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Whopping 288K Jobs Added In April, Far Higher Than Expectations; Unemployment Rate Tumbles To 6.3%
The "not really most important jobs data ever" is out. Here are the results:
- Jobs soar higher by 288K, far higher than expected 218K, and well above the 203K revised
- Unemployment rate 6.3%, tumbles from 6.7% and well below expected 6.6%
- Birth Death adjustment: +234K
- Average hourly earnings M/M +0.0%, Exp. 0.2%
- Average hourly earnings all employees Y/Y: 1.9%, Exp. 2.1%
The visual breakdown: the 288K jobs added in April was the highest since January 2012.
The total employment (establishment survey) is now less than 100K away from regaining December 2007 levels -the month the Great Depression started.
From the report:
In April, the unemployment rate fell from 6.7 percent to 6.3 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 9.8 million, decreased by 733,000. Both measures had shown little movement over the prior 4 months. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons declined by 1.2 percentage points and 1.9 million, respectively. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, unemployment rates declined in April for adult men (5.9 percent), adult women (5.7 percent), teenagers (19.1 percent), whites (5.3 percent), blacks (11.6 percent), and Hispanics (7.3 percent). The jobless rate for Asians was 5.7 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed over the year. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
In April, the number of unemployed reentrants and new entrants declined by 417,000 and 126,000, respectively. (Reentrants are persons who previously worked but were not in the labor force prior to beginning their job search, and new entrants are persons who have never worked.) The number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs decreased by 253,000 to 5.2 million. (See table A-11.)
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) declined by 287,000 in April to 3.5 million; these individuals accounted for 35.3 percent of the unemployed. Over the past 12 months, the number of long-term unemployed has decreased by 908,000. (See table A-12.)
The civilian labor force dropped by 806,000 in April, following an increase of 503,000 in March. The labor force participation rate fell by 0.4 percentage
point to 62.8 percent in April. The participation rate has shown no clear trend in recent months and currently is the same as it was this past October. The
employment-population ratio showed no change over the month (58.9 percent) and has changed little over the year. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed at 7.5 million in April. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time work. (See table A-8.)
In April, 2.2 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down slightly from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These
individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted
as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 783,000 discouraged workers in April, little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.4 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in April had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)
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Recovery, Recession, No matter what you call it
The Job Market is still not good.
Full Layoff/Closing List: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
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Welcome to Nirvana! Land of Unicorn skittles and fairy pixiedust.
I wonder if they crunch numbers in their sleep.
>Birth Death adjustment: +234K
>Believing their lies.
Who needs an economy when you can just print one?
Works in Monopoly, you can use yellow post it notes as IOU's in place of mone....Oh fuck I just realized something...
How many tool creators?
Money is gushing out of stocks and bonds and into real estate and alternative asset classes at the fastest pace I've seen since 2006.
It's as if someone turned a switch on.
If this continues, I can not possibly see how the central banks don't begin to hike rates much earlier than they've been claiming they would for the last year; it's not a tenable position to maintain.
Look for some doves sounding like hawks to prepare/condition the "markets" for a change of heart and direction on interest rates.
Taxes will have to be raised first. Any significant rise in interest rates will only make this "soft default" for TBTF banks and the U.S. government turn into a "hard default" overnight.
Even Forex brokers are concluding that Labour Dept is manipulating with the jobs numbers. How long will this shit last?
dp
TODAY, WE ARE CANCELLING THE APOCALYPSE!
*The Obongolypse proceeds as scheduled.
Thanks Bill Pullman.
now, when we go to war with russia and everything goes to shit, o can blame russia/putin. "the economy was taking off until russia....."
Yes, of course all is well - especially when income tax revenues in my state are well below projections.
At least unicorns and fairy's have full time jobs.
Damn, 1800+ lay offs from Express Scripts!
Guess they can all get on as ACA Enrollers now, right?
and there goes gold.
yep damn
a gift for our friends in the East
The Barbarians only take real money.
The barbarians only take real relics
there, fixed
Real people take only barbarian money?
Now watch as all those folks who just bought treasuries get fleeced as everything is "fixed"...
"Full faith an credit"
Specifically, no more faith means no more credit motherfuckers...
Look for extremely high put volume today on the long bond and March and April's monthly tweezers to not be approached for months to come. Any test of today's low of 134.16 is another point of entry to buy. ...The O no-I'm-wrong parachute point is a close below last month's open, 133.08.
My gut thinks that if we break 133 it would keep on dropping. No fucking way we get even close now.
King raller!! (guess who is buying).
Goldiloks
whoo hoo someone give me a high limit 30% credit card, I need to celebrate
wage ungrowth
s&p 1835 5-2-14
Nah, it will take a couple days to get down there but this has the look of a wooden stake being firmly pounded into the heart of the QE vampire. have sympathy for all those QE addicts, it's like a junkie who just watched their sole dealer get hauled away in cuffs.
First you have to believe that they are actually tapering the QE. And when is the audit being done on the Fed?
The audit is scheduled for the week after they string them up on lampposts. Until then we we just have to be satisfied with the transparency that Obama has brought to our federal government. Didn't you hear the news, the QE bond purchases have been taken over by the Belgians? Bless there souls.
Really, who know that Belgium had so much fucking cash reserves?
Interesting times.
Joe LaVorgna is the Man! /sarc All this "data" is made up bullshit.
they have to get out and increase rates soon enough, so made-up numbers gain pace::))
so when we had low numbers for jobs, it was all the fucking weather.
now that there have been upward bullshit revisions to those months that were effected by just this horrible weather, weather that has never been so bad in on anytime on this planet, i guess the weather doesnt matter.
its all fucking bullshit, i didnt even get upset, these numbers r so fucking rigged.
Gotta be the biggest whopper they have ever told!!
Wait until they get closer to the elections.....the September and October numberrs will be great.....just so Obamas buddies can get re elected
What are you kind of election magnet or something?
Huge fall in labor particiation rate as over 800,000 people exited the work force. Lowest in 35 years. I find myself bemused...
We could get this UE rate to darn near zero, if we could just drive more people out of the workforce. No doubt in my mind, the idiots running this country can do it!! And they will stand there and tell it to you in all seriousness, and with a straight face. And a good chunk of the people in this country will swallow it, hook line, and sinker.
They will have perfected statistical analysis when the UE rate equals the 30 yr and both are at zero.
Didn't you get the memo a few years ago? The only people that leave the labor force are those who are retiring. The economy is growing on strong fundamentals and we have always been at war with Russia.
A. Anyone who believes these numbers still beliebes in Santa Claus,
B. Even if the mumber is semi-accurate, then what kind of jobs were -created?
C. Doesnt anyone with any ability to think get tired of the gummint lies, more lies, and damn lies.
D. All this horse puckey day after day aided and abetted by the U.S. version of Pravda and by the corrupt arrogant narcissistuc illegal alien indonesian kenyan sociopathic fudge packer in chief only interested in its grand imperial golf life style funded by the sap serfs and peasants.
This actually very bad news
For who? Be specific.
@LawsofPhysics
It's the good-data-is-bad meme again.
Any statist. Federal. State. Local. They are getting boxed in. No way out.
So, this is good for liberty.
Only when Gold and Silver break free. But not today.
Boxing in a statist? Good luck with that. They're the ones amassing all the ammo.
Sorry, I just can't see Paul Krugman "amassing ammo". I can, however, see his head on a fucking pike.
We can only hope LoP
@seasmoke
Well, from that perspective, I agree it becomes harder for TPTB (i.e. status quo) to maintain the veneer of respectibility. However, do not under-estimate the ability of the American people to bury our collective heads in the sand even further.
Or up their asses.
That's what happens when you trap yourself in a lie.
.15 seconds before the release
https://www.tradingview.com/x/TFAok1Xn/
just your normal "free and fair" market operation...
.15 seconds before the release
What's that in doggy years?
1.05 seconds
Time to start pumping up those poll numbers.... It's the economy stupid.
With the election and then winter, there won't be an honest (ha!) NFP for another year.
Hard to reconcile any of these numbers with the every declining labor participation rates.
... the Fed trying to cook up a number to get a bounce in the dollar without croaking "The Market".
"You can't handle the truth".
Not adjusted, unemployment rate falls to 5.9%, but look at what happened to the labor force and those considered not to be in the labor force.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm
The former dropped by about 800k while the latter rose by nearly one million.
in other news labor force participation rate falls sharply::))
pure lies
thank you fraudsters and london fixers ,bought more silver and gold
have fun with massive debt and no growth
Shouldn't we be down 30 pts on the S&P? Fed mandate met, they should taper more.... "Happy days are here again, the skies are blue once again..." A hormone enhanced chicken in every pot!
Buy that F'n Dip.
Are these stats made up?
This shit is simply revolting to watch. Adust the number of people you dont count and you will have a 1% unemployment number but 50% of the country out of work, living in trailers and on food stamps!
I'm tired of trying to live the truth. Fuckit. 1984 it is and two plus two is five...I don't believe it...but accept it. I know it is wrong but I can't hold my breath forever.
No two plus two is five. Common Core!!!! Hope and Change!!!!!!
figures I bet a virtual sandwich on this one and not a real one.
@fonz
Your vitual sandwich is more real than this phony data. But, good news, bruh! Your second-life/FB avatar can eat that sandwich off of Sophia Vagara's virtual ass.
LOL
you know I said the 10yr is at 2.68%. I believe that Boston commenter came out of this solid too. He looks correct in that the shorts won the quick trade but the longs are piling back in. The 5yr is moving up so I am interested to see if Tyler shows that the curve is continuing to flatten even after this celebration.
If sofia shows up with that sandwich I will finally take this bag off my head
Thank you for the kind words. And congrats on your call yesterday afternoon.....the 10yr just about nailed 2.7%.
And sorry for the delayed remarks.......I was busy buying at 2.69% (btw, the deteriotation in the labor force part. rate makes me even more confident).
Anytime, your thesis makes a lot of sense and I like talking about this stuff. So interesting to see Yellen trying to force the long end up. If you squint really hard you can almost see a market at work.
Nice call yesterday on this print! You really nailed it.
Great calls on the print and yields, Fonz. You as well, Boston. Much more reliable than the pundits including reasons why we are seeing both today.
Thanks guys. I mixed my words up a bit above, but you guys know what I meant. Hats off to Boston. I got the quick crackhead trade right but he looks to have the big picture spot on.
An ass like that deserves a little respect, it's Vergara.
@Sean7k
Excellent. A fellow ass man. You might enjoy this south Louisiana zydeco anthem:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h04GKLselnc
http://www.horacetrahan.com/
:D
You called it.
Other than the virtual burger...I had no open trades.
http://i.huffpost.com/gen/979064/thumbs/o-BURGER-SEXY-ADVERT-NINA-AGDAL-...
Enjoy your burger. The best are the buns.
Fonz made a call? Well that's it for me. Sounds like a good day not to play.
A virtual sandwich OR a real shit sandwich.
Lauren Simoneti "We're trying to figure out why stock futures aren't up, let me get back to you..."
Please come back in a bikini Lauren!
288K, gee really....let's see the list of companies who added 500 full time positions last month.
crickets
That ain't good. Too many people having jobs might crash the S&P.
No worries, the participation rate is down.
I believe in Harvey Dent,
It's hard to not sit back and completely marvel at the audacity of their bullshit. It's takes some serious fucking balls to lie that boldly.
Straight. Up. It reminds me of when I was in Junior High once. We were practicing in a band class and right at a moment of complete silence, I accidentially ripped the loudest fart of my life. Everyone turned to stare and I knew I was caught....so I boldly turned and looked at my friend to my left, started shaking my head with complete conviction and held my nose. Not having any idea what to do, he apologized and we moved on. The rest of the year that kid couldn't get a break from the relentless harrassment....
thanks. i just laughed out loud. i hope you bought him a beer.
I hope he punched you in the face later.
Did you not hear Jay Carney re: the Benghazi email? The lying has gone full blown retard and is the new normal.
The lying POS shill for the fudge packer in chief needs his skin sandpapered off then buried in salt. He is too good for hanging. Same for the fudge packer.
Also, did u see the MSM sttoges sit there and lap up the sh_t he was spewing as if it were the milk from the gods. The free press as watchdog over the corrupt government has gone the way of the constitution. Thank you, fudge packer in chief.
Honesty, integrity, intelligence, morality, etc... only matters when it's the other party. IDEOLOGY above all else. There is no one so blind as an ideologue.
The unemployment rate moves in direct proportion to the POTUS approval ratings. These numbers are as made up as the number of people who have applied for Obamacare. 0.1% GDP growth and we are supposed to believe that 300K people were hired. Hilarious.
The numbers must be from counting the people who have three part-time jobs.
This should start the sell-off in earnest. Bye Bye free money
It should....we'll see how these totaly un-rigged markets behave by close.
And a big thanks to Tyler. These clowns on CNBC actually talk about the labor participation rate now. And it moving down to 62.8% is the whole reason for these "gains"
History shows that when the economy begins to recover the unemployment rate rises. Why? More jobs and people not previously counted begin to look for jobs because new jobs are being created with a growing economy.
That makes sense....probably why the participation rate fell again...
/sarc
Rejoyce in flipping burgers and mowing lawns!
Only for 29.5 hr/wk......it's the law!
Stay tuned for another exiciting episode of "About those job numbers" post coming around 2pm
Embrace the horror
Big phamra is laying off, whole families are on the dole, trailer homes are the new mcmansions. nucking futs world
This goes agianst every report I have read or listened too. Businesses are closing, not opening. I'd like to see the list of the jobs to see if 1) they are real, and 2) if they are "quality" jobs. What a bunch of bullshit.
Their economic model relies on CONfidence, regardless of whether it is based on reality or not. At this point it is all they have and only a suicidal maniac would speak truth to this reality, if their future depended upon public office or tie minions.
DXY
https://www.tradingview.com/x/voectzT0/
Morning Wood for the Fed
Discussion closed. Obama's brought us back from the dead.
As the living dead.
Evil Dead - Work shed!
Sooooo......spike the football now?
Boomstick?
Yeah reconcile that and the 234k birth death against the bullshit numbers. They are just making shit up.
Disturbing revelation! I ain't never seen anyone from this administration make up something.
Goodbye Benghazi story, the main stream whores will go directly to what will make this liar look like he is working on fixing the economy which could not be further from the truth!
If they will lie to take you to war, they will lie about job numbers. There is no way uneployment is that low.
Must of hired more gangstalkers and militarized police.
I downrated the article simply because I was so aggravated at the fake numbers!!
.....(sorry Tyler)....
"2.2 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force,".....BULLSHIT. That number is far higher. As for the "jobs" created....all low wage, many part-time. Part time jobs are NOT one-to-one employment, because the same person often holds down two...sometimes three...part-time jobs to close the gap on the ONE GOOD full-time job he used to have. The never ending furor over "minimum wage" is more than just politics....for the first time ever, the US has a LOT of people heading down to minimum wage level, and they are not happy about it.
I woke up in a bad mood this morning....and BS numbers from the BLS didn't help matters.
Don't shoot the messenger, man. Tylers ain't responsible for the BLS malarkey
Maybe Obama is losing his grip on the economy. Despite his best efforts, it's actually improving?
If people are retiring early this bodes poorly for us who may have to carry them in future years.The generation that is now beginning to retire has leveraged its size into favorable policy that it will enjoy in later life. This means the generous benefits boomers have continued to vote for in programs like prescription-drug benefits have caused deficits to explode.
An American born in 1945 can expect nearly $2.2m in lifetime net transfers from the "state" far more than they pay in. A study by the International Monetary Fund in 2011 compared the tax bills of what different age citizens pay over their lifetime with the value of the benefits that they are forecast to receive. The boomers are leaving a huge bill. The article below focuses on the burden we are placing on the young.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-young-will-be-burdened.html
advancing time, how to put this politely, you fucking moron...the boomers or gen xers or any other group (except the elite reptile club) have not created the mess we call modern america, your betters have, they are nameless (except corzine), it is laughable that seemingly well rounded posters still blame the public for what the elite cabal has done since 1913.
If you're going to write a blog, please take the time to do the research: http://www.cbpp.org/files/2-6-14bud.pdf
Obamacare will take care of the old folks..there is not going to be much money for healtcare for people over 80.....you are not getting a new hip or heart...just some drugs to kill the pain until you pass....good luck...
I'm getting a got of adverts on my ZH page for Travelgirls.com.
Maybe this explains the tick up (pickup) in the non-farm payrolls ?
Anyone that thinks the unemployment rate is anywhere 6.3% needs to have their meds. adjusted.
In California alone there's 1.3 million who are long term unemployed that can't get extended unemployment benefits. I don't even know the number that are currently getting unemployment benefits.
Mostly part-time crap jobs.
What good does it do to raise the min wage if you can't find a job?
Yeah, just wait until they grant amnesty. Then the UE will be 2%.... all those "working" illegals will magically become employed, and never collect any handouts.
Funny. Both parties are going gang busters to grant amnesty in order to buy votes. Why don't they promise to export the illegals thus opening jobs for AMERICANS, as a means of chasing votes.
NO Amnesty
NO Israel
NO AIPAC
NO Rand Paul
30 year lows in labour particpation The figure is bollox, will the market wake up or ignore this???
From Marketwatch :
By Jeffry Bartash
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. labor-force participation rate sank to 62.8% in April from 63.2% in March to match a 35-year low, the government reported Friday. Some 806,000 people dropped out of the labor force, according to Labor Department figures. Yet a government official said the drop in the jobless rate - to a six-year low of 6.3% from 6.7% - did not stem from a decline in the labor force, but from fewer people saying they were unemployed. He said the April report showed unusual softness in the number of people reentering the labor force, but not because they wanted jobs.
Can somebody explain this dichotomy to me how are unemployment rate decrease and labour participation decrease compatible...
Its a mystery to my binary programmed mind!
Paralell processing I have yet to assimilate in simple arithmetic!
Santa Claus and the tooth fairy are real.
so is free pussy
An economy with no growth adding hundreds of thousands of jobs.
A socialist's wet dream come true.
just shaking my head thinking about the group pulling the strings in markets and politically , what utter vermin these folks will not go when asked ,you will not vote them out ...there is but one solution
So, the nation GREW at a rate f 0.1%, but 288K people found jobs. I can't figure the two. If all these people found jobs, then the companies that hired them must be growing at a rate greater than 0.1%.
Now, clearly both numbers are pretty much make believe. The GDP calculation was recently modified to include imaginary products, and the Jobs data is Adjusted based on all sorts of make believe numbers like the birth/death adjustment and seasonal adjustments and weather adjustments. AND, you can't even watch for trends in the data b/c they change the formulas.
I guess they are both so frigging manipulated that there is really no meaningful info to be garnered from either one. So, I'll go with what I see each day. My company is doing well. But associates, and neighbors are not.
I'll call it a muddle through economy. certainly not a growing economy.
But more than that, I have no faith in the people and the gov. We are led by a crooked, lying, craven, hateful government, that is willing to use force against it's citizens, and no one votes them out. no one stands against them. they just vote the same hacks back in. They're ignorant, lazy, selfish. So long as they get their ebt and section 8, and food and fuel assistance and phones. It's disgusting.
I find it interesting that the while the BLS reports 288K newly employed, they also report 733K that are no longer unemployed. So, did the 445K that didn't find work retire, or just give up, and why? Speaking for myself I'd rather retire from a job than retire from the unemployment line. The Unemployment line doesn't offer the best of retirement benefits. No, my guess is virtually all of these people gave up looking for work. Some because they finally convinced the social security board that they are permanently disabled and therefore qualify for early social security but not 445K of them. For those not qualifying for early social security, if offered a job, would they take it now? My guess is yes for most all of them being they were liklely not satisfied retiring from the status of unemployed. I find it troubling to call these people no longer part of the work force, This is a sham.
The BLS report also says the civilian labor force dropped by 806,000 in April. I don't even know how to figure that into all of this, except this figure has been dropping since 2009 and is behind perhaps 60-70% of the drop in the unemployment rate.
I don't understand why this is happening. Is this real? If it is, why is this happening? ZIRP has destroyed all real investment for years. This should not be happening. Can anyone clue me in?
And just in time for the November mid-term elections where we all get to pretend that we get to elect hard working politiicians who will "roll up their sleeves" and continue to "fight the good fight" for us "hard working folks". This cannot possibly end well.