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What To Look For In Today's FOMC Statement

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today's FOMC announcement may be one of the more anticlimatic (if long-winded) in a long time: consensus largely expects the taper to continue by another $10 billion, and the Fed will, erroneously, suggest that the economy is growing at a "modest" pace (if only one ignores such things as a complete collapse in US GDP growth due to harsh weather: who knew that all it takes to stop a $17 trillion juggernaut economy was cold winter weather), but it doesn't mean there can't be surprises. Courtesy of Bloomberg, here is a list of the key things to look for in today's statement.

  • Steady Tapering: With the labor market and economy showing signs of improvement, the FOMC will probably trim its monthly bond buying by $10 billion, to $45 billion, according to Michael Hanson, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York. It would be the Fed’s fourth straight reduction by that amount.

    “We continue to see a high hurdle to changing the tapering pace,” Hanson said in a research note. “This is a meeting for Fed officials to consolidate the policy stance they have developed this year.”

  • Green Shoots: The FOMC will probably say the economy is gaining strength after harsh winter weather depressed growth, said Thomas Simons, an economist at New York-based Jefferies LLC. Growth stalled to a 0.1 percent annualized rate in the first quarter as exports dropped, according to data from the Commerce Department. Consumer spending rose more than forecast, propelled by the biggest gain in services in 14 years.

    “We’re looking for perhaps a modest upgrade to the economic outlook,” Simons said. Retail sales in March rose by the most since September 2012, and private employment exceeded the pre-recession peak for the first time.

  • Shaky housing: At the same time, the FOMC may refer to signs of a slowdown in housing, Hanson said. Sales of new homes in March dropped 14.5 percent, Commerce Department data showed last week. Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose at a slower pace in the year ended February, with the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values increasing 12.9 percent for the smallest 12-month gain since August. Rising mortgage rates and the harsh winter have restrained demand.

    "It is possible that the statement hints at more concern by the Fed about the pace of recovery in the housing market,” Hanson said. “If so, markets would likely see this assessment as dovish.”

  • Policy clarity: Fed officials may discuss how to improve their guidance on the future path of the benchmark interest rate, without making any changes at this meeting, said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York and a former Fed economist.

    “While qualitative guidance may be subject to further refining later this year, an adjustment seems unlikely this early,” Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research in New York, said in a report.

 

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Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:15 | 4712723 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

Well the bond market has been bid for 3 weeks.. NFP friday.. should turn the books. 

--http://hedge.ly/SxZ0Nz

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:29 | 4712781 graneros
graneros's picture

"What to look for..."

We already know what will be said.  Blah blah blah...green shoots blah, escape velocity, more blah, Putin bad, Bundy bad, Sterling bad, more green shoots, we are doing a trmendous job, blah blah, all ios well, blah blah blah blah blah..... And that concludes today's follies. God this country has turned into a writhing pile of spineless douche-people.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:34 | 4712798 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

So... we should expect the Fed's reverse-repos to approach $500B per day?

#greenshoots

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 14:02 | 4712902 linniepar
linniepar's picture

You're all fucking lying. 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 14:02 | 4712903 linniepar
linniepar's picture

.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:59 | 4712859 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

@H A,

Bonds have been bid since the end of December.

(...something is not right with that link; it takes you to the all time top charts of 2012.)

 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:20 | 4712743 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

My guess is that they do exactly what everyone expects them to do while the MSM runs around breathlessly asking "What does this mean?  What does this mean??"

Now, while all you guys have the pleasure of awaiting the FOMC minutes and Hilsenrath's riveting commentary on it, I need to go to settlement on my Mom's old house.

I'M GETTIN' PAID TODAY, BITCHEZ!!  

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:26 | 4712770 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

So, if the cold weather destroys the US economy, that kinda fucks up the global warming retards agenda, no??

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:35 | 4712801 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Not even remotely.

Incoherence knows no bounds.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:47 | 4712840 bagehot99
bagehot99's picture

It makes acting against capitalism, I mean climate change, all the more URGENT, you Rethuglican racist DENIER.

 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:21 | 4712745 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:25 | 4712768 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Try 'er out with a goatee next time, Bill.  I think it would look quite handsome on her.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:37 | 4712810 graneros
graneros's picture

I don't know ND, I think William has captured something here with the Bernanke look. With that beard and uniform she looks like a helicopter pilot terrorist. Which is rather apropos. N'est-ce pas?

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:40 | 4712818 john39
john39's picture

Mr. Yellen- I knew Baghdad Bob.  You are no Baghad Bob.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:22 | 4712749 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

what to watch for - continuing massive lying

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:24 | 4712765 NOTW777
Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:25 | 4712766 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Whatever they do, we will have new all time highs on the ES by 3:59pm, guaranteed.  

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:28 | 4712776 Oro
Oro's picture

Prediction; no tapper!    Have to keep everyone fed, housed, and educated for government jobs!!!!!   

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:32 | 4712792 Sutton
Sutton's picture

I'm going to write a 700 word synopsis in 5 minutes after the release. Check in

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:34 | 4712793 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

Just caught this email from Bix Weir:

UPDATE 3-CME mulls price fluctuation limits for gold, silver futures

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/29/cme-group-precious-idUSL2N0NL1JH20140429

And here's his take on what this could mean which is still a little vague:

COMEX Braces for Rapid Rise in Gold and Silver Prices..Happy Birthday to the Silver "Drive By"

 

More evidence that the multi-decade price suppression of gold and silver is about to come to a violent end was announced today by the CME who runs the COMEX.   Basically, after years of ALLOWING the price of the precious metals to be slammed downward in violent crashes they are now going to implement PRICE CONTROLS aimed at curbing any VIOLENT UPWARD MOVES!

  CME Mulls Price Fluctuation Limits for Gold/Silver Futures

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/29/cme-group-precious-idUSL2N0NL1JH20140429

  "U.S. futures exchange CME Group Inc is considering the introduction of daily limits on price moves in gold and silver futures in a bid to rein in wild volatility that has spooked investors in recent years, a CME official said on Tuesday."

  "The biggest concern for the exchange is the array of sophisticated trading programs that are capable of significantly pushing the market higher or lower, Vias said."

  "Unlike the meteoric declines in April and June, when institutional investors exited en masse in a two-day selloff, these seemingly sporadic trades lasted only minutes but overwhelmed volumes and price direction on each occasion."

  END

  Bahaha! It took the CME 40 years to figure out that the markets are rigged by computer programs!! Morons! (Actually, although there are many morons some are just corrupt and part of the rigging con)

  So TIMING is everything and NOW is the time. Tomorrow, May 1st, is the 3 year anniversary of the Silver 'Drive by Shooting" when the bad guys slammed silver down from $50/oz to $35/oz in just a matter of days. It started in the after hours market on a Sunday night and there was blood in the streets for months to follow. The CME did their part by raising silver margins right in the middle of the bloodletting.

It is clear to me, and anyone that has been on this Road for long enough, that the final battle is on and you should be ready for ANYTHING to happen at ANYTIME.

  Stay Safe.

  May the Road you choose be the Right Road.
  Bix Weir www.RoadtoRoota.com

 

 

 

 

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:37 | 4712808 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

surprised?

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:38 | 4712813 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Could be a move merely to sucker more "investors" back into the paper game?

Will be interesting to watch, either way.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 14:29 | 4713074 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

CME - Corrupt Metals Exchange

CME - Criminal Metals Exchange

CME - Crooked Metals Exchange

CME - Chicago Muppeting Exchange

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:34 | 4712797 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Partly cloudy, chance of rain 50%, freeze warning unless it's warm enough to not freeze, winds variable.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:50 | 4712849 Mr Giggles
Mr Giggles's picture

Increasing wind from the SW passage.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:35 | 4712802 scubapro
scubapro's picture

 

 

given golds sudden move just now......'hold steady current level of bond buying'.   which means, since there are no more mbs to buy, the fed will begin the monetize the entire yld curve beyond 7 yrs.  enjoy!

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:37 | 4712812 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Ted can fuck off with their claims of 'tapering', I believe that about as much as I believe kilo gold bars fly out of Yellins ass.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:41 | 4712823 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Yellen clogs the toilets wherever she goes even without the gold bars coming out of her ass.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:40 | 4712820 madbraz
madbraz's picture

$208 billion in end of month window dressing, brought to you by the friendly NY FED - the Donald Sterling of fair capitalism.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 14:31 | 4713096 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

How to navigate Jew on Jew punishment without rocking the boat.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:55 | 4712866 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

remember when gold futures were telegraphing the release....by like 30 secs? Although ever since then the Algo's can't make heads or tails of the minutes without a few minutes of up and down (good news! no bad news! no good!)

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 13:59 | 4712885 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Forget the FOMC. This nonsense is becoming tedious.

Instead check this out: I feed useless shitheads to a tiger:

http://fedtoatiger.blogspot.com/

Just go read it. You'll feel sooooo much better.

Caution: Contains adult language (yeah fuck you), casual homicide, evidence of insanity and animal tricks.

Occasional guest appearances by Diamond "the destroyer" and Fortran "the firebird".

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 14:03 | 4712906 qazwsx
qazwsx's picture

economic activity to expand at "moderate pace"  according to my DJ newswire lol. Just as you said they would say.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 15:36 | 4713421 Rusty Nayle
Rusty Nayle's picture

“We’re looking for perhaps a modest upgrade to the economic outlook,” Simons said. Retail sales in March rose by the most since September 2012, and private employment exceeded the pre-recession peak for the first time.

 

Attention ZHers: Since retail sales rose in March, expect to see inventories decline in Q2 with slight PPI growth as inventories are replenished. Also, expect shitty private employment numbers to continue through the rest of the year despite positive upward revisions. Don't forget you heard it here first...

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