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The Great(est Fool) Rotation: Who's Buying, And Who's Selling?
We could yarn on for hundreds of words discussing the ins and outs of falling volumes and record-er highs in US equity markets as Treasury bond yields collapse, macro- and micro-fundamental data slumps, and the total nonsense with regard to 'cash on the balance sheets' when it is all levered to the max. But when it comes to showing just who is buying the hope... and who is selling the hype, the following chart from BofAML sums it all up... institutional clients sold the most since January and the 4th most on record in the last week as retail clients continued their buying streak.
Institutional clients are dumping equities off to retail clients... thank you very much...
Last week, during which the S&P 500 was down 0.1%, BofAML clients were net sellers of $1.5bn of US stocks following a week of net buying.
Net sales were chiefly due to institutional clients, who have now sold stocks for the last five consecutive weeks and are the biggest net sellers year-to-date. Net sales by this group last week were their largest since January and the fourth-largest in our data history (since 2008).
Hedge funds were net buyers for the fourth consecutive week, and private clients also continued their net buying streak.
Source: BofAML
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http://commoditiefutures.com/convicted-hacker-weev-to-launch-new-hedge-f...
The only thing to remember...
Is that the big banksters are doing exactly the opposite...
Of what they are telling their customers to do!
Is that why Goldman Sachs refers to their clients as muppets?
http://isaacbrocksociety.ca/2014/05/01/1001-names-in-latest-federal-regi...
1,001 Renounced US citizenship in Q1 alone.....
Wish I could say this reinforces my belief. But "institutional" investors are no more likely to know more than anyone else. I'll stick with my own gut feeling as a "retail" investor and keep selling 10% of my holdings with each new all time intraday high. Only two tranches left. We'll see how it goes.
Institutions have the same analysts that hedge funds have. It's an even playing field unless you have the Treasury Sec on speed dial.
Correction: He has YOU on his speed dial.
the banks own this market with the zirp cash they got for their toxic mbs which ultimately
the fed is going to stick the us taxpayer with. what is it now four trillion and counting fast?
25% of total income toward rent is considered a normal and historic portion...
consdier...the bottom 40% of US households pay a minimum of 41% of their after tax income on rent/utilities.
Average rent in US = $9,192/yr; multiply 20% to rent for utilities, etc. (average total cost of rent/utilities = $11,030) Average income for 2nd quintile (40%-21% of US households) $29,700 and take off 10% for SS, medicare, sales taxes, etc. assuming this set pays little to no Federal / state / property taxes (40% household income = $26,700) .
Sustainable??? The stuff of bull markets???
Also consider the amount of SS, welfare, disability, section 8, etc. neccessary for those in the bottom 20% making average of $11,500 household income???
The consumer is tapped out and government spending minds the gap. What else is new?
Did I miss Tyler bringing up Morgan Stanleys call of $1138 gold?
http://www.mining.com/morgan-stanley-gold-price-wont-see-1300-again-92623/
What was the consensus here? Will they be able to drive it down there?
Inquiring Gold Bitchez want to know.
I for one admire their pompous actions - in the way we admire Ghangis Kahn, Alexander the Great, and Napolean - when it comes to shelving bonds at all time highs (vs yield), bringing equity back from the dead, and maintaining low prices in precious metals. If only they could get oil down below $80/b, then maybe, maybe I would say they won.
Maybe.
Right on the money in my book. And not just the "average" consumer. If the household brings in $100k, much higher than the "average", there is nothing left after normal expenses. Can't see how this "recovery" can continue like the media blabs every day. Would short this market but dont have the guts to fight the crazy up, up, up that is coming from "somewhere". America as a whole is broke.
If you have 100k household, and you cannot meet your "normal" expenses comfortably, I suggest you review what is considered "normal" in your life. Food for thought.
In San Francisco, tenured bus driver makes $90k/year....
no, 100k will not meet "normal" expenses for a family of four when the bottom feeders are inflating cost of daily necessities including housing and food.
25% federal tax
- 9% state tax
- 9% FICA old people tax
- 9% sales tax
===50% goes to taxes
$50k left
- $20k rent for 1 bedroom
$30k left
- $6k for food
$24k left
- $5000/year healthcare premiums+copays/coinsurance for a healthy family routine checkups
$19k left
- $3k for a car or public transit to get to work
$16k left
- $12k for child care of 1 kid if your wife works so that she can keep her job
$4k left
- $3k for student loans for good 10 years
- $1k for houshold stuff like tooth paste, bedding, clothing
$0 left
no money for retirement, or savings to put down as downpayment, or a replacement car without a loan, or saving for kid's college (which should have been included in taxes, but in US you get this 529 "tax exempt" tax to get your kid's higher education)
This is not normal.
Now you can always say, go move, but then you will not be able to get a job making $100k, but more like $60k and minimal expenses are going to be similar.
Food for thought.
inflation adjusted wage of $100k should be $180k now. so $200k is the new $100k where you get a little more breathing room....but not that much because extra $100k gets taxed 50% and you only have $50k left....than $20k in retirement, $20k in kid's college fund, you have $10k of play fun money which might need to go into emergency fund in case you get laid off during your 30 year career.
The low volume broadening pattern forming on the major indices is a classic warning sign too. While the Fed may call it tapering, what it really is is tightening, and institutional investors might just be smart enough to know the difference.
The low volume broadening pattern forming on the major indices is a classic warning sign too. While the Fed may call it tapering, what it really is is tightening, and institutional investors might just be smart enough to know the difference.
Perfect. A Wiley Coyote retail citizens market; my fave. doomed; doomed, I say !
Silly sheeple.
Being led straight into the slaughterhouse by the shepherds at CNBC.
Oh well, what's that saying; 'if you're gonna be stupid, you gotta be tough'.
Silly sheeple.
Being led straight into another 30% return in the 401k
If they were smart they would bet the farm on silver like me!
i am silly, not smart...but I'd bet anything but the farm.
Yes Frazer
Not sure if you know...........but regarding Wiley Coyote.........ACME is actually owned by Roadrunner Productions. LOL.
That gap between retail and institutional looks like a pair of shears.
Bend over....hold still. These shears do not hurt...for now.
http://static.flickr.com/62/208357741_d82232aa70.jpg?v=0
so for past 3 years everyone was a net seller of assets yet they go up? mmmmk
The Line for FED purchases is not on the chart.
Please the Fed would never do that, just like they "would never directly monetize the debt"...
/s
Also big share repurchases - which are largely fed money finding a home.
Invisible Hand == Invisible Line
FED line is on the chart, their money is taxpayers money, retail line is on the chart...
The Muppet Show!
The problem with articles like this that ask who is buyinga and who is selling . . . .
Is that no one is buying and no one is selling.
There are no people involved. It's just HFT engines.
The Muppet Show!
--------------------
Starring Miss Piggy Yellen!
It's time to get out of equities
It's time to short the market
It's time to meet the Criminals who will be stealing your money tonight
Heh, ok that was clever.
Same as it ever was.
where is retail getting all their margin...er.. I mean money?
The firewall working perfectly i see
Okay. So what are the institutional types buying? many are mandated to buy certain percentages of certain investments.
Do tell..
Yellen futures
Looks like they are buying shorts and HFT equpment to me.
we keep hearing this but the market keeps going up.
retail investors?????
so, "broke as a fucking joke" mom, pops and general muppets r in these Fraud Markets buying at the all time highs.....
yeah, right......
This just means...CASH ON THE SIDELINES!
LOL. it means "correction coming soon".
The Rotation is out of momo and into large cap - 2200 SPX by year end.
Here comes the ratail investor, finally. Market peak in 3, 2, 1...
Institutions are consolidating, mom and pop investors buying... should we buy after the correction?
So sad. Retail will get burnt really good this time IMHO. The ultimate bagholders, buying the FATH. Rinse, wash, repeat, works like a charm every 7-8 years or so it seems.
Lambs to the slaughter.
How long are we all going to stick to this idea that the stock "market" is gonna implode?
I'm starting to think it could survive a nuclear holocaust
They change the algos when they think a conservative may actually win - craaaassshhhh!
Can't believe people are falling for this all over again.
You'd think they'd be wise to the Wall Street three-card-monti.
Astounding (though this is based on BOA/Merrill Lynch customers).
If this holds across other firms, it is a signal that the next planned crash is closer.
They won't crash it until they are out - and Mom and Pop are all in.
The sheep need to be shorn.
BTFD was conditional training for future bagholders, who now can't help themselves from stepping into the MOMO morass and asking, "Thank you sir, may I have another?"
Sadly the retail 'folk' place CONfidence in the sell-side and MSM. When they realize they have again been duped, HEADS WILL ROLL---literally...
you are missing one key buyer of asstes in your chart, the only one that matters; the FED
here ill help you out.
The Moon- |
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FED Assets
Masterful use of ASCII art
Fed tapering
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Retail sheeple, dumb du dumb dumb dummmmm.
I think it is quite obvious that the 'buying' is being done by insiders and "manipulators" in order to keep the price up. They are using the rising stock prices the same way those ugly fish from the deep sea use their little dangly fleshy lures...
The retail investor has entered a poker game late, with strangers. He has not noticed the mirrors behind him and does not know where the cards come from.
What mutual funds should I move my money too to hedge against crash? I have been googling for a couple of days and cant find any good direction...
My guess is cash and hard assets. Then again, the cash is being inflated away and may devalue massively at any week-end. As for hard assets: Gold and silver are the most liquid, but could be confiscated and their prices are suppressed by the central banks and you still need to convert to buy anything. Real estate has it's own problems. I like trees, especially the likes of pecans or other nut trees, but that involves a lot of work and time, and you have to live in certain climates.
Personally I don't like any mutual funds. If you have to go into mutual funds or stocks in general, diversify.
Lucky for 'Retail' they can afford to buy.
I've got no job, no money, and a lot of debt. At this point in my life, there's only one thing I have to offer.
Citizenship.
Define "Institutional".
If it does not include the primary dealers, then it is misleading.
THEY have been accumulating trillions of FRNs courtesy of the FED.
We need another line on that chart to get the whole picture, one that shows what the Primaries bought along that same time line.
It makes some sense that institutions would be selling to obtain money to fund pension withdrawals by retirees that rising geometrically due to bebe boomers.
According to that chart institutions have been selling for the last 5 years. That's just not possible for the market to double, and triple on the S & P without more buyers than sellers. SOME "institution" has been buying what they are selling.
Something seriously askew with that chart.
If you put any money in the stock market, you deserve to lose all of it to the tribe.
No more excuses, Americans. Not anymore, not in this day and age when you know the score.
Haha poor Joe Retail
so... if all their clients were net sellers, who was and IS the net buyers?!
foreigners (EU, China, Japan)? the banks themselves? pension funds? the government?
anyone can help me with that?
So if they sell the stocks where are they putting the money, in bonds? I just looked at the TYX chart for the first time in - years. OMG. Yellen has been pushing down the rates so bonds go up in value, but what happens when the music stops and rates spike up and up? Is the fed PLANNING on buying EVERYTHING OFFERED? Because the alternative is a replay of exactly the market failure that was the epic fail of 2008.
So the fed must be planning this major bailout, so - BTFATH in bonds!!!!
OMG we are so fucked.
http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20140502000004&c...
Beijing suspected of hiding US$700bn in US bonds
Liu Mingkang, the chairperson of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, has accidentally revealed that China may hold US$700 billion more in US bonds than it has previously stated, reports Japanese newspaper Nikkei, which said the disparity shows the country's mistrust of the US.
The Chinese official said during a speech delivered in Washington DC on April 16 that over half of China's foreign reserves have been invested in US bonds and that as of the end of March this year, around US$2 trillion of the country's US$4 trillion in foreign reserves are in US dollars.
The figure does not match those provided by the US Treasury, which said China held around US$1.3 trillion in US bonds as of the end of February this year.
Analysts said China could hold the bonds anonymously or under other account names. The country has held Japanese stocks under the name OD05 Omnibus and has an account in the Japan Securities Depository Center.
A financial professional speculated that China may have accessed the bonds through the European bond settlement system in Belgium. The European country's US bond holdings surged from US$174.4 billion to US$341.2 billion between August 2013 and the end of February this year.
Most US bonds holders save their holdings at the Federal Reserve Bank in New York but China appears to have hidden part of its holdings. The Japanese news agency suspects that the cause is the country's deep mistrust toward the US.
I bought a stock yesterday...and then sold it after making 3%. Not bad for one day. Beats high yeild savings accounts by a huge margin.
Indeed Snoop. Few can do that daily, consistently, without a Pepto IV and some fine scotch...but kudos....keep up the good work!
..and, in one day, you clobbered the MM annual rate......sad....
So what are institutionals doing with their money? It sure as hell isn't going into PIMCO. Is it going into foreign equities or what?
Where is the BofAML Bull/Bear chart with this?