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Consumer Spending In April Identical To February And March, Gallup Finds

Tyler Durden's picture




 

So much for the post-cold-weather, pent-up demand stoked spending spree as human beings emerge from hibernation and buy-buy-buy all the food/iPads/clothes/cars they did not buy during the stormy first quarter... First, Goldman confirms that retail sales actually fell 2%, and then, more broadly, Gallup confirms that Americans' reports of daily spending in April averaged $88, virtually the same as in March ($87) and February ($87).

As Gallup reports,

Americans' reports of daily spending in April averaged $88, virtually the same as in March ($87) and February ($87).

 

 

These figures are based on Americans' self-reports of the total amount they spent "yesterday" in stores, gas stations, restaurants, or online -- not counting home and vehicle purchases, or normal monthly bills.

 

The April spending estimate can be considered a mixture of positive and negative news for the economy. On the positive side, the $88 average remains on the high end of what Gallup has measured historically, and is clearly above the depressed spending that represented the "new normal" during the recessionary and post-recessionary period of 2009 through 2012. On the negative side, the April estimate is no higher than the estimate from March 2014 or April 2013, suggesting no further growth in spending.

 

Bottom Line

 

The lack of growth in consumer spending is a concern for the U.S. economy, especially considering the effect the extreme weather in many parts of the country may have had on spending during the winter months. Perhaps more telling for the economy will be the trajectory of spending in the coming months. May and June spending estimates have usually outpaced April estimates.

Keep praying to the god of hockey-sticks that the now grossly revised down GDP for Q1 is merely setting the US up for the mother of all v-shaped recoveries (or not)...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:07 | 4731930 Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

Ahh. That explains Liesman report yesterday about 4% GDP expectations for Q2

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:28 | 4732009 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

in other news, Einhorn mentions IEX on Bloomberg and gets cut off for commercial break.  

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 12:03 | 4732122 Rubbish
Rubbish's picture

I notice even mom & pop used car lots are stuffed to the gills now with metal. Pray to the spending God and quick.

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 13:31 | 4732494 negative rates
negative rates's picture

This economy is one illness away from the graveyard.

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:09 | 4731931 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well soon enough they'll be able to blame the ongoing worsening depression on unseasonably sunny summer days at least.

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:11 | 4731948 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

"It's so nice out that all people want to do is hang out on the beach and not buy stuff!"

 

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:12 | 4731957 Obama_4_Dictator
Obama_4_Dictator's picture

LMAO

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 12:58 | 4732341 Peak Finance
Peak Finance's picture

LOLZ No Joke man!

I can go to one of the nicest beaches in the country, hang around all day swimming and stuff while the girlz play in the sand and collect their little seashells, for the cost of 6 bucks for the day parking and a few bottled waters.

New Normal! 

 

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:09 | 4731941 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Factor in real inflation and what does $88 represent in 2009 dollars?

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:15 | 4731971 pods
pods's picture

I clicked on the Gallup link to see if this was measured in constant dollars. Even if it were, the normalizing would be low due to low balling inflation. Doesn't mention anything about adjusting for inflation, so we are grinding down lower and lower.

pods

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:25 | 4731994 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Our budget is $30/day - just the two of us.  That's discretionary only.  Car, house, insurance, taxes, etc are separate.  We don't get out much and when we do, it's to buy the sales.

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:34 | 4732026 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

hahahha - you should work for the gov't.... We live on $30/day, except we only count 10% of our overall expenditures

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 14:31 | 4732777 VegasBob
VegasBob's picture

The $88 daily spending number is meaningless. It equates to annual spending of $32,120, which would require a gross annual income of about $40,000.

These days, most people don't earn anywhere near $40K per year.

Gallup should exclude the $10,000 per day spending by billionaires as statistical outliers.  The result would be a lot less than $88 a day.

Alternatively, the self-reported amounts collected by Gallup might just be LIES.  After all, Gallup says 40% of Americans are self-reported regular churchgoers, while a comprehensive analysis of actual church attendance indicates the figure is really only 18%.  So there's a lot of lying going on.

So why would anyone believe the self-reported spending figure?

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:26 | 4732002 Falling Down
Falling Down's picture

Far as I'm concerned, we've hit the crest.

These state don't break down exactly what that spending entails, so we're to assume people are spending more because of inflation.

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 12:14 | 4732159 Carl Popper
Carl Popper's picture

If Hayek and the Austrians are right about the business cycle then this cannot be stopped, but it can be fucked up even worse by messing with the process

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:10 | 4731945 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

It was the snow (that bankers snort)

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:56 | 4732100 valley chick
valley chick's picture

Those silly bankers...my May peas are right on schedule. Nothing unusual with the weather.:-) 

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:10 | 4731946 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

Tyranny up = Capitalism down

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:11 | 4731955 Obama_4_Dictator
Obama_4_Dictator's picture

*fingers in ear* "I refuse to listen, la, la, la, la, la."  - Average dumbass Amerikan.

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:13 | 4731959 Pasadena Phil
Pasadena Phil's picture

Well I DID buy more ammo. That should have helped a little.

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:20 | 4731978 Gaius Frakkin' ...
Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

I bought a nice hoe for the garden. Does that count as pent-up demand?

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:38 | 4732032 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The wife frowns on me buying a ho, so it looks like I have to take care of pent-up-demand the old fashion way.

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 12:28 | 4732223 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

The price of ho's has been deflationary.

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:13 | 4731961 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

BTW, gotta love the economists and pundits who say that snow deters consumption (and not, you know, deflating wages). Have these people not heard of "Amazon" or "The Internet"?

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:15 | 4731968 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

well,im know im spending every month....

ON PHYSICAL SILVER...

FUCK YOU OLE'YELLEN AND

so long you suckers.........

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:17 | 4731974 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Seen a sudden spike in HARPEX suggesting high level of finished products going out the door (to somewhere) and then a flatline. The April pop occured....the question will be, does anyone actuall buy? Seems retail is expecting the consumer to show up...and it could also be tax return pop.... May will be very interesting. Considering todays Redbook (slight rise) and W/W sales (slight drop), this could turn out to be a very muted month.

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:18 | 4731980 ChargingHandle
ChargingHandle's picture

Does higher healthcare costs push daily spending down? I now pay over $900 per month to insure my family. Since wages have been flat for nearly all Americans the last 5 years,  cuts have to be made somewhere. 

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:32 | 4731984 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That fact that weather impacts the overall spending is pure bullshit. If there is a storm coming then people rush to the stores and empty the shelves pulling  spending forward. Once the storm is passed people want to get out and shake off the cabin fever. In the end it becomes a wash. The truth is nobody has any fucking money...period.  The velocity of "money" tells you what you need to know:

 

 http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V/

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:28 | 4731986 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

That GDP chart already looks like an "upside down hockey stick".

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:23 | 4731991 starman
starman's picture

Im shooting for $88.50 for May. 

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:27 | 4732006 unplugged
unplugged's picture

yet more establishment "statistics" - good one! - hahahaha !!!

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:32 | 4732017 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

So I guess weather wasn't an impact after all..... and Easter was late this year... No Easter bunny bump!  

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:32 | 4732022 youngman
youngman's picture

If you bought one pound of coffee at 10$ a pound..and now its 15$ a pound but still spent the same amount....you are buying less....its like the stock buybacks all the companies are doing..the EPS looks good..but its fewer stock shares that pump it up....

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:32 | 4732024 Spungo
Spungo's picture

So..... new all time highs?

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:39 | 4732040 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

I guess this is wht the Federal Reserve stooge Fisher was talking about when he said the economy was picking up.

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:50 | 4732085 Carl Popper
Carl Popper's picture

Buy bulk beans and rice

Shop at resale shops

Thrift is virtue and it starves the beast as long as you do not save in fiat.  The beast eats your fiat surreptitiously thru inflation

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 13:35 | 4732512 negative rates
negative rates's picture

So ur sayin we should just starve the spare tire off the average American citizen?

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:52 | 4732094 agstacks
agstacks's picture

I think this is to be expected. Farmer's Almanac has put out a report that this summer will be very hot and humid and we may see more drought conditions.  Then hurricane season will be right behind it- that is also expected to be unusually bad this year.  It's unfortunate too, because it is clear the average consumer has plenty to spend, they just cannot find a nice day to get outside and do so.  Until we can get some tough carbon regulations the weather will remain extreme and we shouldn't expect any growth until we rein in the polluters! (or at least collect a hefty tax from them for the privilege of polluting.)

I think I heard Reid promise that all the tax revenue from a carbon tax would go directly towards paying down the federal debt. I don't see any reason to not believe The Honorable Mr. Reid. 

/s

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 12:42 | 4732270 Jlasoon
Jlasoon's picture

Reid should be worried about Vegas. Every damn hotel has instituted a dreaded Resort Fee. In some cases you're looking at $30 a night for the privilege of using the hotel landline and bible. Have to make up for the occupancy rates somehow I guess. 

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 14:34 | 4732792 VegasBob
VegasBob's picture

I was thinking about visiting friends in Vegas (I used to live in Vegas) and saw those absurd resort fees.  So I shrugged and said to myself: "Fukkit! I wont go."

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:55 | 4732098 Mi Naem
Mi Naem's picture

"Consumer Spending In April Identical To February And March"

People are still really cold from that devastating winter weather. 

May sales should be up.  Yep, that's the ticket. 

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 11:59 | 4732117 JRobby
JRobby's picture

If you are living a hand to mouth existence are you still counted as a consumer?

What about all that stuff I sold at the garage sale to for pay utilities and food?

So many questions 

 

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 12:05 | 4732126 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Office Depot to close 400 stores.

Demand is growing faster than they can close stores apparently?

http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20140506&id=17589434

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 12:26 | 4732214 Caracalla
Caracalla's picture

Looks like the $$$$ is breaking down today (79.14 last I checked)  With the economy improving and stocks rising, what's up with that?

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 12:34 | 4732248 johnjkiii
johnjkiii's picture

The trappd Fed will wait another quarter to declare the newest QE, # 967, which will be a combination of operation twist, re-reversed repo's and buying stocks. The market will rise and everybody will laugh.

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 12:49 | 4732296 Falling Down
Falling Down's picture

We just need a healthy hurricane to scream through the Gulf right about, oh, August time. If the economy hasn't crashed yet by then.

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 12:57 | 4732338 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

I heard yesterday that 80-90% of all GM car sales is now sub-prime car loans.  What could go wrong with that?

(I have yet to confirm this from another source, but I wouldn't doubt it in the least)

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 12:59 | 4732348 Obama_4_Dictator
Obama_4_Dictator's picture

It's true I heard that from Peter Stansbarry 

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 13:00 | 4732360 Obama_4_Dictator
Obama_4_Dictator's picture

Also, fastest growing business in America is...wait for it.....Rent to own furniture stores....middle class is done, tapped out.....

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 21:55 | 4734535 Lone_Star
Lone_Star's picture

Last summer while looking into the OM parts supplier for GM, one of the filings stated that it was already at around 40% subprime loans.

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 13:17 | 4732413 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

If it were not for the Free Student 'Never-Pay-Back' Loan money from students buying Jason Beeper CDs, and the FSA spending on Fast Food, consumer spending would be 90% lower.

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 13:21 | 4732443 BeerMe
BeerMe's picture

So far May is off to a decent start.  Though in the end I'm not sure it will end up much better than April.  I certainly don't buy current sales as "pent-up demand."  If the month stays good it just gives me a better opportunity to prepare.

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 14:41 | 4732832 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

I helped the consumer spending numbers by purchasing an assault rifle.

Tue, 05/06/2014 - 19:27 | 4734066 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

The area we should pay more attention to is how the different sectors of the economy dependent on discretionary spending fared. I contend a shift is occurring within the ranks of shoppers and consumers that is causing the little economic growth occurring to be the "wrong kind of growth" and not healthy over the long term.

Recent job numbers create a false illusion that mask over what is really happening as incomes grind to a halt and inflation nibbles at the buying power of the average American. In my opinion the wrong people are buying the wrong things. Auto sales, student loans, and healthcare spending have become key drivers in this economy. Below I reconcile the recent job numbers and why spending trends signal danger ahead.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/reconciling-april-jobs-report-wit...

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