Pop QEez: Guess The Number Of Words In Today's FOMC Statement

Tyler Durden's picture

In addition to the relentless growth in the Fed's balance sheet, elsewhere also known as the S&P 500, one of the persistent trends over the past five years has been the exponential surge in Fed "messaging complexity" shown most clearly by the rising (and currently record) number of words in each and every FOMC statement.

This trend, which curiously mirrors the rise in Fed assets is shown most clearly on the chart below courtesy of @Not_Jim_Cramer.

Zooming in on just the the last two years, one can see how much more convoluted the Fed's message has become, as its statement has more than doubled in size from 420 words to the current record of 877 words.


So for today's Pop QEez: will today's Fed statement, due out in less than two hours, become a new record of over 877 words, or will the Fed finally begin tapering, not only of its bond purchases, but of the confused message it is trying to send to HFT algos and whatever carbon-based traders are left?

Bonus question: how many milliseconds after the Fed statement is released will Jon Hilsenrath's 1000+ word "Hilsencliff Notes" analysis, based on the embarged FOMC statement, hit the tape: an analysis which absolutely, certainly, never in a million years would be leaked to friends, family, and HFT algos?

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PlusTic's picture

enough to confuse the fukk outa everyone trading on it...therefore, the desired result will be to buy stokks

john39's picture

if they had to do it in haiku, it might make it worth reading.

McMolotov's picture

We will print some moar
To fuck you all in the ass
Can't stop us bitchez

nope-1004's picture

The chart goes up and to the right - an economists dream.



NotApplicable's picture

This is what happens when you lose a "great one" like The Maestro.

He could economize obscurity like no one. "What does it all mean?" Sayeth the rabble.

These days, quality is being replaced by quantity, once again handing control of the markets to the fastest reading algos out there.

NoDebt's picture

Back when I was a kid my Father used to enjoy throwing around the phrase "Talk is cheap."

I think it's high time that old saying gets revived.  I'm sick of talk.  Talk is just another chance to lie for these people.  Shut up and do it, stop talking about it.

NotApplicable's picture

When their only goal is to "manage expectations," talk is all they've got, as any actions quickly provide situations to react against.

And we can't have that, can we?

ebworthen's picture


To do the right thing the FED would need only 9 words:

"Effective immediately, QE to zero, prime rate to 6%."

Corporations might actually have to hire people and pay them a decent wage; what with no FED/Treasury teat to suck off of.

Pareto's picture

Not in our lifetime, but, i totally agree - i would kill to actually be compensated for saving my wealth rather than being punished for saving it.  The mantra I grew up with - that there is no free lunch - that you should save your earnings and be frugal with your wealth and above all - be productive.......none of that shit appears to apply anymore.  In fact, somedays it feels like one should be doing the EXACT OPPOSITE everywhere and always.  A good chunk of life - doesn't make much sense anymore - as we once understood it.  I think what comes out of this distortion, we eventually will not recognize.

piss pants's picture

a haiku


These fucking douchebags

Blame it on the weather

Afraid of the truth

ZH Snob's picture

it will be a record 6 words:

things are great, so please spend.

NotApplicable's picture

Better yet, four.

"Please do not worry."

Canadian Dirtlump's picture

no matter how many words it is, that mongoloid popinjay hilsenrath with have a thoughtful dissection of it within 14 picoseconds of its release.


LMAOnade anyone?

bania's picture

Zero useful ones

StacksOnStacks's picture

911.  They'll be obvious about it.

derek_vineyard's picture

i use more words when im totally confused and flying by the seat of my pants, too

LawsofPhysics's picture

More debt=more jawboning

Full faith and credit.

As in, no more faith means no more credit...

tmosley's picture

I think the rate is going to pick up quite a bit now.

JenkinsLane's picture

More than 877 and the Fed pauses tapering owing to [...], which was the reason for the extraordinary meeting.

Bunga Bunga's picture

Coincidence, but it's the horrible weather events requiring so many words.

ptoemmes's picture

But is Hilsenrath still well connected and can he break his record for fastest published commentary....

Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

What is the betting line for how fast Hilsenrath gets his commentary published. Anyone take under/over odds on time to publish vs words in the statement.

derek_vineyard's picture

and to think the fed would have been decisive and clear had O got his man Larry into the spot

we'd probably have normalized rates by now and on course to a sustainable recovery


BrigstockBoy's picture

420 words to indicate they're just chillin'

The Axe's picture

Ask Jan   he know already

Dr. Engali's picture

We all know that women like to talk (Yellen is a woman right?), so I'm going with the over.

Boxed Merlot's picture

...Yellen is a woman right?...


What's the over / under on that?

youngman's picture

878..just to show the growth in the economy..one word of growth...

Bill of Rights's picture

Minimum-wage increase fails Senate test vote



Good, now lets work on a Living wage instead.....Minimum wage it slavery folks, nothing more.


NotApplicable's picture

You really want the criminal class to determine a "living" wage????


This has got to be at least stupid to the fourth power.

Might I be kind enough to point out that these are the same people who destroyed the currency, making the idea of "minimum" wages necessary?

Yeah, the mafia needs to start work on a living wage.

Sooo... what's "living" again?

Bill of Rights's picture

Ill just shut you up right here...Always ask first otherwise you look like a dam fool....




superflex's picture

Moar kids = moar money

Sound a whole lot like welfare.



NotApplicable's picture

I'll shut up as it isn't worth talking logic to one who fails to ask the correct questions.

Like, "Why is my pay worth less and less each and every day?"

See, without massive currency debasement, so many wouldn't continue to fall into poverty even while working full-time.

The whole premise of needing a living wage is a response to a symptom, not a cause of the underlying problem. As long as you ignore the problem you only make it worse. Masking the symptoms with feel-good idiocy is never a solution to anything.

In high school (1980), I remember looking at salary charts for the career path I wanted. Today, I make almost twice the amount that I felt would be sufficient at that time. Thing is, I plug it into fedgov's own CPI calculator, and find that I'm not even making as much in purchasing power as the original amount, even though it's nearly twice as much.

Where's my living wage? I served in the Corps and went to college, yet I too lack the financial security I originally thought I'd obtained.

LawsofPhysics's picture

A enclave of government-funded liberals talking about "living wages" while ignoring the issue of currency debasement and resource scarcity...


Building fucking awesome mansions on sand foundations...


good luck with that.

LawsofPhysics's picture


wages are fucking irrelevant if there is no mechanism for true price discovery...

get long black markets, beat the rush.

Comte d'herblay's picture

Good catch.  Sportsguy Chestbump!

ejmoosa's picture

A living wage is socialism at it's finest.  

Because it's what you need right?  Not what you have earned.

Kaiser Sousa's picture

"what ever you muppets do...please dont convert our worthless paper into the only 2 forms of real money...Physical Gold and Silver..."


disclaimer: Apmex order for 500 oz's in cue and finger on the button....

Bill of Rights's picture

I bought this morning as well, the site was very slow but got my order in. I'm in the Gold sector more than silver but I do own several ounces none the less.

DavidC's picture

Is she really going to continue to blow this bubble?


Dr. Engali's picture

How do you think she got the job? It wasn't for the lack of bruises on her knees.

DavidC's picture

Yeah, but as I said in a comment earlier today, she might have more balls than Bernanke or Greenspan and a bit more like Volker. They KNOW this is a bubble and the KNOW that all the QE is doing NOTHING for the economy.

But I certainly take your point!


NotApplicable's picture

Well, NONE of them decide anything other than to how best do their master's bidding. (the idea about them having the balls to do something is an absolute joke) As a precaution, you should kill your TV before they fill your head with even larger fantasies.

The only thing to question is, is her role designed to be a head-fake, or double-head-fake?

Remember, once it's time for a scene change, doves execute as hawks, and hawks as doves.

Everything they do is designed to keep the hot money from front-running the only game left in town, THEM.

But yeah, go ahead and pretend that they have the freedom to execute power as they see fit.

DavidC's picture

All the banks are concerned with is making money. If she does something that has the result of the market falling, be absolutely certain that the banks know about it.

Who made money in 2008?


NotApplicable's picture

From what I can tell, you're making my argument that there's no such thing as an independent fed-head. The only difference being who tells who how it's going to be.

IMO, NOTHING is ever decided at Fed meetings, with their only purpose being the creation of a facade for which minutes can be produced against so that the Hilsenraths of the world have something to repackage for our infotainment. The fact that they had to hold an emergency meeting first, reinforces this position, as they obviously had a duck out of line.