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Initial Claims Miss By Most In 5 Months As Challenger Job Cuts Worst April Since Recession

Tyler Durden's picture


The last 2 weeks have seen initial claims surge by almost 40k back (the most in 5 months) above 2013's closing levels. This post-weather-recovery "ignore Q1 GDP" pent-up demand is absolutely not evident in the jobs data as the 344k print for initial claims is the highest since Feb. This is also confirmed by the 5.7% rise year-over-year in Challenger job cuts which has left the year-to-date job cuts at their worst for an April since the recession ended... But didn't everyone tell us that April was looking good and that Q1 GDP was in the past and we should for get about it?


Initial Claims... ugly


Challenger job cuts... ugly...


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Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:42 | 4715443 slotmouth
slotmouth's picture

Clearly you didn't get the memo, this Easter caught economists totally off-guard.  

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:44 | 4715457 knukles
knukles's picture

Getting crucified by the weather

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:40 | 4715659 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture




Aren't these people the ones who are being set free to pursue their passions. 


Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:46 | 4716205 666
666's picture

It's the weather, stupid! They lost their snow shoveling jobs after the weather warmed up.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:46 | 4715468 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

yellen - more signs of recovery (recovery in joblessness)

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:51 | 4715490 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

With the trends in jobs, GDP, and housing the Fed has no excuses left for the taper, except that all of their policies have failed, and they know it.  Speaking weasel words all day must get old, but it pays well.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:49 | 4715484 Cursive
Cursive's picture


But it was only yesterday afternoon that Yellen & Co. told us that the "Economy" had "picked up."


Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:51 | 4715488 knukles
knukles's picture

Like my Progressive pals would say; "A lot of things have changed since then, but it's still Bush's fault. Bitchez."

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:52 | 4715493 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Bush will be blamed from the time he left office and for the next 50 years. The progressives control the media.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:59 | 4715517 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

"Progressives" hate progress and freedom of any sort.

I prefer the term "Commie-faggots", but that's just me.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:41 | 4715673 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture



That's "Cummie-Faggots!" Get it right, please.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 10:12 | 4715806 SoDamnMad
SoDamnMad's picture

With talk like that I'm banning you for life and you have to sell you team. (And I DON"T want that girl friend of yours)

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:03 | 4715525 Cursive
Cursive's picture

You right. And I know these Fed/central planner types are without any scruples, but any human being with a shred of dignity would be utterly embarrassed by that Fed release yesterday. Embarrassed to the point that they wouldn't show their face in public again. But not these guys. Again and again and again, ad nauseum.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:23 | 4715595 Hal n back
Hal n back's picture

and as long as we do not factor in the rising prices of gasoline, food and health care insurance we have no inflation. On the upside, with low PCE, all the price increases in health insurance , food, gasoline helped WMT and Costco sales immensely, so WMT can get out of its 2% sales increase companywide rut, help same store sales and to boot we get .1% GDP!


Now this has to work some magic over at McDonalds so they can show same store sales increase. With beef going up dairy going up, coffee going up, and wheat (bread) going up, Mickey D's should show some revenue increases despite people learning its cheaper to make dinner at home.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 13:52 | 4716856 katja2823fwieqqhdcth
katja2823fwieqqhdcth's picture

McDonald's seems to be raising their prices now so even the $1.00 menu is getting smaller.  It is getting to where some can't afford to eat at McDonald's any more.  It is cheaper to eat at home.  Ramen noodles (ewww) are even good when you are truely hungry!

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:43 | 4715449 ms8172
ms8172's picture

Then why is GOLD collapsing??

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:45 | 4715460 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Just sock drawer is still there.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:20 | 4715592 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Easy peasy.  Can't have gold going up.  People might say "oh Shat".

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 13:54 | 4716860 katja2823fwieqqhdcth
katja2823fwieqqhdcth's picture

But my socks have holes and the one pair I had old silver coins stashed in have moved and hidden somewhere else! ..  LoL

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:46 | 4715470 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

They see we have the trucks backed up...

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:57 | 4715505 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

I buy silver every week, because there isn't much choice as a store of value.

Remember Cyprus.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:54 | 4715499 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

The prospect of rising interest rates will give gold and silver some headwinds in the short run.

Stay the course, and you'll be happy.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:43 | 4715451 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

Bullish, bullish

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:18 | 4715587 Flux
Flux's picture

I had a pretty good April, actually. Canadian and International stocks and REITS did well. Even made a little off my bonds.


Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:43 | 4715452 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Stinkin' weather!

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:46 | 4715454 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

This is the progressive growth model.  Corporations and insiders get rich, the poor eat shit and the middle class goes away and they campaign on how empathetic they are to the middle class and poor as the country remains in the depression Obama planned !

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:10 | 4715557 Ghostdog
Ghostdog's picture

Thats about as succint as you can get

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:45 | 4715461 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

Time for some more Lies- man!

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:45 | 4715464 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Since the recession ended'.....if we just keep chanting that line of bullshit enough, someday it has to be true!

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:22 | 4715608 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Yup.  The recession never end because it wasn't a recession.  It's a dad gum deflationary depression that requires insolvent Arseholes to be moral hazarded into bankruptcy.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:45 | 4715466 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture


Ford CEO leaving July 1.

Toppy right in here.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:46 | 4715467 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Jobs no longer matter. It's all about bidding up stocks and boosting profits on the books.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:57 | 4715507 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Mark to unicorn banking assets = Non GAAP earnings

Birds of the same feather.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:46 | 4715471 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

Creating jobs in a mature market should be required to pass a certain "taste" test. It should be pointed out that while America is creating jobs it is costing a huge amount. I'm referring to the massive government deficit which I feel is the fuel driving our still rather weak growth. Is it sustainable, and just as important are these the right kind of jobs and will they last?

When a job that falls outside the description of government worker fails to make economic sense it becomes a form of working welfare with the taxpayer picking up the tab. We as a country and as a society have paid dearly for each unsustainable job created through government incentives and partnerships, because of the nature of many of these jobs we might even call them temporary. More on this subject in the article below.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:47 | 4715473 centerline
centerline's picture

Off topic - Martin Armstrong has a pretty good piece out today about long-term predictions (2015.75 +).

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:47 | 4715476 digitlman
digitlman's picture

So we had a hole in the wall of the house, but instead of fixing it, we just put wallpaper over it.  Well, now enough wind and rain and snow has beat against that paper, and the hole is starting to show through again.



That about cover it?

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:49 | 4715477 BIHM
BIHM's picture

Planned layoffs surge 17% in April.  Jobless claims increase above expectations.  All income 'gains' were attributable to inflation and gov subsidies (adjusted for these no increase).  Look at U6, fixed invesmtent and GDP.  Gives you all you need to know about where our economy is headed.  As for the market who the fuck knows.  As long as central banks longing equities there is just no way to know when the ponzi ends if ever.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:49 | 4715487 centerline
centerline's picture

It ends.  And not peacefully.  This should be abundantly clear by now.  The only questions that remain are the when and how.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:40 | 4715658 Oleander
Oleander's picture

Tomorrow marks the the final day for a number of 3M employees whose positions have been "eliminated".  At least they have the summer to figure out how to pay for next years heating costs.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:48 | 4715483 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

The unemployed are the new consumers, we couldn't care less!

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:49 | 4715485 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

this is all to sucker some shorts in for tomorrow's blowout nfp number

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:53 | 4715494 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

Recently released figures showing a strong decline in job formation over recent months may be more than a noisy statistic it may be an omen of danger ahead. This is a reminder that the task before Janet Yellen and the Federal reserve will be getting much more difficult.

Not only does this call into question claims the economy has reached escape velocity but lends credence to claims by others like me that QE and artificially low interest rates are not the answer.  These policies and massive government deficit spending can only carry a distorted economy so far. Expect this issue to come front and center in coming months. More on this in the article below.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:53 | 4715497 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

but don't worry, we have the ISM "survey" to fake it all back to bullishness!   it's gettin real boring these days knowing their script...

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:54 | 4715501 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Wal-Mart loves enttlements. Their making money off it, so why would they care?

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:03 | 4715531 madcows
madcows's picture

Walmart's earnings are down, in large part b/c the multi-year unemployment checks are running out.  Walmart lives off government entitlements.  Now, on the other hand, Nordstroms is booming.  It appears the .1% are getting their FED entitlements, and LOVING it.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:54 | 4715502 youngman
youngman's picture

I used to have a job.......consumer of the old days

now I have no economy consumer

Both consume but at different levels and buy different things....and this is the new economy we are living in....

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:00 | 4715520 Edward1290
Edward1290's picture

I shop mostly at the flea market and salvation army........

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:58 | 4715510 I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture
Paging Erwin Schrödinger...
Thu, 05/01/2014 - 08:58 | 4715511 wmbz
wmbz's picture

This is bullish and very good. Moonbat Polosi said this helps build the e-con-o-me. They have more time to spend with their family, more time to get out and shop. More folks get to sign up for food stamps etc...So the street should read this as double plus good!

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:14 | 4715573 Ghostdog
Ghostdog's picture

In Chicago its triple good because all those laid off people have more time to shoot people, per Mayor Rham's plan, thus lowering the overall population and increasing the Labor Force number... Voila!

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:00 | 4715522 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

that was funny--CNBC completely brushed off the employment figures and talked about some increase in spending data point, like this was all good news. 

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:08 | 4715548 centerline
centerline's picture

The bread and circuses are really cranking up now... right along side the propoganda machine.


Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:10 | 4715556 TheFreeLance
TheFreeLance's picture

I'm long heirloom vegetables, MREs, plastic sheeting, and duct tape.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:11 | 4715562 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

So this is why consumption went up

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:16 | 4715581 viator
viator's picture

May is time for green shoots, get with it or you'll be called a denier.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:43 | 4716531 BeerMe
BeerMe's picture

Recovery Summer V or is it Recovery Summer VI

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:24 | 4715613 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

A guy fixed my aging van yesterday - total cost for some exhaust work and a gas line leak was under $100, including parts.

This guy is in his late 20s, is a crackerjack mechanic and was recently talking to me about opening up a shop.

I went through the list: rent, getting a Fed ID, state sales tax license, reporting income, quarterlies, disability, worker's comp, unemployment, withholding, SS, and on and on.

I offered that he would be better off doing what he's doing, cash, mobile repairs (he comes to your home or work, which is great), or rent some space at night from a garage if you need a lift.

Smart kid, guess what he did.

Fixed my van up on a lift in a garage he was renting from $20/hour. Still doing mobile repairs, considering buying a trailer.

Don't play their game unless you absolutely have to. Cash, Cash, Cash.

Starve the beasts at all levels - local, state, and especially, federal.

Just thought I'd mention this little story as a sign of the times, though slightly off-topic. Jobs numbers are cratering; what the BLS and ADP make up comes from God-knows-where, but the underground economy is thriving and absolutely where the best entrepreneurs ought to be or already are. If you think that street-dealers, off-the-books hustlers and the like aren't some of the best businessmen and women in the world, you should compare dealing with them to dealing with corporate America.

The small guys work on cash, handshakes and reputation. The corporates feed us pink slime, lie all the time, pound small business into dust, and customer service? Call your cable company for a clue.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:42 | 4716526 BeerMe
BeerMe's picture

That reminds me...I need to cancel my cable.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:28 | 4715616 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

Goddam weather. And it only gets worse. This will be the most pleasant Spring and summer in years. Everyone will be out at the beach making up for being holed up in their homes due to the snow this winter. No one will get any work done and companies will be forced to lay off more workers. It never ends. When will Mother nature spare us of her cruelty?

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:54 | 4715718 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Robots don't spend money.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 10:00 | 4715751 RougeUnderwriter
RougeUnderwriter's picture

Bad news is good news - More QE, More QE more QE. Janet tell us you are cutting but keep Elvis Costello'ing it (Pump it Up)

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 10:03 | 4715760 Hohum
Hohum's picture

And what's more important: It's 16K higher year over year.  Haven't seen that in quite a while.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:37 | 4716492 BeerMe
BeerMe's picture

Since when was April looking good?  Slow more like it if you actually look around at local business.

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