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GDP Shocker: US Economic Growth Crashes To Just 0.1% In Q1
Despite consensus at 1.2% growth QoQ, the "weather" destroyed the fragile stimulus-led economy of the US which managed only a de minimus +0.1% QoQ growth (the lowest since Q1 2011). However, as Steve Liesman noted on the heels of Mark Zandi's comments "basically ignore this number" - ok then. Spending on Services, however, surged by the most since 2000 - heralded as great news by some talking heads - but is merely a reflection of the surge in healthcare and heating costs (imagine if it had not been cold and if Obamacare hadn't saved us). As a reminder - this is the growth that is occurring as QE has run its course, as stimulus ends, and as escape velocity nears... if the "weather" can do this much damage to the US economy, should stocks really be trading at the multiple of exuberant future hope that they are?
Oops!
The full breakdown of GDP components:
And here's what everyone's favorite economist, who was off only by around 1900%, thought:
We are projecting a weather-impacted +2.0% gain in Q1 real #GDP, a 1.3 point rise in the manufacturing #ISM to 55.0 and +240k on #NFP.
— Joseph A. LaVorgna (@Lavorgnanomics) April 25, 2014
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Bearish hockey sticks.
Another wave of sanctions:
http://www.independent.co.uk/incoming/article9210040.ece/alternates/w102...
No worries, World War III will bump up the number by the end of the year.
Gotta start pushing sentiment and expectations toward desperation sooner or later.
In the old days before Fraud Street was totally rigged, we would be down over 200 pts on news like this. Not anymore!! We'll be up 150 by the end of the session.
Who knew that lousy weather could have such an impact on exports.
The dad gum Ruskies aren't doing their part and buying American.
Ask Yellen and her newly approved vice-chair if they have any new tricks?
Well thank Obama for broken windows.
Truthseeker, that link was crap. If you or yours want to use the word capitalism ( in any form) , go learn what it is. I have not seen it in the USA in my lifetime.
Maverick
So when does the recession become official? When some extremely-smart academic functionary in a suit and tie says so?
When policy makers don't get what they want, they'll allow/orchestrate a selloff...you know, to teach you a lesson.
Hmm... Luck for us THEY don't understand the cascading domino-like properties of this inextricably-linked emergently-complex HFT-algo-driven derivative-clogged world-o-finance we inhabit. One big sellofff and kaboom goes the dynamite.
I mean, The people in positions of power are too fucking stupid to understand the system, which alos means they are too stupid to know how to save it, or that it CAN'T be saved. So... good... I think.?.?.?.?.?
Mark Thorton says it's a matter of comparing the Dow with the number of skyscrapers built.
As soon as the Republicans get control of the Senate as well.
Anyone but me note that consumption was still healthy and factors like exports, investment and government were the drags, the contractions?
The contractions are by and large, not weather related.
For Fucks Sake
simple solution: REVISE IT!
Then revise it again...and again...and again...and again...and again...and again...and again...
Problem:
Counterfeiting is the fuel of tyranny.
Solution:
Enforce Chapter 6, Section 19 of the Coinage Act of 1792.
Repeal the Coinage Acts of 1965, 1873, 1864, 1857, 1849, and 1834.
I'd like to know why government spending is actually part of GDP. They have to either tax the money or borrow the money.
And they are all hush hush on how expanding the money base fluffs the numbers.
pods
GDP or Government Debt Program
Now just imagine no tax evasion or avoidance. Where would consumption be?
US dollar gettin bitch-slapped
Luuuuuucy !!!
Yes, Ricky...
and the Dow futures are...GREEN! wtf??
It certainly does appear to be falling like a rock.
. .
0
World War III worries are silly. Before WW I and II the various countries had enormous standing armies ready to go. Today, the crack Ukranian soldiers have their weapons confiscated by a bunch of soccer moms and the NATO air force runs out of ammo after bombing Libya for 3 days. Can't compare the situations.
WOAR!
With GDP growth that low, we're almost certainly going to war. :(
Holy fuckashit! Holy fuckashit!
Was it something we said??
0.1%!!! Winnnnning!
Charlie Sheen for Treasury Secretary! ;-)
Looney
Let's all get high and fuck!
Is it OK to invite a few GIRLS for the "fucking"? ;-)
Looney
Sure thing. Whatever hole you prefer.
Hardly discernable from baseline noise.
Steve Liesman - ignore reality and press on.
Sigh.
Why are mining stocks hopping while PMs stagnate? Somebody knows something!
The shill, Steve LIESman is on CNBS beating the weather aspect of the poor GDP print... Who would have guessed?
Would somebody please just whack that wanker already!!
HB,
What's sad is that, like Krugman, he probably BELIEVES the crap he comes out with.
DavidC
I know this is a cliche but his mug shot should be in the dictionary next to "smug".
Look that up in your Funk and Wagnall's!
"The New Normal".
Liesman is the spittle on Greenspan's lower lip.
Getting warmer......
GODLY GOLDMAN MISS!!!
But somehow massive multinational companies that do business in dozens to hundreds of countries can match estimates to the fucking penny every quarter. And none of you feces flingers on Wall Street ever question the bullshit!
Not, bad; not bad at all. Your English witticisms are improving.
SPAIN IS NOT AMERICA
That's what you say!
In both the mayority speaks spanish!
Somebody had their Coffee this morning.
Yeup, you're right. They have less debt, both in terms of total number as well as a % of GDP than we do.
On that "great" new, that explains the futures taking off. Black is white and white is black. Just talking out loud, hoping it'll help figure this farce out.
Green Shoots
Blame Bush
which is it going to be?
Grass no grow in snow you know
no...as Zandi said...this is a "throw away" quarter.....what will they SAY in 2Q now that "it was the weather" has been used up....
what is it GOING to be?
QE QUADZILLA!!!!
PWINT MOAAAARRRR!!!!
The Federal Reserve has failed! words escape me, and as a New Englander this was NOT the worst winter in years...total BS
It snows in Canada as well and their Economy is out pacing ours!..
@Bill of Rights
Debilitating weather is strictly an Ameri-can't phenomena.
Mother Nature: Ramp up stimulus spending or the Central US gets obliterated by tornadoes! Wait, what's that?
But don't they preach that broken windows are good for the eCONomy? Filed under fallacy.
Krugman, Mr. War himself. certainly does preach that shat.
Obumster is trying to get a war.
Leave no incumbent in office
Screw'em
hahaha what a fucking joke
when "growth" is lower than inflation, is it really "growth"? output continues to collapse for 6th year in a row as inflation carries the GDP number to not be red.
But. But. Obama said he'd have shovel ready jobs and it would be all fixed! If you like your stimulus you can keep you stimulus and all the govt. debt too.
That IS shocking. I was sure it was negative.
It would have been if they used maths and standards set before all the changes.
I forget if it's the UK or US, but one or both of them now include illegal activities as part of the contribution to the GDP. Makes sense considering the whole govt edifice is one big criminal enterprise. You couldn't make up the shit they do, even if you live on hallucinogens.
it WAS negative....you just need to wait til the (quietly released) revision.
And with inflation measured correctly, economy is now in outright recession.
Poor Yellen. They will need a fake 400k NFP number Friday to not complete the absolute assramming they just gave her with this fake GDP data.
How fucking funny is this. They had to punt the employment mandate completely because everyone knew it was a fraud. Then they rush to end QE because the economy was clearly busting out, meanwhile everyone has been piling into treasuries, and now she has to reconcile that with ZERO growth.
Lawdy lawd lawd this is hysterical. I hope she brought cookies.
Nuland requisitioned all the cookies.
I never really thought Larry Summers wanted the job. Now I see why.
Now wait!!! Insiders aren't supposed to criticize other insiders.
Stawks don't care.. ESc1 off .05.. bad news is good news
Was 0.01% rounded up from 0.005, which was originally rounded up from 0.0049?
Common...when is this plane gonna fly.....getting near the end of the runway guys.....
Looks like we are mirroring flight #377, soon to be off the radarfor good.
More Stimulus More Stimulus
Calculate GDP and CPI correctly and honestly, and the true result is negative GDP. This applies to the UK and Europe too.
We are now at "peak GDP/CPI manipulation", but it's still not enough to fool people.
There's nothing left but manufacturing a major distraction.
Took my 16 YO to his annual Physical required by NYS educators, Dr bill was $827 billed to insurance! They pay like $350 WTF 16 years old weight height hernia blood pressue and Guardasil, i dont know where im going with this but dont have kids!
I disagree, strangeglove- we only had 2 kids- wished we would have had more. Now we are getting grandkids- totally worth it!!!
The insurance company didn't pay $827 and your doctor didn't receive that. The $827 bill is to force people into the protection racket known as health insurance. That is the price you would pay if you didn't have insurance.
Or go Bankrupt now i get it
Fraud IMVHO.
ripping off the Poor and Taxpayer daily!
god it sucks im still living in the 80's
Your obvious mistake is not that you had kids but rather that you place your child in government prison/brain-washing (school)
Why markets fall on this news? It just means that tapering will be delayed and Yellen is free to print, print, print.
I don't know about that. I think this verifies that QE has not and will not do shit for the underlying economy so they may as well stop. The worries that no one will buy our bonds are untrue right now, quite the opposite actually.
We are Japan I'm looking forward to getting that sub 1% yield on the 10 year for the next 25 years........ Winning
You're assuming that economists actually do a true analysis and correct their mistakes. That doesn't happen.
buy stocks/sell treasuries...the FED spread! :o
No. Sell BOTH
Depression...Year 6
Hey, I still have a job...
Depression...... year 14.
There fixed that for you.
& another 5 or 6 to run if you are into K wave theory....
And dont forget, The birds are still chirping and the School bus still comes to pick up the kiddies.
It's official. Years of Fed manipulation = Epic Fail
@undertowed
How DARE you, sir! You confuse the economic constipation of Connecticut confetti with the powers of the Almighty Fed! I say again, how DARE you, sir! If there is a god in heaven, may your petulant rancor succumb to the whims of NSA/CIA lynch mob!
Well, kiss this year goodbye as far as "recovery" is concerned. We need 3% GDP growth, right?
Other than Q1, these are my own overly optimistic estimates, and they still fail.
Q1 .01
Q2 3.6 (bounceback)
Q3 2.4
Q4 2.2
Add together divide by four and and you get... ta, da!
2.0525
Way to go, Yellen!
BTW, ADP numbers are an absolute farce, completely made up. Mark Zandi should be hung by his balls, but, we all know those are currently "spoken for" inside Steve Liesman's mouth.
wow, can I have some of what you are smoking?
Q1 Revised to -0.2
Q2 -0.4
Massive QE or War
Q3 2
Q4 1.2
Admittedly, I smoke some excellent stuff, but my numbers are a guess at what the fraudsters will generate, not my own calculations.
I actually stopped making predictions a few years ago because the government numbers are so egregiously falsified so as to make my "gloomy and doomy" numbers appear that much more out of range.
Truth of the matter is that I believe we've been in a recession since fall of 2007, and the numbers are all crooked. My estimates are what I believe the government will produce, and, they will still miss the magic 3% figure by a mile.
My point is that they are at the point at which faking it is almost no longer possible (with deference to the BLS and ADP). There really are no jobs being created, 10,000 seniors are NOT retiring every day (they can't), and even those who do - I know some - have taken up jobs doing something else, so you can only count them in the statistics as going from a well-paying govt. job to a part-time gig that pays crap. They're a ZERO on the charts, but some have gone from $50-60k/year full time with benefits to $8.25/hr. part time with no benefits. Yeah, unemployment doesn't move, but reality takes a serious bite and it's happening all over the country.
It's all fake. Your numbers are closer to the truth, whatever that is.
no growth in the 1q but the stock mkt at all time high . goldman sees gold at 1000 but upgrades the miners ... now morgan stanley says gold will never ever ever ever see 1300 again .... ?? I am so tired of this bull shit markets ... we are just muppets .. what are they going to do ? dump it at the open ?? i d put them all in jail
this should be bullish for stocks. How about getting a 3% yield in some of these megacaps. Don't worry about earnings as they don't matter. Grab yourself some MLP's while you are at it. The buffet table is open.
3% yield ... and then you get a 10% market correction , and there goes your yield ... thanks but no thanks , rather buy a car
you should beg for that correction so you can get moar yield.
hey fonz. nice discussion between you and <no debt> last night on this thread (rates). i'm always surprised by the insights and yet another reason why I love this site: Coiling, Complacency, And The "Three" Coupon Treasury Markets
Thats neck n neck with Hollande's France!
What a donkey race!
.1% means it's really negative. And ex-autos, way fucking negative.
I'm happily withholding any and all unnecessary consumption to contribute to the collapse and fuck it up. Spending money empowers govt and corporate tyranny .... fuck them and fuck that.
They're clutching at straws when really the game is already over.
Something like that. They didn't realize that if they just kept punching away at the same tender spots, eventually they could actually kill the Golden Goose that layed all their eggs for them.
This is what Obama calls COSTS
You gotta break a few eggs ... to make an omelette of national misery.
In Oblowhards case he is breaking about 310 million eggs ... in the USA alone.
The true extent of slowdown in the world economy can be judged by the data points which are not subjected to adjustments by the government. Eg. Change in Electricity and Fuel consumption, Ratio of working population to the total population of a country, Miles driven, Baltic Dry Index, Change in commercial Rental Rates etc.
There is no economic recovery because all the efforts of politicians, government, central banks etc are focused on saving banks instead of targeting job creation which is the only way economy can recover.
The weakness in the democratic process ensures the victory of the Wall Street over the Real Economy for the foreseeable future. Things are definitely going to get much much worse before they get better for the real economy i.e. for more than 90% of the population.
www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40231.html
So my going Gault is finally working !!! ....
Now if I could only get some other sheep I know to join me.
just change the way gdp is calculated and it's problem solved
That 0.1% is with the changed formula. Now imagine if it was done the old way, w/o all the gerryrigging.
change it again haha
Luckily for the presstitutes, there is always a bad flood / snow storm / cold spell / drought / tsunami / earthquake / heat wave / ...(I let you pick, add your own favorite) *somewhere*
90% off Momo highs is looming, but not today.
Spike Supression Monkeys hammering away early this morning on PM's to keep the lid on tight. They probably got caught off guard and are struggling to shake off the hangover and the mass quantities of cocaine from last night. Damn, reality is a bitch sometimes. Gotta earn that big bonus though to keep payin' for the nightly hookers and blow with cheap $$$'s
I blame it on that Sterling guy.
Not sure I understand this..., whats the shock? You always have a deminishing GDP and higher employment! lol!!
Through Obama's quivering lips: "YES WE CAN!"
1. According to the BLS 1 in 5 American households have no employment.
2. Consumption growth over the past 5 years not attributable to government transfers is zero.
3. Revenue growth over the past 5 years inflation adjusted is zero.
4. Earnings growth not attributable to financial engineering over the past 5 years is zero.
5. Debt levels have doubled over the past 5 years surpassing GDP.
6. Fed’s balance sheet over the past 5 years has increased by several thousand percent.
7. USD is ever closer to being dropped as world reserve currency.
8. Given 6 and 7 above, risk of significant devaluation is extremely high yet interest on lending to US is extremely low meaning no natural lenders.
9. We have all time low morale and trust in government due to an expansive criminal network within our legislative and executive gov branches.
10. Total Market Cap to GDP is reaching a level and duration of sustained increase that indicate a massive (50%) reversion.
The market has risen for 5 years on inflation i.e. monetary expansion, period. The story for hope was that monetary expansion would bring economic expansion but this story is about at the end of its usefulness. It simply hasn’t come to be. So then the question is, and this is serious, how long can monetary expansion uphold the rising market? That is the essential timing question. I think most traders in their heart of hearts believe a large reversion is unavoidable but the key to surviving as a trader is timing. So I repeat… how long can the one trick pony sustain these market levels and a positive slope. We see the YTD market slope nearing zero.
Bad news is good news - More QE coming Buy Buy Buy
And half the country would vote for President Zero again. Go figure.
Propaganda really works; that's why your owners pay for it.
And now for the morning funny
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bCK9AIwy/
The shills are already saying "wait for the revisions." You know how this is gonna work -- everything from Q4 13 forward will be "smoothed" to avoid confirming the obvious.
it was actually negative, this is the cooked books version
Yeah, factor in the perennially understated "GDP Deflator" and you're absolutely right. That number is a -2% easy.
The GDP numbers are still a lie. GDP is in negative territory.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wx87Hv2WdwY
If the government pays you $1000 to go out and dig a hole you just contributed $1000 to the GDP. If the government then pays you another $1000 to go out and fill that hole you just contributed another $1000 to GDP. Therefore GDP numbers as contrived by the government are a lie. Energy consumption is a better measure of GDP and it is decreasing.
And let's not forget the clusterfuck of imputations and hedonic adjustments, which combined make up around 1/3 of the GDP number.
Take out the boom areas of Washington, DC, and the Dakotas and Texas, and the rest of the nation is far below 0.
That's the reality most of us live in. And it's like a recession out here.
Yep; Zero looks like UP to me.
bullish, bullish for the markets. but looks like the US are far behind spain, portugal, greece etc. nice perspectives.
Say what you want about old Joe LaVorgna, he has proven beyond the shadow of a doubt that he isn't privy to inside information... or even information in general.
Green light to start the un-taper talk, all the numbers are "scripted" for the desired "Market " reaction, and revised for good measure.
Clearly the economy needs some viagra.
to quote some comedian talking to his twig and berries: "when I was young, you used to greet me every morning. Now you just watch me tie my shoes collect government handouts."
Well if I put some of latest headlines together it all makes sense, the world economy is collapsing.
http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=247239.msg1467511#msg1467511
- China’s Provinces Fail to Meet Lower 2014 Growth Goals
- Japanese Manufacturing PMI Collapses At Fastest Pace On Record
- Eurozone M3 Growth Slows; Lending Continues To Fall
- Euro-Area Economic Confidence Unexpectedly Declines in April
- German Retail Sales Fall Unexpectedly In March
- German Growth To Slow Notably In Q2: Bundesbank
- Denmark Retail Sales Fall In March
- Italy Retail Sales Falls More Than Forecast
- Spain's jobless rate rises to 25.9% from 25.7%
http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?board=198.0
Put headlines together at your own risk ! Thinking is dangerous, Citizen !
We need to move Christmas to Q1.
I think more the Xmas feeling cause the snow was there and in some places it's still snowing http://www.beaumontenterprise.com/news/article/Parts-of-western-South-Da...
Snowboarding New York Cityhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=keFBEoBy0zY@Latitude 25 is correct.
If the expenditure of tax revenue is the major component of a countrys GDP figure, then its clear that that economic growth in that country is non-existent.
DAMN YOU, You completely unpredictable and unexpected blast of cold weather in the middle of Winter- DAMN YOU ALL TO HELL!!
The real shocker is that there is still growth.
I love how GDP comes in weak for Q1 in the US, and the punditry says: "It's the snow!"
Yet the tropical paradise known as "Canada", had their GDP grow 2.5% in Q1.
Sacks of shit. All of them.
GDP "Growth" is easy to fake. A growing economy? That's actually pretty hard to fake (and there *is* a difference between two, as the ladder is just a fucking number).
Latter, as in latter-day-idiot ...
which you certainly are.
Does anybody really believe these numbers - or were they a hell of a lot lower and just (seriously) massaged upwards?
No and Yes, in that order.
But, imports of (Veblen) goods are up! #winning
Those nasty tornadoes just knocked 3% off of Spring GDP.