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Stocks Rally As Bond Yields Plunge To 10-Month Lows
You can't keep a rigged market down... despite weak GDP, weak jobs data, weaker PMI sub-indices, and weak construction spending, US equity markets are making new highs led by the ever-squeezable Nasdaq playing catch-up (and the Trannies). All of this stands in stark contrast to the continuing collapse in bond yields as macro fundamentals are reflected in only one side of the capital markets. 30Y yields - at 4.42% - are near their lowest in 10 months, and the rest of the complex hovers near 2014 lows.
Macro and bonds seem to play well but stocks are in a world of their own...
as 30Y hits 10-mnth lows...
with the entire complex seeing yields collapse on weak data...
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FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKEEEEEEEEEEEE!
Invest in riskier assets?
No thanks.
Screw'em
"Invest in riskier assets?" - Shit, ALL stimulus is fungible, fucking everything will get bought...
Just accept the 10yr will be hitting sub 1% this year...and yes stocks will go up as well...and PM's will continue sliding...and the economies of the US and Japan and world will continue deteriorating...simply because they must to keep the game going. These are not markets based on supply / demand but central control. Do not try to make sense of this...because it is what it is.
And Belgium (wink, wink) wants all the Treasury's it can get it's hands on...
Excellent.
Looks to be another great day in the market.
Bond bears prepare for slaughter.............
I gave up. I took my loss on my Long Bond Short; a little more than a $1,000. I put it on for the chart picture; the pictures busted now, so I don't have any reason to hang on and hope; which is a good way to get in serious trouble in grown up markets like bonds.
As I said on the other thread. Bond shorts are getting stopped out just in time for tomorrow.
There is reason to suspect the BLS began airbrushing their Friday number within 20 seconds of the 0.1% GDP release.
But it would be a lot easier to do that if the expectation number (bloomberg's economic calendar) hadn't been allowed to creep up to 215,000.
The technicals on the 10yr yield are working beautifully.... so far.
The really critical test---for a further yield drop---has yet to happen: ~2.55% (near the lows of the year) must be taken out. Then it's on to ~2.45% (the lows of the fall of 2013). If this support breaks, then look out below! Nothing but air until about 2.0%.
agreed and for that reason my guess is we will be at 2.7 by 8:35am tomorrow am.
Yup, and if it backs up to 2.7% tomorrow am, I'm buying.....more!
you sir represent a serious problem to Mr. Yellen
Spot on, in my humble opinion.
The only thing I would add is that if I were Yellen I would not appear in public over the next six months in the futile hope that the American public would forget what the woman looked like who said the US economy is so strong right now that we, the Fed, can start tapering, right ahead of a contraction print. She should have a stand in appear before congress..maybe Tina from Gilligan's Island..until the American memory is wiped clean.
Gonna piss me off if you're right; but I can't logically hang around and see; you have to love your losses cause they keep you alive to try again. I tried praying and hoping once in the Long Bond Market, in 1979, I think it was; didn't work out too well. Actually it was a disaster.
Everything is great!!! Party continues in NY and DC. Drink up!
GDP growning at a negative rate?
Honeybadger market don't give a shit.
There was a time when a contracting economy in a highly leveraged country would be a bad thing.
Guess those days are gone?
pods
Its barely mentioned and when it is, its quickly followed up by a forecast of how great things are and will be this quarter.
every major investment house/ BD is sticking to the 12/31/13 playbook: stay in equities, high beta if possible, rates are going up so keep your bonds s/t, or better just buy div paying stocks; and they use the word 'expansion' a lot....not sure what they are reffering too.
and somehow they keep talking about mortgage apps to pick up....but people usually need income to qual for a mtg, but f/t jobs are only expanding at 50k/month--below population growth. or that refi's might pick up when rate go from 4.5 back to 4 but other rates will go up. it must be tough to keep all their stories straight
I'll believe this bullshit about rates set to rise any minute now, when I see it.
"Yields collapse"?
You seem to be forgetting that when markets were less rigged, before 2012, 30yr bond yields would collapse 10 basis points when economic data was weak. They don't allow that to hapen anymore as primary dealers and hedge funds are all-in in shorting treasuries.
otoh what is the yield trend for the last 30 yrs?
Buy rubles, comrades.
While silver can only go up exponentially from here, the same can be said for the stock market and us dollar, except in the opposite direction. I sleep good at night.
The fed loves it when an assfucking plan comes together.
This is a plan ? Somebody is buying the Long Bond; somebody else is buying the Stock Market, Nobody is buying the Dollar, and the PM are sold off; and the Euro is high as the sky; could you fill in some of the details of this plan, please. I'm feeling a little dizzy.
Reminds me of an old old Saturday Night Live routine where Dan Akroyd was playing Jimmy Carter. He says, "Why shoot; I'll just print more money. Why, we'll all be millionaires!" Well it was funny back in the 70s, maybe not so much now.
Don't worry some ass clown like Insana or Gartman will come on CNBS in a few minutes blabbing about how the low 30 yr. rate is great for housing, so BUY BUY BUY!
Time to put the prime rate at 6% Janet.
All stimulus is fungible...
fungible like Yellen's, Hillary's and the wookie's a$$?
their dry, crusty boxes haven't seen a cock or tongue in decades... that's why they crave POWER!
In hillary's case she's a carpet muncher
If and when we get in a depression stocks will really go up.
Nothing is more bullish than a depression.
LAUGH
OUT
LOUD.
EAT
MORE
BEANS.
(Mungo)
Correction: the 30Y dipped to 3.42% earlier today, not 4.42%. And it probably has another 40-50 bps drop left in it this year, as more and more bad economic data hits the tape.
My guess for the market...we either get a total dump of the market tomorrow post jobs report or we get a blowoff top and gradually end the day even or lower. Either way, we are done with this topping and it's downhill from here...finally.
Look.
Just stop.
There is no market. You completely know this. You're like a crack junkie coming back for more.
SELL IT ALL AND BUY FARMLAND.
Don't hold your breath, lol.
Doom and Gloom has been predicted for how many years now?
Oh, right, this time it's different ...
Alas, poor bond market. I could have loved you, but those Belgians, they made you so damn, evil... [/bard + goldmember]
Shit, I forgot about the Goddamn Belgians; why the hell didn't they stick to waffles?
A rally???...
"YES" even the most retarded and propoganda laden of the financial news organizations are worried about "the rally"...
I smell Bear and it's not just in Ukraine!
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talking-numbers/this-chart-says-we-re-in-for-a-20--correction-145953185.html
If I was part of the Large Specs or Commercials who have been aggressively selling the tops all year, I'd be lurking just beyond new highs to stomp all over a high volume breakout.
Could it be three NFP stop run reversals in a row? If it happens, I will be all over it and I won't be covering anytime soon.
YELP pulling the entire market up with it on "an excellent and strong report". That's what The CNBC folks are telling us.
yes, they only lost 4 cents/share ... buy every dip!
Pretty weak looking stocks pump, looking toppy. Probably real soon they'll dump the pump back to low end of the range.
"Well... we're WAITING..." - Ted Knight
"It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat. But the man worthwhile, is the man who can smile, when his shorts are too tight in the seat." Okay, pookie. Do the honors.
Can we just preface every headline with "Stocks Rally" now?
On down days, "Stocks Take Breather Before Next Leg Up".
Times are crazy so it is good to know to deal with it. I recommend this video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPb9LciNutA
Time for the old folks in Boca Raton to be come more familar w/complex ETF's. Terrible market for savers