolly fun note!  + 1  !!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 21:23 | 4714517 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

bullish?

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 21:35 | 4714545 S73
S73's picture

What is not?  Perhaps running out of ink?

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 22:10 | 4714670 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Perhaps running out of electrons too?

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 21:36 | 4714550 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

Wait till the car industry shuts down here in aust, then  take  a look at PMI

 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 21:38 | 4714552 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Fuck it Dude, let's go bowling.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 21:43 | 4714571 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

" This is the 6th month in a row of Aussie manufacturing contraction."

Which means the 'reported' China PMI was too high....

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 21:50 | 4714591 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture
China PMI Misses Following Aussie PMI Collapse Followed By Panic Buying in the US Futures Markets.  

There, fixed that for you.  

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 21:51 | 4714595 BeerMe
BeerMe's picture

The last three wheels are wobbling.  The fourth wheel is twenty miles back.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 00:05 | 4714927 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

That wobble you say you feel is the economy "picking up" it's actually a speed wobble you know?

This machine is perfectly fine with one wheel missing...

It actually won't need any wheels at all when the economy reaches "escape velocity"

Any second now, Any second...

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 21:52 | 4714602 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The retards at the fed are going to look like even bigger idiots (if that's possible) when they have to untaper by October because the world is going to shit.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 22:02 | 4714635 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

My original call was for a pause in the taper in May (in other words, no further reduction in QE).  Looks like I'm gonna be wrong again.  A full sawbuck-billion reduction from last month, as expected.  Probably another 10 next month.  I have a tendency to be about a year early on most things (sometimes that's good, sometimes it kills me).

I'm now reverting to older expectation theories.  Namely, the Fed is always late getting in and late getting out. 

I'll buy your October timeframe.  At some point they WILL be back in.  Japan is on QE 13 or some such shit, we will be eventually, too.

 

 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 22:40 | 4714732 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Pretty soon Fed Policy "won't matter none", even Jethro is going to figure it out.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 22:00 | 4714608 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

What do Aussies actually manufacture besides Matone guitars? Which I endorse 100%.

I suppose wine is manufactured and most recently exported to China. That cannot be doing very well right now.

There seems to have been a serious drop in PRC fueled high end retail activity in HK. This is just my opinion from street level.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 22:05 | 4714651 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

What Australia manufactures? Nothing. And now that the mining boom is over, Australia just wants to be the Asia-Pac center for money laundering and securities fraud.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 22:33 | 4714715 The_Prisoner
The_Prisoner's picture

to which it faces stiff competition from Singapore's more advantageous tax regime.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 22:07 | 4714658 Tinky
Tinky's picture

I'd also recommend Pic's "Really Good" Peanut Butter. Excellent stuff.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:54 | 4715710 joe90
joe90's picture

Hey that comes from NZ, one guy, got sick of added sugar, started making it at home for himself, then sold it at the Saturday market, the rest is history.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 22:08 | 4714663 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Decent wine... and golfers.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 00:20 | 4714947 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

A lot of manufacturing is small scale

Like this

http://www.gippsaero.com/aircraft/ga8-airvan.aspx

http://www.jabiru.net.au

http://www.australianuggboots.com.au/?gclid=COzur8nuib4CFVYGvAodA1AAyw

http://b2c.rmwilliams.com.au/e-SalesB2CProd/esa/Home.jsp?mainpage=Home.j...

All the big profitable stuff was bought out long ago by US based multinationals aided by lopsided trade and tax agreements and wall st financial

"expertise".

Welcome to the USSAust...

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 06:01 | 4715201 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

I forgot about the Uggs. Those are a big hit among the kids in Asia now.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 06:43 | 4715229 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Comfortable and warm and will last for years.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 02:26 | 4715080 Setarcos
Setarcos's picture

Well "we" still manufacture GM Holden, Ford and Toyota cars, but those plants are closing over the next couple of years, so hello "Detroit" Adelaide and Melbourne.

Back in the 60-70s there was still a lot of manufacturing - from clothes to tractors - but it all got off-shored and our core utilities (and our Commonwealth Bank) got privatized.

Only idiots blame Keynes for general Western economic decimation.

It was really Milton Freidman and the Chicago School who launched monetarism and thus the financialism of today.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 05:11 | 4715167 Rantabulous
Rantabulous's picture

I live in Aust. You see a LOT of old gear with 'made in Australia' on it. Really good quality stuff, lots of steel products - lawnmowers, sewing machines, washing machines, engines - a great variety of stuff that still has another hundred years of life in it.

But new gear - essentially everything - has 'made in China' on it and is complete crap and barely makes it home before breaking.

I would gladly support our industry and pay more. I happily pay more for German made products. But it is like our industry here is cancer ridden and hope has been lost and people are just resigned to it - consumers, entrepreneurs and government.

 

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 07:08 | 4715262 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

I agree it is sad to see this happening.

The regulatory uncertainty and tax uncertainty is so pervasive, and the welfare state and wage structure is so generous that people have absolutely no incentive to take risks manufacturing in Aust.

Having said that there is incredible ingenuity and drive amongst many Aussies, they just need the Nanny state overlords to get the hell out of the way.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 06:37 | 4715224 RadioactiveRant
RadioactiveRant's picture

Food, people don't buy food in a recovery. Duh.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 23:27 | 4714859 VW Nerd
VW Nerd's picture

China's economy is sputtering and yet is slated to pass the US economy this year.  Bullish??  No wonder Dow is at all time highs.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 23:59 | 4714916 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

We will be making tail rudders  or some sort of thing for the f35, and the way those things fall apart, we may be making a lot of them

 

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 02:11 | 4715069 Setarcos
Setarcos's picture

Yep F 35s!!  Just what we need ... and the RAAF is a joke anyway - as if it could defend the Australian land mass IF some demented foreign power decided to invade the Dry Continent, which is over-populated at about 23 million cramped into the coastal strips.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 01:56 | 4715058 Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

Ummm the Aus PMI probably reflects the true Chinese PMI  more than most think.

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