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The Complete Ira Sohn Conference Post-Mortem

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From 110 slides of Ackman-inspired Fannie Mae bullishness to Tudor-Jones "Central Bank Viagra", and from Jim Grant's "Buy Gazprom because it's the worst-managed company in the world" to Jeff Gundlach's housing recovery bearishness and "never seeing 1.5 million home starts ever again"... there was a little here for every bull, dick, and harry at the Ira Sohn conference. Perhaps noted behavioral psychologist said its best though: "be careful about the quality of advice you get."

 

*NOVOGRATZ: EXPECTS MAJOR RALLY IN BRAZILIAN ASSETS

  • *NOVOGRATZ SAYS BRAZIL IS SO BAD ELECTIONS WILL SEE CHANGE
  • *NOVOGRATZ SAYS ROUSSEFF WILL PROBABLY LOSE ELECTION
  • *NOVOGRATZ SAYS BRAZIL WILL HAVE TEMPORARY SPIKE IN INFLATION
  • *NOVOGRATZ SAYS HEDGE FUNDS WILL HAVE TOUGH YEAR
  • *NOVOGRATZ SAYS LOTS OF SMART MONEY, HUMAN CAPITAL ON BITCOIN
  • *NOVOGRATZ PREDICTS DEMOCRATIZATION OF FINANCE; INC. BITCOIN
  • *NOVOGRATZ SAYS BANKS WILL LOOK MORE LIKE UTILITIES
  • *NOVOGRATZ SAYS BANKS WILL BE IN LESS SEXY BUSINESSES

 

*SHUMWAY SAYS MOODY’S COULD RISE TO $80-$113/SHR AT IRA SOHN

  • *SHUMWAY CAPITAL’S SHUMWAY: UKRAINE IS BIGGEST RISK IN THE WORLD
  • *SHUMWAY: CHINA IS AN AREA OF CONCERN
  • *SHUMWAY SAYS SHORT OFFSHORE CHINA RMB SPOT AT SOHN
  • *SHUMWAY: MOODY’S IS A GREAT BUSINESS: IRA SOHN CONF

*GUNDLACH RECOMMENDS SHORTING XHB HOMEBUILDER ETF AT IRA SOHN

  • *DOUBLELINE’S GUNDLACH SAYS SINGLE FAMILIY HOUSING OVERRATED
  • *GUNDLACH SAYS HOME PURCHASES BUOYED BY CASH TRANSACTIONS
  • *GUNDLACH: SAYS IF FANNIE, FREDDIE WIND DOWN MORTGAGE RATES RISE
  • *DOUBLELINE’S GUNDLACH SAYS OWNERSHIP RATES WILL GO TO NEW LOWS: IRA SOHN
  • Gundlach: 'For the rest of my career we will never see a year of 1.5 million housing starts again.'

Dan Ariely: "We should be careful about the quality of advice we get when we have trouble evaluating it"

 

*LAFFONT SAYS LIBERTY GLOBAL COULD EASILY GO ABOVE $100/SHR

  • *COATUE’S LAFFONT SAYS GO LONG LIBERTY GLOBAL AT IRA SOHN CONF
  • *LAFFONT SAYS VALUE OF LIBERTY GLOBAL NOL IS $8B AT IRA SOHN
  • *LAFFONT SAYS VODAFONE MAY BUY LIBERTY GLOBAL
  • *LAFFONT SAYS AT&T COULD OWN A MERGED VODAFONE AND LIBERTY

*GLENVIEW'S ROBBINS SAYS HUMANA PROFITS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE

  • *GLENVIEW’S ROBBINS TO DISCUSS HUMANA, WELLPOINT, MONSANTO
  • *ROBBINS: HUMANA LIKELY TO PARTNER WITH A PBM
  • *ROBBINS: SUGGESTS MONSANTO BE LEVERED MORE LIKE PRAXAIR
  • *ROBBINS: SAYS GMOS ARE ‘HERE TO STAY’
  • *GLENVIEW'S ROBBINS SAYS FOOD AVAILABILITY REQUIRES GMOS
  • *GLENVIEW'S ROBBINS SAYS GMOS UNLOCK THE KEY TO FOOD SUPPLY
  • *GLENVIEW’S ROBBINS RECENTLY PURCHASED ENDO INTL: BLOOMBERG INTV
  • *GLENVIEW’S ROBBINS LIKE HERTZ, OWNS IT: BLOOOMBERG INTERVIEW

*POINTSTATE’S SHREIBER SAYS NET SHORT CRUDE OIL AT IRA SOHN

  • *SCHREIBER: SEES OIL GOING MUCH LOWER AT IRA SOHN
  • *SCHREIBER: SAYS GO LONG ADVANTANGED U.S. REFINERS AT IRA SOHN
  • *SCHREIBER:OVERSUPPLY OF NORTH AMERICAN CRUDE HAS YET TO BE FELT

*GRANT’S INTEREST RATE OBSERVERS’S GRANT SAYS GO LONG GAZPROM AT IRA SOHN CONFERENCE

  • Grant says "Tesla is Herbalife without Carl Icahn"
  • Grant says "Gazprom is polar opposite of Tesla"
  • Grant says "Gazprom is worst-managed company on the planet"
  • *GRANT: GAZPROM COULD CONTEMPLATE RAISING DIVIDEND: AT IRA SOHN
  • *GRANT: GAZPROM’S ‘MANY IMPERFECTIONS’ SEEM TO BE PRICED IN

*ACKMAN: FANNIE, FREDDIE WORTH $23-$47/SHR OVER TIME

  •  Bill Ackman began with 110 Slides on FNMA
  • *ACKMAN DISCUSSING FANNIE MAE AT IRA SOHN CONF
  • Ackman: Fannie & Freddie "are more important today in the mortgage market than they've ever been"
  • *ACKMAN: BANKS NOT LIKELY TO STEP IN TO PROVIDE MORTGAGES
  • Ackman: "Owning royalty on every mortgage" is a great business
  • *ACKMAN: FANNIE, FREDDIE SHOULD BE MASSIVELY OVERCAPITALIZED
  • *ACKMAN: FANNIE, FREDDIE SHOULD CLOSE FIXED INCOME ARBITRAGE BIZ
  • *ACKMAN: FANNIE-FREDDIE SHOULD GO BACK TO GUARANTEEING MORTGAGES
  • *ACKMAN: ‘IT’S TIME TO GET OFF OUR FANNIE’’ AT IRA SOHN

*JONES: WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE WHITES OF EYES BEFORE SELLING BONDS

  •  Paul Tudor Jones: "Macro trading is about as difficult as I've ever seen it in my career,"
  • Paul Tudor Jones: "Central bank interest policy about as boring as a Jo Biden speech"
  • *TUDOR’S JONES:NEEDS MACRO DR. TO PRESCRIBE CENTRAL BANK VIAGRA
  • Jones: "If you actually knew when the fed was going to hike, what would you do?
  • Jones: "We've probably got people in this audience that were not born when the BOJ last hiked rates"
  • *JONES: FRIDAY WAS ONE OF GREATEST MACRO DAYS I CAN REMEMBER - super strong econ data, yet bonds closed up
  • Jones: "Fixed income is broadly in balance for the first 7 months of this year..." until taper

*IRA SOHN CONF CONTEST WINNER SEES FIAT HITTING EU16.50

 

Daruma's Mariko Gordon Like 3 LT "Longs: EFII, FUL, & PCRX

  • Mariko Gordon says its easier to find a unicorn than an investment edge
  • Gordon: "we've developed a really bad case of short-term-itis "
  • Gordon: "at some point the average holding period for a stock was 22 seconds."
  • Gordon: Even stock pickers have become very short term due to fear of putting foot wrong
  • *DARUMA’S GORDON LIKES ELECTRONICS FOR IMAGING AT IRA SOHN
  • *DARUMA’S GORDON HAS $60 PT ON ELECTRONICS FOR IMAGING (Dream big target $75)
  • *DARUMA’S GORDON LIKES HB FULLER
  • *DARUMA’S GORDON: HB FULLER PT IS $70, DREAM PRICE IS $90
  • *DARUMA’S GORDON LIKES PACIRA PHARMA AT IRA SOHN CONF PCRX (Target $150)

David Einhorn: "a narrow group of cool kid stocks have formed a bubble," -Short Athena Health

  • *GREENLIGHT’S EINHORN SAYS HE IS SHORT ATHENAHEALTH
  • Einhorn: AthenaHealth "caught in a bubble"
  • *EINHORN SAYS ATHENAHEALTH AT WRONG PRICE, COULD FALL 80%
  • *ATHENAHEALTH DROPS 5.5% POST-MKT
  • Einhorn: "Depending which stock you're talking about, all of them seem reasonable in relation to each other"
  • Einhorn on the bubble mentality: "As stocks rise…shares disconnect from conventional wisdom"
  • Einhorn: No conventional model can come close to justifying the cost of bubble stocks like ATHN
  • Einhorn: I do not believe "investors can value disconnected stocks using traditional measures"
  • *EINHORN: TALKING POSITIVE ABOUT EPIC SYSTEMS VS ATHENA HEALTH
  • *EINHORN: SAYS ATHENAHEALTH HAS $50/SHR VALUE AT IRA SOHN CONF
  • *EINHORN: ATHN HAS ‘SERIOUS RISKS’ TO ITS BUSINESS MODEL
  • *EINHORN: SAYS ATHENAHEALTH COULD FALL TO $14/SHR AT IRA SOHN

 

 

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Mon, 05/05/2014 - 18:08 | 4729911 blindman
blindman's picture

tyler, you work too hard , and that is
impeccable advice. though i am tempted
to say "trust me", i would never presume
that. the initial statement stands on
its own.

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 20:46 | 4730393 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

Stop the presses!!!

GUNDLACH: SAYS IF FANNIE, FREDDIE WIND DOWN MORTGAGE RATES RISE

OMG THE INSIGHT!!!!

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 18:06 | 4729916 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Don't fuck with the eagles unless you know how to fly.

-Yours Truly

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 18:09 | 4729922 blindman
blindman's picture

or scrub the slime till you know digestion?

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 18:22 | 4729957 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

COHEN: INSIDER TRADING ROCKS THE CASBAH

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 18:23 | 4729960 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

Your grand child can life and extra 20-30 years by freezing there blood while they are young and useing it when they are old... a lot like money and savings. Who could have thought what was true of money is true of blood.
http://www.theguardian.com/science/video/2014/may/04/young-mice-blood-ag...
Now you know Next is what to do about it.

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 18:24 | 4729967 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

Your grand child can live an extra 20-30 years by freezing their blood while they are young and useing it when they are old... a lot like money and savings. Who could have thought what was true of money is true of blood.
http://www.theguardian.com/science/video/2014/may/04/young-mice-blood-ag...
Now you know Next is what to do about it.

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 19:06 | 4730103 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Take off and nuke the entire site from orbit.  It's the only way to be sure.

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 04:29 | 4731102 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

Fuckin A!

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 19:53 | 4730230 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

Predicting the future is an impossible task, a fools errand, full of pitfalls. Still we listen and soak in all that is said, we even spend a tremendous amount of money to gain an edge in knowing what maybe just around the corner. If you step back ten years in your mind, I suspect that things have not unfolded as you might have predicted.

When you see how the world has developed, the twist and turns are most unpredictable. Nowhere is this more apparent then in the economy, whether it is in the areas of interest rates and inflation or the rise and fall of companies. Surprise and awe, highlighted with bouts of shock is what we should expect going forward. More on this subject in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/06/predicting-future-and-hindsight-m...

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 19:59 | 4730256 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

Oh to the confident and suave television and news commentators, politicians, and the experts that speak with such authority, I include the pundits and so called specialist, to you I  say, I'm skeptical and dubious. Even when you mask your bias and your agenda is hidden, I must often remind myself that, you don't know that.

It is often not the message you put out, but how you project it. I can see you now, your head a bobbing and your arms moving all around, you state your case  with such brilliance and force that often we are swept away!

This rant below is in reference to all the pundits and so called experts, about all the words that spew from their mouths, about the reams of material they write, and the large quantity of often misstated facts they put forth.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2012/03/you-dont-know-that.html

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 23:26 | 4730821 Luckhasit
Luckhasit's picture

I'm waiting for the one day someone says in plain English "Run Forrest, Run"

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 07:30 | 4731231 esum
esum's picture

omnicient soothsayers, oracles, clowns.... how do you differentiate

how do you motivate the 1% to be capitalists when buying governments is so much easier with no risk and a better return

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