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What $1.4 Trillion In QE Buys The US Economy

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Back in December of 2012, the Fed, after two and a half failed attempts to stimulate the economy (via QE1, QE2 and Operation Twist), announced Open-Ended QE of an indefinite injection of $85 billion per month (which it currently is tapering at a pace of $10 billion per month on the realization that it has soaked up virtually all high quality collateral). Since then the Fed's balance sheet has grown from $2.9 trillion to $4.3 trillion: a direct injection of $1.4 trillion in liquidity into the stock market, if not so much the economy, which as Wall Street is suddenly busy telling us following the latest disappointing construction spending data (the same Wall Street which initially expected Q1 GDP to be 2.75%), probably contracted for the first time in three years!

There's even better news: if the next quarter shows the US economy contracting again - and with the "beneficial" impact of Obamacare fading, global trade stuck in the doldrums, and US consumers tapped out with near record low savings this is a distinct possibility - the US will officially enter a recession.

And this ignores the terrifying possibility of even more rain in the spring, not to mention the mortal threat of El Nino in the summer. Then the US is virtually assured an all out collapse into depression.

 

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Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:48 | 4716229 Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

Dont worry

http://rt.com/usa/155980-fidel-salinas-anonymous-indicted/

440 years for doing far less than the NSA does to everyone else

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:03 | 4716264 spine001
spine001's picture

Article forgets the direct impact of QE3 on GDP. Without that impact we would have been in an official GDP contraction for a long time, since we are in contraction mode right now. Only not officially. QE reached its limits long time ago.

As I have been saying since 2008,  it can be mathematically predicted using nonlinear dynamic modeling tha the economy is a chaotic system and that doing QE adI nfinitum you only increase the likelihood of betting the system out of its current stable attractor boundaries. And pushing it to a new attractor but with NO control of the new attractor the system will end up at. I hope that the morons at the FED finally understood the math.

Since a possible new attractor is going back to the stone age, and the way thezse systems work you cant't possiblty control the transition once you get outside of the stable boundary of the system. I hope ghat Putin understands this too.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:04 | 4716306 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

You should, like, send them a memo or something about that.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:40 | 4716511 Obchelli
Obchelli's picture

And tomorrow Job number will show up great with fantastic revisions to last two month numbers and market will go on with Rally to New All time Highs.

I'm amazed how masterfuly they blend numbers stimulus and lies to keep this market going up for so long...

 

Have to give them credit for manipulation - it's like they naver make any mistake running on a razor blade...

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:43 | 4716532 svayambhu108
svayambhu108's picture

They are supposed to give an example, Salinas should live as long as Noah and teach them a lesson.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 16:25 | 4717535 Angry Plant
Angry Plant's picture

Yea those 500k+ new jobs added in the three months of the first quarter seems rather odd when economy didn't grow at all?

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:07 | 4716319 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:28 | 4716454 drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Albert Einstein

Read more at http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/a/alberteins133991.html#He3VFSdZGWOu3HuB.99

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Albert Einstein

Read more at http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/a/alberteins133991.html#He3VFSdZGWOu3HuB.99

"insanity:  Doing the same over and over again and expecting different results."  Albert Einstein.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:49 | 4716231 maskone909
maskone909's picture

enter a recession?  no problem!  we will just change all the metrics to reflect 1% GDP growth.  then its back to weather and other important hard hitting issues.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:03 | 4716279 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Agreed.  None of us will live long enough to see the next officially declared recession.

When numbers on the screen are what matters, the numbers will be changed as necessary to fit the narrative.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:04 | 4716301 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The Ministry of Optimal Economics announces the official end to all future recessions

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:50 | 4716235 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Don't worry!  Mary Jo White is on your side

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:51 | 4716242 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Secret FOMC emergency meeting?

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:04 | 4716303 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

Zactly - play the party line of modest taper while juicing everything in sight.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:06 | 4716311 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

no-one expects the spanish, er, stealth qe

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:52 | 4716248 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Look at the 10yr, baby! Well bid. 

Pull up a long term chart and focus in on the fall of 08. This puppy could really drop. 

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:58 | 4716276 maskone909
maskone909's picture

couldnt negative real interest rates push banks into hyperinflating the currency?  if banks et al start losing $$ for holding treasuries

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:01 | 4716290 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Every treasury short is getting stopped out today....just in time for tomorrow's celebration.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:01 | 4716291 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Lately, looks to me like anyone holding treasuries is doing OK.  Add a little or a lot of USD appreciation....and....not many a tear would be shed...for the UST longs.  

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:04 | 4716304 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

This is the problem Grande, and Yellen knows it. It is why she is yelling that there is growth. This NFP tomorrow has to be big. She needs to start forcing the long end up ASAP because if not, there are big problems. I'd look for a big number and would be on the other side of the trade. I see 2.7% plus tomorrow post report. If not, watch out below (stawks).

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:08 | 4716327 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Could we be at a point where the market shrugs off a bullshit high side print? Maybe. 

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:10 | 4716348 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I doubt it. I can see a bad print if Yellen is the scapegoat and it's time to finally embrace our nirpish future, or I can see the S&P 2000 celebration by June if We print 275k. Or anything in between. 

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:12 | 4716361 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

I will make you a virtual sandwich bet that tomorrow's report is a miss. 

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:18 | 4716394 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Interesting. I am still smarting from recent sandwich loss. However as long as this is not a real sandwich then you are on.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 13:48 | 4716837 mt paul
mt paul's picture

seal flipper sandwich..?

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:15 | 4716377 maskone909
maskone909's picture

sometimes i must remind myself that we are doing pretty much what japan has for the last 30 years.  the only difference is that we are sort of the reserve currency.  untill something breaks thngs just tend to float on.  2008 was a manufactured crash too btw.  so unless they want to break it, it will continue.  maybe i am just jaded but the only reason to see a 275 print on the jobs retport is if they want it to print 275.  what ever medicine they must prescribe to keep it going they will.  untill they dont. 

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:20 | 4716403 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

"so unless they want to break it, it will continue.  maybe i am just jaded but the only reason to see a 275 print on the jobs retport is if they want it to print 275."

I would change "want" to need, but otherwise I agree with that statement. More importantly they need the reaction of yields to stop flattening, and they need it immediately. If they had a secret meeting the other day, I believe it was just to decide whether to go with 275k or 300k.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:21 | 4716406 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

2008 was a manufactured crash too btw

 I will see your jaded and raise you a skeptical in that all crashes are manufactured. 87 could be the exception or the pefect example. 

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:28 | 4716435 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I think you and Maskone are aliens disguised as CIA spooks disguised as normal people attempting to extract information to bring back to your mother ship where your alien leaders are deciding whether to invade or short the long end and then invade.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:29 | 4716457 maskone909
maskone909's picture

im just here for the sammiches.  ;)

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:32 | 4716472 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/979064/thumbs/o-BURGER-SEXY-ADVERT-NINA-AGDAL-...

We really are just after your women and a nice BLT on rye. 

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 16:58 | 4717602 Sorry_about_Dresden
Sorry_about_Dresden's picture

TO: MASKONE909

 

" 2008 was a manufactured crash too btw.  so unless they want to break it, it will continue"

You are correct and I think I, finally, found the smoking gun that started this whole shit storm and allowed the 1% to steal 11 trillion dollars.

 

I was reading about the Bruce Bent, Bent II and Bent III. The principles of "The Reserve Primary Fund"...the Money Market fund that broke the buck and froze the credit markets which, enabled Hank Paulson and Timmy Giethner to steal 780 billion dollars by comming and threatening Congress with that 7 page document that was supposed to be used to buy up "lower tranche portions of CDO", the so called finacial weapons on mass destruction. I found some article about one of the Bruce Bent the II being found guilty of one count of fraud so I started looking into the case, complaint, filed in the USDC Southern District of New York, case No. 08-cv-8060-PGG.

So I go online to PACER and download the complaint which is about 100 pages long.

The Bent family invented the very first money market fund, called the Reserve Primary Fund.

The $62 billion Reserve Primary Fund ("RPF") filed a Statement of Additional Information ("SAI") that prior to March 2006 the Bents and the RPF never owned or had ever purchased any commercial paper.

By mid-2008 the Primary Fund had bought, and was exposed to $785 million dollars in "Lehman Brothers" commercial paper. 

Now Bruce Bent created the RPF in 1970 and never bought or held commercial  paper. Bruce Bent used to joke "We don't drink, smoke, or buy commercial paper. And they didin't for 36 years until March 2006.

The complaint stated:

"Until 2006, the Primary Fund had a stated policy against investing in commercial paper. The 2005 prospectus, filed with the SEC on September 28, 2005 stated that"to furthur minimize investment risks, the Funds [including the Primary Fund] do not invest in commercial paper."

On March 15th, 2006 they again filed a statement with the SEC that "the Funds do not invest in commercial paper"

One week later the Reserve Primary Fund on March 22nd, 2006 filed a supplement to the prospectus and SAI for the Primary Fund, which noted the deletion of the paragraph that said the Primary Fund would not buy commercial paper.

Soon thereafter, and continuing through 2008, the Primary Fund Bought Lehman paper, Merril Paper and WAMU paper.

Commercial paper comprised more than 18% of the Primary Fund's assets by the end of August 2007.

Two months later, that figure nearly tripled and by August 2008, 57% of the Primary Fund's portfolio was in commercial paper.

In two years the Bruce Bent destroyed what took 30 years of careful management to build. I find no coincidence in these facts. The Primary Fund was the only fund that ever broke the buck. This was caused by Lehman Brothers bankruptcy which could have been easily prevented by the Federal Reserve as they did with Long term Capital in 1998.

This was a set-up. In 2006 everybody knew Lehman Brothers paper was crap because the CDS protection doubled to 510 basis points. 

I propose "the gang" of too big to fail orchestrated this whole crisis by using Bruce Bent as a tool to buy shitty commercial paper knowing Lehman would fall apart and knowing the credit markets would seize up and grabbing that TARP money.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 22:06 | 4718569 maskone909
maskone909's picture

And this time, Americans, and the entire world are the bag holders. Great post btw thanks. More insightful than anything on the "news". So either the Reserve Primary Fund was infiltrated or cleverly set up to fail. How convenient for Goldman to have perfectly timed their shorts.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 16:25 | 4721695 Sorry_about_Dresden
Sorry_about_Dresden's picture

The tbtf knew the collaspe was iminent so they planned the credit freeze, using Primary Reserve, so they could profit on the inevitable. They also planned it to coincide with the first swatzas election to the Whitehouse as a diversion.

I would encourage everyone to read the complaint filed against Bruce Bent and Primary Reserve. You will see the credit collaspes was no accident.

They planned it and made their fortunes.

You can find the complaint filing on PACER.com. The number is in my earlier post.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:55 | 4716254 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

This is simply the largest capital mis-allocation and mal-investment the world has ever seen...

hedge accordingly.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:21 | 4716410 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

You mean it's not wonderful that the local Ford, Lincoln, Toyota, Scion, BMW, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Fiat, Mercedes, Nissan, Hyundai, VW, Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep dealer has over 6000 vehicles to choose from scattered over a couple dozen lots?

When I drive by those places, I've no idea how they can find any particular auto.

They should buy some drones.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:55 | 4716262 border dog
border dog's picture

What a surprise.....like watching "walking dead"..

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:55 | 4716263 youngman
youngman's picture

Funny how the FOMC came out with what they did...they have these numbers too...they saw growth when in fack there was lack of growth...its now how much they lie I guess

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:57 | 4716269 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Careful with the whole "growth" meme...

It begs the question;

Growth of what, exactly?  Cancer?

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:17 | 4716392 Bloody Muppet
Bloody Muppet's picture

Careful with the whole "growth" meme...

It begs the question;

Growth of what, exactly?  Cancer?

 

Prison populations, the richests' bank balances, groundwater pollution, federal debt, personal debt, student debt, interest payments, inflation, TV channels, MJ use, company buybacks, unemployment, old people, cancer, poverty, underemployment, despair, restrictions on the freedom of the press, far-right support, political rhetoric and sinkholes.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 11:58 | 4716277 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

And the scary thing is when this pozi scheme comes crashing down there is not going to be another 20 trillion dollar prop to hold it up again.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:03 | 4716294 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

sure there will

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:52 | 4716586 Brindle702
Brindle702's picture

I am going with "yes" too.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 13:01 | 4716633 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

"And the scary thing is when this pozi scheme comes crashing down there is not going to be another 20 trillion dollar prop to hold it up again."

 

Free global lifetime debit cards for everyone.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:02 | 4716283 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

funny how i knew that thursday would be the day to buy some MORE Silver cause it would be on sale courtesy of the MoneyChangers...

thanks again assholes......

 

and thanks again ZH for the calender of this weeks data releases and Fed bullshit sessions...

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:00 | 4716285 HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

Thanks for this - I was wondering why we were rallying today.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:00 | 4716287 B2u
B2u's picture

We can blame it on the rain...they were fake too....

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwrL9MV6jSk

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:03 | 4716296 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

chump change

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:03 | 4716297 Tjeff1
Tjeff1's picture

Sounds bullish

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:03 | 4716298 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

The FED was simply levitating asset values and recapitalizing the banking system.  Eventually we get "shared" austerity and privitization of services to "save money."

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:03 | 4716299 JailBank
JailBank's picture

We need more QE and less QE.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:06 | 4716315 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Hold on there.  Jumping the gun a bit.  NO ONE can determine if we are in a recession until 6 months after we enter it. /S

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:08 | 4716335 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     Here's a good piece on the Euro sovereign debt binge that's got Spanish and Italian bonds at levels close to the u.s. T-10's, and the bond market in general.

  Speculative fever is back to 2008, with compound interest – Telegraph Blogs

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:10 | 4716337 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

I think they've been pumping the equities markets harder and harder.

But it really is hard to judge, in what is apparently this bifurcating economy, the top half taking off for Elysium while the bottom half festers.  Let's just posit it is roughly half that benefits, not just the 1% or the 0.01% who are the real off-the-scale beneficiaries.  And for that matter the bottom 10% or 20% or so also benefit as the "safety net" grows ever plusher.

The epic fail now going on may be the fed judging the aggregate numbers while the aggregate is misleading because so much of it is inflated by the top 1%.

I've been in a modified capitulation mode for a long time, but I'm a bit more capitulating recently, fwiw.  Capitulating to the madness.  I'm off on my unicorn for a nice round of skittles golf.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:12 | 4716357 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

$1.4 Trillion has bought a fantasy, and a whole helluva lot of income disparity, inflation, and unemployment.

"Dual Mandate" my fucking ass you MONSTERS!

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:28 | 4716451 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

Its pretty much the start of the recession/depression that never ended.

Central Banking doesnt work, or its working exactly like its supposed to.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:31 | 4716464 Obese-Redneck
Obese-Redneck's picture

Hey 1 trillion buys a fuckload of dead afghans and 2 trillion buys a shitload of dead Iraqis . But who's complaining, you?

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:35 | 4716478 BeerMe
BeerMe's picture

There can be no recovery with central bank and government meddling.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:35 | 4716481 HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

Great news if you own stocks! This will certainly push them to even higher ATHs!

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:36 | 4716491 constantine
constantine's picture

And, of course, how quickly we've forgotten that just a few quarters ago, the measure of GDP was revised, adding about 0.8% to the annual figure due to the addition of entertainment writers and some other crap.  So, using the metrics of no more than a year ago, the economy contracted about 0.7%.  That's a lot of f'ing snow.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:48 | 4716558 BeerMe
BeerMe's picture

We here at ZH haven't forgotten.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:54 | 4716495 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

WE THE PEOPLE GET MORE BIG TIME WEAPONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Big Defense Contractors Win Big in Wednesday Pentagon Contracts Announcement

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:48 | 4716561 Took Red Pill
Took Red Pill's picture

QE was never intended to help the economy despite what they told us. It's obvious it was meant to help Wall Street and the 1%.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 12:52 | 4716568 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

"Growth of what, exactly?  Cancer?...Prison populations, the richests' bank balances, groundwater pollution, federal debt, personal debt, student debt, interest payments, inflation, TV channels, MJ use, company buybacks, unemployment, old people, cancer, poverty, underemployment, despair, restrictions on the freedom of the press, far-right support, political rhetoric and sinkholes."

Left out fracking risks, US nuclear power/earthquake risk, bankrupt municipaliries, bankrupt cities, bankrupt states, collapsing bridges and highways across the country, disaffected population, high-cost corrupt congress, high-cost corrupt White House, sleeping media, no jobs for those who would have been our next gen of taxpaying consumers and probably same with the generation after. I' m not thinking that the shit is about to hit the fan, I think it already has. The rest is history.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 13:12 | 4716689 dunce
dunce's picture

You are just another cock eyed optimist.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 13:09 | 4716673 dunce
dunce's picture

The first thought i had when i saw that GP growth number was, how hard did they have to work to come up with a positive figure? Next is which way will the revision go? I no longer wonder why they lie.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 14:49 | 4717107 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

Isn't El Nino good for US agribusiness? 

I know in CA our reservoirs fill up with water and energy with an El Nino condition. 

 

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 15:47 | 4717376 Sorry_about_Dresden
Sorry_about_Dresden's picture

d

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