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GDP Shocker: US Economic Growth Crashes To Just 0.1% In Q1

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Despite consensus at 1.2% growth QoQ, the "weather" destroyed the fragile stimulus-led economy of the US which managed only a de minimus +0.1% QoQ growth (the lowest since Q1 2011). However, as Steve Liesman noted on the heels of Mark Zandi's comments "basically ignore this number" - ok then. Spending on Services, however, surged by the most since 2000 - heralded as great news by some talking heads - but is merely a reflection of the surge in healthcare and heating costs (imagine if it had not been cold and if Obamacare hadn't saved us). As a reminder - this is the growth that is occurring as QE has run its course, as stimulus ends, and as escape velocity nears... if the "weather" can do this much damage to the US economy, should stocks really be trading at the multiple of exuberant future hope that they are?

 

Oops!

 

The full breakdown of GDP components:

And here's what everyone's favorite economist, who was off only by around 1900%, thought:

 

 

 

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Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:40 | 4711376 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Bearish hockey sticks. 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:42 | 4711389 gafgroocK
gafgroocK's picture

 

 

 

 

No worries, World War III will bump up the number by the end of the year.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:43 | 4711404 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

Gotta start pushing sentiment and expectations toward desperation sooner or later.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:48 | 4711417 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

In the old days before Fraud Street was totally rigged, we would be down over 200 pts on news like this. Not anymore!! We'll be up 150 by the end of the session.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:53 | 4711432 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Who knew that lousy weather could have such an impact on exports.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:03 | 4711472 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

The dad gum Ruskies aren't doing their part and buying American.  

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:29 | 4711601 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Ask Yellen and her newly approved vice-chair if they have any new tricks?

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:31 | 4711612 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Well thank Obama for broken windows.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:29 | 4712780 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

Truthseeker, that link was crap. If you or yours want to use the word capitalism ( in any form) , go learn what it is. I have not seen it in the USA in my lifetime. 

                   Maverick

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:03 | 4711474 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

So when does the recession become official? When some extremely-smart academic functionary in a suit and tie says so? 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:13 | 4711513 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

When policy makers don't get what they want, they'll allow/orchestrate a selloff...you know, to teach you a lesson.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:17 | 4711531 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

Hmm... Luck for us THEY don't understand the cascading domino-like properties of this inextricably-linked emergently-complex HFT-algo-driven derivative-clogged world-o-finance we inhabit. One big sellofff and kaboom goes the dynamite.

I mean, The people in positions of power are too fucking stupid to understand the system, which alos means they are too stupid to know how to save it, or that it CAN'T be saved. So... good... I think.?.?.?.?.?

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:17 | 4711539 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Mark Thorton says it's a matter of comparing the Dow with the number of skyscrapers built. 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:37 | 4711640 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

As soon as the Republicans get control of the Senate as well.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:53 | 4711430 knukles
knukles's picture

Anyone but me note that consumption was still healthy and factors like exports, investment and government were the drags, the contractions?
The contractions are by and large, not weather related.

For Fucks Sake

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:59 | 4711458 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

simple solution:  REVISE IT! 

Then revise it again...and again...and again...and again...and again...and again...and again...

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:14 | 4711518 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

 

 

 

Problem:

 Counterfeiting is the fuel of tyranny.

 

Solution: 

Enforce Chapter 6, Section 19 of the Coinage Act of 1792.

Repeal the Coinage Acts of 1965, 1873, 1864, 1857, 1849, and 1834.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:14 | 4711520 madcows
madcows's picture

I'd like to know why government spending is actually part of GDP.  They have to either tax the money or borrow the money.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:35 | 4711633 pods
pods's picture

And they are all hush hush on how expanding the money base fluffs the numbers.

pods

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:16 | 4712443 BeerMe
BeerMe's picture

GDP or Government Debt Program

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 10:30 | 4711897 kellycriterion
kellycriterion's picture

Now just imagine no tax evasion or avoidance. Where would consumption be?

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:44 | 4711408 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

US dollar gettin bitch-slapped

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:47 | 4711415 Rubbish
Rubbish's picture

Luuuuuucy !!!

 

Yes, Ricky...

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:10 | 4711505 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

and the Dow futures are...GREEN! wtf??

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:13 | 4711515 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

It certainly does appear to be falling like a rock.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:47 | 4711413 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

.     .

  0

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:57 | 4711449 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

World War III worries are silly. Before WW I and II the various countries had enormous standing armies ready to go. Today, the crack Ukranian soldiers have their weapons confiscated by a bunch of soccer moms and the NATO air force runs out of ammo after bombing Libya for 3 days. Can't compare the situations.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:44 | 4711395 Momauguin Joe
Momauguin Joe's picture

WOAR!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:23 | 4711574 jay35
jay35's picture

With GDP growth that low, we're almost certainly going to war. :(

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:42 | 4711382 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Holy fuckashit! Holy fuckashit!

Was it something we said??

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:43 | 4711386 Looney
Looney's picture

0.1%!!! Winnnnning!

Charlie Sheen for Treasury Secretary! ;-)

Looney

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:55 | 4711438 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

Let's all get high and fuck!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:04 | 4711476 Looney
Looney's picture

Is it OK to invite a few GIRLS for the "fucking"? ;-)

Looney

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:15 | 4711530 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

Sure thing. Whatever hole you prefer.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:56 | 4711444 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Hardly discernable from baseline noise.

Steve Liesman - ignore reality and press on.

Sigh.

Why are mining stocks hopping while PMs stagnate? Somebody knows something!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:41 | 4711388 Keyser
Keyser's picture

The shill, Steve LIESman is on CNBS beating the weather aspect of the poor GDP print... Who would have guessed?

 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:44 | 4711406 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Would somebody please just whack that wanker already!!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:57 | 4711450 DavidC
DavidC's picture

HB,

What's sad is that, like Krugman, he probably BELIEVES the crap he comes out with.

 

DavidC

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:00 | 4711462 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

I know this is a cliche but his mug shot should be in the dictionary next to "smug".

Look that up in your Funk and Wagnall's!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:49 | 4711709 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

"The New Normal".

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:41 | 4711378 Kilgore Trout
Kilgore Trout's picture

Liesman is the spittle on Greenspan's lower lip.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:06 | 4711483 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Getting warmer......

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:40 | 4711379 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

GODLY GOLDMAN MISS!!!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:21 | 4711558 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

But somehow massive multinational companies that do business in dozens to hundreds of countries can match estimates to the fucking penny every quarter. And none of you feces flingers on Wall Street ever question the bullshit!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:54 | 4711742 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Not, bad; not bad at all. Your English witticisms are improving.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:41 | 4711380 Neethgie
Neethgie's picture

SPAIN IS NOT AMERICA

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:48 | 4711419 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

That's what you say!

In both the mayority speaks spanish!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:55 | 4711749 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Somebody had their Coffee this morning.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:06 | 4711482 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

Yeup, you're right.  They have less debt, both in terms of total number as well as a % of GDP than we do.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:41 | 4711384 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

On that "great" new, that explains the futures taking off. Black is white and white is black. Just talking out loud, hoping it'll help figure this farce out.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:41 | 4711385 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

Green Shoots

Blame Bush

 

which is it going to be?

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:43 | 4711396 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Grass no grow in snow you know

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:11 | 4711504 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

no...as Zandi said...this is a "throw away" quarter.....what will they SAY in 2Q now that "it was the weather" has been used up....

what is it GOING to be?

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:42 | 4711391 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

QE QUADZILLA!!!!

PWINT MOAAAARRRR!!!!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:42 | 4711392 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

The Federal Reserve has failed! words escape me, and as a New Englander this was NOT the worst winter in years...total BS

It snows in Canada as well and their Economy is out pacing ours!..

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:47 | 4711414 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Bill of Rights

Debilitating weather is strictly an Ameri-can't phenomena.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:42 | 4711393 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Mother Nature: Ramp up stimulus spending or the Central US gets obliterated by tornadoes! Wait, what's that?

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:52 | 4711428 CHX
CHX's picture

But don't they preach that broken windows are good for the eCONomy? Filed under fallacy.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:07 | 4711489 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Krugman, Mr. War himself. certainly does preach that shat.

Obumster is trying to get a war.

Leave no incumbent in office

Screw'em

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:43 | 4711394 Fiat Burner
Fiat Burner's picture

hahaha what a fucking joke

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:43 | 4711397 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

when "growth" is lower than inflation, is it really "growth"?  output continues to collapse for 6th year in a row as inflation carries the GDP number to not be red.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:43 | 4711398 betterlockaway
betterlockaway's picture

But. But. Obama said he'd have shovel ready jobs and it would be all fixed!  If you like your stimulus you can keep you stimulus and all the govt. debt too.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:43 | 4711401 Atlas Crapped
Atlas Crapped's picture

That IS shocking. I was sure it was negative.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:02 | 4711467 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

It would have been if they used maths and standards set before all the changes.

I forget if it's the UK or US, but one or both of them now include illegal activities as part of the contribution to the GDP. Makes sense considering the whole govt edifice is one big criminal enterprise.  You couldn't make up the shit they do, even if you live on hallucinogens. 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:07 | 4711487 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

it WAS negative....you just need to wait til the (quietly released) revision.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:43 | 4711402 kaiten
kaiten's picture

And with inflation measured correctly, economy is now in outright recession.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:43 | 4711403 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Poor Yellen. They will need a fake 400k NFP number Friday to not complete the absolute assramming they just gave her with this fake GDP data. 

How fucking funny is this. They had to punt the employment mandate completely because everyone knew it was a fraud. Then they rush to end QE because the economy was clearly busting out, meanwhile everyone has been piling into treasuries, and now she has to reconcile that with ZERO growth. 

Lawdy lawd lawd this is hysterical. I hope she brought cookies.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:55 | 4711440 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Nuland requisitioned all the cookies.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:15 | 4711528 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I never really thought Larry Summers wanted the job.  Now I see why.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:17 | 4712448 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Now wait!!! Insiders aren't supposed to criticize other insiders.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:43 | 4711407 EuropeanBankster
EuropeanBankster's picture

Stawks don't care.. ESc1 off .05.. bad news is good news

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:45 | 4711409 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Was 0.01% rounded up from 0.005, which was originally rounded up from 0.0049?

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:46 | 4711412 Kina
Kina's picture

Common...when is this plane gonna fly.....getting near the end of the runway guys.....

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:33 | 4711622 A Dollar Short
A Dollar Short's picture

Looks like we are mirroring flight #377, soon to be off the radarfor good.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:47 | 4711416 Golfjunkie
Golfjunkie's picture

More Stimulus More Stimulus

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:49 | 4711420 smacker
smacker's picture

Calculate GDP and CPI correctly and honestly, and the true result is negative GDP. This applies to the UK and Europe too.

We are now at "peak GDP/CPI manipulation", but it's still not enough to fool people.

There's nothing left but manufacturing a major distraction.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:49 | 4711423 strangeglove
strangeglove's picture

Took my 16 YO to his annual Physical required by NYS educators, Dr bill was $827 billed to insurance! They pay like $350 WTF 16 years old weight height hernia blood pressue and Guardasil, i dont know where im going with this but dont have kids!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:58 | 4711453 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

I disagree, strangeglove- we only had 2 kids- wished we would have had more. Now we are getting grandkids- totally worth it!!!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:01 | 4711465 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

The insurance company didn't pay $827 and your doctor didn't receive that. The $827 bill is to force people into the protection racket known as health insurance. That is the price you would pay if you didn't have insurance.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:13 | 4715569 strangeglove
strangeglove's picture

Or go Bankrupt now i get it
Fraud IMVHO.
ripping off the Poor and Taxpayer daily!
god it sucks im still living in the 80's

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:05 | 4711478 jvetter713
jvetter713's picture

Your obvious mistake is not that you had kids but rather that you place your child in government prison/brain-washing (school)

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:51 | 4711425 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Why markets fall on this news?  It just means that tapering will be delayed and Yellen is free to print, print, print.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:55 | 4711442 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I don't know about that. I think this verifies that QE has not and will not do shit for the underlying economy so they may as well stop. The worries that no one will buy our bonds are untrue right now, quite the opposite actually.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:16 | 4711525 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

We are Japan I'm looking forward to getting that sub 1% yield on the 10 year for the next 25 years........ Winning

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:45 | 4711684 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

You're assuming that economists actually do a true analysis and correct their mistakes.  That doesn't happen. 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:52 | 4711426 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

buy stocks/sell treasuries...the FED spread!     :o

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:10 | 4711500 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

No. Sell BOTH

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:53 | 4711431 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Depression...Year 6

Hey, I still have a job...

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:05 | 4711481 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Depression...... year 14.

There fixed that for you.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:12 | 4711511 Freebird
Freebird's picture

& another 5 or 6 to run if you are into K wave theory....

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:26 | 4711591 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

And dont forget, The birds are still chirping and the School bus still comes to pick up the kiddies.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:54 | 4711435 undertowed
undertowed's picture

It's official. Years of Fed manipulation = Epic Fail

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:11 | 4711506 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@undertowed

How DARE you, sir!  You confuse the economic constipation of Connecticut confetti with the powers of the Almighty Fed!  I say again, how DARE you, sir!  If there is a god in heaven, may your petulant rancor succumb to the whims of NSA/CIA lynch mob!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:55 | 4711439 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Well, kiss this year goodbye as far as "recovery" is concerned. We need 3% GDP growth, right?

Other than Q1, these are my own overly optimistic estimates, and they still fail.

Q1 .01

Q2 3.6 (bounceback)

Q3 2.4

Q4 2.2

Add together divide by four and and you get... ta, da!

2.0525

Way to go, Yellen!

BTW, ADP numbers are an absolute farce, completely made up. Mark Zandi should be hung by his balls, but, we all know those are currently "spoken for" inside Steve Liesman's mouth.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:59 | 4711459 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

wow, can I have some of what you are smoking?

 

Q1 Revised to -0.2

Q2 -0.4

Massive QE or War

Q3  2

Q4  1.2

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:32 | 4711619 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Admittedly, I smoke some excellent stuff, but my numbers are a guess at what the fraudsters will generate, not my own calculations.

I actually stopped making predictions a few years ago because the government numbers are so egregiously falsified so as to make my "gloomy and doomy" numbers appear that much more out of range.

Truth of the matter is that I believe we've been in a recession since fall of 2007, and the numbers are all crooked. My estimates are what I believe the government will produce, and, they will still miss the magic 3% figure by a mile.

My point is that they are at the point at which faking it is almost no longer possible (with deference to the BLS and ADP). There really are no jobs being created, 10,000 seniors are NOT retiring every day (they can't), and even those who do - I know some - have taken up jobs doing something else, so you can only count them in the statistics as going from a well-paying govt. job to a part-time gig that pays crap. They're a ZERO on the charts, but some have gone from $50-60k/year full time with benefits to $8.25/hr. part time with no benefits. Yeah, unemployment doesn't move, but reality takes a serious bite and it's happening all over the country.

It's all fake. Your numbers are closer to the truth, whatever that is.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:55 | 4711443 beegle
beegle's picture

no growth in the 1q but the stock mkt at all time high . goldman sees gold at 1000 but upgrades the miners ... now morgan stanley says gold will never ever ever ever see 1300 again .... ?? I am so tired of this bull shit markets ... we are just muppets .. what are they going to do ? dump it at the open ?? i d put them all in jail 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:58 | 4711451 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

this should be bullish for stocks. How about getting a 3% yield in some of these megacaps. Don't worry about earnings as they don't matter. Grab yourself some MLP's while you are at it. The buffet table is open.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:08 | 4711496 beegle
beegle's picture

3% yield ... and then you get a 10% market correction , and there goes your yield ... thanks but no thanks , rather buy a car

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:17 | 4711541 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

you should beg for that correction so you can get moar yield. 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:02 | 4712369 Pareto
Pareto's picture

hey fonz.  nice discussion between you and <no debt> last night on this thread (rates).  i'm always surprised by the insights and yet another reason why I love this site: Coiling, Complacency, And The "Three" Coupon Treasury Markets

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:58 | 4711452 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Thats neck n neck with Hollande's France! 

What a donkey race! 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:58 | 4711455 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

.1% means it's really negative.  And ex-autos, way fucking negative.

I'm happily withholding any and all unnecessary consumption to contribute to the collapse and fuck it up.  Spending money empowers govt and corporate tyranny  .... fuck them and fuck that.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:07 | 4711485 CHX
CHX's picture

They're clutching at straws when really the game is already over. 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 11:20 | 4712159 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Something like that. They didn't realize that if they just kept punching away at the same tender spots, eventually they could actually kill the Golden Goose that layed all their eggs for them.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:59 | 4711456 Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

This is what Obama calls COSTS

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:05 | 4711479 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

You gotta break a few eggs ... to make an omelette of national misery.

In Oblowhards case he is breaking about 310 million eggs ... in the USA alone.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 08:59 | 4711457 ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture

The true extent of slowdown in the world economy can be judged by the data points which are not subjected to adjustments by the government. Eg. Change in Electricity and Fuel consumption, Ratio of working population to the total population of a country, Miles driven, Baltic Dry Index, Change in commercial Rental Rates etc.

There is no economic recovery because all the efforts of politicians, government, central banks etc are focused on saving banks instead of targeting job creation which is the only way economy can recover. 

The weakness in the democratic process ensures the victory of the Wall Street over the Real Economy for the foreseeable future. Things are definitely going to get much much worse before they get better for the real economy i.e. for more than 90% of the population.

www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40231.html

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:00 | 4711461 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

So my going Gault is finally working !!! ....

Now if I could only get some other sheep I know to join me. 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:00 | 4711464 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

just change the way gdp is calculated and it's problem solved

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:08 | 4711491 madcows
madcows's picture

That 0.1% is with the changed formula.  Now imagine if it was done the old way, w/o all the gerryrigging.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:10 | 4711501 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

change it again haha

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:22 | 4711466 CHX
CHX's picture

Luckily for the presstitutes, there is always a bad flood / snow storm / cold spell / drought / tsunami / earthquake / heat wave / ...(I let you pick, add your own favorite) *somewhere*

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:03 | 4711470 Unknown Poster
Unknown Poster's picture

90% off Momo highs is looming, but not today.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:03 | 4711473 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

Spike Supression Monkeys hammering away early this morning on PM's to keep the lid on tight.  They probably got caught off guard and are struggling to shake off the hangover and the mass quantities of cocaine from last night.  Damn, reality is a bitch sometimes.  Gotta earn that big bonus though to keep payin' for the nightly hookers and blow with cheap $$$'s

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:05 | 4711480 grunk
grunk's picture

I blame it on that Sterling guy.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:08 | 4711493 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Not sure I understand this..., whats the shock?  You always have a deminishing GDP and higher employment! lol!!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:08 | 4711494 BigRedRider
BigRedRider's picture

Through Obama's quivering lips: "YES WE CAN!"

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:08 | 4711495 BIHM
BIHM's picture

1.  According to the BLS 1 in 5 American households have no employment.

2. Consumption growth over the past 5 years not attributable to government transfers is zero.

3. Revenue growth over the past 5 years inflation adjusted is zero.

4. Earnings growth not attributable to financial engineering over the past 5 years is zero.

5. Debt levels have doubled over the past 5 years surpassing GDP.

6. Fed’s balance sheet over the past 5 years has increased by several thousand percent.

7. USD is ever closer to being dropped as world reserve currency.

8. Given 6 and 7 above, risk of significant devaluation is extremely high yet interest on lending to US is extremely low meaning no natural lenders.

9. We have all time low morale and trust in government due to an expansive criminal network within our legislative and executive gov branches.

10. Total Market Cap to GDP is reaching a level and duration of sustained increase that indicate a massive (50%) reversion.

 The market has risen for 5 years on inflation i.e. monetary expansion, period.  The story for hope was that monetary expansion would bring economic expansion but this story is about at the end of its usefulness.  It simply hasn’t come to be.  So then the question is, and this is serious, how long can monetary expansion uphold the rising market?  That is the essential timing question.  I think most traders in their heart of hearts believe a large reversion is unavoidable but the key to surviving as a trader is timing.  So I repeat… how long can the one trick pony sustain these market levels and a positive slope.  We see the YTD market slope nearing zero.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:09 | 4711497 RougeUnderwriter
RougeUnderwriter's picture

Bad news is good news - More QE coming Buy Buy Buy

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:10 | 4711503 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

And half the country would vote for President Zero again. Go figure.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 11:17 | 4712145 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Propaganda really works; that's why your owners pay for it.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:11 | 4711507 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

And now for the morning funny

 

https://www.tradingview.com/x/bCK9AIwy/

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:11 | 4711510 TheFreeLance
TheFreeLance's picture

The shills are already saying "wait for the revisions." You know how this is gonna work -- everything from Q4 13 forward will be "smoothed" to avoid confirming the obvious.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:12 | 4711512 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

it was actually negative, this is the cooked books version 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:16 | 4711535 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Yeah, factor in the perennially understated "GDP Deflator" and you're absolutely right.  That number is a -2% easy.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:16 | 4711522 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

The GDP numbers are still a lie.  GDP is in negative territory.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wx87Hv2WdwY

If the government pays you $1000 to go out and dig a hole you just contributed $1000 to the GDP.  If the government then pays you another $1000 to go out and fill that hole you just contributed another $1000 to GDP.  Therefore GDP numbers as contrived by the government are a lie.  Energy consumption is a better measure of GDP and it is decreasing.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:30 | 4711611 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

And let's not forget the clusterfuck of imputations and hedonic adjustments, which combined make up around 1/3 of the GDP number.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:15 | 4711527 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Take out the boom areas of Washington, DC, and the Dakotas  and Texas, and the rest of the nation is far below 0.  

 

That's the reality most of us live in.  And it's like a recession out here.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 11:17 | 4712140 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Yep; Zero looks like UP to me.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:15 | 4711529 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

bullish, bullish for the markets. but looks like the US are far behind spain, portugal, greece etc. nice perspectives.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:17 | 4711537 totem
totem's picture

Say what you want about old Joe LaVorgna, he has proven beyond the shadow of a doubt that he isn't privy to inside information... or even information in general.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:23 | 4711572 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Green light to start the un-taper talk, all the numbers are "scripted" for the desired "Market " reaction, and revised for good measure.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:22 | 4711561 madcows
madcows's picture

Clearly the economy needs some viagra.

to quote some comedian talking to his twig and berries:  "when I was young, you used to greet me every morning.  Now you just watch me tie my shoes  collect government handouts."

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:58 | 4711575 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Well if I put some of latest headlines together it all makes sense, the world economy is collapsing.

http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=247239.msg1467511#msg1467511

- China’s Provinces Fail to Meet Lower 2014 Growth Goals
- Japanese Manufacturing PMI Collapses At Fastest Pace On Record
 
- Eurozone M3 Growth Slows; Lending Continues To Fall
- Euro-Area Economic Confidence Unexpectedly Declines in April
 
- German Retail Sales Fall Unexpectedly In March
- German Growth To Slow Notably In Q2: Bundesbank
- Denmark Retail Sales Fall In March
- Italy Retail Sales Falls More Than Forecast
- Spain's jobless rate rises to 25.9% from 25.7%

http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?board=198.0

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 11:15 | 4712133 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Put headlines together at your own risk ! Thinking is dangerous, Citizen !

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:26 | 4711593 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

We need to move Christmas to Q1.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:06 | 4712680 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

I think more the Xmas feeling cause the snow was there and in some places it's still snowing http://www.beaumontenterprise.com/news/article/Parts-of-western-South-Da...

Snowboarding New York Cityhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=keFBEoBy0zY
Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:36 | 4711638 Irishcyclist
Irishcyclist's picture

@Latitude 25 is correct.

If the expenditure of tax revenue is the major component of a countrys GDP figure, then its clear that that economic growth in that country is non-existent. 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:39 | 4711651 asscannon101
asscannon101's picture

DAMN YOU, You completely unpredictable and unexpected blast of cold weather in the middle of Winter- DAMN YOU ALL TO HELL!!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:48 | 4711705 Apeman
Apeman's picture

The real shocker is that there is still growth.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 09:56 | 4711751 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I love how GDP comes in weak for Q1 in the US, and the punditry says: "It's the snow!"

Yet the tropical paradise known as "Canada", had their GDP grow 2.5% in Q1.

Sacks of shit.  All of them.

The real shocker is that there is still growth.

GDP "Growth" is easy to fake.  A growing economy?  That's actually pretty hard to fake (and there *is* a difference between two, as the ladder is just a fucking number).

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 10:51 | 4711986 Proofreder
Proofreder's picture

Latter, as in latter-day-idiot ...

which you certainly are.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 10:31 | 4711907 Stonedog
Stonedog's picture

Does anybody really believe these numbers - or were they a hell of a lot lower and just (seriously) massaged upwards?

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 10:35 | 4711930 smacker
smacker's picture

No and Yes, in that order.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 10:41 | 4711956 Cthonic
Cthonic's picture

But, imports of (Veblen) goods are up! #winning

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 10:59 | 4712040 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

Those nasty tornadoes just knocked 3% off of Spring GDP.

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