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Is This The Reason For The Relentless Treasury Bid?
Over the weekend, Bloomberg had an interesting piece about two of the main reasons why while stocks continue to rise to new all time highs, the expected selling in bonds - because in a normal world, what is good for stocks should be bad for bonds - isn't materializing, and instead earlier this morning the 10 Year tumbled to the lowest since February, while last week the 30 Year retraced 50% of its post-Taper Tantrum slide, or in short a complete disconnect between stocks and bonds.
Bloomberg's explanation was two-fold:
In a world awash with U.S. government bonds, buyers of the longest-term Treasuries are facing a potential shortage of supply.
Excluding those held by the Federal Reserve, Treasuries due in 10 years or more account for just 5 percent of the $12.1 trillion market for U.S. debt. New rules designed to plug shortfalls at pension funds may now triple their purchases of longer-dated Treasuries, creating $300 billion in extra demand over the next two years that would equal almost half the $642 billion outstanding, Bank of Nova Scotia estimates.
“It’s driven by a scarcity and liquidity valuation,” Guy Haselmann, an interest-rate strategist at Bank of Nova Scotia, one of the 22 primary dealers that trade with the Fed, said in an April 28 telephone interview from New York. “The pressure on the long-end will be for lower yields.”
Fixed-income demand has “far outpaced the supply,” Brett Cornwell, vice president of fixed-income at Callan Associates, an adviser to pension funds with $2 trillion of assets, said by telephone from San Francisco on May 1. “We should continue to see this de-risking of corporate pension plans.”
Pensions that closed deficits are pouring into Treasuries and exiting stocks to reduce volatility after a provision in the Budget Act of 2013 raised the amount underfunded plans are required to pay in insurance premiums over the next two years. It also imposed stiffer fees on those with shortfalls.
In the next 12 months alone, buying from private pensions will create $150 billion in demand for longer-maturity Treasuries, based on Bank of Nova Scotia’s estimates.
Interesting... but certainly nothing new to Zero Hedge readers. After all, we have been explaining until blue in the face for well over a year, that it is the Fed's sequestration of "high quality collateral" through trillions in QE (in effect monetizing the deficit through duration-risk exposure) and the illiquidity risks it generates that explains the Fed's eagerness to commence, and continue, tapering as the amount of available bonds to the private market has simply collapsed, especially at the longer end.
First recall from our August piece on "What The Fed Owns: Complete Treasury Holdings Breakdown"
As everyone knows (since the data is public), in the most recent week the Fed's balance sheet rose to a record $3.646 trillion, an increase of $61 billion in the past week, and a record increase of $813 billion over the past year, a whopping 30% rise in the balance sheet in 12 short months. What may not be known is the exact distribution of Fed Treasury holdings by maturity. So without further ado, here it is. Of note, observe that what once was a predominantly 'short-end' balance sheet (consisting mostly of no-coupon, money equivalent Bills), has become almost entirely a "5 and over" current coupon carry affair. Which also is why the Fed now takes over the entire bond market at a rate of 0.25% per week.
Then there was "Phantom Markets: Why The TBAC Is Suddenly Very Worried About Market Liquidity"
Perhaps the best source of real, actionable financial information, at least as sourced by Wall Street itself, comes in the form of the appendix to the quarterly Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC, aka the Goldman-JPM chaired supercommittee that really runs the world) presentation published as part of the Treasury's refunding data dump. These have informed us in the past about Goldman's view on floaters, as well as Credit Suisse's view on the massive and deteriorating shortage across "high quality collateral." This quarter was no different, only this time the indirect author of the TBAC's section on fixed-income market liquidity was none other than Citi's Matt King, whose style is well known to all who frequent these pages simply because we cover his reports consistently. The topic: liquidity. Or rather the absolute lack thereof, despite what the HFT lobby would like.
... [D]espite what various new "technology" lobbies, such as the HFT's, all of which are merely peddling legal millisecond frontrunning services, the TBAC's conclusion is the opposite: be afraid, be very afraid. Because just when you need liquidity it will be gone.
First, how does one define liquidity? Here is how the smartest guys in the room (and Matt King truly is one of the smartest guy) do:
As the chart points out, the biggest falacy constantly perpetuated by market naivists, that liquidity and volume (in this case in fixed income) are one and the same, is absolutely wrong. Of course, in equity markets it is far worse because while volumes are crashing, liquidity is far worse.
...
In other words, while the Fed, and the TBAC, both lament the scarcity of quality collateral and liquidity in non-Fed backstopped security markets, it is the Fed's continued presence in the (TSY) market in the first place, that is making a mockery of bond market liquidity and quality collateral procurement. And without faith in a stable credit marketplace, there is no way that a credit-based instrument can ever truly become the much needed "high quality collateral" to displace the Fed's monthly injection of infinitely funigble and repoable reserves (most benefiting foreign banks).
Next recall: "The Fed Now Owns One Third Of The Entire US Bond Market"
The most important chart that nobody at the Fed seems to pay any attention to, and certainly none of the economists who urge the Fed to accelerate its monetization of Treasury paper, is shown below: it shows the Fed's total holdings of the entire bond market expressed in 10 Year equivalents (because as a reminder to the Krugmans and Bullards of the world a 3 Year is not the same as a 30 Year). As we, and the TBAC, have been pounding the table over the past year (here, here and here as a sample), the amount of securities that the Fed can absorb without crushing the liquidity in the "deepest" bond market in the world is rapidly declining, and specifically now that the Fed has refused to taper, it is absorbing over 0.3% of all Ten Year Equivalents, also known as "High Quality Collateral", from the private sector every week. The total number as per the most recent weekly update is now a whopping 33.18%, up from 32.85% the week before. Or, said otherwise, the Fed now owns a third of the entire US bond market.
Recall further from: "The Fed Is Now Responsible For Monetizing A Record 70% Of All Net Bond Supply"
The following statement and chart from the RBS' Drew Brick pretty much explains it all: "QE has seen the Fed extend its dominion on the US curve away from the short-end and into longer duration paper is patent, too. On a rolling six-month average, in fact, the Fed is now responsible for monetizing a record 70% of all net supply measured in 10y equivalents. This represents a reliance on the Fed that is greater than ever before in history!"
And who can forget, from July when "expert" economists were absolutely certain there would be no tapering after the "Taper Tantrum", that "Fed Tapering Assured As Treasury Projects 30% Slide In Annual Funding (And Monetization) Needs."
As for the Pension Fund bid that too was covered in "Here Comes The Next Great Rotation: Out Of Stocks And Into Bonds":
... if the great rotation out of bonds into stocks was the story of 2013, it now appears that 2014 will see another great rotation - a mirror image one, out of stocks and back into bonds, driven on one hand, of course, by the Fed which will continue to monetize the bulk of net duration issuance for the foreseeable future, but more importantly, by some $16 trillion in corporate pension assets which after (almost) recovering their post-crisis high water market are once again, will now phase out their risky holdings in favor of safe (Treasury) exposure. As Scotiabank's Guy Haselmann explains, "The rationale is quite simply that the cost/benefit equation changes as the plans’ funding status improves. In other words, the upside for a firm with a fully-funded plan is less rewarding than for an under-funded plan."
Needless to say, the Fed, which is doing everything in its power to push marginal buyers out of a bond purchasing decision and instead to chase Ponzi risk into equities, will not be happy, especially since QE is tapering, and suddenly instead of everyone frontrunning the Fed, the momentum chasers will proceed to scramble after the largest marginal players around - pension funds, which however will be engaging in precisely the opposite behavior as the Fed!
So yes, interesting, but nothing new or surprising and certainly nothing that hasn't been known for over a year.
Which begs the question: while stocks no longer eflect anything except some momentum ignition algo in the USDJPY, and simply go along the path of least Fed resistance, even though the Fed is now actively shutting down its stock goosing machinery, if only for the time being, just like it did after QE1 and QE2 (and everyone knows what happened next), bonds at least on the surface are far more rational. Or were before central-planning.
Which is why we are disturbed - if indeed Bloomberg's report is seen as "news" for bond market managers then things are really far more broken than even we expected, and not even the bond market has any discounting capacity left. We are not that pessimistic - while stocks are merely a policy vehicle and a "report card" for the administration (since the economy's ongoing contraction has to be explained away by snowfall in the winter), the bond market is sufficiently large than not even the Fed can unilaterally dominate it. At least not yet, while the Fed holds "only" 35% of all 10 year equivalents (check back in 3-5 years when the Fed is at its SOMA limit for every CUSIP).
All that said, we agree that there is a bid for Treasurys, but we disagree that the bid is the result of either the collapse in private market supply, or the Pension unrotation - both things that have been known and priced in long ago.
What is far more likely, and what the rumor has been for the past month or so, is that none other than Japan is now allocating its own assets under management into US bonds, particularly into the 10Y+ part of the curve, just as it, together with other yield chasers, have succeeded in extracting every ounce of yield out of the Spanish bond yield, today trading at a ridiculous 2.98%, 100 bps below where it started the year.
Our only question is what type of event could force the GPIF and other fixed income asset allocators to finally stop buying bonds - because if not even the "cheerful" perspective of the US recovery, for 288K jobs certainly is that unless of course one actually reads the writing between the line, can lessen the bid (certainly facilitated by the Ukraine civil war), then we are at a loss what could halt this buying juggernaut into an asset class that the Fed and its central bank peers loathe with a passion, and are hoping will slid back to the mid-3% soon, or else the narrative about some recovery will be completely crushed.
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It's because the bond market is rigged by the fed.
I'm completely disconnected from stocks AND bonds.
what does Will I Am think about the treasury market ?
It's not Tuesday yet, what else are they going to do with today's laundry?
Debt is not money, money is money.
If the world is facing hugh demand for places to put real savings, that demand should go towards real money assets. But due to industry regulation and 100 years of FED brainwashing everthone thinks debt represents real money and parks massive amounts of real savings in debt instruments.
All this means is whenever the dollar finally breaks, it will be that much worse because the value of real savings is now tied to the value of the dollar and will get wiped out with the unpayable debts.
You said it for me, thanks.
This also means that labor produces debt, not tangibles goods or tangible savings. It's a debt merry-go-round.
...but a pH Dee professor (Bernanke) from Princeton University told me that the debt money theory works AND he has mathematical models to prove it works.
/facetious
Absent a coup or revolution or the like...rates will never go up. Stocks will not go down. PM's won't likely be a safe haven. These things must be so they will be...don't think logic; think like a criminal and only then you'll get it. Overindebted nations cannot service their debt @ market rates nor would the equity / RE / etc. markets be able to survive @ higher rates. So down, down, down we go...and these rates signify nothing but centralized control.
Why rates will only go down...
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=zMK
or this
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=zMT
Now no one buys these things with real "money"...just free digits passed around...something called monetization..."governments" issue debt that no one buys nor sells...
10yr debt below 1%
Japan 0.61%
Switzerland 0.84%
10yr debt below 2%
Sweden, Netherlands, France, Germany, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland,
10yr debt below 3%
Ireland, Spain, UK, Canada, US, Italy
10yr debt below 4%
Australia 3.86%, Portugal 3.81%
More...
New Zealand 4.38%, Greece 6%
Nothing is real....fantasyland
take a glance at US domestic ownership of the $10 T of public notes/bonds...domestic ownership of US Treasury notes/bonds (ex-Fed) @ $2 T (where it was as of '00) and constantly rolling off where Fed is buying it on the rollover...only Fed and "foreigners" (like Belgium) "buy" this stuff...fraud without a care in the world. EU LTRO handing out money for free to banks to buy bonds, US official and unofficial QE creating dollars to buy bonds from PD's...
Pensions will be underfunded...insurers, SS, and everybody holding fixed income will be made paupers...and turn to the criminals for "help"...the victim will again turn to the perpetrator and ask for "help"...
everyone is way too concerned about the pensions. once they announce Myra 2.0 which is a principal guaranteed fund that is 60% SPY and 40(% TLT with a guaranteed 7% annual return, pensions will pile in. Any differences will be made up for with property taxes which the frogs in warm water are already numb to. so relax and go play some golf hambone. check back in a decade or so when things may start getting serious.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=zMK
Fonz...look at this chart...look @ three distinct phases of Federal debt added... '80-'01, '01-'08, '08-'14...these exhibit the three phases of a clear blowoff...
without the next phase of debt there is no GDP growth...but each slowdown has seen increasingly larger deficit spending...for ever smaller GDP...
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=zO9
and now we see without budget deficit...there is no GDP growth...
Fonz, nahhh, no golf for me as we come headlong into our next '08 like crisis where rates will collapse, budget deficits hit new highs, and things get very interesting. Hard to explain what is coming to your clients cause there is no precedent in our lifetime and probably not in history...we soon enter into the greatest societal/economic/financial unknown likely since the dark ages where everything may be unwound and in need of re-defining.
yeah man even harder to explain when you screamed about it 3-4 years ago and have been made to look like a total asshole. Throw the gold smackdown on top of it and now I just shut my mouth and roll with the punches until we get tko'd.
that's all you can do...it's a fully politicized/financialized economy that prints $6.5 T to get $2.5 T GDP growth from '08 til now, it "works" for all the wrong reasons but clients expect alpha returns...or they move along to some other asshole who knows nothing and follows recommendations...so no matter what you can't save 'em. And you and I know this is 99.9% sure to go really pear shaped sooner than later...but how or when still a mystery. Agreed does you no good to be a realist (realism is the new negativism) in this situation. Just don't think and simply follow the herd with client money.
But the owners and clients of the 22 Prime Dealers of the Fed are totally "connected" to stock, bonds and USTs.
For convenience, I've added the names of foreign countries who are involved in this international banking web:
1. Bank of Nova Scotia, New York Agency - Canada
2. BMO Capital Markets Corp. - Canada
3. BNP Paribas Securities Corp. - France
4. Barclays Capital Inc. - UK
5. Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
6. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. - Saudi controlling shares
7. Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
8. Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc. - Japan
9. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. - Germany
10. Goldman, Sachs & Co.
11. HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. - UK
12. Jefferies LLC
13. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
14. Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated
15. Mizuho Securities USA Inc. - Japan
16. Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
17. Nomura Securities International, Inc. - Japan
18. RBC Capital Markets, LLC - Canada
19. RBS Securities Inc. - Scotland/UK
20. SG Americas Securities, LLC
21. TD Securities (USA) LLC - Canada
22. UBS Securities LLC - Switzerland
I'm rather surprised at some of the names that are more obscure from average people.
p.s. As I've noted many times before, Citi is majority owned/controlled by the Saudis. Also, don't forget that Canada is still part of the "Crown" -- meaning: it's owned by the City of London, not HRH QE2. And "City" = Rothschild, just so we're clear.
Bank/invest and hedge accordingly.
pps.
And by "Rothschild" I don't mean mere "national/Israeli Zionism" (with legitimate domestic/homeland ambitions for a Jewish state), but the metastasized, Satanic "Global Zionism" version, that uses "targeted leverage" to control corporations and governments, by targeting and controlling key people in positions of power and/or influence (by industry and country). These Global Zionists pose as "Jews" and even fool most Jews, but are not Jewish in their deeds and practices. In fact, many aren't even remotely Jewish or Christian, but subscribe to a particular version of Globalism: they are 'crypto-Satanists' (hidden followers of Occult beliefs and practices), that might as well be part of a space-alien culture. They are not "Alien Lizard People", as some lunatics suggest, but they might as well be -- given their psychopathic and sociopathic, cold-blooded nature. They use charm and nice, pleasing names as "do-gooder" entities, to keep the Sheeple of the world nice and calm. Metaphorically speaking, they are truly "wolves in sheep clothing" and "demons posing as angels of light". As a group, they never sleep, and they will never stop unless they are stopped by a greater force, that is equally clever & resourceful, equally organized and relentless. Ferretting them out and neutralizing them is extremely difficult, given that they've wrapped themselves in Star of David. These days, only the GZ-sponsored NeoNazis (Pravi Sektor) in Ukraine are allowed to be anti-Semitic, and even be put and kept in power with the full backing of the US Gov, its MSM and its bullied NATO/ZATO partners.
Note that having a subversive subset (GZ- Global Zionists) within a fairly homogenous population (Jews), and whose moral and religious code (esoteric parts of the Babylonian Talmud, rather than Mosaic Law), allows them to do some very unsavory things in their process toward Global Rule. These are the classic attributes and tactics of any Invasive Species - whether botanical, viral or zoological. Note that (according to the New Testament) Jesus had the exact same issue with this segment of the Jewish leadership, and why he was eventually eliminated. Overturning the tables of the Moneychangers in the Temple was not his first offense in their eyes, it was his last offense. The rest you know.
Your analysis of the tribe is inaccurate and confuses different trends from different periods. But yes, there are really just two types of Jews, one good one bad (from a global political vantage point, relatively speaking of course). Winston Churchill hit the nail on its head in his profound analysis from 1920 which I warmly suggest you (and otherzs here who make abusrd allegations on a daily basis) read, and link hereby: http://www.fpp.co.uk/bookchapters/WSC/WSCwrote1920.html
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Belgium is crowding other buyers out...
Belgium is a front for the FED and European central banks.
Everyone is looking for the peasant's blood.
It's OPM - other people's money.
Doe y o u r pension fund manager give a shit about the yield on your "account" when you are retiring in 2035 ?
i don't think my pension fund manager can even SPELL the word 'yield' !!
Yield is wishful thinking. Better teach him/her how to spell DEFAULT
Are these the pension funds that need 8% returns to meet obligations buying 30 year treasuries that pay 4%?
Yes, and SS too.
What sort of yield does the SS trust get and how big is it now? Imagine 13% of every paycheck for like 80 years plus compound interest. Now that's real money in the bank right there.
That makes my brain hurt thinking about what pensions are doing with this. The city of Omaha where I live is about to get butt slammed with the police, fire, and city pensions. They are claiming the goal is 8% return while holding a hefty percetntage of the funds in treasuries. How they hell are they making up the difference?
PS the city fund is paying more people than they have contributors, and with this bull market are losing money thanks to those payouts. My buddy recently quit working for the city and had the option to take a buyout on his money or collect 28 years from now at 65. I told him to take that money and run. Can't wait to see what the City of Omaha has to pay in to this fund from tax dollars to cover the gaps in these three pensions over the next 10 years.
Your buddy owes you a beer.....everyday.
How are they making up the difference you dare ask?
What they always do! Raise taxes, raise fees, raise levies and duties and if they can't raise anymore they just make up new shit to take more from our private sector incomes until we're bleeding from our eyeballs.
Best you can do is prepare for your day in the sun outside of their system. Stay healthy, stash away and convert into anything that holds value.
Their system is not going to sustain itself. Period. Your money will buy less and less gas and groceries and they will want even more of your money to cover their shortfalls and increased costs.
100% guaranteed.
Just one small example supporting your comment -- last week the Obama Regime annonced it wants to permit all interstate highways to be able to charge tolls. Of course, they've been stealing from the Hghway Fund for years as it is. This move will be GREAT for the economy and working people.
They have infinite ways to bleed us dry, which is exactly what they are doing.
They will bleed us dry until it's their turn to bleed.
If you buy a 10yr UST at 2.8 for example and the yield drops to 2.5% you have made (approx) 10% in appreciation. so it's not about yield. It's about derisking from stawks and locking in gains and viewing the bond market as an easier place to make money right now.
with that said, the bernakyellen wants everyone in SPY so we shall see if that works out.
It was the best of times, it was the best of times.
the maggot bankers wish. imo nobody is locking in anything. that too, is a lie. the bull case for t bonds will appear to be short lived, crater, then come back strong again. nobody has sold any equities at all. this is all about trying to pretend we have a market and praying to the greed god for some trading volume. sell in may? fuggetaboutit.
Quite the virtuous cycle - the government NEEDS to run a bigger deficit, to meet the demand for it's debt, which is being blindly bought on the anticipation of capital gains due to LOWER yield, and not for the yield itself, and the system OBVIOUSLY doesn't make sense, but at the same time it's hard to point out the actual flaw in the logic, and anyway, if you don't play along you get killed on your quarterly reporting so as a fund, you have no choice but to dive in and cross your fingers that this game can go on forever, or at least until you retire....
I wonder what will happen when these pensions can't make payments any more. Cripes just a quick google search and it looks like Omaha, again an example, needs to find over $600 million to cover pensions over the next few years. Where the fuck is a city supposed to find $600 million. Well they could shake out Warren's couch cushions, but this town needs a $1 billion EPA mandated sewer upgrade and $600+ million to fund pensions.
I just realized I need to move.
I guess every large city in 'Merica could invest everything they have in MyRA. Those returns are guaranteed.
these are not the 8% returns you are looking for.
Yes, but they don't have to hold them. Especially if some other entity were to come along and bid them up...
These people buying US bonds clearly aren't Zero Hedge readers and have their heads up their own ass!
No, if you were a careful ZH reader and had been paying attention to the articles linked above (as well as the ZH articles quoting Lacy Hunt's quarterly reports), then you would have known that buying long term treasurys would have been exactly the right strategy towards the end of 2013. 30-year treasurys are up 12% year to date, and 30-year zero coupons are up about 20%. And the implications of this article are that this rally in the long bond has further to go.
So, if The Fed holds the majority of the long end, they (and their primary dealers) can make the "price" do whatever they want...
Come on "mom and pop", jump right in, the water is fine...
The Dems have read the riot act to the Fed: No tanking the economy during any Dem political campaign or the member bankers get it good and hard. And it's always campaign season.
Lets see....the Fed set out to buy up all the treasury bonds, 85 billion a month, and now we're wondering why there's a relentless no-matter-what bid for them?
it sure seems like at 35% the fed has bought all it can buy and is now crowding out pensions/banks etc. that need UST's for collateral. Hence the reverse repo's. this also disregards the part of the article from bloomberg where it talks about insatiable foreign demand and how UST's are now a commodity (gold).
That is how much demand is out there for UST's. I'd like to hear Schiff's take on that. Anyway, all this is happening while the S&P continues to sniff 1,900. Unfuckingbelievable.
Chance of rate hikes during this millenium < 0
Chance of defaults during this millenium > 100
remember the good old days when balance sheets and financial statements mattered?
Remember "foreigners are dumping a record amount of treasuries"? Now we get Kyle Bass last night pitching USD and Pensions/Banks/Foreigners etc are at each others throats for U.S paper. This as the fed backs away from QE. I think it's officially safe to take everyone's collective opinion and throw it out the window.
how much did you pay for a gallon regular in the Spring 2012 and 2013?
how much are you paying this Spring?
how about a loaf of bread 2012 vs 2013 vs 2014?
see a trend here?
MONEY IS WORTH LESS AND LESS EACH YEAR, MONTHS, WEEK AND SOON EVERY DAY.
how is .gov supposed to keep the machines humming, the .gov fleet of cars running and so on with increased costs vs. a goal to reduce budgets?
GAME OVER
agreed completely. something has to be done to spark velocity because this is an awful combination of inflation and stagnant/decreasing wages that are crushing the real economy. this can't go on for much longer.
It worked so so for almost 40 years in the "real" economy of the former Soviet Union, ie Russia and the satellites. "Real" was whatever the propaganda channels told the people on behalf of government. It was governments firm mandate to give people the "truth" and make sure people would agree with anything government did and planned. There was only one party as opposed to two parties cut from the same cloth. Same difference, really. To make up for its own shortfalls, the Soviet government used the USA boogeyman excuse. People got wise to this eventually and ignored the "truth". They simply worked around the system and stopped participating. Instead going dark and underground. Eventually the USSR imploded.
I'm sorry to tell you this but it can go on for much much longer and as with everything else in life, the best course of action is to be among the first to recognize what is going on and understand the inability of any government to solve the underlying issues.
Unless government gets reduced by a massive amount, we're inevitably fucked. It will simply collapse under its own weight. That day is far off and in the meantime, the statists will never admit their failure and instead, try and plug holes and dilute the currency because that is all they ever learned. That is also the only thing these statists can do for their own benefit. Tough policies would hurt their own bottom line. Rest assured, they will never go there.
We are living in a Kafka'esque nightmare.
the Fed doesn't want you to have an opinion that is different from theirs.
It really does make perfect sense.
It's believable.
1) Bond scarcity. Deficit shrinks and so does issuance. Demand for bonds hasn't shrunk. The same institutions that have % allocation required in the bylaws haven't changed those bylaws. Supply falls; demand constant. The price should rise.
2) Oil is $100. It burdens everything. Low growth means no demand for loans so rates fall.
3) Equities should be ignored. There is no market. Michael Lewis laid it out, but the entirety of Wall Street has to say he's wrong. How could they not say he's wrong?
Traders have been selling the same re hypo'd oil contract back in forth since 1973 and oil hasn't collapsed?
cose the Fed can manipulate...legally!
The Fed is still ahead of the curve when it comes to their bond buying programs - POMO and the old practice of the Fed flipping the dollars they print out of thin air to the banks for their bonds sold at auction to dealers. The Dealers then take the cash and shove it in the throat of Wall Street however they want - through HFT, betting against their clients, stock buybacks, loans, etc.
It has been a faith game up until now, but as reality always does, do to 3rd dimensional constrainst of time and place, illusions always pop. Seemingly immortal men die, memes end, and hope closes.
The dollar is the crux of the House, growth constraints are the sand that it is built on. When growth goes negative -which it is about to even using the Fed's stats - the all mighty dollar will buckle, sending everything down in a cloud of dust like Building Seven.
National Monuments covered in sand....
Correct,
"Full faith and credit"
(specifically, no more faith means no more credit motherfuckers...)
Building 7 had demolition charges set before hand. What does that mean for your analogy?
Silver For The People
Lol
Bernankes- 'No we'll never monetize the debt'..... Hang this cocksucker.
They are monetizing, and then they are rolling it. Yellen is in charge of the world's largest hedge fund.
GEE soul glow is such an oracle he needs his own column here on ZH!
Off the porch!
Now that a second mind trap has opened which is better GLD OR TBT? It must be uncomfortable to stackers when TBT has a bigger deadcat than GLD or should I expand?
< meh > a gram is a gram is a gram. I am investing for the long term and bought most of the physical in the 90's. What's gold now? What will it be 20 years from now. A diverse portfolio is very important no matter what. You, or your children, do expect to live more than 20 years, don't you?
Some price between what it is now and what you payed for back in the good old days
Awesome (That's what they said to my grandfather in 1914). Thanks for confirming you stupidity, and good luck actually getting delivery once it drops below $500 an ounce troll.
If it was just Japan, the yen should be worse.
It's going to be SOOO uncomfortable for the pension funds and regulators when the perceived safety and stability of the UST market finally breaks under the pressures of reality and dstribution by the real foreign buying market. And worse, they'll be legislatively obligated to hold their positions, standing like deer in the headlights as the truck runs over them.
At this point the dollar and USTs are fighting like concussed rams to the death. Yellen is swimming with sharks whether she knows it or not. Bernanke - Greenspan even - needed to pull a Volker and jack rates up, let the stocks crash then revert - DJ 8k could have been held if this had happened - and the dollar could have found strength until the inevitable gold standard had come back. Yet now the dollar will die in the face of crashing stocks and bonds. There will be no investments left when this is over.
Except gold of course, but only in physical form. And silver - Buy silver.
I cant understand the dynamics of gold or any other commodity at the present. If you think credit is doomed than buying gold is the last FUCKIN thing I would buy considering the largest holders is slowing and the largest producer is starting a war! Neither parties monies convert into those commodities without professional assistance and each has used its assets to leverage growth and/ or start regional conflicts? Does anything from above impair dollars or American rates or its commitments to police the world? You and I support the old country and should recommit to that support BY STRENGTHING THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BY FOLDING THE REGIONALS INTO THE FRB of NEW YORK and commit to saving the world from itself?
All Nation-States are desperate. Desperate actions are never wise. All Nation-States are acting desperately. They are over leveraged, the capex on oil has never been higher, and world production has been flat for a decade. Precious metal production is in the same boat. Then there is the paper game, where all central banks have doubled the financial systems leverage over the last 5 years.
Let's ask what is the best investment going forward based on simple supply and demand. People need oil, they will need to trade for it; paper invesments are based on faith and credit, their is no more credit and when this is realized faith will be lost. No one - I repeat NO ONE - owns physical gold and silver. Gold and silver has been used as money and credit for thousands of years and still is - look no further than the Fed's own balance sheet where they are the creditors of 14k tonnes of it.
So, what is the best investment going forward?
Been saying the same shit since Volker first lowered the discount rate some 31 years ago almost to the hour congrats
what do you mean worse? That is the best part! :)
Belguim about to make a killing?
the limerick king is confused
he's feeling down and abused
tyler said bonds were dumped
fonz said he was stumped
limerick screamed "troll" and tripped over his shoes
U.S. treasuries are "High Quality Collateral"? Ha ha- Thats a good one! If you believe that one I have a myra to sell you.
monitzing the largest ponzi scheme ever divised.
It's not viable for the yield, only as a trade. The Fed is squashing me time preference the bastards.
WSJ today was in rare form with multiple articles telling you how risky bonds are, better hurry and sell them to your local broker/dealer.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142405270230457220457950169109...
I am racking my brain to go back to the first time I heard the bonds are bad meme! I remember that guy MICKY CANTER from JEFFERIES talking up bonds in 2009 and have been a giant fan since? Oh and the 667 DOW BOTTOM WAS CALLED BY SIEGAL! HE coined the recent "stocks are the only place" and MARK HAINES laughed at him and then took credit and died? CARMA
How many more social and economic challenges on the micro level will it take to affect the worlds macro? Bonds are the new gold and been that way since NIXON did us all a favor?
Soooo many articles about long rates falling.
Isn't it a nice day to put in a tweezers double top on the dailies?
Thank you very much MR. REVERE.
At least to monkeyhammer them for a bit? Any increase in dollar rates kills growth by sucking out money in all four corners of the globe? Its about to get 1997 all up in here AGAIN AND WE ARE TRYING TO SUPPRESS A WORLD REVOLT from coming IN. RIGHT NOW ITS SLOW BECAUSE WE ARE BAITING THEM IN BUT SOON TREASURIES And STOCKS TURN PARABOLIC and the world .......dies? So as we may live and see Russia and China perish under AMERICAN BOOTS!!
Because the Fed is buying the shit out of them unconstrained by fake QE timetables. They are back to the old buying in secret they have been doing for at least 40 years. And because you can't see it, it is bigger than ever. All you need to know is what would the biggest dbag lying criminal do with a printing press and thirst for power and riches. Then you know what the Fed and teh Treasury do with their banker buddies. They are printing more than ever. 100%. I promise you. Zero doubt.
The U.S. Federal Government is broke.Its' inititlement programs are all underfunded and the deficit will grow from 17.5 trillion to close to 20 trillion by the time the next election rolls around.Politicians will take the easy way out and tax mom & pop through inflation.Quiet manipulated inflation not in the present statistics.The Feds need the financing for the military spending programs as well,hence the manipulated coming drop in the stock markets and the rotation of pension fund monies into safe haven bonds.The Fed is more than hard up right now,they've got a new aircraft carrier to finance,more F35's and the huge cost in the hundreds of billions of getting the military hardware out of Afgan-Land.They can't move anything out by rail because Russia cut them off.If they get the infrastructure bank going and change the law to allow trillions of corporate profits to come back in tax free then there's a chance but right now they're dead broke from a series of wars that were all failures and have pushed the deficits to record levels.The big move back into the long bonds will suck the market dry.
Obviously Janet's plan - drive long rates back below 3%, sell off the Fed's portfolio, take a 1% commission and retire.
Where is this headed? What is the end game?
The Fed continues to reduce it's purchases as it appears the market demand is near to exceeding the supply. The Fed has trillions to offer the market without concern to profit or loss, but it's looking more and more like they can profit.
We were all concerned about what would happen when the Fed ended purchases, but now it looks like they're not getting out fast enough.
This seems like a spiral is forming that we've never experienced, where the world is awash in a excess capital liquidity supply without a means of employing this capital in anything other than debt. Where not fear but stagnation is creating a demand for government debt where all maturities approach a negative rate of return on just 2% inflation.
What happens to a world of stagflation where interest rates all have negative returns? Is it just a slow burn? Where there's no where else to go? Where your happy to borrow at short end of the curve and to invest it then in the long?
The market manipulation is so multilayered, with multi agendas, and with multi players I do not see how the central bankers keep it together. I am officially confused as an investor.