• Tim Knight from...
    04/28/2016 - 00:27
    I was expecting a few boring candidate statements of the U.S. Senate - AKA the World's Most Exclusive Club - but, boy, was I wrong. Just take a look at some of these gems.

30Y Yield Retraces 50% Of 2013 Taper Tantrum; JPY Surging, Stocks Tumbling

Tyler Durden's picture




 

30Y yields have plunged back below 3.40% for the first time snce June 2013 and have retraced over 50% of the "Taper tantrum" sell-off. Yields have accelerated lower this morning after spiking on the jobs data, as a combination of blood on the streets of Ukraine and the reality of the jobs data send investrs to safe havens. JPY is aggressively bid (with AUDJPY ruling US equity weakness) and Gold and silver are in heavy demand.

30Y yields have collapsed...

 

as investors dive for safe havens - JPY is surging (and thus AUDJPY is dragging US equities lower)..

 

and gold is bid

Still plenty of catch down for stocks...

 

Remember, it's not Tuesday!

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Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:06 | 4720215 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, yes, we covered this "shearing" already...

full faith and credit motherfuckers...

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:43 | 4720429 Mr Pink
Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:49 | 4720453 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You know when you see reports like that they are ready to dump on retail.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:09 | 4720550 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Are all you little "manipulation" cult members ready to apologize to me now for trying to explain to you yesterday what the nature of the event was yesterday morning? No. I didn't think so. Once the human mind joins a cult it becomes un-available to rational intervention. It was about five people who caused the waterfall yesterday, and as I pointed out to you it signaled a buying opportunity because they already knew the market was primed to go up. There are no Banks and No Evil Empires involved. None. Nada. Nilch. Your belief system is crap.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:18 | 4720594 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

I ain't never seen no one shit all stupid as you!

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:22 | 4720613 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

are you still shorting treasuries? Didn't you predict thousand percent gains month after month by shorting UST's this year?

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:29 | 4720642 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Between the long silver - short UST trade, SAT now has three assholes and they all bleed....

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 16:22 | 4721685 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Just shorted on the Long Bond today; reported on another post here on ZH; took a 1000$ stop loss on the last attempt. Sold ZB @136.-07. It's called contrarian trading.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 16:23 | 4721689 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Don't I don't predict, discuss, or mention foolish nonsense; like thousand percent gains; I leave that up to the ignorant citizens like you.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:12 | 4720571 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Oh My God; Gold went up suddenly in few minutes; and there's no explanation !! It must be a manipulation. Oh, Dear, oh, dear.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:19 | 4720601 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Generally speaking, it's not advisable to flaunt stupidity.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 16:26 | 4721700 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

It depends on the environment; on Zero Hedge it means you're a consensus player with an approval rating from the audience; especially regarding the idiotic bullshit about manipulation conspiracies every time there's a two hour dip in the metals prices.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:24 | 4720619 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Those charts and a weakened dollar = no explanation?

And bitcoin is a sceaming buy here?

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:07 | 4720220 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Just wait long enought the Yen carry trade unwind will blitz everything, including stawks.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:10 | 4720223 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Could it be the bond market is calling bullshit on this NFP report? 

Growth my ass.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:11 | 4720249 fonzannoon
Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:15 | 4720273 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Something to go with your burger. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1QmlJqy3ME

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:20 | 4720299 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

I'll try one more time.

You can't raise the price on things for which there is no demand.  Those who see higher bond yields are saying they see buoyant economic growth -- because that is what generates demand for loans.

If there is no demand for loans, you can't raise the price (the interest rate) of the loan. 

There is poor economic growth and it is getting worse.  So yields are going to fall.

The Fed will ensure there is never any default.  In yesteryear, you could say that there is a limit to this.  But in present year, cooperative central banks all over the world will orchestrate behavior to ensure the Fed is never punished via currency problems.

Stop thinking money can take the system down.  It can't.  Only oil can.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:27 | 4720327 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yeah...

There is a twist in that  your system can go down when you can't convert your money into oil....

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:10 | 4720561 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Moronic idiot; all your lines come from comic books. Grow up.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:30 | 4720585 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I am only trying to write at a level that the likes of you can understand...

Edit:

As the smart ones around here have pretty much figured out what CIO and myself have been telling you for years....

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:34 | 4720662 Edward1290
Edward1290's picture

what is the official US Gov position on 'peak oil'???

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:37 | 4720673 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

None...

but they did commission the Hirsch Report....

And there are a number of related DOD docs in the public about it...

Google it...

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:28 | 4720336 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Correct.  They will outright kill the fucking currency before admitting a default.

 

For reference see the CDS "market" and how many such "events" have been allowed to occur.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:32 | 4720364 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Fed Rates against any reasonable measure are negative.  This graph shoots your hypothesis to shit

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=3Kr

Home price are cratering in my area, sales numbers are down, and mortgages rates are rising against ..............?

Banks are simply raising cash, and still taking stuff off their books.  The tipping point will be when it starts going on the books faster than it comes off.

Try looking at the other side of the coin, that there is no supply of money out their to loan.  Why are credit card rates where they are? 

with the cost of short term money there is no one willing to lend.... Period.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:40 | 4720416 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Banks are looking for a white knight..."pay me to stop banking."

Outside of North Dakota none exist.

Gold is the only substitute for having cash in your walls...also a viable alternative I might add...as we go full on "Whitey Bulger" here.

"The chickens are coming home to roost" indeed. The bigger the lies the more the market tells the algo's to drop dead.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:42 | 4720424 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Oh, and "worse yet, it's Bank Failure Friday."

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:17 | 4720588 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

That is so 2009....

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:00 | 4720508 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Again, the end result is still a complete bank/currency failure.

By "accident" or otherwise.

It takes real fucking commmodities and energy to get real fucking work done. 

without energy available for consumption, everything stops, period.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:08 | 4720521 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Dood, your graph shows a declining mortgage rate since January.

As for no one willing to lend, you think those low lifes out there are paying cash for new cars?

Beyond that, yes, real estate is absurd. 

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:25 | 4720624 bobby02
bobby02's picture

First of all, you ignore the vital maturity transformation that banks perform: How can you compare an overnight loan with a 30-year mortgage?

Second, your argument is based on 3 years of mortgage rates? (Them there's cherry picking skills worthy of a Tyler.) Try looking at 30 years of data. You might notice a 15 year period where mortgages rate stayed north of 10%. What did bank NIM look like during that period?

Third, if there is no money to lend, why have banks parked $2.7 trillion (with a t) in excess reserves at the Fed? The banks don’t want to make those mortgages as there are few credit worthy borrowers. Furthermore, if home prices are falling, then the collateral is becoming impaired, meaning rising default and falling recovery rates. Throw in stagnant (at best) employment and wages, i.e., diminished debt service capacity, and you’ve got a potent brew. Prudent risk management says you shrink your balance sheet and de-risk – it’s better to get a guaranteed but paltry 25 bp risk-free from the Fed than chase a 4% NIM and risk having Titanic-size holes blown in your balance sheet. 

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:35 | 4720668 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

There you go.  Now if only someone would lend me billions of dollars at 0.01%.  I guarantee I can return a "profit".

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 13:00 | 4720778 bobby02
bobby02's picture

You and me both! (Too bad it doesn’t exist.) I had my eye on a little Caribbean island, cozy, but with a runway big enough for my Gulfstream V.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:33 | 4720367 bobby02
bobby02's picture

Bear flattener baby! Without rehashing peak oil for the umpteenth time, how can anyone really believe that central banks control long-term interest rates? In the absence of rising demand for funding, LT rates are just a derivative of the term structure.

 

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:38 | 4720399 Unknown Poster
Unknown Poster's picture

Venezuela is trying to prove you wrong.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:44 | 4720434 Redneck Hippy
Redneck Hippy's picture

As long as Italian and Spanish yields are as low as Treasuries and Japanese yields a lot lower than that, there is no way that U.S. yields are gonna spike, now matter how well the economy does.

The BOJ cannot allow Japanese yields to rise, otherwise Japan is bankruptis  (of course, it is bankrupt anyway, but they can't allow that to be generally recognized).  The ECB is doing something weird behind the scenes to keep yields down in the EU periphery.  This is obvious manipulation, but as long as its working, the market will allow it.

All stimulus is fungible.  So even though the Fed is cutting back, the Japanese aren't, the Europeans are just starting, and the Chinese don't admit that they're printing, but they're printing like mad.  Which is why the yuan won't come back.  So U.S. yields are the beneficiary of everybody else's stimulus.  If the Fed wanted to raise rates, they couldn't.

And the idea that the yen is a safe harbor is so wrong on so many levels that it boggles the mind to even attempt a comment.

But as a wise man once said (I forget who), thing's that can't go on will continue to go on until they can't.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:09 | 4720554 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

The Fed is going to tighten even if they have to massage the data into meaningless drivel.  Why?  Because their purpose is to line the pocket of a few fat cats at the expense of everyone else.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:26 | 4720630 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

@ Crashisoptimistic

Bond yields shoot up because people rush out of them. Why do you think this does not appy to the US bond market ?

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:56 | 4720752 4shzl
4shzl's picture

@CrashIsOptimistic

 

Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:27 | 4720326 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

"the bond market", we got a bunch of comedians up in here bitchez

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:50 | 4720452 Sam Spade
Sam Spade's picture

When ZH posted a report by Lacy Hunt earlier in the year predicting that the downward trend in long-term interest rates would likely resume, many here scoffed, but he's been absolutely correct.  Long-term interest rates rise when economic optimism flourishes and then drop when economic reality hits everyone in the face.  This is a seasonal trade that has been profitable for several years, and will likely work for the rest of the decade.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:01 | 4720510 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

All I can say in response is that Lacy is a girl's name.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:20 | 4720609 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

More than a few of us saw the 10y at 3% as a very nice buying oppurtunity for dividend/fixed income plays...

Check out MAV for instance, and it still yielding north of 7.5% tax-free....

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:28 | 4720641 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

That is just complete horse shit Sam Spade.

Why did Italian yields spike up and take down MF global a couple years ago ? Because "economic optimism flourished in Italy ?

 

????? economic optimism flourishes

Lol what ?

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:59 | 4720767 Sam Spade
Sam Spade's picture

Back in November and December, everyone was talking about how the economy was going to turn the corner in 2014 and finally reach escape velocity, and that we were thus in a "rising interest rate enviroment".  And now we have a shitty GDP print and a drop in the labor participation rate to 35 year lows, and interest rates are falling.  It happens every year.  When you're in the middle of an unacknowledged depression, you trade off of people's misplaced optimism.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 13:51 | 4720991 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Bond yields spike when an economy is on the rocks. Russia 1998, Thailand 1997, Italy 2011 ect ect ect

 

You are imlying that the US bond market has magical powers

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:08 | 4720229 The_Peeper
The_Peeper's picture

SPX has tumbled 0.07%?

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:12 | 4720254 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Just keep buying. It's gonna be fine.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:36 | 4720372 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yes but for this 'market' where daily gains are supposed to be at least .5% daily, it is quite shocking to actually see a red coloration.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:48 | 4720450 Redneck Hippy
Redneck Hippy's picture

It's early yet.  The 3:30 ramp is coming.

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