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Marc Faber Warns "Social Media Stocks Are Just The Start, Market Crash Coming In 2nd Half"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Having called for the demise of the hype/hope growth stocks, biotech, and social media schemes at the end of 2013, Marc Faber believes the weakness in those sectors is a signal of things to come (and that the so-called "rotation" to quality stocks is fallacious in the medium-term). Faber carefully notes that the size of markets allows some stocks to move up as others move down and so the overall market "looks" ok, but warns "we have already had a big break in parts of the market... but we haven't had the big break in the overall market," adding that "it's too late to buy the US stock market," confirming what we noted about Jeremy Grantham's dismal outlook for US equities in the medium-term (and how and when the bubble bursts). Simply out, given yields around the world and the fundamentals, "individual investors have excessively optimistic expectations about their future returns," which is terrible news for the record amounts of Greater Fools piling in as professionals pile out.

 

 

 

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Fri, 05/02/2014 - 20:28 | 4722486 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

the laugh

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 20:37 | 4722502 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

First off Grantham..."He then predicts the rally will regain steam in the fourth quarter and continue through the end of 2016. He sees at least 20% rally in the S&P 500 through the presidential election, one that would take the index to at least 2250, After that, it’ll get ugly"

So we can chalk all his genius up to just another "just after the election" guy. Whatever.

I find myself agreeing with Faber, except he seems to think you have to choose between the U.S and emerging markets. Why can't we choose neither?

 

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 20:40 | 4722511 InjectTheVenom
InjectTheVenom's picture

VIX sub-13 ... LOL

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 20:53 | 4722534 InjectTheVenom
InjectTheVenom's picture

Seriously though...talk about some seriously awesome Friday-nite Zerohedge doom porn ! Major doomchub in the Levi's ! Faber, miracles, Ukraine ... BOOM !

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 21:05 | 4722579 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Russel 2000 P/E > 100  LOL. Buy the dips, fuckers!

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 21:05 | 4722582 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

This is fabers bread and butter, definitely go with grantham (a guy who's actually good at predicting big moves). 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13915.html

http://www.arabianmoney.net/us-stocks/2012/05/12/marc-faber-sees-1987-st...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100950234#_gus

Funny quote:

Oct 2 2009: For those still in equities, we believe Tyler Durdern at Zero Hedge said it best, “Go long here at your peril.”


Fri, 05/02/2014 - 21:39 | 4722674 max2205
max2205's picture

Buy the fucking dip....oh wait Dow at new ATH ; (

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 01:14 | 4723055 Godisanhftbot
Godisanhftbot's picture

doom porn. you nailed it

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 01:17 | 4723059 AbbeBrel
AbbeBrel's picture

While Faber didn't make any pics at the Barron's roundtable for 2013 - he has #1 ahead of Zulauf on the scoreboard for 2002-2012...

 

 

 

http://blog.pundittracker.com/barrons-roundtable-2013-performance-update...

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 20:52 | 4722539 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Predicting the future in the stock market is a mug's game, IMO.  While I am bearish in the medium-term, I always have been bearish in the medium-term...

Just as well I never had the confidence to put all my money where my mouth was (or pull all of my money out of the stock market either).   I would be poorer if I held no stocks at all...

Diversification has worked very well for me.  I still hold stocks, though I sell them in tranches as they go up.  It will be hard for me to sell, as my stocks are about as low a percentage of what I own as ever in my life.

Still, if Grantham is right (and I have a lot of respect for him), yes, sure I will sell moar stawks if the markets continue going up.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 21:43 | 4722682 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Blah, Blah, Fucking blah!  It's all Bullshit!!!!

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 01:16 | 4723057 Godisanhftbot
Godisanhftbot's picture

 Two kinds of people in the world. Those that get paid for talking bullshit, and those that listen for free.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 20:34 | 4722497 grunk
grunk's picture

I thought The Crash was scheduled for the 2d quarter.

Blame it on the weather I guess.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 20:39 | 4722509 Croesus
Croesus's picture

The Crash has been coming for a while now...it keeps being postponed, due to the weather. 

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 20:54 | 4722549 Redneck Hippy
Redneck Hippy's picture

Faber will be right one of these days (or years).  I hope he lives long enough.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 20:39 | 4722506 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Is it possible that the Federal Reserve can out print any crash? Since 2008 they have printed us to a bull market and record corporate profits and a record growth in asset income returns to the top 1%. In fact, 2008 was the dawn of a new golden age for the highest income earners, especially those whose income is asset ownership based. While on the other hand, the wage earners and unemployed have been beaten senseless by fed policies, not to mention savers. I have run out of belief that the correction is coming, with war on the horizon, the Government has ordered the printing to boost markets and other assets to new highs, a happy investor class is a happy class of warriors in the global fight club.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 20:43 | 4722514 surf0766
surf0766's picture

A bull market? If you say they printed us to a bull market ,, then it ain't a bull market.

 

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 20:44 | 4722518 sunnyside
sunnyside's picture

They can until they can't.   Not trying to be a smartass, but nobody can quantify when it will fail, but even the biggest bulls know it will someday.  Once confidence or desire for the dollar is gone ( a qualitative number, not quantitative) it all blows up faster than you can get your money out.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 21:07 | 4722586 seek
seek's picture

Exactly. History is rife with examples that prove that no, the Fed can't outprint any crash. They can print their way out of all but the last crash. That's the doozy.

It will be very interesting (in a Chinese curse way I'm afraid) to see how this pans out relative to the German hyperinflationary episode. That one actually took 18 months to play out.

My guess is it'll take much less time in the US and the death throes will be much crazier as those in power grasp at straws to keep the ponzi running. Capital controls, price controls, border controls -- it will be a control freak's dream for a while as it all falls apart. They'll never be able to mobilize enough police/revenuers/etc to beat the endgame.

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 11:41 | 4723605 Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

"it all blows up faster than you can get your money out"

Obviously you have never heard of stop loss orders...

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 16:09 | 4724346 seek
seek's picture

I'm assuming you left off the /sarc tag.

If not... LMAO.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 20:50 | 4722531 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Jack that 30yr bond is like being in a submarine heading toward a trench with the mechanics shot. Every few feet lower and you can hear the creaking and the cracking and you know what is next. The fed knows this and it's why they are screaming growth is coming and talking about raising rates. They need to get the velocity of money moving before it comes to a halt. They may start letting treasuries mature and run off the balance sheet which will immediately be followed by Schiff's suicide. It won't help the economy though. At some point we will get the reverse "Get to work Mr. Bernanke" moment from the fed, because they know that it's up to fiscal policy to start handing out some goodies to joes sixpack, and that ain't happening. So yes, they will defend the stock market at all costs, but if people choose bonds they will be overrun by the move towards nirp and you will see this machine grind to a screeching halt.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 20:55 | 4722537 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

First of all, QE is all on deposit at the Fed as excess reserves.  The bonds were bought, the banks who sold them put the cash back in the Fed.  It left the Fed, and re-entered the Fed.  Only a few hundred billion less than the total of QE to date is registered as growth of excess reserves deposited by banks at the Fed.   Hence, no inflation explosion.

Second of all, austerity.  Sequester took a lot of money out of the deficit, as did the millionaire's tax of Jan 2013.  Deficits are fiscal stimulus.  That stimulus is being withdrawn.  Bonds to buy as part of QE are getting scarce.  Part of the reason yield is dropping.  Those not already held at institutions or foreign are getting scarce.  Demand for them drives up their price, and down goes the yield.

Oil is $100.  An enormous number of things can be concealed beneath this burden.  Low short term rates as far as the eye can see pays for the drill rigs fracking in ND and Texas and Colorado.  Lower price, or higher rates, and you don't get US oil flow anymore.  Then the US returns to exploding its trade deficit as oil imports grow.

So stop thinking about crash or boom.  It's not going to matter.  When the crash is going to happen, you won't have any warning or time to maneuver.  It will be Sunday night, the market will circuit breaker in the first millisecond and not open that day -- nor the next day -- nor the next day. 

And understand that as it all disintegrates this means your shorts or puts will never be paid.  So . . . don't play at all.

 

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 20:58 | 4722562 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Someone a lot smarter than me just pointed this out to me

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V/

and said... "that M2 chart, right? I mean wow man there is no bottom there it just keeps tanking, lowest reading ever for Q1 2014.


Stawks are the only proven transmission mechanism so far. So they cant let the market go down, if they did there would be no holding the financial system up anymore. This 2014 churn is the Fed's version of a crash.

Bonds are a whole nother story man, its tough to say, I mean so far the threshold at 2.5% is there. Everyone thought it would be the gold market where people would eventually refuse to sell at manipulated prices. turns out its USTs lol... everytime the Fed raises rates from here its going to look like the opportunity of a lifetime to get a little bit of yield in a ZIRP universe. I dont know how exactly they will deal with that curve compression but they better be throwing some shit at the wall in those emergency sessions because pretty soon they are going to need to make some muscle flexing moves."

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 21:19 | 4722612 seek
Sat, 05/03/2014 - 11:33 | 4723582 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Great chart, Seek. It proves that we are still mired in a depression that is worse than the (formerly) great depression. Funny how that chart never sees the light of day.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 21:34 | 4722652 seek
seek's picture

"And understand that as it all disintegrates this means your shorts or puts will never be paid.  So . . . don't play at all."

Realisitically one should be worried more about getting money out of the bank(s) when this happens, let alone short/put payouts.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 23:41 | 4722944 Babaloo
Babaloo's picture

I agree with nearly all your post Mr. Optimistic (or can I call you Crash?) except for your points about interest rates driving the fracking boom. I think the roi on fracking is high enough that it would survive higher rates.

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 11:38 | 4723596 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Crash-- it gets more interesting when you consider that US gasoline demand has dropped by 65% in the last 8 years, and yet the POO is much closer to all time highs than all time lows.

I think its safe to say that both oil and stawks have been a dumping ground for inflation.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 22:48 | 4722860 bardot63
bardot63's picture

Hang in there, Jack B.  Dow goes up, until it doesn't.  The market rides the phonied-up numbers, until it doesn't.  You don't control the temperature by breaking the thermometer.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 22:59 | 4722869 TheMeatTrapper
TheMeatTrapper's picture

Jack:

I too have decided that we cannot predict events. TPTB can and will "win", no matter what. 

My strategy has shifted from "waiting for the collapse" to "living outside the system" and thinking about providing for my 10 year old son

I plan to leave him a property to live on - paid for. I plan to leave him a quantity of silver coins. I plan to leave him weapons and ammunition and the skill to use them. I plan to leave him traps, snares and the knowledge to put meat on the table. I plan to leave him a functioning garden and the experience of growing food. I plan to leave him with solid, American made tools. I plan to leave him with the knowledge that a man must provide by the sweat of his brow for his woman and his children - and that that is a good thing. 

That's about the extent of my 'solution'. I cannot alow myself to be outraged at the manipulation of the stock market. I must take solace in the knowledge that I can catch and eat beavers and frogs. The funny thing is, the more I learn about trapping and foraging, the more I realize how difficult it is - and just how few of my fellow hominids are capable of doing it these days.

Our day will not come, as it is already here, today.  

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 08:21 | 4723304 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

In amerika that is revolutionary.

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 21:17 | 4724923 Midnight Rider
Midnight Rider's picture

Only now it may appear that the Fed realizes their interventions are decimating 99% of the voting public. It may take time, but I don't think the 99% are going to take it forever. They do ultimately have the power of the vote and someone or someones will rise up to take the cause. Out of 315 million people in the 99% the odds are this will happen at some point.

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 21:56 | 4724986 Midnight Rider
Midnight Rider's picture

Greenspan in the end admited his error in not understanding the level of greed in the the banking system and it's ultimate effect on the economy and overall financial system. The current Fed will ultimately have to come face to face with the same greed of the 1% they are feeding and it's same effect on the overall economy and financial system. The 1% have absolutely no interest in any talk of 'trickle down' to help the overall economy. You know, like hiring someone instead of buying back your own stock with free money from the Fed so you can get a bigger personal bonus and hitch your ski rope to that third yacht, because two yachts simply will not cut it anymore. As none of the underlying issues in the financial system and economy have been addressed, the wallpaper will ultimately tear, just as it has after each and every prior misguided Fed pump.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 20:39 | 4722508 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Ahhh-haha-haha-ahh-haa-haaa!  This SHIT and 'pony tails' is getting really old!

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 20:54 | 4722550 blindman
blindman's picture

rhetorical questioning, what says jim grant?
.
http://www.grantspub.com/resources/video.cfm
.
oy...on and on ...just, why bother?

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 21:17 | 4722614 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

Faber why you trollin' bro?

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 23:31 | 4722931 ABG LINE
ABG LINE's picture

LoL!

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 21:54 | 4722710 PT
PT's picture

I'd like some better evidence for his reasoning.

I thought real estate was over-priced and due to go down back in 2000.  It didn't.  Not saying I know anywhere near as much as Faber.  Just saying that obvious, visible reasons haven't meant anything for 15 years now.

Don't generalize.  Spell it out to me.  Tell me exactly why the markets will crash.  Then tell me exactly what the Powers-That-Be will do to prevent the crash.  And then tell me exactly what will cause TPTBs plans to fail.

Don't show me the dc analysis of an ac circuit with multiple active components and feedback paths.

Having said that, Shadow Govt Stats says hyperinflation by the end of 2014.  I guess we'll find out in 8 months time.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 22:00 | 4722727 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Shadow Govt Stats says hyperinflation by the end of 2014.

Yah.  Well, I (and others) said hyperinflation by 2009, and it didn't happen.  Bernanke said nicerinflation in 2008 and that didn't happen.  He expected that, he wanted that, and he was all ready to jump on it so it didn't go hyper.  Well, he didn't have to.

In a global market if China has even a partial meltdown coming, more capital flight to the US, which overall is what has kept us afloat for - must be twenty years now, or thirty.

Even Shadow Stats can be captive to old thinking.  These are new times, crazy times, and there just ain't no tellin' what's next.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 22:12 | 4722770 PT
PT's picture

I have a soft spot for Shadow Stats.  Originally they said 2020, then backed it off to 2016, then 2014.  Unfortunately, I never figured out their methodology  (either I'm too dumb or they just did not say).  "Even Shadow Stats can be captive to old thinking."  I agree.  "These are new times ..."  I agree again.  I just wish we could see better analysis of what is really happening.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 23:13 | 4722902 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

We can all be captive to hysteria, lord knows there's reason for it.

But things have been holding together since 2008 far better than textbooks would have predicted.

So all we can do is try to grin and bear it, and try to come up with theories that don't conflict too much with known facts.  The math(s) do make sense, that's the one thing we can be sure of, so if we think they don't we're doing them wrong.

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 08:39 | 4723322 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

I've been saying 2020 for years....but from a bit of intuition coupled with a LOT of trends from Peak Cheap Energy, Peak Medicaid, Peak Obamacare, Peak Social Security, Peak Ponzi, Peak Debt, Peak Student Debt, Peak Consumer Debt, Peak Old Farts (Baby Boomers) retiring, Peak computer software and robotic automation, Peak Global Wage Arbitrage, Peak American Empire, Peak Dollar Reserve Currency.....and others......which all start to REALLY accelerate starting around 2020 and shortly thereafter.

Until then....the QEternity inspired business cycle will continue with some ups and downs.  But come 2020...give or take a Black Swan event.....and shortly after....the wheels really start to come off for the whole world to see and acknowledge.

Things will get "interesting" then.....in a Chinese proverb/curse sort of way.

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 08:40 | 4723328 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

In short.....this chart....which says it all and was made in 2005.

 

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--W8mdCVwsM0/TdvLq26vSpI/AAAAAAAAATg/whcFEClwj...

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:08 | 4735334 PT
PT's picture

Thanks for that Jumbotron.

In short it was all my fault.      :P

My original intention was to solve the oil problem after I solved a couple of other problems, but that all kinda went south after I dropped out of uni and had the most difficult time getting a foothold in the workforce.  I was hoping I'd figure some kind of way of going back to uni without going into debt, as I was also hoping I could build some kind of capital base that I could "waste" on R & D.  Once again, my optimism has been punished.  I guess someone else will have to have all the fun.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 22:03 | 4722736 PT
PT's picture

Unfortunately, evidence such as "Russell 2000 PE > 100" and "average person cannot afford cheapest house" isn't good enough.  It should be good enough, but it isn't.  The world kept on going, continuing to function even though it no longer made any sense.  What will be the trigger that forces the fantasy to collapse? What trigger will force maths and reality to re-assert themselves?  All other information is (almost) useless.  We know the maths doesn't make sense.  But it hasn't made sense for 15 years.  What will change?  What will stop the maths from "not making sense" for the next 6000 years?

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 18:00 | 4724570 Thisson
Thisson's picture

The interest on debt is growing faster than output is growing.  At some point, the vigorish exceeds productive capacity.  At that point, the crisis must be resolved.

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 21:55 | 4722714 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

What expectations?

I wasn't impressed by the crazy valuations when they went up and I'm not depressed by them when they crash back down.  Hey, it's the one *sensible* thing this frickin' market has done in years.  Those who play in that sandbox aren't investors anyway, they're speculators, or muppets.

What are my expectations for equities right now?  To hold steady after taxes and inflation.  Actually, that's more of a hope than an expectation.   Buy some safe dividend stocks yielding 3% taxable, see the stocks increase with the economy at 3% (I wish), maybe get another 2% by choosing stronger than average companies, pay 30% taxes on dividends and short and long term gains, and hope for better days. 

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, ...

 

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 22:22 | 4722796 Luckhasit
Luckhasit's picture

Here comes the lemmings!

Fri, 05/02/2014 - 23:16 | 4722913 cornflakesdisease
cornflakesdisease's picture

Well . . . .

$12 Trillion MZM + No returns + Gov manipulation = Higher stock market

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 00:20 | 4722999 Dutch
Dutch's picture

The latest print sets the price for all. TPTB can always position themselves as the first and last big trade of the session, with an unlimited backstop. So the crash isn't coming for a while yet, maybe never. But the institutions are bailing because the upside is done. Sideways markets, up on Tuesday, bleed back down through the next Monday's close. Forever. As the underlying economy just continues to roll over in a death spiral. Where else to go? Anything that has a paper or derivative version (gold) can also be taken out to the woodshed on a daily basis. And the tax man loves real estate.

So save some, spend some, allocate it around, stock up on necessities and physical. Gonna be a slow motion trip to wherever it is that we are going.

Of course, once it all breaks down, it will come fast and hard, from an unexpected direction. I'm guessing a meltdown of the USD is an essential part of it.

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 09:52 | 4723409 saveUSsavers
saveUSsavers's picture

This churn happened in 2007, the hot money rotating to big cap value, to distribute their stocks, big volume on distribution days, one of their tricks to unload secretly on bounces.

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 00:23 | 4723002 tekmike13
tekmike13's picture

I thought this was agood back and forth multilogue. I been in the "collapse is coming" mode since about 1968. Bought my first silver at $1.30 after the first run-up and collapse; some actual, some on the Comex. 10,000 oz contracts then for a grand down. Got excited by old (RIP) Harry S. Brown, and "how you can profit from the coming devaluation". What's a "devaluation", I wondered. Then, Nixon and the gold window; bought first gold at $75/oz, eagles and double eagles. Every paycheck, bought a little (I'm monetary small fry). Kept thinking, collapse any day. But didn't happen. TPTB kept pulling rabbits out of hats. Silver and gold way up, then way down (70's). I kept buyig and holding; "any day now, boom!" Didn't happen. But the bad macro numbers just kept getting bigger and bigger. Fast forward, had to quit playing the commodity game, although had made some big scores (bought more actual). Game got so bizarre, couldn't see how to play anymore; ditto stocks. Now it's all totally insane, except "stacking". So I'm old and retired now, and am quite comfortable with my stacks. But someday, maybe, who knows, baby, it will crash. Just keep stacking, and eat well.

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 08:18 | 4723303 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

And you grow your own weed and garden. Good!

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 00:48 | 4723030 Capitalist87
Capitalist87's picture

Can you trust a guy who wears the same shirt and tie in every interview?

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 00:57 | 4723041 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Oh my God, we are all doomed. How could imagine. Even in Kansas, kansas, Kansas.

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 01:51 | 4723099 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

We are moving towards the endgame and may soon be forced to face our economic Armageddon. The forces that have driven stock markets ever-higher and upward may be beginning to wane. Many markets became distorted years ago when QE and super low interest rates hit the economy in an effort to lessen many of the missteps of recent years.

The policy of QE it now appears has been more helpful in holding up the underlying value of assets and derivatives than helping to repair a wounded economy. Unfortunately the economy has not fared as well as these asset prices and in many ways these policies have harmed Main Street. More on this subject in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/facing-our-economic-armageddon.html

 

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 04:12 | 4723178 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

Thanks for you useless wisdom Faber.

 

If you could message that fucking cunt Yellen to stop the printing, we could reset and start over sooner.

 

CNBC is fucking crap.

 

 

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 04:51 | 4723191 dojufitz
dojufitz's picture

This whole pipe dream that 6 guys in a dark room pull the levers on how the world economy moves is BS.......

Yes there are people who want to make a quick buck....so what....tell me something i don;t know......

No one controls anything.....it is all bluff and BS.....

and when you buy into it....and it crashes.....no one saw it coming......

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 05:40 | 4723210 ZH11
ZH11's picture

Another prediction of a crash from this guy, great stuff!

One of these days he's going to be proven right and people are gonna wish they'd just listened to one of his monthly predictions of disaster for the last 5-6 years.

Alternatively he's just another huckster who pretends that he's got it all worked out and knows what coming when in fact he's just another chancer looking for commissions out of other people's money.

Another cheek of the same arse of the parasitical financial world.

 

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 07:32 | 4723278 pherron2
pherron2's picture

love it, broken clock! he kinda sounds like a broken record too

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 06:08 | 4723228 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

At the moment we are running a marathon the wrong way. A few of us have realised, turned round and started running back through the field. Most running are laughing at these few, whilst the race organisers shout over the tannoy 'keep going - don't follow those idiots'.

Now at some point the lead runners will get to the start line, and many can see the banner already. They are trying to slow down and back peddle before the main field catches them up. Some are trying to catch up with 'the idiots', naturally they are all quick runners at the front, so they are trying to get through the main field before the field sees the start line.

Now visualise the main field as they turn the final corner and see the start line ... Initially it's the front runners and the tall dudes, but to see this whole mass try to turn in the opposite direction, fuck me there will be a mess.

Then after all the trampling, broken bones, blood on the streets, there is a marathon to try and run.

Personally, I fuckin hate running. I'm back at home watching with my popcorn.

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 08:30 | 4723314 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Doom is here in one form or another for many. Argentina, Venezuela, Ukraine, Iraq, Syria, Egypt...wonder how the stackers  there feel about inflation? Or the preppers? 

"Be prepared" as best you can for all you can, then bong hits. 

We still live like kings and queens with wealth we take for granted. 

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 09:14 | 4723366 nagan
nagan's picture

To be fair to marc faber he has not been a fan of social media stocks for quite a while

"I think it is a to a large extent a Fad and people they go on facebook. For most people what people do is, they put a picture on, and the only people that watch these pictures are themselves"

http://www.marcfabersblog.com/2014/01/marc-faber-dislikes-bitcoin-facebook.html

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 10:17 | 4723421 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

If the world gets twisted into an economic pretzel a big focus will shift to the topic of "value and worth." The value of "something" is not an issue to take lightly. Value is not a constant and can be derived from several factors such as supply and demand or utility value, things can spoil or become obsolete making where you invest very important.

Value is not as constant as many people think or always destined to rise. The whole concept of value is also deeply rooted in "relevance" meaning drinking water is very valuable to a man dying of thirst. More on what constitutes "real value" and why it is important in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/value-and-worth-constantly-change...

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 10:43 | 4723480 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

The Social Media revolution?

HAHAHAHAHA!

The Self-Disclosure revolution is a better term.

Convincing millions to share their private thoughts with the government was brilliant.

Not even Adolph Hitler could imagine such a thing without the use of force.

If you're one of the useful idiots, look in the mirror and say:

"My name is _____, and I am a usefule idiot".

Follow the 12 step program to recovery!

HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 11:20 | 4723549 pupdog1
pupdog1's picture

Has there ever been a time when this asshole wasn't predicting a crash in the (n + 1) half?

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 11:31 | 4723575 OptionsHedge
OptionsHedge's picture

ZH has ZeroCredibility. Like someone said, ZH specializes in "Doom Porn". Nailed.

Oct 2 2009: For those still in equities, we believe Tyler Durdern at Zero Hedge said it best, “Go long here at your peril.”


Sat, 05/03/2014 - 11:59 | 4723654 DeFeralCat
DeFeralCat's picture

No credibility is posting anonymously that someone does not have credibility like I am doing to you. When the market corrects you will have not a single global stat which supports unicorns and butterflys. In markets when the music stops it is not the last one to have a chair, the winner is the first one to have gotten out. Good luck with your convictions.

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 18:12 | 4724591 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

Someone as certain as you are must be massively short.

You've sold your kids, the dog, all your porn tapes, mortgaged the house to the max, signed up for all the credit cards you can and taken 22% interest cash loans, as well as made a deal with with 666 for your soul, and laid it all on puts on CMG.

Right?

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 18:05 | 4724583 Midnight Rider
Midnight Rider's picture

The market ended up going almost nowhere for almost a year after this Oct 2009 call. That's a pretty long time. Where will you be a year from now? And, at that time, who knew of QE and ZIRP infinity. Even today, the market value as of the Oct 2009 call is a generous fair value for the S&P ex artificial QE and ZIRP. We will be back there again as we rhyme with history. The only reason the market is where is it is today is through massive Fed stimulus and destructively negative incentives. There are no fundamentals underneath it. If GDP hadn't been redefined, we would have had negative GDP growth last quarter. A long way from the 3% all the major TBTF banks and investement houses were predicting at the end of 2013. A million people dropped out of the labor force last month. Put that Oct 2009 market value on your calender. We will be back there again.

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 12:23 | 4723735 Your Creator
Your Creator's picture

I'll believe it when i see it.

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 12:43 | 4723810 Remington IV
Remington IV's picture

Faber is truly insane

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 17:43 | 4724540 silverstud
silverstud's picture

There is another yardstick to consider..

 

TBTP or Too Big To Piss - the tank is so full of easy money right now that to release the valve would be certain collapse of the entire FIAT system based on the amount of dodgy credit already out there.

 

then you have following natural progression from TBTP to...

 

TBTC or Too big to Crap - this is when the shit hits the fan when word comes out that all the Gold is gone and the Fed's cupboard is bare.

 

 

Sat, 05/03/2014 - 18:07 | 4724587 Haager
Haager's picture

Will believe it when I see stocks dumping at a median rate of more than 10% within 5 days. 

TA would support such moves.

Sun, 05/04/2014 - 03:48 | 4725366 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

Edit

Sun, 05/04/2014 - 04:09 | 4725387 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

If the smart money is exiting, where is it going?

Sun, 05/04/2014 - 04:40 | 4725412 Midnight Rider
Midnight Rider's picture

Simmons, Serta & Sealy, LLC

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!