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Consumer Spending In April Identical To February And March, Gallup Finds
So much for the post-cold-weather, pent-up demand stoked spending spree as human beings emerge from hibernation and buy-buy-buy all the food/iPads/clothes/cars they did not buy during the stormy first quarter... First, Goldman confirms that retail sales actually fell 2%, and then, more broadly, Gallup confirms that Americans' reports of daily spending in April averaged $88, virtually the same as in March ($87) and February ($87).
Americans' reports of daily spending in April averaged $88, virtually the same as in March ($87) and February ($87).
These figures are based on Americans' self-reports of the total amount they spent "yesterday" in stores, gas stations, restaurants, or online -- not counting home and vehicle purchases, or normal monthly bills.
The April spending estimate can be considered a mixture of positive and negative news for the economy. On the positive side, the $88 average remains on the high end of what Gallup has measured historically, and is clearly above the depressed spending that represented the "new normal" during the recessionary and post-recessionary period of 2009 through 2012. On the negative side, the April estimate is no higher than the estimate from March 2014 or April 2013, suggesting no further growth in spending.
Bottom Line
The lack of growth in consumer spending is a concern for the U.S. economy, especially considering the effect the extreme weather in many parts of the country may have had on spending during the winter months. Perhaps more telling for the economy will be the trajectory of spending in the coming months. May and June spending estimates have usually outpaced April estimates.
Keep praying to the god of hockey-sticks that the now grossly revised down GDP for Q1 is merely setting the US up for the mother of all v-shaped recoveries (or not)...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Ahh. That explains Liesman report yesterday about 4% GDP expectations for Q2
in other news, Einhorn mentions IEX on Bloomberg and gets cut off for commercial break.
I notice even mom & pop used car lots are stuffed to the gills now with metal. Pray to the spending God and quick.
This economy is one illness away from the graveyard.
Well soon enough they'll be able to blame the ongoing worsening depression on unseasonably sunny summer days at least.
"It's so nice out that all people want to do is hang out on the beach and not buy stuff!"
LMAO
LOLZ No Joke man!
I can go to one of the nicest beaches in the country, hang around all day swimming and stuff while the girlz play in the sand and collect their little seashells, for the cost of 6 bucks for the day parking and a few bottled waters.
New Normal!
Factor in real inflation and what does $88 represent in 2009 dollars?
I clicked on the Gallup link to see if this was measured in constant dollars. Even if it were, the normalizing would be low due to low balling inflation. Doesn't mention anything about adjusting for inflation, so we are grinding down lower and lower.
pods
Our budget is $30/day - just the two of us. That's discretionary only. Car, house, insurance, taxes, etc are separate. We don't get out much and when we do, it's to buy the sales.
hahahha - you should work for the gov't.... We live on $30/day, except we only count 10% of our overall expenditures
The $88 daily spending number is meaningless. It equates to annual spending of $32,120, which would require a gross annual income of about $40,000.
These days, most people don't earn anywhere near $40K per year.
Gallup should exclude the $10,000 per day spending by billionaires as statistical outliers. The result would be a lot less than $88 a day.
Alternatively, the self-reported amounts collected by Gallup might just be LIES. After all, Gallup says 40% of Americans are self-reported regular churchgoers, while a comprehensive analysis of actual church attendance indicates the figure is really only 18%. So there's a lot of lying going on.
So why would anyone believe the self-reported spending figure?
Far as I'm concerned, we've hit the crest.
These state don't break down exactly what that spending entails, so we're to assume people are spending more because of inflation.
If Hayek and the Austrians are right about the business cycle then this cannot be stopped, but it can be fucked up even worse by messing with the process
It was the snow (that bankers snort)
Those silly bankers...my May peas are right on schedule. Nothing unusual with the weather.:-)
Tyranny up = Capitalism down
*fingers in ear* "I refuse to listen, la, la, la, la, la." - Average dumbass Amerikan.
Well I DID buy more ammo. That should have helped a little.
I bought a nice hoe for the garden. Does that count as pent-up demand?
The wife frowns on me buying a ho, so it looks like I have to take care of pent-up-demand the old fashion way.
The price of ho's has been deflationary.
BTW, gotta love the economists and pundits who say that snow deters consumption (and not, you know, deflating wages). Have these people not heard of "Amazon" or "The Internet"?
Expect May to change that https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=logarithmic&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1399406400000&chddm=1090&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NYSEARCA:USO&cmptdms=0&q=NYSEARCA:SPY&&fct=big&ei=dvpoU4j2OcnOrQHsTQ
well,im know im spending every month....
ON PHYSICAL SILVER...
FUCK YOU OLE'YELLEN AND
so long you suckers.........
Seen a sudden spike in HARPEX suggesting high level of finished products going out the door (to somewhere) and then a flatline. The April pop occured....the question will be, does anyone actuall buy? Seems retail is expecting the consumer to show up...and it could also be tax return pop.... May will be very interesting. Considering todays Redbook (slight rise) and W/W sales (slight drop), this could turn out to be a very muted month.
Does higher healthcare costs push daily spending down? I now pay over $900 per month to insure my family. Since wages have been flat for nearly all Americans the last 5 years, cuts have to be made somewhere.
That fact that weather impacts the overall spending is pure bullshit. If there is a storm coming then people rush to the stores and empty the shelves pulling spending forward. Once the storm is passed people want to get out and shake off the cabin fever. In the end it becomes a wash. The truth is nobody has any fucking money...period. The velocity of "money" tells you what you need to know:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V/
That GDP chart already looks like an "upside down hockey stick".
Im shooting for $88.50 for May.
yet more establishment "statistics" - good one! - hahahaha !!!
So I guess weather wasn't an impact after all..... and Easter was late this year... No Easter bunny bump!
If you bought one pound of coffee at 10$ a pound..and now its 15$ a pound but still spent the same amount....you are buying less....its like the stock buybacks all the companies are doing..the EPS looks good..but its fewer stock shares that pump it up....
So..... new all time highs?
I guess this is wht the Federal Reserve stooge Fisher was talking about when he said the economy was picking up.
Buy bulk beans and rice
Shop at resale shops
Thrift is virtue and it starves the beast as long as you do not save in fiat. The beast eats your fiat surreptitiously thru inflation
So ur sayin we should just starve the spare tire off the average American citizen?
I think this is to be expected. Farmer's Almanac has put out a report that this summer will be very hot and humid and we may see more drought conditions. Then hurricane season will be right behind it- that is also expected to be unusually bad this year. It's unfortunate too, because it is clear the average consumer has plenty to spend, they just cannot find a nice day to get outside and do so. Until we can get some tough carbon regulations the weather will remain extreme and we shouldn't expect any growth until we rein in the polluters! (or at least collect a hefty tax from them for the privilege of polluting.)
I think I heard Reid promise that all the tax revenue from a carbon tax would go directly towards paying down the federal debt. I don't see any reason to not believe The Honorable Mr. Reid.
/s
Reid should be worried about Vegas. Every damn hotel has instituted a dreaded Resort Fee. In some cases you're looking at $30 a night for the privilege of using the hotel landline and bible. Have to make up for the occupancy rates somehow I guess.
I was thinking about visiting friends in Vegas (I used to live in Vegas) and saw those absurd resort fees. So I shrugged and said to myself: "Fukkit! I wont go."
"Consumer Spending In April Identical To February And March"
People are still really cold from that devastating winter weather.
May sales should be up. Yep, that's the ticket.
If you are living a hand to mouth existence are you still counted as a consumer?
What about all that stuff I sold at the garage sale to for pay utilities and food?
So many questions
Office Depot to close 400 stores.
Demand is growing faster than they can close stores apparently?
http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20140506&id=17589434
Looks like the $$$$ is breaking down today (79.14 last I checked) With the economy improving and stocks rising, what's up with that?
The trappd Fed will wait another quarter to declare the newest QE, # 967, which will be a combination of operation twist, re-reversed repo's and buying stocks. The market will rise and everybody will laugh.
We just need a healthy hurricane to scream through the Gulf right about, oh, August time. If the economy hasn't crashed yet by then.
I heard yesterday that 80-90% of all GM car sales is now sub-prime car loans. What could go wrong with that?
(I have yet to confirm this from another source, but I wouldn't doubt it in the least)
It's true I heard that from Peter Stansbarry
Also, fastest growing business in America is...wait for it.....Rent to own furniture stores....middle class is done, tapped out.....
Last summer while looking into the OM parts supplier for GM, one of the filings stated that it was already at around 40% subprime loans.
If it were not for the Free Student 'Never-Pay-Back' Loan money from students buying Jason Beeper CDs, and the FSA spending on Fast Food, consumer spending would be 90% lower.
So far May is off to a decent start. Though in the end I'm not sure it will end up much better than April. I certainly don't buy current sales as "pent-up demand." If the month stays good it just gives me a better opportunity to prepare.
I helped the consumer spending numbers by purchasing an assault rifle.
The area we should pay more attention to is how the different sectors of the economy dependent on discretionary spending fared. I contend a shift is occurring within the ranks of shoppers and consumers that is causing the little economic growth occurring to be the "wrong kind of growth" and not healthy over the long term.
Recent job numbers create a false illusion that mask over what is really happening as incomes grind to a halt and inflation nibbles at the buying power of the average American. In my opinion the wrong people are buying the wrong things. Auto sales, student loans, and healthcare spending have become key drivers in this economy. Below I reconcile the recent job numbers and why spending trends signal danger ahead.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/reconciling-april-jobs-report-wit...