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As America Recovers The Jobs Lost During The Depression, Here Is What Sticks Out

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While we expect much media coverage of the fact that as of the end of April, total jobs have risen to 138,252K or just 98,000 jobs shy of the December 2007 highs when the depression started (which means that the next jobs report will finally show a full recovery of the jobs lost in the past 6 years), another fact which will not receive nearly as much attention is that the cumulative increase in Americans who have, over the same period, dropped out of the labor force has more than "made up" for the job gains. In fact, it may come as a surprise to most, that since the peak of the depression in February 2010, when the job number dropped to 129.7 million and has been rising ever since, the average monthly number of job adds is 172K.

And what about the average monthly number of people who drop out of the labor force since February 2010? 175K, or a virtually perfect mirror image.

 

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Fri, 05/02/2014 - 10:34 | 4720030 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

the new red line for stopping the printing will have to be lowered to -3%.  ie, everyone that is in the labor force will have to have 103% jobs to make ends meet.  its how people become serfs as the Fed buys all your debt and mortgages.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 10:41 | 4720074 American Dreams
American Dreams's picture

Why propagate the myth?  Propaganda, propagate? Postulate!

AD

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 10:48 | 4720122 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Prostrate......Prostate (exam).

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:28 | 4720638 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Prostate - Prostitute - High end prostitute - now we're talking.......

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 10:50 | 4720128 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

In fact, it may come as a surprise to most, that since the peak of the depression in February 2010, when the job number dropped to 129.7 million and has been rising ever since, the average monthly number of job adds is 172K.

And what about the average monthly number of people who drop out of the labor force since February 2010? 175K, or a virtually perfect mirror image.

----------------------------------------------------------------

 

Surely one would expect the number of added jobs... and the number of people dropping out of the labour force to be two completely different things?

 

If;

 

pot A is people with job

pot B is people looking for work

pot C is people out of labour force

 

The fact that pot A and pot C are expanding at the same rate is irrelevant isn't it? There's no connection there other than an expanding population (you would expect all pots to grow)?? It's an open system.

 

 

What am I missing?

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:01 | 4720194 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Technically, from a physics perspective, the earth and it's biosphere is a closed system.  Energy may be exchanged with the universe, but the matter we have at our disposal is for the most part, what it is.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:14 | 4720239 Georgia_Boy
Georgia_Boy's picture

.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:14 | 4720250 spine001
spine001's picture

You are correct. What we may be missing is that the population increase is affecting the youth component while the newly employed targets mostly the over 40 people. So one possibility is that the new eligible workers are disproportionally the ones dropping out soon after they enter the labor force. That would create the effect wouldn't it?

If I use the young people I know as a pattern of reference, this theory fits. Many of them are working just enough to survive using the internet and paypal-like services, most are completely out of the system using bitcoin like currencies to receive payment for their services.  

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 13:00 | 4720775 Redneck Hippy
Redneck Hippy's picture

My wife retires at the end of the month.  She is 63.  I semi-retired a year ago, I'm 63.  I'm not sure how the BLS counts me, but I get Social Security, so I guess I'm no longer employed.  We are the leading edge of the baby-boomers, millions of whom will retire in the next few years.   This natural occurrence is not  a conspiracy contrived by the BLS. 

That said, people leave the "labor force" for many reasons, among them the fact that most available jobs don't pay a living wage.  There is, however, a significant black economy in the U.S., despite the NSA and the IRS.  I'm sure my housekeeper doesn't report the money she is paid; between me and her other clients, she works every week day.  Prostitution is everywhere. There are many people who make money growing and selling marijuana.  Moonshine is again a growing industry in the South.  You are allowed to make enough for personal consumption, but you're not supposed to sell it.  But everybody sells it.  Weirdly, moonshine costs more than the stuff in the liquor store.  Craft beer made by hobbyists is also sold.  The authorities locally work hard to shut down the meth labs, but pretty much ignore alcohol and marijuana.

I make money selling books online.  I report my admittedly meagre earnings, but I am sure that many people who make a living on E-bay do not, and they are considered unemployed.  I met a woman in a tiny town in TN who was making a killing reselling fabric that she bought in bulk from a textile mill and resold to consumers in small lots.

The economy in the U.S. is better than it looks in the statistics.

 

 

 

 

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 13:31 | 4720891 Notsobadwlad
Notsobadwlad's picture

This confirms that free market competition is good and centralization is bad.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 17:35 | 4721949 macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

People who move away from "employment" and become independant contactors may not be part of the equasions. Are small business owners counted or just their employees? What about barbers and beauticians and others who work for mostly cash?

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:54 | 4720745 Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

The bastards are lying!!

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:01 | 4720179 ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

ignore the disenfranchised and they magically disappear.  but they gotta go somewhere.  off the grid to live in the back of a chevy, back to the aging parent's who got theirs before the wheels fell off, they are now nomadic and uncounted and for the general perception cease to exist.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 10:36 | 4720040 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Good thing I have been long black markets and sharecropping...

Slavery is making a huge comeback, no doubt about it now.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:31 | 4720353 headhunt
headhunt's picture

pssst... you are already a slave.

That is the beauty of creeping socialism/communism

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:34 | 4720376 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Hardly, but nice try.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:40 | 4720414 headhunt
headhunt's picture

Ok - well I make a good living but never stop paying on the things I already paid off long ago.

I suppose as long as the beatings don't start I am not a slave.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:52 | 4720464 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

It's good to be an "owner" that's for sure.  Sounds to me like you need to be a bit more creative with respect to what Uncle Sam can actually "see"...

 I do business in Russia, one of the favorite sayings I hear a lot is "they pretend to collect taxes and we pretend to pay them" or something along those lines.

Of course in the early 90's it was "they pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work"...

You tell me who has the "free market".

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:06 | 4720538 headhunt
headhunt's picture

The 'free market' ended in the US when two things occurred;

1) The computerization and tracking of everything. (they know when you drive across town if they want)

2) The takeover of the US education system by the far left like the Pisslosi's of the world.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:46 | 4720705 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

1) - I drive a car I built from scratch with my father.  old school, no eletronic gauges and a small block chevy v8.  I can always leave my cell phone at home.

2) - Sorry, we were all home schooled.

When pressed, I hope people start getting creative.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 13:17 | 4720838 headhunt
headhunt's picture

1st rule of fight club...

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 13:51 | 4720993 BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

You've got a license plate. You're being tracked.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 10:37 | 4720043 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

One can only wonder how many of these jobs are second jobs and thus being counted twice.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 10:53 | 4720151 cro_maat
cro_maat's picture

Blackrock is working on the securitzation of jobs. Each worker's job(s) will be divided into shifts and then aggregated into tranches for sales into HF's. The Bureau of Labor will then begin to count all shifts as jobs thereby increasing the # of jobs tenfold. The FED can then stop QE altogether because we know that Belgium will pick up the slack.

Milk and Honey for everyone!

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 10:53 | 4720152 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Twice?

Lets think 5x

 

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 10:37 | 4720046 order66
order66's picture

House of cards.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 10:42 | 4720051 pods
pods's picture

The problem is that most of the jobs have gone to those 55+ and those under that have lost jobs. So it is not the old people retiring and the young taking their place. Just the opposite.

And while y'all are here, lemme tell ya 'bout the negro...................

pods

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:07 | 4720224 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

beg to differ about those over 55 getting jobs.  i think that part is made up in addition to all these numbers.  i know of no one over 55 who is landing jobs--and I admit that my experience is anecdotal.

I am sure that i am counted twice since i work 2 full time jobs at age 62 and still make only 1/2 of what i made before the depression started.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 10:44 | 4720053 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The eCONomy is fixed. This is great news. Can we get an increase in our chocolate rations now?

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:14 | 4720576 DoubleTap
DoubleTap's picture

How about some Victory Gin?

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 10:42 | 4720082 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

 

175K is 0.7% annual growth rate, exactly the same as overall population, which means they are just treading water, which is why Employment Ratio is stuck at 1978 levels.  Bullish!

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 10:45 | 4720100 Eternal Complainer
Eternal Complainer's picture

"..virtually perfect mirror image.."

just like the mirror image of that mysterious Belgium bond buyer stepping in right at the right time to soak up the Fed taper

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 10:47 | 4720109 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I'm seeing the 10yr back 2.61(ish) range.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 10:49 | 4720123 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

What can you say about a blind guy who keeps poking himself in the eye thinking his vision will improve?

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 10:55 | 4720163 forwardho
forwardho's picture

That he is a perfect Fed Chairman?

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 10:51 | 4720136 novictim
novictim's picture

Don't fall for the BIG LIE.

 

HEALTHY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE =  < 3.0 - 3.5%

HEALTHY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE =  < 3.0 - 3.5%

HEALTHY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE =  < 3.0 - 3.5%

HEALTHY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE =  < 3.0 - 3.5%

HEALTHY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE =  < 3.0 - 3.5%

HEALTHY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE =  < 3.0 - 3.5%

Remember this.  The unemployment goal post was moved (to 5.5-6.0%) but don't accept that!

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:05 | 4720204 cro_maat
cro_maat's picture

There are 2 things going on with the employment participation rate.

 

1. Many people who have sought work for a long time but have been shut out have become dejected and no longer seek employment.

2. More and more people have realized the whole system is corrupt and out to enslave / crush them with debt and are leaving the matrix to create their own economies.

The trend of #2 will excellerate as more people wake up and decide not to be slaves. Plus those dejected souls from #1 will see how happy the souls in #2 are and most likely join in the fun.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 13:17 | 4720835 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

My best friend since the 60's was let go from the company he joined out of university in 1981 three years ago, at age 55. He's been looking for work, diligently at first, then despondently, then desultorily. Now, he's given up.. he's doing some unpaid consulting with some Kickstarter kids, hoping that might turn into something. Luckily, house is paid for, kids are through college (and even though he's in the US, he's from Canada, so sent them to Cdn. universities and paid ~10k per year), and he lives in Maine, so cost of living isn't as bad as NY or CA.

Still, he's very smart, hard working, and educated, so you'd think our economy would need and want him.

Oh, yeah, f*** you, Bernanke. And Bambam. And Pelosi. And Reid. And Boehner. And &c.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 10:56 | 4720168 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    I thought the term "strip mining" referred to the coal mining industry?   Boy was I wrong...

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:07 | 4720225 cro_maat
cro_maat's picture

Strip mining - process by which "Gold Diggers" lose their clothes in exchange for gold from old balding white men.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:09 | 4720240 MedicalQuack
MedicalQuack's picture

Yup "The Grays" are alive..make something up and put it out there.  Everyone wants to live in the "virtual world" and not the real dirty world. 

http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com.es/2014/03/virtual-worlds-real-world-we-h...

In the Quants Documentary, Paul Wilmott says exactly that, "the real world is dirty" when you look at the beautiful world of math" with a bit of satire...

http://ducknetweb.blogspot.hk/2012/09/quants-alchemists-of-wall-street-v...

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:14 | 4720264 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

But is this wonderfully strong (sic) job market the cause or effect of the decrease in bond yields?

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$TyX

I think our old buddy Ben manipulated all the indicators so that when he handed off to Ms. Janet, things were as close to neutral as he could manage.  So what has Ms. Janet done for her first act?  Cut bond yields by 20%.  Even while reducing QE by $10b/month, you ask?  Yes, apparently so.

Is she trying out some new trick, that lets her get by on $10b/month less?  Mebbe.  But then I don't know what it is.  Meanwhile equities are being forced up in spite of mixed at best results, and macro numbers that are muddy at best.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:40 | 4720418 Minburi
Minburi's picture

I retired when I was 45 in '01.

I was sailing along nicely with my little nest egg until that TARP and QE came along debasing all of my fiat.

So when I was 55 in '12 I started a job which I quit in January '14 because it took me two years of working to remember how much I don't wanna work for someone else for this fiat currency that keeps getting diluted.. They are stealing what little time I have left in my life.

Fuck this ugly system and all those people pushing fiat and debt around making big money while those who work get enslaved.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 14:24 | 4721190 Telemakhos
Telemakhos's picture

I don't mean to be rude or sound adversarial or preachy here, but I have to ask: why were your entire retirement savings in fiat?  Had you put just 10% of your savings into precious metals in the years leading up to your retirement in '01, you'd probably be quite comfortable despite fiat debasement.  And, although they might raise concerns about aleatory capitalism and market manipuation among some people, stocks do provide another avenue for diversification.  Bonds are a traditional third avenue, despite paying nothing these days.  If you hold low percentages of many different kinds of investments with varying liquidity, expected returns, and risk profiles, your overall risk of having to renounce your retirement due to a collapse in the value of any one asset is lowered.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 11:41 | 4720421 mjrIi
mjrIi's picture

Bureau of Lying Statistics also estimates an increase in US population 2007-2014 of 15.7 million.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 12:48 | 4720720 adr
adr's picture

Other than the fact that the number is pure adjusted goal seeked bullshit. The real unadjusted numbers have barely budged. For all of 2013 the total number of employed persons was lower than 2012.

If the total unadjusted employment number is lower than it was the year before, you didn't add jobs. Jobs may have been filled, but not in greater numbers than those who lost them.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 13:16 | 4720833 MarsInScorpio
MarsInScorpio's picture

The Great Depression II is ongoing.

-30-

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 13:30 | 4720884 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

it is very important that people refer to this economic mess as a depression and quit parsing the crap out of these statistics.

Repeat it, repeat it, repeat it and don't let the media call it what it is not.  It is no recession.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 15:14 | 4721324 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

As the great recessions and great... great depression hit the american's in the late 19th c., and early 20th c., the world was fast becoming disillusioned about democracy and it's... 'Capitalism'!?!

The communist scare in america had been going on since the late 19th c., but kept at bay because of america's superior military might. Wilson's WWI was no mistake, and our abandoning the 'League of Nation's' left a huge opening for WWII! By 1936 Hitler was recruiting his Axis allies, and with Japan signing on in 1938 sealed the fait accompli for Eastern Europe? What the Versailles Treaty did to Germany was an open invitation for an Nth degree vendetta!
Why wasn't america signature on the treaty as the #1 power in the world, should have been?

Fast Forward. America enters WWII via Pearl Harbor, and on August 14, 1945 signs a unconditional peace with Germany and Japan.

America is now the undisputed world super-power, except for a newly formed communist country called the "Bolshevik's- Soviet Union' who would be our nemesis?, til 1991 when it dissolved... poof!

America had bankrupt'd Russia through containment, attriton, and a quasi-surrogated procurator. But in doing so we became,'a friendless-poor isolated`nation', where our own capaitalist system was in shambles.

What really was the difference between democracy, socialism or communism... other than a fair and equitable society!?!

Today, America is doing everything in it's power to turn the world against capitalism and towards a creation of all three ideologies combined where socialism will marry Marx's theory of utility and market efficiency where the entire population will take part, rather than a worn-out 0.01% sharing the entire planets wealth. If not for the sad reality-- is the fact that communism looks good on paper but in practice is horrific! And, Socialism is a brokened system that borders communism but is more democratic?

 But, one way or another america's path has been set-in-stone by TPTB's. America has been sold out since (WILSON the Father of 1913), Eisehower, LBJ, 'NIXON the Communist?'/Nixon, Ford, Bush#41, Clinton, Bush#42, and ??? There is no difference today between a democrat and republican other than the SCOTUS wedge issues, period-- that get rehashed and incarnated into the future seemlessly by the puppet`master!

   You go america-- keep reaching for the stars DJ on a POMO tuesday til one day your fiat-ponzi will crash the america I onced loved and would die for!!!

Because we are shoveling a democratic/ capitalism system into the ash-heap of history... by virtue of a well defined fascist government now controlling america's 'Every Affair via the FRB's' and foreign owners without names or allegiances!!!

Note:   Since Russia's collapse and the end of the cold-war, America has been in a recession with a bipolar depression!     

jmo

thankyou Tyler   

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