The Complete Ira Sohn Conference Post-Mortem

Tyler Durden's picture

From 110 slides of Ackman-inspired Fannie Mae bullishness to Tudor-Jones "Central Bank Viagra", and from Jim Grant's "Buy Gazprom because it's the worst-managed company in the world" to Jeff Gundlach's housing recovery bearishness and "never seeing 1.5 million home starts ever again"... there was a little here for every bull, dick, and harry at the Ira Sohn conference. Perhaps noted behavioral psychologist said its best though: "be careful about the quality of advice you get."

 

*NOVOGRATZ: EXPECTS MAJOR RALLY IN BRAZILIAN ASSETS

  • *NOVOGRATZ SAYS BRAZIL IS SO BAD ELECTIONS WILL SEE CHANGE
  • *NOVOGRATZ SAYS ROUSSEFF WILL PROBABLY LOSE ELECTION
  • *NOVOGRATZ SAYS BRAZIL WILL HAVE TEMPORARY SPIKE IN INFLATION
  • *NOVOGRATZ SAYS HEDGE FUNDS WILL HAVE TOUGH YEAR
  • *NOVOGRATZ SAYS LOTS OF SMART MONEY, HUMAN CAPITAL ON BITCOIN
  • *NOVOGRATZ PREDICTS DEMOCRATIZATION OF FINANCE; INC. BITCOIN
  • *NOVOGRATZ SAYS BANKS WILL LOOK MORE LIKE UTILITIES
  • *NOVOGRATZ SAYS BANKS WILL BE IN LESS SEXY BUSINESSES

 

*SHUMWAY SAYS MOODY’S COULD RISE TO $80-$113/SHR AT IRA SOHN

  • *SHUMWAY CAPITAL’S SHUMWAY: UKRAINE IS BIGGEST RISK IN THE WORLD
  • *SHUMWAY: CHINA IS AN AREA OF CONCERN
  • *SHUMWAY SAYS SHORT OFFSHORE CHINA RMB SPOT AT SOHN
  • *SHUMWAY: MOODY’S IS A GREAT BUSINESS: IRA SOHN CONF

*GUNDLACH RECOMMENDS SHORTING XHB HOMEBUILDER ETF AT IRA SOHN

  • *DOUBLELINE’S GUNDLACH SAYS SINGLE FAMILIY HOUSING OVERRATED
  • *GUNDLACH SAYS HOME PURCHASES BUOYED BY CASH TRANSACTIONS
  • *GUNDLACH: SAYS IF FANNIE, FREDDIE WIND DOWN MORTGAGE RATES RISE
  • *DOUBLELINE’S GUNDLACH SAYS OWNERSHIP RATES WILL GO TO NEW LOWS: IRA SOHN
  • Gundlach: 'For the rest of my career we will never see a year of 1.5 million housing starts again.'

Dan Ariely: "We should be careful about the quality of advice we get when we have trouble evaluating it"

 

*LAFFONT SAYS LIBERTY GLOBAL COULD EASILY GO ABOVE $100/SHR

  • *COATUE’S LAFFONT SAYS GO LONG LIBERTY GLOBAL AT IRA SOHN CONF
  • *LAFFONT SAYS VALUE OF LIBERTY GLOBAL NOL IS $8B AT IRA SOHN
  • *LAFFONT SAYS VODAFONE MAY BUY LIBERTY GLOBAL
  • *LAFFONT SAYS AT&T COULD OWN A MERGED VODAFONE AND LIBERTY

*GLENVIEW'S ROBBINS SAYS HUMANA PROFITS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE

  • *GLENVIEW’S ROBBINS TO DISCUSS HUMANA, WELLPOINT, MONSANTO
  • *ROBBINS: HUMANA LIKELY TO PARTNER WITH A PBM
  • *ROBBINS: SUGGESTS MONSANTO BE LEVERED MORE LIKE PRAXAIR
  • *ROBBINS: SAYS GMOS ARE ‘HERE TO STAY’
  • *GLENVIEW'S ROBBINS SAYS FOOD AVAILABILITY REQUIRES GMOS
  • *GLENVIEW'S ROBBINS SAYS GMOS UNLOCK THE KEY TO FOOD SUPPLY
  • *GLENVIEW’S ROBBINS RECENTLY PURCHASED ENDO INTL: BLOOMBERG INTV
  • *GLENVIEW’S ROBBINS LIKE HERTZ, OWNS IT: BLOOOMBERG INTERVIEW

*POINTSTATE’S SHREIBER SAYS NET SHORT CRUDE OIL AT IRA SOHN

  • *SCHREIBER: SEES OIL GOING MUCH LOWER AT IRA SOHN
  • *SCHREIBER: SAYS GO LONG ADVANTANGED U.S. REFINERS AT IRA SOHN
  • *SCHREIBER:OVERSUPPLY OF NORTH AMERICAN CRUDE HAS YET TO BE FELT

*GRANT’S INTEREST RATE OBSERVERS’S GRANT SAYS GO LONG GAZPROM AT IRA SOHN CONFERENCE

  • Grant says "Tesla is Herbalife without Carl Icahn"
  • Grant says "Gazprom is polar opposite of Tesla"
  • Grant says "Gazprom is worst-managed company on the planet"
  • *GRANT: GAZPROM COULD CONTEMPLATE RAISING DIVIDEND: AT IRA SOHN
  • *GRANT: GAZPROM’S ‘MANY IMPERFECTIONS’ SEEM TO BE PRICED IN

*ACKMAN: FANNIE, FREDDIE WORTH $23-$47/SHR OVER TIME

  •  Bill Ackman began with 110 Slides on FNMA
  • *ACKMAN DISCUSSING FANNIE MAE AT IRA SOHN CONF
  • Ackman: Fannie & Freddie "are more important today in the mortgage market than they've ever been"
  • *ACKMAN: BANKS NOT LIKELY TO STEP IN TO PROVIDE MORTGAGES
  • Ackman: "Owning royalty on every mortgage" is a great business
  • *ACKMAN: FANNIE, FREDDIE SHOULD BE MASSIVELY OVERCAPITALIZED
  • *ACKMAN: FANNIE, FREDDIE SHOULD CLOSE FIXED INCOME ARBITRAGE BIZ
  • *ACKMAN: FANNIE-FREDDIE SHOULD GO BACK TO GUARANTEEING MORTGAGES
  • *ACKMAN: ‘IT’S TIME TO GET OFF OUR FANNIE’’ AT IRA SOHN

*JONES: WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE WHITES OF EYES BEFORE SELLING BONDS

  •  Paul Tudor Jones: "Macro trading is about as difficult as I've ever seen it in my career,"
  • Paul Tudor Jones: "Central bank interest policy about as boring as a Jo Biden speech"
  • *TUDOR’S JONES:NEEDS MACRO DR. TO PRESCRIBE CENTRAL BANK VIAGRA
  • Jones: "If you actually knew when the fed was going to hike, what would you do?
  • Jones: "We've probably got people in this audience that were not born when the BOJ last hiked rates"
  • *JONES: FRIDAY WAS ONE OF GREATEST MACRO DAYS I CAN REMEMBER - super strong econ data, yet bonds closed up
  • Jones: "Fixed income is broadly in balance for the first 7 months of this year..." until taper

*IRA SOHN CONF CONTEST WINNER SEES FIAT HITTING EU16.50

 

Daruma's Mariko Gordon Like 3 LT "Longs: EFII, FUL, & PCRX

  • Mariko Gordon says its easier to find a unicorn than an investment edge
  • Gordon: "we've developed a really bad case of short-term-itis "
  • Gordon: "at some point the average holding period for a stock was 22 seconds."
  • Gordon: Even stock pickers have become very short term due to fear of putting foot wrong
  • *DARUMA’S GORDON LIKES ELECTRONICS FOR IMAGING AT IRA SOHN
  • *DARUMA’S GORDON HAS $60 PT ON ELECTRONICS FOR IMAGING (Dream big target $75)
  • *DARUMA’S GORDON LIKES HB FULLER
  • *DARUMA’S GORDON: HB FULLER PT IS $70, DREAM PRICE IS $90
  • *DARUMA’S GORDON LIKES PACIRA PHARMA AT IRA SOHN CONF PCRX (Target $150)

David Einhorn: "a narrow group of cool kid stocks have formed a bubble," -Short Athena Health

  • *GREENLIGHT’S EINHORN SAYS HE IS SHORT ATHENAHEALTH
  • Einhorn: AthenaHealth "caught in a bubble"
  • *EINHORN SAYS ATHENAHEALTH AT WRONG PRICE, COULD FALL 80%
  • *ATHENAHEALTH DROPS 5.5% POST-MKT
  • Einhorn: "Depending which stock you're talking about, all of them seem reasonable in relation to each other"
  • Einhorn on the bubble mentality: "As stocks rise…shares disconnect from conventional wisdom"
  • Einhorn: No conventional model can come close to justifying the cost of bubble stocks like ATHN
  • Einhorn: I do not believe "investors can value disconnected stocks using traditional measures"
  • *EINHORN: TALKING POSITIVE ABOUT EPIC SYSTEMS VS ATHENA HEALTH
  • *EINHORN: SAYS ATHENAHEALTH HAS $50/SHR VALUE AT IRA SOHN CONF
  • *EINHORN: ATHN HAS ‘SERIOUS RISKS’ TO ITS BUSINESS MODEL
  • *EINHORN: SAYS ATHENAHEALTH COULD FALL TO $14/SHR AT IRA SOHN