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Stocks Rally As Bond Yields Plunge To 10-Month Lows

Tyler Durden's picture




 

You can't keep a rigged market down... despite weak GDP, weak jobs data, weaker PMI sub-indices, and weak construction spending, US equity markets are making new highs led by the ever-squeezable Nasdaq playing catch-up (and the Trannies). All of this stands in stark contrast to the continuing collapse in bond yields as macro fundamentals are reflected in only one side of the capital markets. 30Y yields - at 4.42% - are near their lowest in 10 months, and the rest of the complex hovers near 2014 lows.

 

Macro and bonds seem to play well but stocks are in a world of their own...

 

as 30Y hits 10-mnth lows...

 

with the entire complex seeing yields collapse on weak data...

 

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Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:04 | 4715992 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKEEEEEEEEEEEE!

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:10 | 4716013 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Invest in riskier assets?  

No thanks.  

Screw'em

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:24 | 4716096 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Invest in riskier assets?" -  Shit, ALL stimulus is fungible, fucking everything will get bought...


Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:50 | 4716187 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Just accept the 10yr will be hitting sub 1% this year...and yes stocks will go up as well...and PM's will continue sliding...and the economies of the US and Japan and world will continue deteriorating...simply because they must to keep the game going.  These are not markets based on supply / demand but central control.  Do not try to make sense of this...because it is what it is.

And Belgium (wink, wink) wants all the Treasury's it can get it's hands on...

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:35 | 4716485 Flux
Flux's picture

Excellent.

Looks to be another great day in the market.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:40 | 4716174 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Bond bears prepare for slaughter.............

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 13:30 | 4716768 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I gave up. I took my loss on my Long Bond Short; a little more than a $1,000. I put it on for the chart picture; the pictures busted now, so I don't have any reason to hang on and hope; which is a good way to get in serious trouble in grown up markets like bonds.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:07 | 4716003 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

As I said on the other thread. Bond shorts are getting stopped out just in time for tomorrow.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:27 | 4716079 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

There is reason to suspect the BLS began airbrushing their Friday number within 20 seconds of the 0.1% GDP release.

But it would be a lot easier to do that if the expectation number (bloomberg's economic calendar) hadn't been allowed to creep up to 215,000.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:46 | 4716202 Boston
Boston's picture

The technicals on the 10yr yield are working beautifully.... so far. 

The really critical test---for a further yield drop---has yet to happen: ~2.55% (near the lows of the year) must be taken out. Then it's on to ~2.45% (the lows of the fall of 2013). If this support breaks, then look out below! Nothing but air until about 2.0%.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:57 | 4716268 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

agreed and for that reason my guess is we will be at 2.7 by 8:35am tomorrow am.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:04 | 4716305 Boston
Boston's picture

Yup, and if it backs up to 2.7% tomorrow am, I'm buying.....more! 

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:26 | 4716439 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

you sir represent a serious problem to Mr. Yellen

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:37 | 4716484 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Spot on, in my humble opinion.

The only thing I would add is that if I were Yellen I would not appear in public over the next six months in the futile hope that the American public would forget what the woman looked like who said the US economy is so strong right now that we, the Fed, can start tapering, right ahead of a contraction print. She should have a stand in appear before congress..maybe Tina from Gilligan's Island..until the American memory is wiped clean.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 13:32 | 4716775 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Gonna piss me off if you're right; but I can't logically hang around and see; you have to love your losses cause they keep you alive to try again. I tried praying and hoping once in the Long Bond Market, in 1979, I think it was; didn't work out too well. Actually it was a disaster.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:11 | 4716009 pelican
pelican's picture

Everything is great!!! Party continues in NY and DC.  Drink up!

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:21 | 4716080 pods
pods's picture

GDP growning at a negative rate?

Honeybadger market don't give a shit.

There was a time when a contracting economy in a highly leveraged country would be a bad thing.

Guess those days are gone?

pods

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:39 | 4716509 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Its barely mentioned and when it is, its quickly followed up by a forecast of how great things are and will be this quarter.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:09 | 4716010 scubapro
scubapro's picture

 

 

every major investment house/ BD  is sticking to the 12/31/13 playbook:   stay in equities, high beta if possible, rates are going up so keep your bonds s/t, or better just buy div paying stocks;  and they use the word 'expansion' a lot....not sure what they are reffering too.

and somehow they keep talking about mortgage apps to pick up....but people usually need income to qual for a mtg, but f/t jobs are only expanding at 50k/month--below population growth.    or that refi's might pick up  when rate go from 4.5 back to 4  but other rates will go up.  it must be tough to keep all their stories straight

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:11 | 4716351 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I'll believe this bullshit about rates set to rise any minute now, when I see it.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:11 | 4716017 madbraz
madbraz's picture

"Yields collapse"?

 

You seem to be forgetting that when markets were less rigged, before 2012, 30yr bond yields would collapse 10 basis points when economic data was weak.  They don't allow that to hapen anymore as primary dealers and hedge funds are all-in in shorting treasuries.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:15 | 4716033 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

otoh what is the yield trend for the last 30 yrs?

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:11 | 4716019 Mr. Delicious
Mr. Delicious's picture

Buy rubles, comrades.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:15 | 4716040 Obama_4_Dictator
Obama_4_Dictator's picture

While silver can only go up exponentially from here, the same can be said for the stock market and us dollar, except in the opposite direction. I sleep good at night.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:20 | 4716068 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

The fed loves it when an assfucking plan comes together.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:05 | 4716307 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

This is a plan ? Somebody is buying the Long Bond; somebody else is buying the Stock Market, Nobody is buying the Dollar, and the PM are sold off; and the Euro is high as the sky; could you fill in some of the details of this plan, please. I'm feeling a little dizzy.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:27 | 4716446 RabbitChow
RabbitChow's picture

Reminds me of an old old Saturday Night Live routine where Dan Akroyd was playing Jimmy Carter.  He says, "Why shoot; I'll just print more money.  Why, we'll all be millionaires!" Well it was funny back in the 70s, maybe not so much now.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:21 | 4716077 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

Don't worry some ass clown like Insana or Gartman will come on CNBS in a few minutes blabbing about how the low 30 yr. rate is great for housing, so BUY BUY BUY!

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:23 | 4716088 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Time to put the prime rate at 6% Janet.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:23 | 4716090 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

All stimulus is fungible...

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:26 | 4716116 madcows
madcows's picture

fungible like Yellen's, Hillary's and the wookie's a$$?

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:51 | 4716583 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

their dry, crusty boxes haven't seen a cock or tongue in decades... that's why they crave POWER!

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 13:15 | 4716700 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

In hillary's case she's a carpet muncher

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:24 | 4716100 viator
viator's picture

If and when we get in a depression stocks will really go up.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:44 | 4716538 NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

Nothing is more bullish than a depression.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:25 | 4716102 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

LAUGH

         OUT

               LOUD.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:27 | 4716118 madcows
madcows's picture

EAT

                 MORE

 

BEANS.

 

(Mungo)

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:30 | 4716132 Sam Spade
Sam Spade's picture

Correction:  the 30Y dipped to 3.42% earlier today, not 4.42%.  And it probably has another 40-50 bps drop left in it this year, as more and more bad economic data hits the tape.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:38 | 4716166 jtz5
jtz5's picture

My guess for the market...we either get a total dump of the market tomorrow post jobs report or we get a blowoff top and gradually end the day even or lower.  Either way, we are done with this topping and it's downhill from here...finally.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:54 | 4716252 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Look.

Just stop.

There is no market.  You completely know this.  You're like a crack junkie coming back for more.

SELL IT ALL AND BUY FARMLAND.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:38 | 4716505 Flux
Flux's picture

Don't hold your breath, lol.

Doom and Gloom has been predicted for how many years now?

Oh, right, this time it's different ...

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:40 | 4716173 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Alas, poor bond market. I could have loved you, but those Belgians, they made you so damn, evil... [/bard + goldmember]

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:07 | 4716324 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Shit, I forgot about the Goddamn Belgians; why the hell didn't they stick to waffles?

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:43 | 4716197 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

A rally???...

"YES" even the most retarded and propoganda laden of the financial news organizations are worried about "the rally"...

I smell Bear and it's not just in Ukraine!

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talking-numbers/this-chart-says-we-re-in-for-a-20--correction-145953185.html

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:45 | 4716204 dragoneyes74
dragoneyes74's picture

If I was part of the Large Specs or Commercials who have been aggressively selling the tops all year, I'd be lurking just beyond new highs to stomp all over a high volume breakout. 

Could it be three NFP stop run reversals in a row?  If it happens, I will be all over it and I won't be covering anytime soon. 

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:05 | 4716310 HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

YELP pulling the entire market up with it on "an excellent and strong report". That's what The CNBC folks are telling us.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:53 | 4716591 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

yes, they only lost 4 cents/share ... buy every dip!

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:09 | 4716334 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Pretty weak looking stocks pump, looking toppy. Probably real soon they'll dump the pump back to low end of the range.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:57 | 4716615 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

"Well... we're WAITING..." - Ted Knight

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 13:30 | 4716759 jtz5
jtz5's picture

"It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.  But the man worthwhile, is the man who can smile, when his shorts are too tight in the seat."  Okay, pookie. Do the honors.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:43 | 4716534 NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

Can we just preface every headline with "Stocks Rally" now?

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 13:43 | 4716807 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

On down days, "Stocks Take Breather Before Next Leg Up".

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:49 | 4716567 MWizard
MWizard's picture

Times are crazy so it is good to know to deal with it. I recommend this video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPb9LciNutA

 

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 13:24 | 4716744 ilovemilken
ilovemilken's picture

Time for the old folks in Boca Raton to be come more familar w/complex ETF's.  Terrible market for savers

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