This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Pop QEez: Guess The Number Of Words In Today's FOMC Statement

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In addition to the relentless growth in the Fed's balance sheet, elsewhere also known as the S&P 500, one of the persistent trends over the past five years has been the exponential surge in Fed "messaging complexity" shown most clearly by the rising (and currently record) number of words in each and every FOMC statement.

This trend, which curiously mirrors the rise in Fed assets is shown most clearly on the chart below courtesy of @Not_Jim_Cramer.

Zooming in on just the the last two years, one can see how much more convoluted the Fed's message has become, as its statement has more than doubled in size from 420 words to the current record of 877 words.

 

So for today's Pop QEez: will today's Fed statement, due out in less than two hours, become a new record of over 877 words, or will the Fed finally begin tapering, not only of its bond purchases, but of the confused message it is trying to send to HFT algos and whatever carbon-based traders are left?

Bonus question: how many milliseconds after the Fed statement is released will Jon Hilsenrath's 1000+ word "Hilsencliff Notes" analysis, based on the embarged FOMC statement, hit the tape: an analysis which absolutely, certainly, never in a million years would be leaked to friends, family, and HFT algos?

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:31 | 4712508 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

enough to confuse the fukk outa everyone trading on it...therefore, the desired result will be to buy stokks

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:34 | 4712524 john39
john39's picture

if they had to do it in haiku, it might make it worth reading.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:38 | 4712539 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

We will print some moar
To fuck you all in the ass
Can't stop us bitchez

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:41 | 4712559 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

Baffle them with bs.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:42 | 4712562 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

The chart goes up and to the right - an economists dream.

 

 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:48 | 4712592 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

This is what happens when you lose a "great one" like The Maestro.

He could economize obscurity like no one. "What does it all mean?" Sayeth the rabble.

These days, quality is being replaced by quantity, once again handing control of the markets to the fastest reading algos out there.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:55 | 4712630 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Back when I was a kid my Father used to enjoy throwing around the phrase "Talk is cheap."

I think it's high time that old saying gets revived.  I'm sick of talk.  Talk is just another chance to lie for these people.  Shut up and do it, stop talking about it.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:28 | 4712669 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

When their only goal is to "manage expectations," talk is all they've got, as any actions quickly provide situations to react against.

And we can't have that, can we?

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:13 | 4712705 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Agreed.

To do the right thing the FED would need only 9 words:

"Effective immediately, QE to zero, prime rate to 6%."

Corporations might actually have to hire people and pay them a decent wage; what with no FED/Treasury teat to suck off of.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 14:19 | 4713018 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Not in our lifetime, but, i totally agree - i would kill to actually be compensated for saving my wealth rather than being punished for saving it.  The mantra I grew up with - that there is no free lunch - that you should save your earnings and be frugal with your wealth and above all - be productive.......none of that shit appears to apply anymore.  In fact, somedays it feels like one should be doing the EXACT OPPOSITE everywhere and always.  A good chunk of life - doesn't make much sense anymore - as we once understood it.  I think what comes out of this distortion, we eventually will not recognize.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:19 | 4712739 piss pants
piss pants's picture

a haiku

 

These fucking douchebags

Blame it on the weather

Afraid of the truth

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:45 | 4712573 ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

it will be a record 6 words:

things are great, so please spend.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:05 | 4712673 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Better yet, four.

"Please do not worry."

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 17:33 | 4713848 Oracle 911
Oracle 911's picture

Just 2:

Spend it.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:57 | 4712642 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

no matter how many words it is, that mongoloid popinjay hilsenrath with have a thoughtful dissection of it within 14 picoseconds of its release.

 

LMAOnade anyone?

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:31 | 4712509 bania
bania's picture

Zero useful ones

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:33 | 4712512 StacksOnStacks
StacksOnStacks's picture

911.  They'll be obvious about it.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:36 | 4712531 john39
john39's picture

666 words.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:33 | 4712514 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

i use more words when im totally confused and flying by the seat of my pants, too

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:33 | 4712518 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

More debt=more jawboning

Full faith and credit.

As in, no more faith means no more credit...

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:33 | 4712519 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I think the rate is going to pick up quite a bit now.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:34 | 4712522 JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

More than 877 and the Fed pauses tapering owing to [...], which was the reason for the extraordinary meeting.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:34 | 4712525 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Coincidence, but it's the horrible weather events requiring so many words.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:44 | 4712527 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

But is Hilsenrath still well connected and can he break his record for fastest published commentary....

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:29 | 4712779 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

What is the betting line for how fast Hilsenrath gets his commentary published. Anyone take under/over odds on time to publish vs words in the statement.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:36 | 4712529 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

and to think the fed would have been decisive and clear had O got his man Larry into the spot

we'd probably have normalized rates by now and on course to a sustainable recovery

 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:37 | 4712537 BrigstockBoy
BrigstockBoy's picture

420 words to indicate they're just chillin'

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:38 | 4712541 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Ask Jan   he know already

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:40 | 4712545 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

We all know that women like to talk (Yellen is a woman right?), so I'm going with the over.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:47 | 4712584 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Women are usually word cunts.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 15:09 | 4713314 Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

...Yellen is a woman right?...

 

What's the over / under on that?

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:43 | 4712565 youngman
youngman's picture

878..just to show the growth in the economy..one word of growth...

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:45 | 4712572 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Minimum-wage increase fails Senate test vote

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/minimum-wage-increase-fails-senate-test...

 

Good, now lets work on a Living wage instead.....Minimum wage it slavery folks, nothing more.

 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:53 | 4712612 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

You really want the criminal class to determine a "living" wage????

SERIOUSLY????

This has got to be at least stupid to the fourth power.

Might I be kind enough to point out that these are the same people who destroyed the currency, making the idea of "minimum" wages necessary?

Yeah, the mafia needs to start work on a living wage.

Sooo... what's "living" again?

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:55 | 4712629 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Ill just shut you up right here...Always ask first otherwise you look like a dam fool....

http://livingwage.mit.edu/

 

 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:07 | 4712679 superflex
superflex's picture

Moar kids = moar money

Sound a whole lot like welfare.

FSA! FSA! FSA!

 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:22 | 4712715 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I'll shut up as it isn't worth talking logic to one who fails to ask the correct questions.

Like, "Why is my pay worth less and less each and every day?"

See, without massive currency debasement, so many wouldn't continue to fall into poverty even while working full-time.

The whole premise of needing a living wage is a response to a symptom, not a cause of the underlying problem. As long as you ignore the problem you only make it worse. Masking the symptoms with feel-good idiocy is never a solution to anything.

In high school (1980), I remember looking at salary charts for the career path I wanted. Today, I make almost twice the amount that I felt would be sufficient at that time. Thing is, I plug it into fedgov's own CPI calculator, and find that I'm not even making as much in purchasing power as the original amount, even though it's nearly twice as much.

Where's my living wage? I served in the Corps and went to college, yet I too lack the financial security I originally thought I'd obtained.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:24 | 4712762 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

A enclave of government-funded liberals talking about "living wages" while ignoring the issue of currency debasement and resource scarcity...

 

Building fucking awesome mansions on sand foundations...

 

good luck with that.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:54 | 4712624 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

pssst...

wages are fucking irrelevant if there is no mechanism for true price discovery...

get long black markets, beat the rush.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:01 | 4712661 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

Good catch.  Sportsguy Chestbump!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:30 | 4712786 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

A living wage is socialism at it's finest.  

Because it's what you need right?  Not what you have earned.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:47 | 4712579 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

"what ever you muppets do...please dont convert our worthless paper into the only 2 forms of real money...Physical Gold and Silver..."

 

disclaimer: Apmex order for 500 oz's in cue and finger on the button....

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:48 | 4712591 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

I bought this morning as well, the site was very slow but got my order in. I'm in the Gold sector more than silver but I do own several ounces none the less.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:47 | 4712581 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Is she really going to continue to blow this bubble?

DavidC

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:49 | 4712595 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

How do you think she got the job? It wasn't for the lack of bruises on her knees.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:52 | 4712605 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Yeah, but as I said in a comment earlier today, she might have more balls than Bernanke or Greenspan and a bit more like Volker. They KNOW this is a bubble and the KNOW that all the QE is doing NOTHING for the economy.

But I certainly take your point!

DavidC

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:00 | 4712648 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Well, NONE of them decide anything other than to how best do their master's bidding. (the idea about them having the balls to do something is an absolute joke) As a precaution, you should kill your TV before they fill your head with even larger fantasies.

The only thing to question is, is her role designed to be a head-fake, or double-head-fake?

Remember, once it's time for a scene change, doves execute as hawks, and hawks as doves.

Everything they do is designed to keep the hot money from front-running the only game left in town, THEM.

But yeah, go ahead and pretend that they have the freedom to execute power as they see fit.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:09 | 4712694 DavidC
DavidC's picture

All the banks are concerned with is making money. If she does something that has the result of the market falling, be absolutely certain that the banks know about it.

Who made money in 2008?

DavidC

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:21 | 4712747 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

From what I can tell, you're making my argument that there's no such thing as an independent fed-head. The only difference being who tells who how it's going to be.

IMO, NOTHING is ever decided at Fed meetings, with their only purpose being the creation of a facade for which minutes can be produced against so that the Hilsenraths of the world have something to repackage for our infotainment. The fact that they had to hold an emergency meeting first, reinforces this position, as they obviously had a duck out of line.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:26 | 4712771 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Good point.

DavidC

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:33 | 4712795 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

You think she got the job because she is tougher than Greenspan or the Bernanke>

You know better, right?  

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:59 | 4712652 Thermopylae
Thermopylae's picture

Sorta like the director yelling "Cut! Bring in the Fluffer!"

Might explain the emergency meeting.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:47 | 4712582 machineh
machineh's picture

853. 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:48 | 4712586 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Winter weather--27 times it will be mentioned

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:56 | 4712639 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Oh c'mon, don't we already know this?  It's four: BTFD

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 12:59 | 4712651 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

When you LIE, the explanations get longer.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:03 | 4712662 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Obfuscation 101.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:05 | 4712674 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

But, but, the weather ate my eCONomy!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:16 | 4712727 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Exactly.  That first chart is hilarious. 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:00 | 4712655 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

You mekka the mistake of taking the FED at its word.  

What it really does (which you will never find out unless one of them or one of the Jewish Mafia on Wall Street that owns the FED squeals) and it SAYS it does, will do, and has done is exactly like a hot 15 yr old girl telling you she wants to remain a virgin until her wedding night.

Believe her at your own risk of looking like a fool.   

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:00 | 4712657 BrocilyBeef
BrocilyBeef's picture

911.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:04 | 4712670 Tjeff1
Tjeff1's picture

Hilsenrath -  The quickest typist in the land.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:19 | 4712736 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

It's a case of quantum atemporal causality: Hilsenrath's public analysis actually determines what the Fed says.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:30 | 4712785 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

That's so truthy that it's scary.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:07 | 4712683 Tjeff1
Tjeff1's picture

If Yellen were to read the minutes it would be 1 word.  One long mumbled slurred word.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:16 | 4712729 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Possibly 'Braaaaaaaaaainsssss.....'

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:14 | 4712720 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

The word count will be 666. Hilsenrath's notes will appear one nanosecond before the release of the minutes, since his soul is co-located with the Fed servers. Negative latency.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:24 | 4712763 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

Calling the top on a long way down......................................bichez

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:37 | 4712811 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Bernanke in an Oyster Bar somewhere slurping down a dozen or two with a couple dry Gin martinin's.

Maybe he'll have a cigar afterwards.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:42 | 4712814 venturen
venturen's picture

About $5,000,000,000 per word. Can't we get a little more for our money? I am going with 999 words for an even $5 Trillion slush fund! The phrase "Bend Over Taxpayers" will be repeated 333 times!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:45 | 4712835 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

Hilsenrath can speed read 877 words in 60 seconds!!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:58 | 4712881 justsayin2u
justsayin2u's picture

666 for its symbolic nature.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:59 | 4712889 justsayin2u
justsayin2u's picture

404 for the lack of a message in the message

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:59 | 4712890 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

I am surprised that all the FOMC statements don't have 666 words in them.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 14:04 | 4712913 L_Conquistador
L_Conquistador's picture

Well, the eskimos do have something like a couple of hundred words for snow.   The Fed will use all of them to explain Q1.  

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!